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Hard times coming on the Northern Gulf Coast

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DoomsDave

@AnTonY, let's pray the records aren't matched. Any graphs that show what the numbers are from those old times? I'm curious to see.

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AnTonY

@DoomsDave, for instance, Houston, looking at records, temperatures in the teens weren't very uncommon during the late 1800s and 1900s: saw them once every couple of years. Since January of 1996, there hasn't been a temp below 20F at the official airport. Hobby hasn't seen teens since the 1989 freeze. 

I mention the dichotomy because I noticed that the West seemed to get more action in cold spells during the 1800s: apparently, even the Bay Area saw relatively frequent snowfalls. Since then, most major US cold snaps have come in the form of a cold East, and a simultaneously warm West.

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DoomsDave
20 minutes ago, AnTonY said:

@DoomsDave, for instance, Houston, looking at records, temperatures in the teens weren't very uncommon during the late 1800s and 1900s: saw them once every couple of years. Since January of 1996, there hasn't been a temp below 20F at the official airport. Hobby hasn't seen teens since the 1989 freeze. 

I mention the dichotomy because I noticed that the West seemed to get more action in cold spells during the 1800s: apparently, even the Bay Area saw relatively frequent snowfalls. Since then, most major US cold snaps have come in the form of a cold East, and a simultaneously warm West.

Yes, cold east and warm west has been the pattern I can remember for the past 40 years.

Maybe Houston's higher temps are part of urban heat island phenomenon?

 

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Ed in Houston
2 hours ago, DoomsDave said:

@AnTonY, let's pray the records aren't matched. Any graphs that show what the numbers are from those old times? I'm curious to see.

Here is a graph from the February 1899 cold outbreak where 0F temperatures reached nearly to the gulf coast.

https://dsx.weather.com//util/image/w/feb-1899-coldest-lows-map.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0

Ed in Houston

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TexasColdHardyPalms

27.4 currently at home with most of DFW warmer than Houston oddly enough. Lots of 26's all inside the loop and 28.4 in texas City and 30.1 in Galveston. 

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Xerarch

Oh my goodness and the forecast keeps dropping, Houston now showing 19 for tomorrow morning and when I checked just hours ago it was 20. 

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AnTonY
3 hours ago, DoomsDave said:

Yes, cold east and warm west has been the pattern I can remember for the past 40 years.

Maybe Houston's higher temps are part of urban heat island phenomenon?

 

To an extent. UHI certainly is a factor, but it also blends in with the general water moderation down south-shore of Galveston Bay, to Galveston. Central Houston temperatures have only reached low 20s five times from 1990 onwards, and temps in this corridor have been around that line. 2010 was the closest call thus far.

Now, places farther north/inland in Greater Houston have seen teens more recently, especially rural areas. Many of these places saw teens during 2010. Quite a few in the north saw teens last year during the one cold snap.

 

 

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AnTonY
1 hour ago, Xerarch said:

Oh my goodness and the forecast keeps dropping, Houston now showing 19 for tomorrow morning and when I checked just hours ago it was 20. 

One just has to hope for the best. The urban heat island, along with places on the bay/Galveston have the best chance of avoiding teens.

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TexasColdHardyPalms

I warned you guys about this. Major carnage in store for Houston as all but the city center will be in the teens.

Tyler is getting killed, 17-19f already so they could legitimatly hit single digits. 

DFW heat island in full effect as illustrated.  Core is 4-7degrees warmer than rural areas.  Stress test for everything tonight. 

 

20180116_212427.jpg

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stone jaguar

Good luck there. Have a buddy in Tyler with lots of aloes, agaves and Mexican cycads that must be pretty upset about these dreadful temps for tropicals and subtropicals. Dunno if you folks can use smudge pots anymore, but...

As many here know, it is not touch and go low temps that wreck things permanently, but rather prolonged periods of unrelenting sub 30s F.

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topwater

Here, it just warmed up to 29 from 28F.  Yee hah.  Maybe the worst is done?

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Palm crazy

This is getting Serious for you all.... lots foliage set back for sure. Hopefully, your tender palms/plants will recover. 

This map is from 6:45 my time. Hate to look in the morning. :(

 

actchill_1280x720.jpg

Edited by Palm crazy
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stone jaguar

Sole upside would be less forum saturation of threads on SE Texas coconuts?

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TexasColdHardyPalms
3 minutes ago, stone jaguar said:

Sole upside would be less forum saturation of threads on SE Texas coconuts?

More room for california and european coconuts!!!!

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stone jaguar

More room for “anything but” coconuts...

Seriously, there will probably be almost 3,000 palm species by the time taxonomists finish with the Neotropics, Malesia and Malagasy. I like cocos as much as the next bloke, but they do seem to make their presence felt here from marginal locations (and I’m being generous) just a bit much.

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AnTonY
1 hour ago, topwater said:

Here, it just warmed up to 29 from 28F.  Yee hah.  Maybe the worst is done?

There typically should be some low level warming to bump temps a bit now that the storm has passed on east. The longer the clouds hold on, the less the damage.

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AnTonY

Quite hard to tell whether the cold is due to the overrunning with moisture (clouds that prevent warm up), or if the air mass is just that cold.

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TexasColdHardyPalms

Almost all of Houston is 18-21 right now. Austin is almost completely 15-18. Lots of 14-16 in South LA and New Orleans french quarter is 19-20. Havent seen that happen in a long time. 

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westbay

It's 26 degrees right now in Galveston West Beach. It will be a total of around 12+ hours below freezing. The winter following Hurricane Ike there was a long freeze period. I lost the spear on my very large Bismarkia and Queens palms. That's when I joined the Palm Society. I asked how to try and save these specimens and a member recommended cleaning out the center as well as I could and pouring a bottle of Hydrogen peroxide in the hole, and voila! they both survived.

I hope if  we have damage it works again. BTW our Norfolk Pines lost their tops but survived as well. 

Good luck to everyone on the coast,

westbay

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Tropicdoc

This will be a total reset year for me 17 here may not get above freezing all day. Not many palms can survive that. This is the coldest it has gotten here in 7 years of palm growing. And it’s on the heels of a snow in early December and then 5 freezing nights in a row in early January. Wipe the slate..... start over. Pray for a 15 year warm run

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westbay

Some may make it Doc. I just left mine alone for a couple of months. It was March before the Bismarkia lost the spear. The peroxide worked. It's worth a try.

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meteorologistpalmguy

19 at Houston IAH is the coldest it has been since 1996 (plenty of colder readings around town and suburbs).  If we can fall one more degree in the next hour it will be the coldest Houston has seen since the epic 1989 freeze.

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meteorologistpalmguy
7 hours ago, AnTonY said:

Quite hard to tell whether the cold is due to the overrunning with moisture (clouds that prevent warm up), or if the air mass is just that cold.

One of the main reasons we saw Houston considerably colder than Dallas yesterday was the wet bulb effect.  Basically we were moving in a ton of dry air close to the surface from the north (dewpoints were in the lower teens).   Further aloft we were saturated and precipitating, so as this precipitation fell through the drier air closer to the surface, it would partially evaporate, which essentially continues to cool the air.   With no precipitation further to the north, there was no wet bulb effect, and thus warmer temperatures.   

Add the skies clearing out quickly yesterday evening and the stage was set for this terrible cold.  Lets just be thankful we kept a puff of wind going through the night or we would have likely fallen to right near the current dewpoint (~10 degrees in Houston).

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Ed in Houston

Coldest temperatures along much of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico area since 1989. The maximum deviation from average looks to be the area from Houston over to New Orleans.

1_17_18.thumb.jpg.afa17b16edbd98f97e6bbf

 

Hobby Airport in S.E. Houston set a record for the date at 20F with a wind chill of 6F, eclipsing the previous record of 23F set in 1965.

hobby.thumb.jpg.7fe29516d964994d62c5affc

 

The temperatures across Houston are mostly on the upper teens. I happen to be in a "toasty" area at 22F in far S.E. Houston toward Galveston Bay.

WUtemps.thumb.jpg.9127423d421e19dc3a40b8

 

Many palms like Queens will be damaged with younger and less strong plants possibly killed. Ubiquitous palms like pygmies dates will be largely wiped out unless they were protected. Even Washingtonia robusta will be damaged. Chinese fan palms may struggle.

The good news is that winter is half over. Or is that the bad news.

Ed in Houston

 

 

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AnTonY

@meteorologistpalmguy, so yep, just a setup from the overrunning. Happens with strange ease over TX, especially given Mexico's mountains that should dry out the moisture.

Temps were mostly about the same as Dallas, not really colder, though.

Edited by AnTonY

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ntxpalms
On 1/16/2018, 2:26:42, Ed in Houston said:

Here is a graph from the February 1899 cold outbreak where 0F temperatures reached nearly to the gulf coast.

https://dsx.weather.com//util/image/w/feb-1899-coldest-lows-map.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0

Ed in Houston

Saw on Wunderground this morning lots of 19-20 degree readings inside 610 in Houston and 21-23 around Galveston and Crystal Beach. Teens in LA, MS and AL. Surprised to see 19 in the French Quarter. Anyone got CIDP or W robusta survivors in that kind of cold?  Anyone in Mobile?

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Tropicdoc
23 hours ago, Palm crazy said:

This is getting Serious for you all.... lots foliage set back for sure. Hopefully, your tender palms/plants will recover. 

This map is from 6:45 my time. Hate to look in the morning. :(

 

actchill_1280x720.jpg

Notice how the point of dark purple points at south Louisiana?

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nitsua0895
29 minutes ago, ntxpalms said:

Saw on Wunderground this morning lots of 19-20 degree readings inside 610 in Houston and 21-23 around Galveston and Crystal Beach. Teens in LA, MS and AL. Surprised to see 19 in the French Quarter. Anyone got CIDP or W robusta survivors in that kind of cold?  Anyone in Mobile?

I'm in Montgomery and we got 3 inches of snow with a low of 15F(wind chill of 1F) this morning. All of my palms are wrapped except form my Butia odorata and it's already showing damage. I thought Butias were bulletproof here which is really disappointing. Hopefully there won't be much damage to the spear.

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ntxpalms

We had 100 hours below freezing here in 2011, including 2 nights at 14 and the Butias pulled through, and so did most W filiferas, and the Sabals.  Last night we bottomed out at 12. I am in Dallas. 

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TexasColdHardyPalms

There are several trunking pre 2011 canaries and livistona chilensis in DFW that will make it through this winter as well.  My dated are burned again but will survive without too much issue. 

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ntxpalms

My filiferas survived 2011, as did my Sabals, Windmills and a blue Med Fan Palm that never shows cold damage, while the green MFP fried. Would love to have a CIDP in the ground. A guy in Pensacola sent me seed from 100 year old trees (per him) around their courthouse,but none survived. Where are CIDPs growing in DFW?

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TexasColdHardyPalms
12 minutes ago, ntxpalms said:

My filiferas survived 2011, as did my Sabals, Windmills and a blue Med Fan Palm that never shows cold damage, while the green MFP fried. Would love to have a CIDP in the ground. A guy in Pensacola sent me seed from 100 year old trees (per him) around their courthouse,but none survived. Where are CIDPs growing in DFW?

A few big ones on i30 south of interstate by a lowes west of dallas. A few big ones in back yards in mansfield as they have been selling them at lowes for the last 10 years. I have seen many others while out delivering in the metroplex as well. 

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ntxpalms

Great. After 2011, the robustas and cidp in Collin County were gone. We had some tall robustas, or maybe they were filibustas, in Plano prior to 2011. We still have some 20’ filiferas and Sabals around Plano. Hope they make it through this winter. There are some really nice Chinese fan palms around a building off I-35 north of downtown Dallas. Think they’ll survive this winter? Don’t know how cold hardy they are. 

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TexasColdHardyPalms
27 minutes ago, ntxpalms said:

Great. After 2011, the robustas and cidp in Collin County were gone. We had some tall robustas, or maybe they were filibustas, in Plano prior to 2011. We still have some 20’ filiferas and Sabals around Plano. Hope they make it through this winter. There are some really nice Chinese fan palms around a building off I-35 north of downtown Dallas. Think they’ll survive this winter? Don’t know how cold hardy they are. 

Livistona chilensis is far more bud hardy than robusta.  Slightly less leaf hardy, so yes they will make it. 

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Palm crazy
14 hours ago, TexasColdHardyPalms said:

Livistona chilensis is far more bud hardy than robusta.  Slightly less leaf hardy, so yes they will make it. 

I'll say when it hit 15F here before L. chilensis always had a solid spear, but the foliage was all toast. One hardy palm. Last year at 21F the foliage that faces the wind was fried but the other side had perfect leaves. 

Edited by Palm crazy

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TexasColdHardyPalms
1 hour ago, Palm crazy said:

I'll say when it hit 15F here before L. chilensis always had a solid spear, but the foliage was all toast. One hardy palm. Last year at 21F the foliage that faces the wind was fried but the other side had perfect leaves. 

I talking about palms with 5-6' of trunk.  Smaller ones spear pull for sure. 

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Palm crazy
46 minutes ago, TexasColdHardyPalms said:

I talking about palms with 5-6' of trunk.  Smaller ones spear pull for sure. 

Mine aren't that big, but I have never had spear pull I think because I grow mine with an overhead canopy. Recovery of mine only produces two-three new leaves a year. You guys got the heat they love. I've been thinking about taking mine out and replacing with something different, next time we get really cold I might just plant it in a container. 

Edited by Palm crazy

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mdsonofthesouth
50 minutes ago, TexasColdHardyPalms said:

I talking about palms with 5-6' of trunk.  Smaller ones spear pull for sure. 

 

10 minutes ago, Palm crazy said:

Mine aren't that big, but I have never had spear pull I think because I grow mine with an overhead canopy. Recovery of mine only produces three new leaves a year. You guys got the heat they love. I've been thinking about taking mine out and replacing with something different, next time we get really cold I might. 

 My livistona chineneses has seen several high teens and even 15F as a clump with maybe 1-6in of trunk between all the palms and the only thing thats happened is defoliation. No spears pulled....yet, but Ill hold off from making a full comment for another month when spring comes. Granted its placed about 2 ft from the house and a cement slab. Sadly its on the NW side of the house...rookie mistake! But it is mulched a decent amount and has rope lights on top of the root area. Ill say if it comes back Ill be a fan of my clump, as the time spent bellow freezing it has done without pull amazes me! but still a month or so to go!

Edited by mdsonofthesouth

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