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LF-TX

Bad news for Brownsville

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LF-TX

Forecast not looking good for Texas...

77891282-1AB8-4CE6-A170-60259648E436.png

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TexasColdHardyPalms

This cold will push deep into Mexico just like the last big front but the trajectory looks to be more to the east which means that Louisianna will have a major impact as well.

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LF-TX
10 minutes ago, TexasColdHardyPalms said:

This cold will push deep into Mexico just like the last big front but the trajectory looks to be more to the east which means that Louisianna will have a major impact as well.

Not that I want this cold to jeopardize others, but I hope the bulk of this thing gets a bit farther away! It’s a little too close for comfort. Lol

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enigma99

Now showing a low of 33 for the 2nd. It always amazes me when it gets that cold that far south. That's about the same as Miami, the only difference is that there is no protection.

Edited by enigma99

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LF-TX
51 minutes ago, enigma99 said:

Now showing a low of 33 for the 2nd. It always amazes me when it gets that cold that far south. That's about the same as Miami, the only difference is that there is no protection.

It’s quite upsetting! At first it was only Monday and Tuesday where we would have lows in the 30s, but now we’ve got Wednesday included as well! Not to mention that highs aren’t even going to get out of the 40s! Tuesday is threatening to not even come out of the 30s! And a finishing blow: it’s going to be wet and drizzly as well! This is going to be on the Valley’s infamous wet, blue northers. Crossing my fingers that we’ll be spared a hard freeze and too much rain in the lower Valley. Our tropicals aren’t going to like this at all. Considering bringing my young cocos indoors instead of leaving them sheltered outside. 

 

Miami is quite fortunate enough to be surrounded by water, if not, perhaps it would be in the same situation as Brownsville. Would do anything to have their forecast!

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TexasColdHardyPalms

We now have lows of 17,19 and 20 with 48 hours below freezing forecasted. A lot of it will depend on cloud cover and if one of those nights are clear we could easily shave off another 3-4 degrees. All of this spells bad news for everyone 0-550 miles south of us. 

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AnTonY

The way some of these winter discrepancies between TX and Florida happen, it's as if there's more to it than just FL's water moderation. Like, we're talking all of TX in the 40s, while all of Florida except the Panhandle is basically in full on summer. There's flat out no cold-front passage, let alone a moderated passage: the fronts basically hang up at the peninsula.

And when they do pass in FL? They come with little fan-fare often; the rain gets the move on. Meanwhile in TX, too many of these frontal passages bring long, drawn out rainy/cloud periods...whether from preceding warm flow, or from post-frontal overrun periods. These overrun periods are the reason why TX has more "wet gloomy winter days" than FL does. Seeing that the moisture responsible for overrun often comes from the SW, courtesy of the subtropical jet (which has been unusually active given Nina conditions), it's actually strange for TX to have so much of these cold cloudy days: two mountain ranges in Mexico + desert in between should be more than enough to strip the moisture. Quite strange that FL doesn't have much, as there is a warm Gulf of Mexico to the SW... 

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LF-TX
5 hours ago, AnTonY said:

The way some of these winter discrepancies between TX and Florida happen, it's as if there's more to it than just FL's water moderation. Like, we're talking all of TX in the 40s, while all of Florida except the Panhandle is basically in full on summer. There's flat out no cold-front passage, let alone a moderated passage: the fronts basically hang up at the peninsula.

And when they do pass in FL? They come with little fan-fare often; the rain gets the move on. Meanwhile in TX, too many of these frontal passages bring long, drawn out rainy/cloud periods...whether from preceding warm flow, or from post-frontal overrun periods. These overrun periods are the reason why TX has more "wet gloomy winter days" than FL does. Seeing that the moisture responsible for overrun often comes from the SW, courtesy of the subtropical jet (which has been unusually active given Nina conditions), it's actually strange for TX to have so much of these cold cloudy days: two mountain ranges in Mexico + desert in between should be more than enough to strip the moisture. Quite strange that FL doesn't have much, as there is a warm Gulf of Mexico to the SW... 

Forecast only seems to be getting worse. Three nights in a row of low to mid 30s. 

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LF-TX

Just in case anyone is wondering, so far here in the RGV I’ve seen one coconut that is only suffering light to moderate browning at the ends of the fronds from last week’s cold. If significant browning doesn’t occur anymore, it looks like survival is likely. Have yet to check on the other palms in my area. Royals doing just fine as of now. Bananas, guayabas, young delonix regia, papayas all got pummeled. Hoping regrowth occurs in the spring and no more cold comes our way. 

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Palm crazy

WOW another cold night in TX, you guys can't get a break this winter... 25F in Dallas this morning..... verses 49F here. 

acttemp_1280x720.jpg

Edited by Palm crazy

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cm05

Is that really cold enough to kill a coconut?

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Xenon
2 hours ago, cm05 said:

Is that really cold enough to kill a coconut?

45F (near 50F at the coast) this morning in Brownsville, so no. 

25F in Dallas is also nothing out of the ordinary 

Edited by Xenon

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Palm crazy
4 hours ago, Xenon said:

45F (near 50F at the coast) this morning in Brownsville, so no. 

25F in Dallas is also nothing out of the ordinary 

I keep forgetting you guys have colder winter begining the new year than we do... Ours is mostly end of the year. But once in a while it get really cold here in January or February.  Side note: Winter blooming Camellias have started here. Just in time for the hummers. Few more days sweet box and daphne will be blooming. 

Edited by Palm crazy
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mdsonofthesouth

It was high 60s low 70s for a little while, but this wave is coming for us with lows around 12 to 13f. While this doesnt effect me now it will. Hope yall make it through!

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AnTonY
22 hours ago, Palm crazy said:

I keep forgetting you guys have colder winter begining the new year than we do... Ours is mostly end of the year. But once in a while it get really cold here in January or February.  Side note: Winter blooming Camellias have started here. Just in time for the hummers. Few more days sweet box and daphne will be blooming. 

Even for Texas, the cold mainly is focused there in December/Early January. Starting around Mid January/February, places farther east start to get into play (or even become more of the target):
Contiguous-US-Climatological-Coldest-Day

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TexasColdHardyPalms

After Mid Feb we are pretty much in the clear for anything lower than 20F.  December 20-Feb 10th is the window of doom for us.  

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Palm crazy
20 hours ago, TexasColdHardyPalms said:

After Mid Feb we are pretty much in the clear for anything lower than 20F.  December 20-Feb 10th is the window of doom for us.  

Window of doom here in 8a is November 15th to February 15th.  Same time for 8b here, just not as cold. 

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TexasColdHardyPalms

Looks like we'll have the coldest morning of the year on Wednesday @ somewhere around 14-15F and another 36-48 hours below freezing.  Turning out to be a bad winter over here....

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mdsonofthesouth
40 minutes ago, TexasColdHardyPalms said:

Looks like we'll have the coldest morning of the year on Wednesday @ somewhere around 14-15F and another 36-48 hours below freezing.  Turning out to be a bad winter over here....

 

We just got done with 24-36 hours bellow freezing and wednesday will be another day with a low of 18F and a high of 28F...Right now its a low possible of 13F with actual being around 14-15F so the forcast is looking to hit its target. Fortunately we got upgraded from more low teens wed-thur to getting back to the 40s and 50s much sooner. Hope this forcast keeps! But then again we might get your weather a day or so after, but the forcast has fri-mon in the mid 50s to low 60s possibly so hopefully not. 

 

Eitherway good luck out there!

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AnTonY

Winter Storm Advisory issued by NWS Houston.

Winter Storm Warning issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio

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DoomsDave

Texas is warm and hot, most of the time.

Trouble is, unlike California, there's no big mountain range to stop the cold air from moving in from up north. And, it's not all that far to get to Colorado, the Dakotas or central Canada. Florida gets the water, which helps a lot.

Our mountain ranges can be a mixed blessing. First, they're raised by faults that have earthquakes. Second, they sometimes block rain that might otherwise put out fires or prevent them.

Hope you're all right over in TX.

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LF-TX

Unfortunately, more bad news. Coldest temps yet are to arrive tomorrow night for the RGV. Looks like all areas are going to see freezing temperatures and won’t see 40° all Wednesday. Not only that, but freezing rain is expected in all areas as well. Not a good situation. Especially for all our plants that are still browning from last week’s cold spell. Hoping that the coconuts pull through! The cocos in my area are quite sad and this is bound to test their limits. Another 2011 white ice event looks impending.

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AnTonY
1 hour ago, LF-TX said:

Unfortunately, more bad news. Coldest temps yet are to arrive tomorrow night for the RGV. Looks like all areas are going to see freezing temperatures and won’t see 40° all Wednesday. Not only that, but freezing rain is expected in all areas as well. Not a good situation. Especially for all our plants that are still browning from last week’s cold spell. Hoping that the coconuts pull through! The cocos in my area are quite sad and this is bound to test their limits. Another 2011 white ice event looks impending.

Brownsville too? It's as if these cold fronts just find a way to afflict Texas, no matter the angle they are coming from. 

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TexasColdHardyPalms

Well, anytime we miss the frozen precip because it went south of us it isn't good news for anyone else. Looks like it happened again as we only got a few sprinkles and snowflakes. Local news is calling for single digit temps for the suburbs north of dallas now and low teens for me.  I have a feeling this will be a killer queen event for Houston. 

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AnTonY

@DoomsDave, aren't the mountains in CA east of the coast? How then would they block precip, given the Med rainfall-pattern with storms coming off the Pacific?

@TexasColdHardyPalms, aren't queen palms able to take cold down to the low 20s/upper teens (in very brief spells)? If so, then they should be good in the warmer areas of Houston. Unless you are referring to the stress from last year's cold spell.

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Josh-O

sounds bad!

I wish all you Texans all the best. not a fun situation to go through especially you Joe owning a nursery and all..

 

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LF-TX

Forecast calls for temps in the upper 20s within the next few hours. Looks like a 9b winter for even Brownsville

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AnTonY

@LF-TX, and an 8b winter is a very real possibility for Houston. Clouds/low-level warming/etc would be saving graces.

Positive-tilt cold snaps are never good for Texas.

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Xenon

This is looking really really bad...the whole valley at 6 PM is already below freezing or very near it. Brownsville forecast has been shifted down to a low of 28F from 31F this morning (which already looked horrible). South Padre still holding out at 35-36F. This one could be a real tropical vegetation killer. 

As for Houston...I hope the few Bismarckia we have around town will survive. Also will be interesting to see if the pre-2010 Phoenix roebelenii survive this event. Not too worried about the queen palms yet. 

Edited by Xenon

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AnTonY
57 minutes ago, Xenon said:

This is looking really really bad...the whole valley at 6 PM is already below freezing or very near it. Brownsville forecast has been shifted down to a low of 28F from 31F this morning (which already looked horrible). South Padre still holding out at 35-36F. This one could be a real tropical vegetation killer. 

As for Houston...I hope the few Bismarckia we have around town will survive. Also will be interesting to see if the pre-2010 Phoenix roebelenii survive this event. Not too worried about the queen palms yet. 

We need all the cloud-cover and low-level warm westerlies we can get to stave off the deep cold. If not, well, let's just say that Houston may be in for a zone 8b winter.

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Palm crazy

 This map is insane! Your gardens are being tested for sure, good luck to you all. 

WEB_Snow_Cover_1280x720.jpg

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topwater
8 minutes ago, Palm crazy said:

 This map is insane! Your gardens are being tested for sure, good luck to you all. 

WEB_Snow_Cover_1280x720.jpg

Thanks, this will weed out some of the wanna be’s from stuff that can cut the mustard here in the brutal northwest gulf. Predicted loser, Ravenea rivularis, hopeful winner B. alfredii. 

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Tropicdoc

Topwater  if your alfies live let us know Keith said he was going to lose the last one out of the four I gave him. 

Btw that map is inaccurate there was a dusting of snow in Houma this morning..... second time in 1 winter!

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Tropicdoc

I used to live over in Galveston if I were still there I’d probably have about 10 b Alfredii planted out

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Xenon

Brownsville hit 29F around 1 AM and from there temperatures crept upwards very very slowly...did not get above freezing until past 9 AM. Low of 32F at South Padre Island. 

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topwater

My alfies are all in 2g. pots, they took lows of 28 and 29F without a blemish while Ravenea in the ground pretty well defoliated (New Years freeze). I pulled them inside last nite, low of at least 24F.  The pipes to my house are still frozen at 1:30. This sucks. 

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AnTonY

The Pacific can be both the saving grace and the enemy for Texas when it comes to cold snaps. On one hand, it allows high clouds that help keep mins up during radiational cooling events. But the negative is the production of overrunning events.

The large Pacific Ocean causes generation of low pressures that ride the subtropical jet stream into Texas. Without the cold snaps, this would only be neutral at worse. But with cold in the equation, all the moisture is able to precipitate out. You see it all the time on satellite: shortwave/low pressure that only leads passing clouds at best on the Pacific Mexico coast (because the warm temps mix things out), suddenly blowing up into massively dreary overcast as soon as it crosses Mexico's mountains into Texas (because low temps from a cold snap cause things to precipitate out). The cloud cover holds temps down, rain then falls, but evaporates (because the surface air is cold and dry from the front), cooling temps even more. Rinse and repeat until profiles get cold enough for wintry precip: the stage is set.

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Xenon

probably a record low in Brownsville too if not for 21 degrees in 1888 

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ntxpalms

How cold in Brownsville this morning?  I think I saw 32 or below all the way to Corpus. We were 12 in Plano (Dallas). 

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LF-TX
26 minutes ago, ntxpalms said:

How cold in Brownsville this morning?  I think I saw 32 or below all the way to Corpus. We were 12 in Plano (Dallas). 

Correct, we were in the low thirties at the beginning of the day. I was in Southmost today and surprisingly it was a lot warmer than in my area north of the city which takes the full brunt of northern winds. Fortunately Brownsville got into the 40s this afternoon for a while. Anywhere else stayed in the 30s. Even Channel 5 News provided a page on their site talking about how meteorologists are quite surprised at  this year’s winter season... been quite persistent. Luckily this upcoming week seems to be dominated by a high which will keep us warm. 

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