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Alan_Tampa

2018 Florida Freeze

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PalmatierMeg

Looks like mostly cosmetic damage so far, Pastor Randy. My P. pacifica show the same. My 4 coconut seedlings have spotting and burn even though I wrapped them for the last cold front. But they should all recover quickly. Irma + numerous cold fronts = a ratty looking garden in the spring.

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Missi

I don't think it went below 40 on my lanai (with a single utility space heater) but my potted P. pacificas are also showing cosmetic cold damage...and cursed mealybugs. Makes me afraid to even consider putting them in ground. Pastor Randy, yours look relatively well though! Thanks for the hope!

First winter the bottles have shown cold damage.They have very little cover from a slash pine. The the Attalea(?) seedlings have been in the ground less than 2 months, so they're not terrible, considering. 

Hopefully everything perks up with the nice heat we're having today.

Here are my cold damage palm pics...

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Palmaceae

Thanks Jim, Meg and Missi. Yes just cosmetic damage, as I have seen a lot worse! One good thing is the garden can only look better and not worse. That is if we don't have any more freezing weather!

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Palmaceae

I noticed more damage today on my Veitchia winin, not too bad. I am still grateful as this is the first time below freezing for me in the Cape since I have moved here in 2014. Still soooo much better than my collection in St Pete in the 80's! Praying for no more cold this winter.

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popper1

I live in Lakeland, right between Tampa and Orlando.  Temps in this area can get pretty cold and most areas have fish at least once a winter.   Moved here from an area about 20 minutes south and first was all every winter.  This is the first winter I have had temperatures  below freezing here.  Still have never had any frost since I have lived here, but just blocks away it is a yearly event.  I am 2 blocks and above one of the largest lakes in the area, also a pretty heavy canopy of large trees.  Dypsis pilulifera, only about 2 feet tall have no damage at all.  Surprisingly a Browneopsis ucayalina I did not protect came through fine too, no damage at all, so other plants around it, like Combretum and Ficus ssp. had some burnt foliage.  My two black bamboo, B lako at 1"in diameter and D asper with 6" culms seem to have done ok also. Lowest I saw was 30.1.  Glad there was no frost, that does a lot of cosmetic damage even at higher Temps. 

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kinzyjr

@popper1 The lake definitely helped you out.  I recorded a low near 28F.  I have oak canopy in the back, but no large body of water.

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AnTonY

Quick question, is anybody here on the Facebook Group "Southeastern Palms and Subtropicals?" Still waiting it out on the "pending" section.

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Matthew92

GFS model showing a significant cold air intrusion come early Feb. Just something to watch.

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Sandy Loam

That GFS is unbelievable -- and, as usual, the west of the continent is spared.  If that GFS is a good predictor, I am baffled by what is going on with our climate this winter.  Can anyone explain why this trend is happening?  Meanwhile, it has been mild out west all winter and it has been mild in western Europe too. 

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Alan_Tampa

GFS,  european, nostradamus, whatever. 

 

I'm sick of winter. 

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Chatta

I'm going job hunting in Hawaii next vacation! so over this winter! Looks like they're already forecasting mid 40s for the first week of Feb... I'll be in Miami that weekend -.-

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Matthew92
5 hours ago, Sandy Loam said:

That GFS is unbelievable -- and, as usual, the west of the continent is spared.  If that GFS is a good predictor, I am baffled by what is going on with our climate this winter.  Can anyone explain why this trend is happening?  Meanwhile, it has been mild out west all winter and it has been mild in western Europe too. 

Well, with that huge of an area (Continental United States) it's not going to be all of one anomaly across most of it. Like even if the west coast was having below average temps, another part of the continent would be getting the above average temps. I'm sure it will be vise versa the way it is now in the near future.

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RedRabbit
11 hours ago, Opal92 said:

GFS model showing a significant cold air intrusion come early Feb. Just something to watch.

 

Thanks for sharing. It is starting to get late in winter, but the worst freeze in recorded history occurred in early Feb so we're by no means out of the woods. :/

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Succulentum
8 hours ago, Opal92 said:

Well, with that huge of an area (Continental United States) it's not going to be all of one anomaly across most of it. Like even if the west coast was having below average temps, another part of the continent would be getting the above average temps. I'm sure it will be vise versa the way it is now in the near future.

it's true on the global scale of the earth. in a year the energy balance of the earth is constant over time but not in space: the excess heat in some regions (here 8 to 10 ° C above average) is lacking in other regions, it is mainly the direction of the winds related to the temperature of the oceans the cause.As the winds do not cross the equator, the distribution is between regions of each hemisphere.


Jean-bernard

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PalmatierMeg

The cyclical trend continues: normal ~1 week followed by 1 week of arctic cold, repeat. Actually, this is what passed here for a normal winter in the late 90s and early 2000s but I really didn't get into palms until 2008. As mentioned here many times winter 2010 broke records in so many ways. We didn't have so many knowledgeable people to explain in meteorlogical terms what was happening but the gist was FL got slammed with so many arctic fronts followed by few warm-ups and days where the sun never shone at all. For the only time in the 25 years I've lived here it rained in Cape Coral below 50F (low 40s actually) and temps fell to mid-30s during that rain. That was followed by a record low of 28.5F. My husband and I spent all that Sunday afternoon running around the yard after the rain stopped covering small palms from the coming freeze while I was coming down with bronchitis. After dark, I looked out into the back yard at my beautiful Areca concinna I'd bought from Jeff Searle and for the first and last time I cried about the palms I knew I'd lose. My gallant husband went out and gerryrigged protection for my Areca involving a step ladder, blanket and shop lights. Then, I went on PT and wailed, "I'm going to lose everything!" And, yes, I pretty much did, including the Areca concinna.

That miserable winter carried on well into March. Some people here swore they would never grow another palm again. Most of them are still here. Maybe others gave up PT for roses or hibiscus. Hawaii has become the rage the last few years. It's beautiful but a bit too far away for someone my age. My advice: check the place out carefully before you make the commitment. That's what we did with FL before we chose Cape Coral. Of course, growing palms wasn't even a blip on my radar back in 1993.

In summary, this year's bad winter might be a past year's normal winter and a future year's normal winter. Or it could be an annoying anomaly before a return to seven more years of mild winters. January is almost over. Time to face down February.

 

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RedRabbit

Just got back from vacation and the damage has really started to show...

One surprise has been Ptychosperma macarthurii. So far it isn't showing any damage while my D pembana next to it looks like it will be defoliated and my neighbors d lutescens look like they may be getting knocked back to the ground.

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kinzyjr

Nothing too serious yet, but keep an eye out for changes early next week:

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mdsonofthesouth

Its coming alright! We just got downgraded from 25F to 19F. Wonder how far south this cold will go...thankfully its only a day.

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Trópico

Good morning all! My H. beguinii’s spear looks crispy, but the rest of the palm is mostly green. This one weathered outside but under my back porch close to my glass door. Doesn’t look good. Any recommendations?

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kinzyjr
1 hour ago, Trópico said:

Good morning all! My H. beguinii’s spear looks crispy, but the rest of the palm is mostly green. This one weathered outside but under my back porch close to my glass door. Doesn’t look good. Any recommendations?

 

Give the spear a gentle tug.  If it comes out, use peroxide and copper fungicide.  Then cross your fingers.

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Chatta

My super tropical stuff looks pretty damaged but i think almost everything will live.

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PalmatierMeg
2 hours ago, Trópico said:

Good morning all! My H. beguinii’s spear looks crispy, but the rest of the palm is mostly green. This one weathered outside but under my back porch close to my glass door. Doesn’t look good. Any recommendations?

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Do what Kinzyjr said. And pray. Frankly, doesn't look good. You were brave to plant an H. beguinii outdoors in Orlando. How cold did you get? In 2010 I nursed my H. beguinii for months before it finally gave up and died that summer.

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Trópico

Not pulling ... yet. I marked it.

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sonoranfans
5 hours ago, Trópico said:

Good morning all! My H. beguinii’s spear looks crispy, but the rest of the palm is mostly green. This one weathered outside but under my back porch close to my glass door. Doesn’t look good. Any recommendations?

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looks like the spear will pull, there is no green on it.  there is likely a fungal infection under it.  Getting to that infection with fungicide and peroxide sooner will give it a better chance to survive.  It might be a goner anyway, but you improve your chances by treating sooner.

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Sandy Loam

Has an experiment ever been made to confirm whether the peroxide/copper fungicide method actually works?  I have never done this because I fear pouring harsh chemicals into a palm's growth point.  I also have not seen anyone post hard scientific data to prove that this technique saves a palm from post-freeze decline, although I may have missed it.

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mdsonofthesouth

I would hardly call H2O2 (aka water with an extra oxygen molecule) a harsh chemical, but the bubbling on some palms shows me its doing its job and people far smarter than me about plants use it so I'll take their word for it. But basically it's water that kills anenerobic bacteria.

Edited by mdsonofthesouth
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Sandy Loam

How long after a freeze is too late to start pouring on the hydrogen peroxide/copper fungicide?

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IHB1979
On 1/23/2018, 2:58:53, Sandy Loam said:

That GFS is unbelievable -- and, as usual, the west of the continent is spared.  If that GFS is a good predictor, I am baffled by what is going on with our climate this winter.  Can anyone explain why this trend is happening?  Meanwhile, it has been mild out west all winter and it has been mild in western Europe too. 

You should sign up for Dr. Judah Cohen's weekly AO/PV analysis and forecast. It's pretty technical but he gives the reasoning behind the weather forecast.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

From this weeks email: "The North American circulation pattern, which has been dominated by ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies and warm temperatures in the west and troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies and cold temperatures in the east, will be mostly the opposite with troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies in the west and ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies and warmer temperatures in the east over the next two weeks."

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mdsonofthesouth
48 minutes ago, Sandy Loam said:

How long after a freeze is too late to start pouring on the hydrogen peroxide/copper fungicide?

 

Well im a newbie, but soon as it pulls i pour peroxide in to try and get ahead of the rot.

 

41 minutes ago, IHB1979 said:

You should sign up for Dr. Judah Cohen's weekly AO/PV analysis and forecast. It's pretty technical but he gives the reasoning behind the weather forecast.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

From this weeks email: "The North American circulation pattern, which has been dominated by ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies and warm temperatures in the west and troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies and cold temperatures in the east, will be mostly the opposite with troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies in the west and ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies and warmer temperatures in the east over the next two weeks."

Sure hope its warmer than forecasted because we keep dropping our temps in early feb.

Edited by mdsonofthesouth
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Silas_Sancona
2 hours ago, IHB1979 said:

You should sign up for Dr. Judah Cohen's weekly AO/PV analysis and forecast. It's pretty technical but he gives the reasoning behind the weather forecast.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

From this weeks email: "The North American circulation pattern, which has been dominated by ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies and warm temperatures in the west and troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies and cold temperatures in the east, will be mostly the opposite with troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies in the west and ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies and warmer temperatures in the east over the next two weeks."

^^^Agree with the first sentence here..  Judah's weekly blog updates are something I await reading each and every Monday afternoon, as are weekly/ daily posts on Daniel Swain's California/ Weather West Blog ( mainly focused on the west, but he also discusses the ins and outs of the overall pattern across the country often) and Twitter feed. Judah Cohen also frequently updates his Monday blog entry on and off through the week on his own Twitter page.

Both have published  extensive research regarding many aspects of bigger influences on the wacky temperature dipole seen across the US in recent winters. Long but excellent reads. 

 

  ..As for the suggested switcheroo pattern-wise, it is fairly certain we here in AZ, and a fair share of CA south of Monterey can put the bulk of this winter to rest.. after dropping back to the upper 60s today..after acople days in the upper 70s, we may approach or even eclipse record highs by Sunday and Monday ( low 80s predicted.. quite early, even for here in the desert, btw) If what I saw on last night's 18z run of the GFS dominates future model run output, this taste of mid/late March (in late January) heat might be eclipsed itself here around the 10th/ 11th of Feb. Again however, never trust one model run, no matter how much what it shows stands out at the time. 

 There's still at least 2 or 3 weeks to go before any surprise, out of the blue-type frost/ freeze events can be ruled out of the forecasts here going forward. This year however, it is far more likely the furnace will crank up early and hot.( temps in the lower/ mid 90s have already started showing up down in Sonora, Mex. on some model runs lately.. Remember, it's not even mid February) 

 Regardless of the weather itself, there are signs all over town, and in my garden that point to an early and warm start to the growing season. 

 While there is plenty of cold left, it seems, at least for now, the bulk of it stays mainly focused at the midwest/ northeast with maybe acouple quick swipes at the southeast/ N. Florida before retreating to the mid Atlantic. 

Edited by Silas_Sancona
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bubba

Opal,

That GFS forecast looks apocalyptic (1899)!  I cannot find anything in the forecasts that verify. I can only hope it was a bad run!

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RedRabbit

Has anyone been to Kopsick since the freeze?

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Matthew92

Just saw a vlog of someone at Leu Gardens in Orlando. Quite a bit of burned foliage- more than I thought actually. Bananas, heliconias, ginger, even some large Philodendron or monstera.

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Chatta
1 hour ago, RedRabbit said:

Has anyone been to Kopsick since the freeze?

Ill visit Monday, I work not too far from there. I went right before the freeze and they were trimming stuff up! I hope nothing got seriously damaged there. These are from the day before the freeze.

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PalmatierMeg

I've been checking out my local forecast for a possible major cold blast early to mid this coming week. So far I've seen a one-day low of 44F for me in Cape Coral. That same morning I saw predicted lows of 38 for Orlando, 36 for Ocala and 33 for Gainesville. Not pleasant but not catastrophic. Unless, of course, there is a last minute change in that arctic front.

I can't remember all the meterological tech terms but I read that the negative activity in the North Atlantic (our old friend NAO?) will turn positive and similar positive activity over the Pacific that kept the East so cold and the West so warm will switch off so just maybe all the brutal cold in the East may ease - too little, too late. Damage done.

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mdsonofthesouth
2 hours ago, PalmatierMeg said:

I've been checking out my local forecast for a possible major cold blast early to mid this coming week. So far I've seen a one-day low of 44F for me in Cape Coral. That same morning I saw predicted lows of 38 for Orlando, 36 for Ocala and 33 for Gainesville. Not pleasant but not catastrophic. Unless, of course, there is a last minute change in that arctic front.

I can't remember all the meterological tech terms but I read that the negative activity in the North Atlantic (our old friend NAO?) will turn positive and similar positive activity over the Pacific that kept the East so cold and the West so warm will switch off so just maybe all the brutal cold in the East may ease - too little, too late. Damage done.

 

Being on a similar Longitude in comparison the event looks to be 2 days for us (2nd and 3rd) with the preceding and following days at average to above average temps. So nothing like what we've seen so far this winter.

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Palmaceae

 A few more pictures of damage from the 31-32 degree low we had. Veitchia winin got a bit burnt.

 

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Edited by Palmaceae
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Palmaceae

A few more,

Satakentia

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Maypan

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Edited by Palmaceae
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Palmaceae

Some more,

Very little damage on one of my green malayan's and red spicata.

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