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PalmTreeDude

Another Future Zone Projection

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PalmTreeDude

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kinzyjr

I'll take a wait-and-see approach :)

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Hillizard

PalmTreeDude: Based on the National Climate Assessment predictions, and where I live now, in 30 years most of my palms will be approaching maturity and I'll be staggering toward decrepitude. At least one of those outcomes is positive news! Thanks for sharing. :unsure:

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topwater

Interesting, the entire TX coast may creep from 9b to 10a.  Cool, as long as the surfs not breaking where my house used to be. 

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Palm crazy

Quote: Parker’s adviser, UI climatology professor John Abatzoglou, has conducted research showing the coldest nights of winter have warmed 3 to 4 degrees during the past 45 years across the Northwest.

A lot of old timers that grew up in WA have always said it was much colder here when they were younger.  So according to the website I will go from 8a to 9a in 30 years. 

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PalmatierMeg

Changes in SFL appear to be relatively minor, which is actually not a bad thing or we'd be approaching the 7th circle of h*** (we already do in summer). Changes in northern US may be huge. The other night I saw the end of a report on the Weather Channel (yeah, I know) that indicated a warming trend extending way up into Canada, Siberia, etc., would open up new areas for farming and cultivation that would cause great shifts in global economic growth and power.

Another matter to consider in all this warming, no matter the cause, is that shifts in temps may result in disruptions in rainfall. Areas that now receive adequate rain for crops may no longer do so (think Sahara). Possible? Who knows? I don't. I do know I won't be here to see it.

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PalmTreeDude

This would make me a solid zone 8a. I could see that if this happens, the crape myrtle trees will have another warmer weather neighbor, palmettos. If we are talking what could be grown as ornimentals. I heard that rainfall in areas where it still happens now (near equator) could decrease. 

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Silas_Sancona

While the map depicts the most likely outcome, I honestly think it may be a bit under done.. that is, while many map projections see places  moving up 1/2 or 1 whole zone, i can see a shift upward of 1-1/2..maybe even regionally, or localized shifts upwards of 2 zones as highly possible ....crazy as that may sound to some or not.

Take areas of central FL, most future projections see this region of the state moving up from 9 to 10 in the future, I actually think this is already happening.  I won't be surprised if parts of the coast from St Pete south actually shift into solid 11, 10 extends a finger up around the big bend, and zone 12 makes a solid debut across mainland south FL. Remember , z12 only means winter lows would fall into the 50s. While still likely from time to time, 40s would be less common, 30s rarer.. more so than occurs now.

Fueling such a hypothisis, I came across a thread in the Tropical Fruit Forum last week discussing early thoughts on next year's Mango crop for South Florida. Skimming through various opinion, I saw something that kind surprised me. Some members were expressing concern regarding how the crop could fare based solely on temperature.. or the lack there of. Something having to do with the area's recent warmer winters being too warm for good production of fruit. I'd never have thought that Mangoes would need a period of reletively cooler weather (say a couple weeks where lows fall into in the 50s) during the blooming season to help set fruit.. what really stuck out was the part of the discussion suggesting that if the warmer winters the region has been seeing is a precursor to warmer winters of the future, it may cause a sharp decline in mango productivity, or even cause the "mango belt", it you might call it, to shift north, much like citrus has before..  over the years, like Meg has said, there have been various articles relative to such potential shifts occurring in the future due to shifts in ideal growing conditions or rainfall patterns. Successfully fruiting Jackfruit in San Diego may be a sign of things to come, not just a really cool anomaly.  

Another interesting tidbit comes from Texas, with the expanding range of the Green Jay ( Cyanocoax yncas). Years ago, this tropical Corvid could only be found near Brownsville. According to E-Bird range maps, which are continually updated with new sightings, they've been sighted with regularity in and around San Antonio, and have been showing up further north, east along the coast, and out west. Interestingly, the Brown Jay, another primarily Mexican species, can be spotted on the US side of the border near Falcon Dam.  There are several other really interesting species within 300mi of the S.Tex/ Mex border I'd be watching over the next 20-40 years. Coastal S. Cal, and the Az./ Mexico are other hot spots to continue paying close attention to also.

Here in Arizona, Great Tailed Grackles are pretty much everywhere.. this is another 'Tropical' bird that has been rapidly expanding its range out of Mexico. I find it interesting that I can watch a show about exploring Costa Rica and hear the same yappy bird both on tv, and out in the backyard. This species just recently showed up in the Bay Area ( CA. ) in the last 10-13 years or so.  Many other examples but anyway,

Some other thoughts.. Ultimately on target, or off by a bit..

California follows a similar pattern as Florida.. Atm, at least according to more detailed maps I've seen, most of the region around L.A. and west of the 15 from Oceanside to the US/ Mexico border is currently listed as zone 10, with lots of 10b closer to San Diego and within the L.A. basin proper. Using the same thought, 10b should expand to cover pretty much everything across lower elevations areas of Southern CA. ..with more areas of 11 appearing in favorable spots ( might mostly replace current 10b spots). Places around the Bay area currently 9b, should also jump at least 1/2 a zone, likely 1 whole zone.. Take it or leave it, San Francisco might shift to 11 in favored neighborhoods.. a really cold 11 regardless..

Zone 10 throughout most lower elevation areas of AZ. 10b covering most of Phoenix proper, Yuma solid 11, maybe flirting with 12 some winters in favored neighborhoods.  S. New Mexico, mostly 8.. possibly pockets of just inside z9a.. El Paso, 8.. maybe all 9a, maybe some small micro climate spots 9b.. basically, less cold intrusions from the north, more mild winters..

Don't be surprised if, in actuality compared to said projected shifts, a majority of the Texas coast ends up listed as zone 10, possibly inland to San Antonio.. or close ..Solid 10b south of Corpus Christi.. maybe 11 around Brownsville.. maybe a hair north/ more inland along the border. Zone 9 moves as far north as near Dallas, maybe to the Red River, the same zone stretching basically unbroken west to east from S.E. Arizona to roughly somewhere near Charleston, then up towards Vriginia at the coast, maybe extending further, right at the beaches.. 

Pac. Northwest coastal areas, solid z9. ( ive actually come across discussions regarding Seattle's climate becomming more like present day San Jose, CA.) Anything below zone 6 pretty much disappearing from the US at low elevations across the Plains/ Midwest.

***Again, while my thoughts regarding potential zone shifts are more out on the limb hypothetical at the moment, when I look over all the research I do across many different investigations, the most obvious conclusion is no matter how much data imput exists from so many sources, we don't have a "definate" as far as how MUCH things could actually shift. Nudged or purely cyclical, a changing climate has a way of not listening to even the best computer simulations and doing what it wants. Other things offer up more interesting hints.

 I may be on to something, others may be ..or things won't change all that much at all, quite unlikely though.. nothing in nature stays the same for long. Coming out if a Glacial episode, the more likely direction is warmer.. for the time being. How much?, we' ll see... could there still be nasty cold spells?  ..most likely, though less likely further south, over time. 

As I've said before, pay closest attention to the little things... what cool newbie, once a rare or vagrant wanderer, has been frequenting the Hummingbird/ seed feeder, local beaches, the neighborhood park, etc the last several years. What has survived far longer than anticipated in the yard, maybe even flowered and fruited where not expected.. What no longer grows well/ always has issues in the garden, where the new bugs in town came from, do they disippear in the winter anymore? How many winters, or not?? etc..  These seem to be among the best  "tells" of where things may be headed, of all..

-Nathan

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LF-TX
2 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

While the map depicts the most likely outcome, I honestly think it may be a bit under done.. that is, while many map projections see places  moving up 1/2 or 1 whole zone, i can see a shift upward of 1-1/2..maybe even regionally, or localized shifts upwards of 2 zones as highly possible ....crazy as that may sound to some or not.

Take areas of central FL, most future projections see this region of the state moving up from 9 to 10 in the future, I actually think this is already happening.  I won't be surprised if parts of the coast from St Pete south actually shift into solid 11, 10 extends a finger up around the big bend, and zone 12 makes a solid debut across mainland south FL. Remember , z12 only means winter lows would fall into the 50s. While still likely from time to time, 40s would be less common, 30s rarer.. more so than occurs now.

Fueling such a hypothisis, I came across a thread in the Tropical Fruit Forum last week discussing early thoughts on next year's Mango crop for South Florida. Skimming through various opinion, I saw something that kind surprised me. Some members were expressing concern regarding how the crop could fare based solely on temperature.. or the lack there of. Something having to do with the area's recent warmer winters being too warm for good production of fruit. I'd never have thought that Mangoes would need a period of reletively cooler weather (say a couple weeks where lows fall into in the 50s) during the blooming season to help set fruit.. what really stuck out was the part of the discussion suggesting that if the warmer winters the region has been seeing is a precursor to warmer winters of the future, it may cause a sharp decline in mango productivity, or even cause the "mango belt", it you might call it, to shift north, much like citrus has before..  over the years, like Meg has said, there have been various articles relative to such potential shifts occurring in the future due to shifts in ideal growing conditions or rainfall patterns. Successfully fruiting Jackfruit in San Diego may be a sign of things to come, not just a really cool anomaly.  

Another interesting tidbit comes from Texas, with the expanding range of the Green Jay ( Cyanocoax yncas). Years ago, this tropical Corvid could only be found near Brownsville. According to E-Bird range maps, which are continually updated with new sightings, they've been sighted with regularity in and around San Antonio, and have been showing up further north, east along the coast, and out west. Interestingly, the Brown Jay, another primarily Mexican species, can be spotted on the US side of the border near Falcon Dam.  There are several other really interesting species within 300mi of the S.Tex/ Mex border I'd be watching over the next 20-40 years. Coastal S. Cal, and the Az./ Mexico are other hot spots to continue paying close attention to also.

Here in Arizona, Great Tailed Grackles are pretty much everywhere.. this is another 'Tropical' bird that has been rapidly expanding its range out of Mexico. I find it interesting that I can watch a show about exploring Costa Rica and hear the same yappy bird both on tv, and out in the backyard. This species just recently showed up in the Bay Area ( CA. ) in the last 10-13 years or so.  Many other examples but anyway,

Some other thoughts.. Ultimately on target, or off by a bit..

California follows a similar pattern as Florida.. Atm, at least according to more detailed maps I've seen, most of the region around L.A. and west of the 15 from Oceanside to the US/ Mexico border is currently listed as zone 10, with lots of 10b closer to San Diego and within the L.A. basin proper. Using the same thought, 10b should expand to cover pretty much everything across lower elevations areas of Southern CA. ..with more areas of 11 appearing in favorable spots ( might mostly replace current 10b spots). Places around the Bay area currently 9b, should also jump at least 1/2 a zone, likely 1 whole zone.. Take it or leave it, San Francisco might shift to 11 in favored neighborhoods.. a really cold 11 regardless..

Zone 10 throughout most lower elevation areas of AZ. 10b covering most of Phoenix proper, Yuma solid 11, maybe flirting with 12 some winters in favored neighborhoods.  S. New Mexico, mostly 8.. possibly pockets of just inside z9a.. El Paso, 8.. maybe all 9a, maybe some small micro climate spots 9b.. basically, less cold intrusions from the north, more mild winters..

Don't be surprised if, in actuality compared to said projected shifts, a majority of the Texas coast ends up listed as zone 10, possibly inland to San Antonio.. or close ..Solid 10b south of Corpus Christi.. maybe 11 around Brownsville.. maybe a hair north/ more inland along the border. Zone 9 moves as far north as near Dallas, maybe to the Red River, the same zone stretching basically unbroken west to east from S.E. Arizona to roughly somewhere near Charleston, then up towards Vriginia at the coast, maybe extending further, right at the beaches.. 

Pac. Northwest coastal areas, solid z9. ( ive actually come across discussions regarding Seattle's climate becomming more like present day San Jose, CA.) Anything below zone 6 pretty much disappearing from the US at low elevations across the Plains/ Midwest.

***Again, while my thoughts regarding potential zone shifts are more out on the limb hypothetical at the moment, when I look over all the research I do across many different investigations, the most obvious conclusion is no matter how much data imput exists from so many sources, we don't have a "definate" as far as how MUCH things could actually shift. Nudged or purely cyclical, a changing climate has a way of not listening to even the best computer simulations and doing what it wants. Other things offer up more interesting hints.

 I may be on to something, others may be ..or things won't change all that much at all, quite unlikely though.. nothing in nature stays the same for long. Coming out if a Glacial episode, the more likely direction is warmer.. for the time being. How much?, we' ll see... could there still be nasty cold spells?  ..most likely, though less likely further south, over time. 

As I've said before, pay closest attention to the little things... what cool newbie, once a rare or vagrant wanderer, has been frequenting the Hummingbird/ seed feeder, local beaches, the neighborhood park, etc the last several years. What has survived far longer than anticipated in the yard, maybe even flowered and fruited where not expected.. What no longer grows well/ always has issues in the garden, where the new bugs in town came from, do they disippear in the winter anymore? How many winters, or not?? etc..  These seem to be among the best  "tells" of where things may be headed, of all..

-Nathan

You’re points aren’t erroneous Nathan; I agree. 

These predicted zone changes can very well turn out to be more extensive than we think. As you mentioned, in some areas, these changes seem to be appearing already. In my area just north of Brownsville (currently 10a), I’ve noticed throughout the years that the lower Rio Grande Valley is becoming a lot more green and lush than arid and dry - and a warming climate is the only explanation I can give for this. Granted, Brownsville isn’t immune to cold snaps, but temperatures only seem to be getting better at rebounding back to warmth. I personally have keen interest in coconut palms, and surprisingly they’ve been become more numerous here. And not to forget that they, along with other tropical plants like royal poincianas & cuban royal palms, have been doing very well here in the face of our winters. I know of one coconut palm on the farm road that I live by which has survived PLENTY of cold snaps such as the ice storm of 2011... and that’s because it’s a NORTH-facing palm with little protection from the chilly winds. Apparently, while still cruel, winters down seem to be calming a bit.

Every drive through the Brownsville area only shows more and more tropical. I can’t wait to see how our area, along with others across the area, will look like if these predictions hold up. 

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PalmTreeDude

Interesting, never expected anyone to say that the zones may even be higher than these projections say. I have never seen it dip below 3 degrees F here in 11 years. Our winters can have some warm days too, up to the 70s. I wonder if any old timers here have noticed an increase in winter temperatures.

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Silas_Sancona
On Thu Nov 30 2017 16:25:11 GMT-0700, LF-TX said:

You’re points aren’t erroneous Nathan; I agree. 

These predicted zone changes can very well turn out to be more extensive than we think. As you mentioned, in some areas, these changes seem to be appearing already. In my area just north of Brownsville (currently 10a), I’ve noticed throughout the years that the lower Rio Grande Valley is becoming a lot more green and lush than arid and dry - and a warming climate is the only explanation I can give for this. Granted, Brownsville isn’t immune to cold snaps, but temperatures only seem to be getting better at rebounding back to warmth. I personally have keen interest in coconut palms, and surprisingly they’ve been become more numerous here. And not to forget that they, along with other tropical plants like royal poincianas & cuban royal palms, have been doing very well here in the face of our winters. I know of one coconut palm on the farm road that I live by which has survived PLENTY of cold snaps such as the ice storm of 2011... and that’s because it’s a NORTH-facing palm with little protection from the chilly winds. Apparently, while still cruel, winters down seem to be calming a bit.

Every drive through the Brownsville area only shows more and more tropical. I can’t wait to see how our area, along with others across the area, will look like if these predictions hold up. 

LF-TX, thanks, and I agree with your thoughts.. they certainly mirror what other forum members like Xenon,  and Mr. Coconut Palm, among many others,  have discussed prior.

While optimistic as far as what a warmer scenerio might entail, there's certainly room for skepticism, which i can find agreement in since the whole topic is, truthfully, speculative at this point.. which is why I mention how important studying  the smaller "clues" can be.. 

Part of the overall conversation has to include things like: " What locally/ regionally native animals/ plants are simply rebounding from being exterminated, on a local/ regional scale in times past" "..what others are entirely new, and expanding into previously unobserved territory.. what appears to be the more general trend ( if any)?  etc.. 

Another important angle comes from those of us who enjoy more exotic things in the Garden, ...how are they responding, as you said, to being set back during those especially damaging cold spells.. can stuff you might consider "especially tender" rebound well afterwards, or, is it wiped out after acouple bad years.. again, what is the trend..  This is where places like Palmtalk and other plant/gardening- oriented forums come into play.. cuz' many are always pushing around boundries and those successes and failures tell another part of the story, over time..

 

 

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PalmTreeDude

Since then I have talked with "old timers" from here. Most said that the winters here do seem warmer. But this winter they said was not too much warmer than the past. 

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Jimbean
5 hours ago, PalmTreeDude said:

Since then I have talked with "old timers" from here. Most said that the winters here do seem warmer. But this winter they said was not too much warmer than the past. 

This is all speculation, but maybe the climate is cycling back the way it was decades ago.

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PalmTreeDude
On 3/19/2018, 1:22:59, Jimbean said:

This is all speculation, but maybe the climate is cycling back the way it was decades ago.

It would be nice if we could get these warmer temperatures with no negative effects. 

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mdsonofthesouth

Well losing a little coastline for more trees and better food harvests in colder climates should be a good thing. Warmer weather = more plants, more plants = more food and oxygen. I think thats worth a little beach space if it comes to that. Highly doubt the sky is falling crowd is right in that we would lose a ton of beach space. Would mean less people dying, unless youre too stubborn to leave your beach house...."it was a foolish man who built his house upon the sand". Just my $.02 ::puts flame suit on::

 

But if these changes happen we could be zone 8 which would be a good thing for me!

Edited by mdsonofthesouth

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cm05

Every little bit counts, especially for those of us with borderline palm-friendly winters (zone 7), a half zone boost would truly open the floodgates. Cities like NYC and DC would be bordering on zone 8b under such a scenario.

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mdsonofthesouth

Yeah if this happens I will make the switch from only trachycarpus to mainly palmettos! 

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Palmsbro

With parts of Michigan being z7b at that point, people will start to plant palms there, and places like Utah, Southern New Jersey, and much of the lower Midwest/Upper South will become areas where palms are commonly planted. This is quite an interesting article and map.

Though much more of Florida become z10b and even a small bit of z11a and much of Southern Louisiana becomes 9b, these areas will likely partially be underwater by the time these changes happen.

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PalmTreeDude

If the zones do warm this much, Virginia Beach will be like Myrtle Beach, S.C. today and where I am near Richmond will probably be like Colombia S.C. today. This is IF they change how the article says they will. 

Edited by PalmTreeDude
Typos

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