Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Matthew92

2017-2018 Winter Continental U.S.

Recommended Posts

Matthew92

Wondering what this winter is going to be like.

I just noticed on the forecast some significant cold coming in to my area, and it's just not one night. It's coming!

59ede7285fa40_forecastnic.jpg.ec64150101

Everyone- feel free to use this thread for 17'-18' winter reports/data/discussion.

Edited by Opal92

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
kinzyjr

We didn't get anything this cold until January last winter.  I don't have anything that will take damage from low-50's, but this kind of front hasn't come this early in many years.  Accuweather was saying we might hit our record low of 46F.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Xenon

Sunday morning temperature forecast just keeps dropping...down to 40F. There's a real possibility of a first frost for northern and western portions of Houston this weekend, but the majority of the city is forecast for a low in the mid 40s (for now). 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
cm05

A La Niña pattern normally yields warm winters for the southern half of the country. It can go either way for me, most predictions have my area being warmer than normal this winter, I’m not holding my breath though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Silas_Sancona

Also one who will be hoping for the best ( mild 65-78f days, and some cool  nights ( ...a huge bleseing after this summer) but nothing below 32f from Thanksgiving 'till Feb. 1st) but are always ready for any possible curveball that might get thrown. Being that a more- legitimate LA Nina looks more likely this winter, the suggested milder / drier winter here looks more likely... 

Then again, last year was the perfect example of a winter forecast busted wide open across the entire West/ Southwest. This is why I'll be doing what I have since '09.. staying on top of all the weather geek tools at my disposal.. Tidbits 3- 4  mod. runs daily, Weekly/ bi-weekly arctic /stratospheric/ PV forecasts from Judah Cohen over on AER'S site, Stormsurf's Pacific forecast section, among the usual places to gain insight.. or plan for what to bring inside, if need be.

As I see it, I think the overall 3-4 month period ahead should edge out milder overall,  though I'm paying attention to some signs that might suggest a higher potential for acouple extra  ..although brief.. cold spells this winter back east this year compared to last winter. Likely earlier than later on if this pattern does set up. Well see ofcourse.

How much cold can build/ shift around will depend ofcourse on how much, and how often a pattern of mild Pacific air flowing west/ east  across the country sets up this season. Hoping for exactly that.. 95% of the winter ahead.

Rainfall/ snowfall is a toss up.. on one hand La Nina suggest below normal potential. Last year, a neutral/ lean La Nina winter threw a similarly below normal forecast  the tank, at least in CA.  A stronger signal for a true La Nina this year may make a better case for the current outlook this year so, we'll see.

Locally, we haven't had a drop since ..what was a very quick Monsoon season( lasted roughly 3 weeks after it got going here), shut off completely at the start of August( not normal).. Tucson, ofcourse, did far better, though the normal late season monsoonal flow mostly disappeared down there about the same time.. certainly won't mind if we end up slightly wetter than forecasted this season.

The big question for the west is whether or not the RRR makes a return and starts another Drought cycle. 

Regardless, hopefully everyone escapes the grip of any widespread or severe cold outbreaks this year. 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
AnTonY

Like clockwork, the activity picks up when winter approaches. :)

I concur with those above in wishing for no severe cold outbreaks that kill plants. But this forum seems to be the only online community where cold isn't desired: all the other websites, whether Facebook feeds, and especially the Wx sites (i.e. Storm2k), all seem to be filled with cold lovers who just want nothing but major freezes.

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Xenon

Wow, looks like Honolulu recorded 58F this morning. That's usually about the coldest temperature recorded in an average year...but in October! Miami hasn't even dropped below 60F yet. 

  • Upvote 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
CLINODAVE

Those Hawaii temps are strange.  NWS observations recorded wild temp swings in mere minutes at some stations.  Interestingly, Lihue --  where fronts first bring lower temps -- stayed in the 70s for lows as has my station in Hilo area.  A number of years ago, NWS recorded a low of 48F at Hilo which I knew was not accurate and commented so on their Hawaii Facebook page.  They confirmed that their recording equipment had malfunctioned, although the temp remains on their observations for that particular date.

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Xenon
6 hours ago, CLINODAVE said:

Those Hawaii temps are strange.  NWS observations recorded wild temp swings in mere minutes at some stations.  Interestingly, Lihue --  where fronts first bring lower temps -- stayed in the 70s for lows as has my station in Hilo area.  A number of years ago, NWS recorded a low of 48F at Hilo which I knew was not accurate and commented so on their Hawaii Facebook page.  They confirmed that their recording equipment had malfunctioned, although the temp remains on their observations for that particular date.

I don't think the readings were accurate either. Definitely fishy. 20171024_212743.thumb.png.429c4fdf00d4e4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Chatta

Weather.com is saying 49F at my house on Monday, that seems so cold for this time of year!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Matthew92

Got to 45 this morning here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Silas_Sancona
On Tue Oct 24 2017 07:14:45 GMT-0700, AnTonY said:

Like clockwork, the activity picks up when winter approaches. :)

I concur with those above in wishing for no severe cold outbreaks that kill plants. But this forum seems to be the only online community where cold isn't desired: all the other websites, whether Facebook feeds, and especially the Wx sites (i.e. Storm2k), all seem to be filled with cold lovers who just want nothing but major freezes.

^^ lol, have to agree w/ this.. I see it every time someone like Brett Anderson  or Frank Straight over on AccuWeather discusses a forecast/ forthcoming storm, snow potential, etc this time of year.. And the cold lovers? Pretty fiesty bunch..  then again, so are us warmth lovers/ storm chasers...

After living in both Kansas and Ohio in years past, i myself got tired of having to wake up early.. just to try and get your car unstuck in the snow, then try and drive to work in it.. scarping/ shoveling the stuff.. the "joy" that is an ice storm, cold and dreary weather pretty much from Thanksgiving until Easter ..I'll pass. 

On the flipside, there were times when some snow on the ground was worth taking the long way home to enjoy, and honestly, there is an abrupt weather change that can happen, practically overnight, toward the start of spring that most people who have never experienced it, will never understand..  Going to bed with a foot of snow still on the ground, only to wake up to strong storms and torrential rainfall is an experience..

 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Palms1984
23 hours ago, Xenon said:

Wow, looks like Honolulu recorded 58F this morning. That's usually about the coldest temperature recorded in an average year...but in October! Miami hasn't even dropped below 60F yet. 

There's no way Honolulu recorded a 58ºF temp in October.  It very rarely records this cold a temp in January.   It must be an error in a recording station.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Palmaceae

We will see how this winter goes, but for now it was certainly a beautiful day here in SW Florida. Temps in the 70's, low dew point, been waiting for this since last April! Should drop to the low to mid 50's tonight, finally can open the windows!

Edited by Palmaceae
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Palms1984
On 10/25/2017, 12:13:52, Palms1984 said:

There's no way Honolulu recorded a 58ºF temp in October.  It very rarely records this cold a temp in January.   It must be an error in a recording station.  

I guess I was wrong, it was 58ºF. It's pretty unbelievable to me (being from Honolulu) that it would get so cold this time of year.   I think Honolulu is getting the weather San Diego usually gets this time of year and we're getting the very hot nights and days that's typical for there.  Yikes!     

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Silas_Sancona
2 hours ago, Palms1984 said:

I guess I was wrong, it was 58ºF. It's pretty unbelievable to me (being from Honolulu) that it would get so cold this time of year.   I think Honolulu is getting the weather San Diego usually gets this time of year and we're getting the very hot nights and days that's typical for there.  Yikes!     

Crazy? Yep,  unheard of?  Not entirely.. Still weird however..

There had been a persistent area of Low Pressure hanging around the islands for a week or so and my first thought after hearing about this and checking the weather there was what they call a "cold core" upper level low..  these things are notorious for bringing strange weather events like this if the cold air they contain reaches all the way to the surface, or can be effeciently moved down to the surface. Thunderstorms produced in these systems can also bring this chilly air to the ground in downdrafts. 

I've seen local systems like this bring a day in the mid 60s mid-summer. Heck, we had one day a system like this brought a night where it dropped to 48f in between a two week heatwave one year I lived in Ohio.  Hawaii may be much further south, but can still experience rare events like this if the ingredients come together..

On the opposite end, think of the heatwave across CA. as the "yin" to this weather systems " yang" 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
CLINODAVE
11 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Crazy? Yep,  unheard of?  Not entirely.. Still weird however..

There had been a persistent area of Low Pressure hanging around the islands for a week or so and my first thought after hearing about this and checking the weather there was what they call a "cold core" upper level low..  these things are notorious for bringing strange weather events like this if the cold air they contain reaches all the way to the surface, or can be effeciently moved down to the surface. Thunderstorms produced in these systems can also bring this chilly air to the ground in downdrafts. 

I've seen local systems like this bring a day in the mid 60s mid-summer. Heck, we had one day a system like this brought a night where it dropped to 48f in between a two week heatwave one year I lived in Ohio.  Hawaii may be much further south, but can still experience rare events like this if the ingredients come together..

On the opposite end, think of the heatwave across CA. as the "yin" to this weather systems " yang" 

I know Malaysia and Singapore can experience hail events, which I always assumed must include some pretty cold air to allow the hail to remain intact onto the ground.  Regarding Hawaii's recent temps, I checked nearby Wunderground stations and other NWS stations close to HNL where I think the main NWS station is located, and none of them showed lows below the 70sF on 24 Oct, when the airport was in the 50s supposedly.  To add to the weirdness, Kaneohe observations (windward Oahu) went from 72 at 1:57 a.m. to 55 at 2:57 a.m. and back up to 75 at 3:57.  Seems like a short time for such wild swings.  I emailed NWS Honolulu to get their take.  Last time I noticed a local temp anomaly and contacted them, they told me I was correct and their equip had malfunctioned.  I must really be a weather nerd.

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Silas_Sancona
10 hours ago, CLINODAVE said:

I know Malaysia and Singapore can experience hail events, which I always assumed must include some pretty cold air to allow the hail to remain intact onto the ground.  Regarding Hawaii's recent temps, I checked nearby Wunderground stations and other NWS stations close to HNL where I think the main NWS station is located, and none of them showed lows below the 70sF on 24 Oct, when the airport was in the 50s supposedly.  To add to the weirdness, Kaneohe observations (windward Oahu) went from 72 at 1:57 a.m. to 55 at 2:57 a.m. and back up to 75 at 3:57.  Seems like a short time for such wild swings.  I emailed NWS Honolulu to get their take.  Last time I noticed a local temp anomaly and contacted them, they told me I was correct and their equip had malfunctioned.  I must really be a weather nerd.

Certainly possible this was a mal- flunction of the censors but, such sudden temp. drops aren't out of the norm under the right conditions.  One well placed Downdraft can produce a similar effect.

Kind of the opposite of a "Heat Burst" where local temps rise quickly ahead of a thunderstorm under unusual circumstances. Several well documented cases include sudden temperature increases exceeding 100f well past sunset before dropping 15 or 30 deg. several minutes later.  As much as we think we understand, there is still a lot we have yet to learn about the weather. 

  • Upvote 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
CLINODAVE

Interesting those downdrafts.  Since NWS observations at HNL are usually just hourly, you can't really tell how long such a cooling effect would have lasted.  Mighta been just a few minutes.  Just shows that tropical weather can have its nuances too.

Edited by CLINODAVE

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Xenon

Houston6am.jpg.05ac581975dd86844aa80e9c8

New record low temperatures for October 29th!


Also check out the heat island effect...areas in the darkest shades of green recorded lows 43-46F in contrast to upper 30s just a few miles away. These are 2:30 am temperatures. heatisland.thumb.JPG.d5085fd82eb09878e92

In fact you don't really find that shade of green inland until you get to the Rio Grande Valley!

texas2am.JPG.671fda0d6849a699715e51fb8b5

Edited by Xenon
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
AnTonY
2 hours ago, Xenon said:

Houston6am.jpg.05ac581975dd86844aa80e9c8

New record low temperatures for October 29th!


Also check out the heat island effect...areas in the darkest shades of green recorded lows 43-46F in contrast to upper 30s just a few miles away. These are 2:30 am temperatures. heatisland.thumb.JPG.d5085fd82eb09878e92

In fact you don't really find that shade of green inland until you get to the Rio Grande Valley!

texas2am.JPG.671fda0d6849a699715e51fb8b5

Quite interesting to the level of cold at Palacios, given that the airport is right by Matagorda Bay.

In fact, the temps seem to bottom out quite low in Brazoria, Matagorda, even portions of mainland Galveston county relative to their proximity to water and/or far south location.

Edited by AnTonY

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Matthew92

38 this morning here. Looks like it's going to get pretty darn cold tonight too. I may actually have to run outside to bring in a few things if the temp keeps dropping like it is now- already below 45. I don't mind some cold, but please no freeze!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
kinzyjr

They are calling for 45F for a low here.  Right now I'm sitting just under 56 degrees.  The next 2 days will be well below average, but the forecast also shows temperatures returning to normal the rest of the week.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Reeverse

45 last night in Daytona beach shores where I'm at. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
RedRabbit

Lowest I recorded was 48f. I'm guessing it was 45f open yard. Not too bad!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
IHB1979

I had 50 this morning. It's 58 now on its way to 54 tonight. Perfect conditions for a radiational freeze had this been late December. No wind, low dew point and crystal clear skies. We rebound nice after tonight.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
PalmTreeDude

Here is my weather this week. Cold!!! AHhh!

sdfsdfs.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
PalmTreeDude

I just hate that one day we have every winter where the temperature makes us a USDA zone 7a/7b. Without this one "freeze" day we would be a 8a (sometimes 8b) climate. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Matthew92

Got to 37 deg a few weeks ago and 33 deg a few days ago. Frost with both, but plant damage quite minimal. I like it that we are consistently getting colder but no sudden temperature plunges (ref. November 2014 which got well into the 20's).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Desert DAC

We finally had our first freeze last weekend...31F Sunday AM, then 30F Monday AM. I think that's a week or so late, but after a super warm late summer into fall, it's actually a relief. No freeze in sight until mid-next week.

77F as we speak, probably near or at the record high.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Silas_Sancona

While sun and mild isn't unusual here for Thanksgiving and late November, the non-stop mid/ upper 80s this month put the area 9-17 degrees above what's considered normal for the month in the low desert. Somehow, we barely escaped surpassing our record high or 87f on Thanksgiving. Tomorrow is expected to hit 88, we'll see.  

At the same time, the past weeks heat yeilded 92 in San Diego, ..mid/upper 90s in inland spots there, and 100f in Anaheim.. Lots of all time records. Crazy for late Fall.  Tuesday or Wednesday, it look as if we'll see a pattern change which should bring temps back closer to normal ( 71-74f Is average for Phoenix right now) and may offer up a chance... at some sort of precip. ( now 92 days w/o rain, and counting) later next week. To date, none of the local mountains have yet to see snow.. the natural kind anyway.

While the overall east to west pattern looks to continue, some of the model runs this week have been attempting to slide some quick moving cold spells down from Oregon, then across S. Cal, AZ, and / or across parts of the South over the next 10 days or so. Nothing all that ominous atp, but worth keeping an eye on. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
TexasColdHardyPalms
On 10/31/2017, 2:46:55, PalmTreeDude said:

I just hate that one day we have every winter where the temperature makes us a USDA zone 7a/7b. Without this one "freeze" day we would be a 8a (sometimes 8b) climate. 

Most everyone feels this way as we are few days a year from enjoying a full zone to zone bump. 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Palm crazy
On November 27, 2017 6:13:40 AM, TexasColdHardyPalms said:

Most everyone feels this way as we are few days a year from enjoying a full zone to zone bump. 

Don't feel bad Palm tree dude, it happens here in the PNW also. We can have a low of 30F for the whole winter and then Boom, one big Arctic Blast and we go down into the teens in 8a, and low twenties in 8b/9a. 

Looks like a big cold spell is coming to the Mid West and  Northeast. 

colder-pattern-7dec17.jpg

Edited by Palm crazy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hillizard

I spent part of Saturday, 11/25, hauling several of my palms and tender subtropicals into the sunroom. For the coming weeks night time temps in the low 40s (and upper 30s) are being forecast for my area of interior NorCal and some of my plants are already indicating stress by dropping leaves, turning yellow and/or spotting. The good thing is this year these lows are actually weeks later than usual for my zone. Some of my palms I move under an outdoor patio roof and others go into the sunroom for the next 3-4 months. It's always an experiment/test to see which need more/less protection from rain/cold, but I won't risk losing my Hyophorbe verschaffeltii and Jubaeopsis caffra , so they always come indoors this time of year. Their pots are so large now I use a hand truck to move them. :unsure:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
kinzyjr

If we stayed within 10 degrees of our averages, we'd be in zone 11 here.  Oh well...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Silas_Sancona

November stats for Phoenix:

83f was the avrg. high-  7f above normal, record warmest

Monthly average low: 7f above normal- record warmest

100 and counting days w/out rainfall,  only the second time in recorded history no rain has fallen in the Sept-Nov. period. Hasn't happened since 1938. Records go back to the late 1800's, if I remember correctly..

..While it looks like the 80s are done for the time being, anything above 70-ish is considered above average for the area going into December.. Temps appear to mostly range between the 69-76f range for the next 7 days ( last I saw this morning) .. And still no real chances of rain here in the Valley.. maybe sprinkles, or a flurry or two, up by Flagstaff next week..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Palm crazy

My low so far this winter has been 33F and this week looks cold and into the low 30's... I can only hope this doesn't amount to much damage on my Philodendron, Elephant ears.

Cannas and Gingers need to be cut back anyways. Oh well will have to see what happens. Hopefully will have some fog at night to keep it above freezing. Fingers crossed it will not go below 33F. 

https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/us/wa/olympia/KWAOLYMP45?cm_ven=localwx_10day

 

Edited by Palm crazy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Palm crazy

Low last night was 32F my first freeze of the season. :P December 6th. 

Edited by Palm crazy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Silas_Sancona

.After 106 days,  a sad, albeit unexpected .07" broke our rainless streak.. Amusing how this was a top story on the news last night. Cool today, back to 76-79f by the weekend which believe it or not, would still be above normal. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
pin38

So far we've been like much of the West this winter; warmer than average and mostly in the sixties during the day. It's supposed to cool off a little in the forecast, but only into the forties or fifties for the highs and twenties for the low. The Phoenix dactylifera seedling I planted from an extra grocery store seed just for kicks back in May is still alive. It's only probably been through upper teens at the lowest, and it's only half a foot from my south-facing brick wall. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Similar Content

    • PalmTreeDude
      By PalmTreeDude
      I thought I'd start a thread about frost after seeing very thick frost this morning. How often does your climate get frost (if it even does)? Where are you located? Are you in a cold/warm microclimate or have any? Here in Virginia, near Chester, we get frost commonly during the Winter and late Fall. Tree canopy (I use Leyland Cypress for this, it works well) and close proximity to water can protect places here from a lot of the first frosts. Here was the frost this morning, the first picture is from my front yard (exposed to the West) and the second picture is from a lot with Leyland Cypress in it. Notice how the closer you get to the Leyland Cypress the less frost there is. Also keep in mind that this was a pretty heavy frost. With light frosts, it is common for places with dense canopy above to get no frost at all. 


    • PalmTreeDude
      By PalmTreeDude
      So it will be going down to 25 tonight, which means all tropicals will be killed for the winter, the only are around me that may be spared is the islands in the reservoir, but even they might not be saved by the water. They have not had a single frost yet, even the areas right along the lake did not frost yet (I can tell by the completely unharmed bananas a trees along the water). My Cayanne Pepper plants will be killed by tomorrow. So I did my final harvest. 

    • Jake
      By Jake
      So I’m planning on moving to the Emerald Coast after I finish my EMT-P. From what I’ve seen, it’s mostly Cabbage Palms, Canary Island Dates, Windmills, and some California Fan Palms. 
      The area seems to have most everything I want, but I find it slightly upsetting that Cocoa’s cannot grow there! I did some research on the subject and found that Pensacola and Panama City are both 9a USDA zones. Not surprising at all.
      Now this is what throws me off; Multiple websites I have seen say that Coconut Palms are “..great for growing from 9a to 11..” Is this information just plain wrong? I’m just confused as to why no one would plant these in the panhandle if they are able..?
      Thanks for your time,
      - Jake


    • Tropicdoc
      By Tropicdoc
      Potted coconut vs. 17 degrees F
       


×