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enigma99

Freeze warning for CA

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GottmitAlex

This afternoon we had hail for about 30 seconds. Sun was out immediately after though.

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enigma99

gfs_850_9panel.gifSo it is getting cold again, some spots will freeze the next couple of nights.

But... tonight's GFS showing near apocalyptic cold pouring in Jan 4th. (Jan 5th down south) These things can change, 10 days+ is not reliable but never good to have the possibility. It is the 10 year anniversary of 2007 :(

Next update is 9:10am pst

Edited by enigma99
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Ben in Norcal

I don't really understand this stuff in the detail I should, but I hope this is wrong.  Long range forecasts for that week that I am seeing show cool conditions/lows near freezing, but similar to this week vs. apocalyptic.  Fingers crossed.

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enigma99

I think the 15 day forecasts take in account the probability of this model changing. But if it doesn't, or as time gets closer the temps get revised down. 

This morning's run is showing some purple over central California on the 4th. These are temps at 850mb or 5000 ft but still that would probably mean low to mid 20s in some areas under the purple. Dark blue would probably be upper 20s for us.

Too far in the future to worry yet. More than likely it will become more mild, like it usually does. Can't wait for Spring. 

Edited by enigma99
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enigma99

Current forecast says cloud cover for the nights so would make it significantly warmer. (No freezing) I guess we will know more next week. 

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Josh-O
19 hours ago, Hammer said:

Yes.  Last year I took precautions. Then when all the danger was past, I removed fans and etc.  An unforecasted dip in temps coupled with a very still night cooked my bananas and a couple palms.

that's a bummer. It's never fun to see damage on plants due to frost.

Where do you live Adam?

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sbpalms
15 hours ago, GottmitAlex said:

This afternoon we had hail for about 30 seconds. Sun was out immediately after though.

Wow, that's crazy! I didn't know that could happen in Tijuana. We had fairly heavy rain yesterday and we did not get above 60 degrees. This morning, I bottomed out at around 40 degrees, although the sun warmed it up really quickly.

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Hammer
6 hours ago, Josh-O said:

that's a bummer. It's never fun to see damage on plants due to frost.

Where do you live Adam?

Laguna Hills.  Just a couple minutes away from Palm Tree Jim. 

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enigma99

Now it's time to be worried everyone. It just got a lot worse. If this does indeed hit, it will be a freeze that only happens ever few years. Start preparing now and thinking how you plan to protect stuff to keep it alive and limit the damage.

Forecasts will be revised sharply down in the coming days, count it.

gfs_850_9e.gif

Edited by enigma99
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Chris Chance

Hopefully we don't see anymore freezing but January is always a month to worry about. So far the only palms that show damage are two kings. That's really expected in my area especially with no canopy. Christmas morning we got down to 30 with heavy frost which did some damage to canas and bananas but really surprising it wasn't worse. I protected my tribears since those are some of my favorites. 

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Ben in Norcal
9 minutes ago, Chris Chance said:

Hopefully we don't see anymore freezing but January is always a month to worry about. So far the only palms that show damage are two kings. That's really expected in my area especially with no canopy. Christmas morning we got down to 30 with heavy frost which did some damage to canas and bananas but really surprising it wasn't worse. I protected my tribears since those are some of my favorites. 

California is really interesting with all of the microclimates.  We didn't even get down to freezing on Christmas morning.  Even warmer this morning.

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Chris Chance
29 minutes ago, Ben in Norcal said:

California is really interesting with all of the microclimates.  We didn't even get down to freezing on Christmas morning.  Even warmer this morning.

This morning was 43 which is a big difference in one day. Truly is funny the way the cold works. I really believe it depends on wind and location. Sometimes you dodge the bullet and sometimes your area is the target.

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enigma99
1 hour ago, Ben in Norcal said:

California is really interesting with all of the microclimates.  We didn't even get down to freezing on Christmas morning.  Even warmer this morning.

28 for me. 27 down the street. Forecast was 32 and 30 depending on the site. I guess a cold pocket in the upper atmosphere settled in. I don't even want to check since I didn't protect stuff much. (I was planning for low 30s) 

Yet 1 mile away on top of the hill stayed above freezing all night. Tempted to sell my house and move, I really wish I had more elevation

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enigma99

GFS 850 slightly warmer for January yet still cold. I just want the punishment to be over

Edited by enigma99

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Ben in Norcal
2 minutes ago, enigma99 said:

GFS 850 slightly warmer for January yet still cold. I just want the punishment to be over

You are stressing me out man!

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Chris Chance
8 minutes ago, enigma99 said:

28 for me. 27 down the street. Forecast was 32 and 30 depending on the site. I guess a cold pocket in the upper atmosphere settled in. I don't even want to check since I didn't protect stuff much. (I was planning for low 30s) 

Yet 1 mile away on top of the hill stayed above freezing all night. Tempted to sell my house and move, I really wish I had more elevation

I Know what You mean about moving. I really wish I could move to a much better climate but gotta take what I have now so making the best of it. Hopefully in a few years once the canopy forms in the back garden I should have better winters .

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enigma99
9 minutes ago, Chris Chance said:

I Know what You mean about moving. I really wish I could move to a much better climate but gotta take what I have now so making the best of it. Hopefully in a few years once the canopy forms in the back garden I should have better winters .

Yeah canopy really helps. I have none in the front after I just cut down a massive plum tree a couple months back. Backyard is full of large queens(only for protection!), bananas and medium sized kings. They all collectively hold heat in and it ends up being a couple degrees warmer all over. 

Edited by enigma99

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GottmitAlex

A nice 81F today. 

Tomorrow's forecast is set for 80F. Very nice.

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Ben in Norcal

Next week looks close to a disaster for Norcal...let's hope it moderates.

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enigma99
5 hours ago, Ben in Norcal said:

Next week looks close to a disaster for Norcal...let's hope it moderates.

My punishment for being Zone 10 for 3 years I guess. I put a lot of new stuff in this year and was hoping for another nice winter so everything can get established but it has been rough already this year and the worst has yet to come.

Edited by enigma99

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Josh-O
5 hours ago, Ben in Norcal said:

Next week looks close to a disaster for Norcal...let's hope it moderates.

just make sure to keep all your cold air up there.

Its been a very mild/warmer winter for us in San Diego

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Josh-O
On 12/25/2016, 11:50:49, enigma99 said:

Now it's time to be worried everyone. It just got a lot worse. If this does indeed hit, it will be a freeze that only happens ever few years. Start preparing now and thinking how you plan to protect stuff to keep it alive and limit the damage.

Forecasts will be revised sharply down in the coming days, count it.

gfs_850_9e.gif

 

Don't stress your self out. They get this SH#$ wrong half the time.

It's always good to have your preventative frost measures in place just in case

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WestCoastGal

I've seen these maps posted off and on and really not sure how to read them. For the last one posted for Jan. 4 for example, what does it indicate about the south SF Bay area? Is that degrees from normal? 

Tomorrow we are suppose to be in the 60s, and then rain coming in on Friday. We've had a number of mornings with frost on the ground already this month. A number of mornings with the car defroster on. Makes me wonder how I thought I left this behind when we moved from the midWest. Haven't been brave enough to check the 3 of our orange birds that didn't get covered the first night with frost cloth to see how badly they got hit. I think our DeWitt frost cloth is either rated 6-8 degrees or 10 degrees so hope we'll be okay with the birds and the dwarf orange in the coming weeks. Just noticed that the 10 degree version also allows rain and irrigation through....hmm...and can be kept on even in sunny days...hmmm. Have to check to see which one we bought.

BTW we turned off our irrigation a week or so ago. Should we be running it again a day or two before a really cold spell (bubblers at the larger palms and drips everywhere else--except lawn)? The palms should benefit from this Friday's rain but the birds being under the frost cloth won't really see any of it. 

Wunderground is projecting lows of 34, 32, 27, 28, 28, 30 for Sun. 1/1 - Fri 1/6. 

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enigma99

Lows in the 40s, freeze warning canceled :)

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Ben in Norcal
7 minutes ago, enigma99 said:

Lows in the 40s, freeze warning canceled :)

Let's hope!  That was looking ugly for a couple of days there.

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SHEP

So relieved....  Visions of '90 here.  When Concord was predicted at 26 F, I usually figure I am 5 degrees below that.  My alpine plants are dancing around with this weather.  We spent Christmas Eve and day drilling tufa rocks for #41 Saxifragas that arrived.  Cecile 

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Josh-O

you nor-cal boys dodged a bullet

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Josh-O
Just now, Josh-O said:

you nor-cal boys dodged a bullet

and gals :)

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Jim in Los Altos

Wednesday and Thursday nights now predicted to be twenty degrees higher than predictions from two days ago. Lots of rain also in the forecast versus clear nights. It just shows what an inexact science meteorology remains as well as climatology. With all of today's sophisticated equipment, forecasting is about as accurate as it was forty years ago.

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Silas_Sancona
25 minutes ago, Jim in Los Altos said:

Wednesday and Thursday nights now predicted to be twenty degrees higher than predictions from two days ago. Lots of rain also in the forecast versus clear nights. It just shows what an inexact science meteorology remains as well as climatology. With all of today's sophisticated equipment, forecasting is about as accurate as it was forty years ago.

True true, to a degree..  as stated, this "suggested" weather event is a great example. After seeing Daniel Swain's twitter post (Weather West Blog) earlier in the week about how there were indications of a potential Artic intrusion for the west coast, it was only logical to closely follow the 10 day locally since Arizona is often second in line whenever big cold screams south out of Western Canada and the Pac. northwest. Aside from Accuweather, which itself took a day or so to pick up on it, other sites I monitor daily weren't as bullish on shoving the core of the cold down the coast, or southeastward. 

Before work on Wednesday, I did my usual check of both Accuweather and 06z model run on Tropical Tidbits. AccuWeather suggested forecast for next Thursday had us suddenly diving to a potential (obscene) low of 21F, with a couple other days in the high 20s. While a couple mornings here can drop 28 or 29, the idea of barely above 20 seemed extreme. 

Checking several other sites, and running the model run  again on tidbits, It was obvious that something wasn't clicking and that whatever data AccuWx was using was flawed, big time. 

Checking again when I got home, AccuWeather had raised us to 30 for the same morning. Data from tidbits was still consistent in it's "thought" that the overall pattern wasn't going to evolve as thought. Atm, we're not likely to drop any lower than the mid 40s at all next week, with most days in the 60s. Tidbits is still keeping any cold away, and even hinting at rising heights over the area beyond 300 hours. No doubt things can change, so I'm not ready to call the "all clear" for the next 6-8 weeks. Just find it interesting that, of all the sites that have shown relatively consistent forecasts thus far, Tidbits has been a lot closer than others. 

For now, I hope everyone is breathing a little easier, and ready to enjoy the start of the new year.

 

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Ben in Norcal
8 hours ago, Jim in Los Altos said:

Wednesday and Thursday nights now predicted to be twenty degrees higher than predictions from two days ago. Lots of rain also in the forecast versus clear nights. It just shows what an inexact science meteorology remains as well as climatology. With all of today's sophisticated equipment, forecasting is about as accurate as it was forty years ago.

I'm not sure I have ever noticed such a massive swing in expectations, Jim - this has been crazy.  That said, I will take it - I now no longer need to spend this weekend setting up propane heaters around the yard!!

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Josh-O
19 hours ago, Jim in Los Altos said:

Wednesday and Thursday nights now predicted to be twenty degrees higher than predictions from two days ago. Lots of rain also in the forecast versus clear nights. It just shows what an inexact science meteorology remains as well as climatology. With all of today's sophisticated equipment, forecasting is about as accurate as it was forty years ago.

lol....

soooo true!!:greenthumb:

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WestCoastGal
On 12/31/2016, 9:24:14, Josh-O said:

and gals :)

This is one gal that is pretty happy. Tonight at 37F is suppose to be our coldest now for quite a while. Start of a good year (rain and several degrees above freezing) but don't want to jinx it.

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enigma99

The models didn't account for an area of low pressure coming from due west and parking over Norcal, effectively being a weather shield. The cold air was there and it was going to do major damage. We got lucky

Lots of rain and I have a night in the 15 day with lows in the 50s. Can't wait highs in the 80s later this winter and Spring. Spraying daconild tomorrow ahead of this 2-3 week rain, plants are vulnerable after the freezes last Month 

 

Edited by enigma99

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Las Palmas Norte

We're definitely cold here this morning in the PNW (my place 24°F / -4.5°C) and the cold reaching well into N. California.

Cheers, Barrie.

 

sfct.us_nw.jpg

sfct.us_sw.jpg

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NorCalKing
1 hour ago, Las Palmas Norte said:

We're definitely cold here this morning in the PNW (my place 24°F / -4.5°C) and the cold reaching well into N. California.

Cheers, Barrie.

 

sfct.us_nw.jpg

sfct.us_sw.jpg

Thankfully not even close to my neck of the woods in Nor Cal. Overnight low was 41f.

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Jdiaz31089

I went to check back on the forecast for this week - where'd the mid 20s go??! lol. I worked myself up for nothing :lol:

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NorCalKing
2 hours ago, Jdiaz31089 said:

I went to check back on the forecast for this week - where'd the mid 20s go??! lol. I worked myself up for nothing :lol:

I know the feeling - I already had an oscillating heater in my shopping cart at Home Depot until I saw the revisions lol

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WestCoastGal

So now seeing one night below freezing...Thurs night into Friday...showing 31F (wunderground)...little wind during those hours...rain possible Wednesday and from Friday on. Accuweather is showing 33F for that night btw. Might want to check the forecast for that night in your area. Rest of the days and night look nice.

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WestCoastGal

Well that was one weather prediction that appears spot on. We're still around 29F. At 8:22a still seeing lots of high 20s and low 30s all around the SF Bay. Large swath from Palo Alto south past Gilroy, parts of Santa Cruz mts. and parts of East Bay and inland from Walnut Creek to Pleasanton. Lots of other cold pockets in the area. Looks like that's it for the next 10 days however.

We will be getting that pineapple express drenching this weekend though. Expect with the amount of rain that we're getting this winter that we could be seeing our mules displaying those lightning bolt fronds from boron loss come spring growth. Haven't seen that in quite a few years.

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