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trioderob

Hurricane Matt - could it hit Florida ???

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trioderob

it interesting  - a tropical storm called Nicole just developed east of Matt - no threat to the states but on a paralleled course 

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Matthew92

Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard county line under a Hurricane Watch, with a Tropical Storm Watch in effect southward from south of Deerfield Beach to the Seven Mile Bridge in the Florida Keys, including Lake Okeechobee.

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PalmatierMeg
17 hours ago, Yunder Wækraus said:

I am freaking out! :-( my house and 25 years of books don't fit in my truck. Just my luck to move to a barrier island a year before everything goes to $#%@. I have no idea where we will go to shelter. Somehow the local high school doesn't seem that safe as an option.

Freaking out won't help you. Your city/county should have an emergency management center. Contact them for recommendations. If you are told to evacuate, find out where to go (probably inland). Fill your car gas tanks now before supplies run out. If you have a generator, fill gas cans to fuel it. If you are on the ocean, storm surge is your biggest enemy and no one can fight that esp. if your house isn't on stilts (I hope you have flood insurance). If you have storm shutters prepare to put them up. Your area should have color coded maps with zones designated "Tropical Storm, Cat 1, 2, 3, 4, 5" where you can see how much danger you may be in given the strength of the storm. In my area, all the islands are vulnerable to even tropical storms. My home is on the border of Cat 2 & 3. But we were at home (30 minutes notice & no gas available anyway) for Charley, which was a Cat 4, and suffered only yard & roof damage. However, I am several miles from the Gulf. If storm surge wipes me out the whole city is pretty much underwater. In the case of Charley, we lost electricity for nearly a week but had a generator and gas to run our fridge.

If you decide to go to a shelter, be aware most of them don't allow pets. But leaving an animal at home may be a death sentence. I have two cats, one of them totally blind, and I would never abandon them. If you feel the same, make sure to have a crate for your pets.

Other thoughts:

move your container garden into the house or garage

if you have a pool sink porch furniture etc.  in it (really)

Make sure to have batteries & flashlights (candles are dangerous)

If the storm gets close enough your electric company may cut off power to prevent fires.  A battery-powered radio/tv will be helpful.

 

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Funkthulhu

*feels mild electric shock in hair*

*rubs neck*  What is that?  Something I haven't felt in so long. . . 

!!!  

My Hurricane Sense is Tingling!  (Starts monitoring Cyclocane and other weather news...)

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NatureGirl

This looks bad for us. I'm just south of Cocoa Beach, or about half hour from the Cape. We're right on the barrier island. I'm already staging my small palms near the garage. This is worst than a freeze as far as my potted stuff goes. It will all have to be moved or the wind will ruin it. My neighbor is putting up his shutters right now. Everyone is panicking, all the stores are packed, there's no water to be found, gas stations have huge long lines (and I need gas). Can't wait for the power to go out, that's gonna really suck.

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rick
18 minutes ago, NatureGirl said:

This looks bad for us. I'm just south of Cocoa Beach, or about half hour from the Cape. We're right on the barrier island. I'm already staging my small palms near the garage. This is worst than a freeze as far as my potted stuff goes. It will all have to be moved or the wind will ruin it. My neighbor is putting up his shutters right now. Everyone is panicking, all the stores are packed, there's no water to be found, gas stations have huge long lines (and I need gas). Can't wait for the power to go out, that's gonna really suck.

Not much better down here. I'll probably spend a good portion of this evening moving everything in pots to the garage.  I had to go to 3 different stores to find one with any water. Everywhere else was like this.20161004_155713.thumb.jpg.76503231b3b53f

Bread and canned goods aisles looked pretty similar. Luckily I filled up this weekend since every gas station near me had a line. 

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Alicehunter2000

Might not be a bad idea to fill up the tank and grab some water even for those on the Gulf Coast.....some uncertainty as to how far west this might go. You all on the East Coast.....prepare for long term power outages. Good Luck.

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Laaz

Starting tomorrow (Wed) at 3 PM all incoming lanes of I-26 will be reversed to outgoing only here in Charleston. All schools are closed until further notice.

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Matthew92

5pm cone has shifted farther West

.153536W5_NL_sm.gif.6a2b302f323b8b5d86c5d

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PalmatierMeg
1 hour ago, NatureGirl said:

This looks bad for us. I'm just south of Cocoa Beach, or about half hour from the Cape. We're right on the barrier island. I'm already staging my small palms near the garage. This is worst than a freeze as far as my potted stuff goes. It will all have to be moved or the wind will ruin it. My neighbor is putting up his shutters right now. Everyone is panicking, all the stores are packed, there's no water to be found, gas stations have huge long lines (and I need gas). Can't wait for the power to go out, that's gonna really suck.

Charlene & Rick, my heart goes out to you. Praying for the best for everyone over there. We learned the hard way to gas up, yadda, yadda 2-3 days out. My husband did that & filled cans for the generator because he had bad vibes about this storm.

I just learned that the European Model tracks this storm even further west so it might come ashore in east central FL.

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Yunder Wækraus
5 hours ago, PalmatierMeg said:

Freaking out won't help you. Your city/county should have an emergency management center. Contact them for recommendations. If you are told to evacuate, find out where to go (probably inland). Fill your car gas tanks now before supplies run out. If you have a generator, fill gas cans to fuel it. If you are on the ocean, storm surge is your biggest enemy and no one can fight that esp. if your house isn't on stilts (I hope you have flood insurance). If you have storm shutters prepare to put them up. Your area should have color coded maps with zones designated "Tropical Storm, Cat 1, 2, 3, 4, 5" where you can see how much danger you may be in given the strength of the storm. In my area, all the islands are vulnerable to even tropical storms. My home is on the border of Cat 2 & 3. But we were at home (30 minutes notice & no gas available anyway) for Charley, which was a Cat 4, and suffered only yard & roof damage. However, I am several miles from the Gulf. If storm surge wipes me out the whole city is pretty much underwater. In the case of Charley, we lost electricity for nearly a week but had a generator and gas to run our fridge.

If you decide to go to a shelter, be aware most of them don't allow pets. But leaving an animal at home may be a death sentence. I have two cats, one of them totally blind, and I would never abandon them. If you feel the same, make sure to have a crate for your pets.

Other thoughts:

move your container garden into the house or garage

if you have a pool sink porch furniture etc.  in it (really)

Make sure to have batteries & flashlights (candles are dangerous)

If the storm gets close enough your electric company may cut off power to prevent fires.  A battery-powered radio/tv will be helpful.

 

We have portable snacks that would feed the six of us for about 48 hours, and we also have storage for perhaps a week to two weeks in our home ( though that won't help us much if we are forced to evacuate and cannot return to our home ). We have about 12 gallons of bottled water that we can throw in the truck and take with us, and we have about another 15 gallons of drinking water in the garage. I started topping off the gas in her we have about 12 gallons of bottled water that we can throw in the truck and take with us, and we have about another 15 gallons of drinking water in the garage. I started topping off the gas in our truck yesterday,  though this evening was the first time I saw panicking at the gas pumps. I spent about $400 today on wood and tools, which was way more than I could afford, and I'll be spending tomorrow cutting the wood to fit and trying to protect our windows and doors.  I still don't know where I will go if we have to evacuate, though I do have the hurricane preparedness for Brevard County and I am aware of all of the shelter points locally. Our neighborhood is supposed to evacuate to the high school.  Thankfully, I have neither pets nor many potted plants. I just wish I knew sure that my library will be protected. Best of luck to all of you out there. Obviously, life and limb are more important than bricks and plants, so be sure to get off the island.

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Palmaceae

The latest models are showing Matthew either skimming the east coast of Florida or making landfall on the east coast. But one of the outlier models, the NAVGEM is still showing it making landfall in SE Florida and coming across the state near the SW coast and toward the big bend area. Even though that model may not be correct it has shown the westward movement of the track which the other models followed, but more east, so I would not ignore it completely. Even the NOAA weather forecast is showing Ft Myers with a possibility of tropical storm conditions. 

Some of the models (one is the Euro) are even showing the possiblity of Matthew looping around and coming back to Florida after it moves up to the Carolinas. That is because of the Bermuda high getting stronger and the new tropical storm Nicole. 

Whatever the track turns out to be, most of the state will feel the effects. Be safe everyone!

 

Screenshot_2016-10-04-20-21-27.png

navgem_z500_mslp_us_10.png

navgem_z500_mslp_us_11.png

navgem_z500_mslp_us_13.png

navgem_z500_mslp_us_14.png

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Palmarum

Time to get everything if you haven't already, don't spare the beer and poptarts...

Ryan

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RedRabbit
29 minutes ago, Palmaceae said:

The latest models are showing Matthew either skimming the east coast of Florida or making landfall on the east coast. But one of the outlier models, the NAVGEM is still showing it making landfall in SE Florida and coming across the state near the SW coast and toward the big bend area. Even though that model may not be correct it has shown the westward movement of the track which the other models followed, but more east, so I would not ignore it completely. Even the NOAA weather forecast is showing Ft Myers with a possibility of tropical storm conditions. 

Some of the models (one is the Euro) are even showing the possiblity of Matthew looping around and coming back to Florida after it moves up to the Carolinas. That is because of the Bermuda high getting stronger and the new tropical storm Nicole. 

Whatever the track turns out to be, most of the state will feel the effects. Be safe everyone!

NAVGEM looks like the worst case scenario where it hits both Miami and Tampa... The Euro is really getting interesting. Looping out in the ocean then hitting Florida? Now that would really be something! 

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DCA_Palm_Fan

I'm currently in Broward, 1 mile inland from the ocean between sea ranch lakes and Fort Lauderdale by the sea.  Hurricane warnings just issued from the broward / Miami dade line, up to around Flagler beach.    This is what we are seeing here for our likely impacts.    All supplies, gas, money, etc, were gotten today.   Shutters going on the house tomorrow.   

 

 

IMG_9059.PNG

IMG_9060.JPG

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NatureGirl

Looks like there's a bulls eye right on Satellite Beach. Gonna take all day to put all my palms in. Shutters are up. Mandatory evacuation. Keep your fingers crossed it stays off shore. Farewell my palm friends. (I know too dramatic):winkie: :badday:

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Alicehunter2000

One positive note...if it stays offshore .....you all will get the better side of the storm....this makes a big difference

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Palmaceae

I would expect at 11 eastern today from the NHC a westward/southward movement of the track as Matthew is a bit west this morning than forecasted. So us on the west coast really need to keep watch for any changes.

Check this picture out, Matthew is truly a monster, and no it is not photo shopped.

 

MattMonster.jpg

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Alicehunter2000

That's an old pic .... but the latest is almost just as concerning .... the eye wall is reorganizing quickly after Cuba

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Palmaceae
18 minutes ago, Alicehunter2000 said:

That's an old pic .... but the latest is almost just as concerning .... the eye wall is reorganizing quickly after Cuba

Yes it was going over Haiti at the time, but what I was saying it looks like a skull, kind of scary!

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RedRabbit
25 minutes ago, Palmaceae said:

I would expect at 11 eastern today from the NHC a westward/southward movement of the track as Matthew is a bit west this morning than forecasted. So us on the west coast really need to keep watch for any changes.

Check this picture out, Matthew is truly a monster, and no it is not photo shopped.

 

MattMonster.jpg

Just hitting Florida directly would be a better scenario than brushing it then looping around in the Atlantic only to come back and hit as a 4/5... What a storm. :/

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DCA_Palm_Fan
1 hour ago, Palmaceae said:

I would expect at 11 eastern today from the NHC a westward/southward movement of the track as Matthew is a bit west this morning than forecasted. So us on the west coast really need to keep watch for any changes.

Check this picture out, Matthew is truly a monster, and no it is not photo shopped.

 

MattMonster.jpg

I'm currently in Broward, 1 mile inland from the ocean between sea ranch lakes and Fort Lauderdale by the sea.  Hurricane warnings just issued from the broward / Miami dade line, up to around Flagler beach.    This is what we are seeing here for our likely impacts.    All supplies, gas, money, etc, were gotten today.   Shutters going on the house tomorrow.   

 

I saw that when it aired creepy and sinister as all hell.   We're shuttering the house in ft Lauderdale today.   No evac yet.  Planning to ride it out here.  

IMG_9125.JPG

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Palmaceae

OK latest GFS run, continue the movement to the west, making landfall near WPB and remaining inland all the way through Jacksonville, and the folks in Central Florida needs to be prepared and notice Orlando is very close to the eye.

Then later in the run it shows Matthew loop around after Jacksonville and come back to Florida between WPB and Miami as a weaker storm.

 

matt 10052016 1.PNG

matt 10052016 2.PNG

matt 10052016 3.PNG

matt 10052016 4.PNG

matt 10052016 5.PNG

matt 10052016 6.PNG

matt 10052016 7.PNG

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Alicehunter2000

Oooh....didn't notice the sinister skull....its October too.

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Keith N Tampa (ex SoJax)
32 minutes ago, Alicehunter2000 said:

Oooh....didn't notice the sinister skull....its October too.

Happy Halloween!  I shall ruin your October.  My name is Matthew.  

BTW, here is my forecast some 80 miles from the Atlantic....  Had planned to go to Searle Bros Extravaganza, but might be doing water run east...to help out friends that are near the path.  Lets hope its not as bad as forecast...thats often the case.  

... Tropical Storm Warning in effect... 

A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm wind conditions are 
expected somewhere within this area and within the next 36 hours

* locations affected
    - Lakeland
    - Winter Haven
    - Bartow

* wind
    - latest local forecast: equivalent tropical storm force wind
        - peak wind forecast: 30-40 mph with gusts to 55 mph
        - window for tropical storm force winds: Thursday evening 
          until Friday evening

    - current threat to life and property: moderate
        - the wind threat has remained nearly steady from the 
          previous assessment.
        - Remain braced against the reasonable threat for strong 
          tropical storm force wind of 58 to 73 mph.
        - To be safe, efforts should fully focus on protecting life. 
          Properties remain subject to significant wind impacts.
        - Now is the time to hide from the wind. Failure to 
          adequately shelter may result in serious injury, or in some 
          cases loss of life. Remain sheltered until the hazardous 
          wind subsides.

    - Potential impacts: unfolding
        - potential impacts from the main wind event are unfolding.
        - The extent of realized impacts will depend on the actual 
          strength, duration, and exposure of the wind as experienced 
          at particular locations.

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Xhoniwaters1

Best of luck with you guys on the east coast! Don't stick around unless you are totally prepared for some hell. Especially beach locations. 

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SubTropicRay

European model wind field forecast

 

IMG_1881.JPG

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Dave-Vero

Mandatory evacuation for the Brevard County barrier island tomorrow (Cocoa Beach, Satellite Beach, Indialantic, Indian Harbor, Melbourne, Melbourne Beach, etc.).  Forecasts and hurricane precautions seem to be emphasizing the possibility of Matthew's eye wall running along the barrier island with 110+ mph winds.  Probably worse than what we saw in 2004.    

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RedRabbit

IMG_2204.GIF.70209078fa78b059c4edca7b9f5The 5pm advisory shows a technical landfall around Cape Canaveral. 

Edited by RedRabbit

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Palmaceae

Tropical storm watches now up from Naples to Cedar Key, so as I said before most of the state will feel Matthew's affects. Be safe everyone,  please take this storm seriously as this is a major storm that will cause major damage in a long wide extended area. This is not a storm to take chances with.

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Xhoniwaters1

Forecasting storm surge up to 8 feet in some areas 

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Alicehunter2000

Cone shifted west....Palm Beach?

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Laaz

Stay safe. A bit of over reaction I think here in Charleston No east bound traffic on I-26, all lanes are outgoing only...

 

vovokw.jpg2hi6u06.jpg

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SubTropicRay

Cone shifted north.  Landfall north of Vero Beach and scrapping the coast all the way to Jax. 

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SubTropicRay

The latest wind field map from the European model.

IMG_0892.JPG

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Palmaceae

Matthew has a double eye wall now, the outer eye wall is 38 miles in diameter, it is huge. The inner eye wall will go away and the outer should shrink down a bit, so Matthew is in transition now.

Here in SW Florida we are about to get hit with the outer bands with rain.

 

Double Eye Wall.PNG

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Alicehunter2000

Yeh...looks like it is shifting more north....might stay offshore?

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DoomsDave
44 minutes ago, Alicehunter2000 said:

Yeh...looks like it is shifting more north....might stay offshore?

As Rumi might have said, Trust in God, but move inland.

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trioderob

I think that I just saw a shift to the west right after leaving the bahamas - anyone else notice this on the radar ?

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Alicehunter2000

Nah...looks like it's going north....maybe the Cape....Florida might be spared the worst.....I think it's going to stay offshore

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