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trioderob

Hurricane Matt - could it hit Florida ???

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trioderob

looks like there is a chance Florida could get hit hard.

check National Hurricane center for details 

(that mo-fo is taking a super low track with a dramatic swing to the north - if it moves just alittle to the west of the spaghetti models - worse case it could transverse south to north the entire state....jast sayin :wacko:

Edited by trioderob

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nitsua0895

If it takes a more western track, I wonder if the mountainous terrain in Cuba could cause it to weaken before it reaches south Florida. 

I imagine the worst case scenario is for the eye to somehow miss land entirely(maybe between Cuba and Haiti) and then the Bahamas or somewhere along the east coast could get hit by a major hurricane. 

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Palmaceae

It is a possibility especially the east coast of Florida, but most models are bringing it east of Florida, but the eastern seaboard of the CONUS needs to watch it closely. Could be a strong one.

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_9.png

gfs_z500_mslp_us_23.png

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bubba

Palmaceae is showing the likely track. Late September Hurricuns that develop in the Eastern Carribe follow that Western Bahama/Exuma curve. Hope it just trends West and way out to nowhere. Florida's rodeo starts in October, when we will need to watch those Hurricuns that develop in the Western Carribe and head East. October Carribe Sidewinders (See Wilma).

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trioderob

rapid intensification happening - this one is worth keeping an eye on

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Palmaceae

Matthew is now a cat 3 storm with winds up to 115mph, here is the latest GFS runs, still east of Florida but getting closer than the previous runs. It will get stronger and with the forecasted track being so close to Florida I would not let your guard down as a small move to the west could happen. We in Florida will be affected even if it does not make landfall here, even here on the west coast of Florida will feel the affects. The folks in Jamaica, Cuba and the Bahamas will get hit hard.    

 

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SubTropicRay

On that last track, most of Florida will enjoy breezy but sunny weather with lower humidity.  That track will drag down drier air on the storm's western periphery.

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Palmaceae
13 minutes ago, SubTropicRay said:

On that last track, the west coast of Florida will enjoy breezy but sunny weather with lower humidity.  That track will drag down drier air on the storm's western periphery.

Exactly!  Probably be the end of the raining season also.

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Palmaceae

The Euro just ran and has a similar path but a bit further east, slower moving and erratic movement (having trouble figuring out the high pressure north of it), it also depends on how strong it gets, the stronger it gets the further east it will go.  The Euro certainly shows it a much stronger storm than the GFS, as it is showing a cat 5 in the Bahamas very near the Florida coast.

 

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matthew euro5.PNG

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bubba

Looks like big waves on Reef Road! Another late September East Caribe Hurricun path. October Sidewinders (West to East) around the corner. Florida was very lucky to miss Cape Verde atom smashers this year. They can still go nuclear in South Caribe in October (See 1780!). David was a Cape Verde (1979) that hugged the Coast and rumbled louder than the San Andreas Fault. That is no worry for Trioderob, who would have been stumped years ago for trying to diss our next President. Comprende?

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Palmaceae

Not liking the latest GFS run, much closer th Florida. But still several days out.

 

gfs_z500_mslp_watl_22.png

gfs_z500_mslp_watl_24.png

gfs_z500_mslp_watl_25.png

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trioderob

Jamaica looks like it could take a severe blow - Kingston in the eyewall bulleye

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RedRabbit

The 11pm advisory has it up to a Cat 5 now. :bemused:

It still looks to be going east of Florida.

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trioderob

this is now a major event - Jamaica will face total devastation if it hits at this intensity !

 

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RedRabbit

Some of the models have this eventually impacting the outer banks:

14L_gefs_latest.png

Of course, some other models take it into Florida but I'd be more concerned if I were in North Carolina. 

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Palmaceae

The NHC now has SE Florida in the cone. Looks like they are putting more faith in the GFS than some of the others as the latest Euro has it going well east of Florida and the eastern seaboard.

Pray for the people in Jamaica as it will get slammed near Kingston.

 

IMG_0424.GIF

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RedRabbit
8 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

Some of the models have this eventually impacting the outer banks:

14L_gefs_latest.png

Of course, some other models take it into Florida but I'd be more concerned if I were in North Carolina. 

FYI, when I posted this it was showing a different track. Apparently this image isn't static as it has already updated once... 

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Palmaceae

Latest GFS looks like it may spare Jamaica, at least the strongest winds, but moving closer to Haiti. Still looks to brush the east coast of Florida and right over the Bahamas, a little too close for comfort. Then getting extremely close the the Outer Banks of NC, then ending up in New England around Boston. 

But this path is all dependent on when Matthew decides to move north, which it has not yet, it is more or less stationary currently. I certainly would not like to be in that storm now!

 

gfs_z500_mslp_watl_10.png

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rb_lalo-animated.gif

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Palmaceae

The UKMET model has for several days now and still running Matthew into SE Florida and up the coast, so even though some models are still a bit east of Florida, if I was in SE Florida I would be preparing soon. There is a new invest east of the islands and that can move things around. Very complicated forecast, the NHC has their work cut out for them. Even if it does not make landfall in Florida we can still have tropical force winds well into Florida.

 

PNM_panel.gif

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RedRabbit
18 hours ago, Palmaceae said:

Latest GFS looks like it may spare Jamaica, at least the strongest winds, but moving closer to Haiti. Still looks to brush the east coast of Florida and right over the Bahamas, a little too close for comfort. Then getting extremely close the the Outer Banks of NC, then ending up in New England around Boston. 

But this path is all dependent on when Matthew decides to move north, which it has not yet, it is more or less stationary currently. I certainly would not like to be in that storm now!

That's interesting, Cape Hatteras and Cape Cod need to be watching this closely!

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SubTropicRay
On ‎9‎/‎30‎/‎2016‎ ‎2‎:‎09‎:‎38‎, Palmaceae said:

Exactly!  Probably be the end of the raining season also.

Considering the rainy season never really started up here, I won't miss it much.  85F and dry sure beats 93F and dry :lol:.

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Palmaceae
1 hour ago, SubTropicRay said:

Considering the rainy season never really started up here, I won't miss it much.  85F and dry sure beats 93F and dry :lol:.

Sorry you guys did not get much of a rainy season, we did pretty good here in SW Florida.

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Palmaceae

The latest Euro run has Matthew brushing the east coast of Florida a lot closer than previous runs, especially East Central Florida. Could be a cat3 or 4 offshore, way too close for comfort.

 

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Palmaceae

The latest GFS run agree with the Euro with the track being closer to the East coast of Florida but weaker.  This is a good time to prepare if you have not already as a move just a few miles west could be a big difference in conditions.

It is also showing landfall in South Carolina and moving up to the Outer Banks of NC, so I hope everyone there is preparing.

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trioderob

Matthew has had an unusually tight, arguably symbiotic connection to a large and powerful convective complex now located to his east (formerly east-southeast). This thunderstorm complex is producing rain rates that are off the hook, and is ever so slowly rotating around Matthew's center ... sort of a tanker of an outer band for lack of a better description ... and is about to begin affecting the island of Hispaniola, home to Haiti and the Dominican Republic, with unforgiving torrential rain.

Whether or not the core of Matthew makes a direct hit on Hispaniola, and it likely will come very close if not doing so, the risk of catastrophic flooding and mudslides is going up exponentially tonight. Those in this path need to be paying especially close attention not only to the center of Matthew's circulation, but his entirety, especially including this peripherally connected massive thunderstorm complex, and rushing life-saving precautions to completion on that island now.

MatthewandConvectiveComplexOct320160315z
 

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Palmaceae

The latest NAVGEM model shows something very concerning. Landfall near Miami and exiting Tampa.  In the end it will probably be a hybrid of all the models, but that Bermuda ridge is getting stronger than forecasted, if it gets stronger, the NAVGEM could be correct, I hope not.

 

navgem.gif

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trioderob

WOW - if that where to come true it would be catastrophic for the country  - biggest natural disaster of all time

 

it would take out the entire south east coast

Edited by trioderob

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Palmaceae

From the NHC, the cone moves west, and may move even more west as time goes on. Notice this a cat 3-4 storm off our coast or right on it.

 

204647W5_NL_sm.gif

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PalmatierMeg

Not good. Glad we filled our gas cans. The run on gas stations should begin at any time. SFL may feel the effects within 48 hours. And the snowbirds are showing up in droves  - bet they're regretting it now.

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RedRabbit

Things are getting pretty serious at this point. Even if it doesn't hit Florida it now seems likely we will have a major hurricane making landfall somewhere in the Southeast. :bemused:

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NorCalKing

This is getting scarier with every update. Take care down there guys.

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Yunder Wækraus

I am freaking out! :-( my house and 25 years of books don't fit in my truck. Just my luck to move to a barrier island a year before everything goes to $#%@. I have no idea where we will go to shelter. Somehow the local high school doesn't seem that safe as an option.

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Palmaceae

I am sure the watches and warnings will be up tomorrow from the Keys to Jacksonville, already seeing TS and hurricane conditions possible in the local forecast on the east coast.

Currently Matthews pressure is down to 935mb, that is a serious hurricane!  Looks to make landfall on the western tip of Haiti, looks like a total disaster, then it will head to Cuba tomorrow, they need prayers.

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Palmaceae

Wind forecast.

Palm Beach and Titusville.

Ct4d1gNUAAAPEZz.jpg

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Laaz

We're keeping a close eye on it here in Charleston.

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Dave-Vero

National Weather Service offices in Melbourne and Miami today started including "possible hurricane conditions" in their forecasts for Thursday night and Friday.  We should see the first watches tomorrow, and maybe some reports from Haiti on damage caused by rain.

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Matthew92

Latest model runs continue to favor westward- latest GFS has it coming ashore into Charleston. Still, anywhere South FL to NC- I would be ready.

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trioderob

ok folks I posted this 5 days ago and now Florida may in fact be facing a major hurricane hit.

 

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Palmaceae

Tropical storm watch just issued in the Middle and Upper Keys, I am sure the warnings will expand north shortly.

..A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER/MIDDLE KEYS...

GMZ031-032-042-043-052-053-072-073-042230-
/O.NEW.KKEY.TR.A.1014.161004T1418Z-000000T0000Z/
FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING BARNES SOUND, BLACKWATER SOUND, AND
BUTTONWOOD SOUND-
BAYSIDE AND GULF SIDE FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE-HAWK CHANNEL FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT TO THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE OUT
TO THE REEF-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
1018 AM EDT TUE OCT 4 2016

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING THE UPPER
AND MIDDLE KEYS.

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Laaz

Looks like the entire east coast is going to get hammered unless it moves east. Not going to be a fun weekend here...

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