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palmsOrl

Metro Orlando is now a zone 10a.  I have the data to back it up.

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Xenon
22 hours ago, NorCalKing said:

According to weather .com your all time record was -5F. So I wouldn't think 9A is in the cards anytime soon. Like most of north florida you just don't have any protection from the big deep polar vortexes that can easily reach Montgomery when they dip far enough every few winters.

 

https://weather.com/weather/monthly/l/USAL0375:1:US

What zone would you consider Brownsville, Texas to be in?

January mean temp: ~61F 

Annual mean temp: ~74F

25 year avg. absolute minimum low: ~34F (high: 40F, low: 28F)

50 year avg. absolute minimum low: ~32F (high: 40F, low: 16F)

100 year avg. absolute minimum low: ~31F (high: 40F, low: 16F)

Record lows: 12F (1899), 16F (1989)

 

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NorCalKing
1 hour ago, Xenon said:

What zone would you consider Brownsville, Texas to be in?

January mean temp: ~61F 

Annual mean temp: ~74F

25 year avg. absolute minimum low: ~34F (high: 40F, low: 28F)

50 year avg. absolute minimum low: ~32F (high: 40F, low: 16F)

100 year avg. absolute minimum low: ~31F (high: 40F, low: 16F)

Record lows: 12F (1899), 16F (1989)

 

I haven't looked at what USDA classifies it, however based on your all time record low, I'd place it very similar to my zone; 9B. My all-time low is 18F.

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RedRabbit
8 hours ago, palmsOrl said:

Metro Orlando is now a zone 10a.  I have the data to back it up.

Yeah, it is. I looked at Orlando Executive Airport and the avg. annual low was 32.43 going back to 2000... How much of Metro Orlando is 10a is another question, but there's no doubt a fair portion of it is over the limit for Zone 10.

 

1 hour ago, Xenon said:

What zone would you consider Brownsville, Texas to be in?

January mean temp: ~61F 

Annual mean temp: ~74F

25 year avg. absolute minimum low: ~34F (high: 40F, low: 28F)

50 year avg. absolute minimum low: ~32F (high: 40F, low: 16F)

100 year avg. absolute minimum low: ~31F (high: 40F, low: 16F)

Record lows: 12F (1899), 16F (1989)

 

10a by all 3 measures; and that's not a matter of opinion but simply factual. 10a is defined as 30-35f avg annual lows so all of those measures fall into the 10a range. Strictly speaking absolute lows don't matter, just the average annual lows (although the exact opposite is true as far as palms are concerned.) I did the math going back to 2000 and Brownsville was averaged 33.25 and Port Isabel was 33.29.

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palmsOrl
3 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

Yeah, it is. I looked at Orlando Executive Airport and the avg. annual low was 32.43 going back to 2000... How much of Metro Orlando is 10a is another question, but there's no doubt a fair portion of it is over the limit for Zone 10.

 

10a by all 3 measures; and that's not a matter of opinion but simply factual. 10a is defined as 30-35f avg annual lows so all of those measures fall into the 10a range. Strictly speaking absolute lows don't matter, just the average annual lows (although the exact opposite is true as far as palms are concerned.) I did the math going back to 2000 and Brownsville was averaged 33.25 and Port Isabel was 33.29.

Exactly.  Even with the inclusion of 30 years of data, both the Orlando International Airport and Orlando Executive Airports average low 30s for average annual lows.  As such, 10a palms in the Metro area and inner suburbs do well and are seldom substantially damaged.  My 10a palms survived 2010, the 10b palms were all wiped out.  I think within the next 10-20 years, the detailed official zone maps will consistently show this 10a area.

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RedRabbit
11 minutes ago, palmsOrl said:

Exactly.  Even with the inclusion of 30 years of data, both the Orlando International Airport and Orlando Executive Airports average low 30s for average annual lows.  As such, 10a palms in the Metro area and inner suburbs do well and are seldom substantially damaged.  My 10a palms survived 2010, the 10b palms were all wiped out.  I think within the next 10-20 years, the detailed official zone maps will consistently show this 10a area.

I'm not so sure USDA will. I was clicking around at different locals today and for whatever reason the area around Leu was only rated at 27f. Interestingly they seem to think downtown St Pete is the warmest place on all of the west coast of Florida at 34f so when the next map comes out they may actually rate it at 10b... They also seem to think areas of S Tampa are warmer than Anna Maria Island so it is hard to have much faith in USDA when you see that, but to their credit they did get a few things right that surprised me so I'm not sure what to think of them.

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SubTropicRay

What map says S Tampa is warmer than Anna Maria??  That's really messed up if true.

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RedRabbit
10 hours ago, SubTropicRay said:

What map says S Tampa is warmer than Anna Maria??  That's really messed up if true.

USDA shows parts of South Tampa warmer than Anna Maria... You can only see this if you use their interactive map, let me show you how.

 

1. Go to the USDA interactive map here: http://planthardiness.ars.usda.gov/PHZMWeb/InteractiveMap.aspx

2. Zoom all the way in to the area you want to check.

3. Left-click your mouse on the exact spot and the Plant Hardiness Zone Values box will pop up giving you detailed information for that specific location.

4. The second line is Avg. Temp(F) so you can review that to see how warm/cold a location is within it's respective zone.

 

Here's Port Tampa:

571abc1086f36_PortTampa.thumb.jpg.85fde3

 

Here's Anna Maria:

571abc89d8159_AnnaMaria.thumb.jpg.c15289

 

Obviously they're way underestimating AMI, in reality it is a lot closer to 41.1 than 31.1. 

Edited by RedRabbit
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Zeeth
53 minutes ago, RedRabbit said:

USDA shows parts of South Tampa warmer than Anna Maria... You can only see this if you use their interactive map, let me show you how.

 

1. Go to the USDA interactive map here: http://planthardiness.ars.usda.gov/PHZMWeb/InteractiveMap.aspx

2. Zoom all the way in to the area you want to check.

3. Left-click your mouse on the exact spot and the Plant Hardiness Zone Values box will pop up giving you detailed information for that specific location.

4. The second line is Avg. Temp(F) so you can review that to see how warm/cold a location is within it's respective zone.

 

Here's Port Tampa:

571abc1086f36_PortTampa.thumb.jpg.85fde3

 

Here's Anna Maria:

571abc89d8159_AnnaMaria.thumb.jpg.c15289

 

Obviously they're way underestimating AMI, in reality it is a lot closer to 41.1 than 31.1. 

I've noticed that they tend to underestimate the island microclimates of AMI, Longboat and Lido, but they get the climate around Kopsick correct. I think it's because there isn't much hard data on the islands, but there is for St. Pete. There wasn't ever a weather station of any kind of any of the islands until the last few years. I don't even know how cold it got there in 2010 because there just isn't any data. 

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RedRabbit

I'm trying to learn Photoshop and figured I'd play around with the USDA map a little bit tonight... Based on my own calculations over the past 15yrs USDA tends to be 2-4f too low. I think it is reasonable to expect USDA to reflect this in the future barring no terrible freezes for the next few years. I wanted to see how the zones would shift if USDA took everything up by just 1 degree and you get something pretty similar to the Arbor Day map of the area. I still maintain this doesn't reflect reality too well, but this thread is about a future USDA map and based on their data I think we might see something like what I have below.

2012 (unchanged)

2012USDA.thumb.jpg.c74112a28fef8d22c4cac

 

2012 + 1f

plus1f.thumb.jpg.03ae5dec8df3a6e429874c1

10a and 9b are obvious per the legend, but the area that is from 29.1f - 30f is a shade that is between the two. Also, there is a small portion of St. Petersburg that would go into 10b. I went with red there just to make it stand out a little better because you really couldn't tell a difference if I used the 10b color from the legend.

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RedRabbit
On 4/22/2016, 9:03:32, Zeeth said:

I've noticed that they tend to underestimate the island microclimates of AMI, Longboat and Lido, but they get the climate around Kopsick correct. I think it's because there isn't much hard data on the islands, but there is for St. Pete. There wasn't ever a weather station of any kind of any of the islands until the last few years. I don't even know how cold it got there in 2010 because there just isn't any data. 

You're certainly right that they underestimate those barrier islands, I think it has been mentioned here before that part of St. Armands and Siesta Key are shown as 9b. They put Sanibel at 31-32f and Marco Island at 33.0f so they seem to think the area around Whitted is warmer than Marco Island... 

Edited by RedRabbit

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RedRabbit

I thought I'd share this map I found on Dave's Garden. I have no idea where they got it, but it seems pretty good. Supposedly it is USDA though it clearly doesn't match the current map.

Daves_Garden.gif.e5c70452f1d139330e70ea9

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kinzyjr
On 6/19/2016, 8:56:54, RedRabbit said:

I thought I'd share this map I found on Dave's Garden. I have no idea where they got it, but it seems pretty good. Supposedly it is USDA though it clearly doesn't match the current map.

Daves_Garden.gif.e5c70452f1d139330e70ea9

I've seen the map, and I think the little red blobs in the middle are supposed to be Orlando and Lakeland .  Certainly, they can't be putting a warm spot in Bartow (which is approximately where that blob is if the map is read literally) as there are at least a week's worth the days where they get frost there and I don't here.  I'm in both cities daily, and by the time I get to Highlands City, there is a 3F drop in the temperature during the winter.

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Sandy Loam

 

Bartow is only 20 minutes south of Lakeland. Why is Lakeland so much warmer?

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DCA_Palm_Fan
On 3/16/2016, 9:35:05, Funkthulhu said:

I don't quite understand the logic behind bumping up the zones.  

Granted, the "average" winter temperature is going up all across the globe, but that's not was the zone is about.  The Zones (by my understanding) represents the lowest temperature you can expect to see over the winter months.  It doesn't matter if most of the month of January is above 40 degrees if the first week of February the polar vortex rolls in with the low teens.  

I don't want to make this into a global warming thread, but additional energy in the atmosphere does two things.  First, it raises the annual average temperature around the globe and some regions may see sharp rises (or falls) in temp in various seasons.  Second, it adds a certain instability to the atmosphere.  More energy means more powerful weather systems and the instability of those weather systems is going to allow something like the polar vortex to penetrate further south than is has previously, and do so most years.  By this reasoning, I would think that the zones would drop not rise.  

Like I said, it doesn't matter if your win

 

ter is 10 degrees above the average 20 years ago, if you also get a week of record lows that kill everything.

anyway, my $0.02

100% that.   The second paragraph is very important.   Every winter when pieces of the polar vortex sweep southward and we get bitter cold snaps the deniers will cry that nothing is wrong because its frigid outside of their door. What some fail to understand is that these changes in climate and the warming of it, cause all kinds of extremes including some extreme cold outbreaks.   A year or two ago there was a map showing the entire planet's departure from normal average temps  Most of the entire world was significantly warmer than normal.  A few small parts were not, and one of those parts was a good chunk of the eastern United States. 

Interestingly enough this map puts a good chunk of the DC area, back into a zone 8.  The funny thing is that one of the prior current USDA maps had a little blob of zone 8 right around downtown dc and just around the Potomac river including near it in  northern VA.   Then that disappeared.  I will grant that there are most def zone 8A microclimates in that area for sure, but in general its too far inland and its far too easy for these polar air masses to reach it especially since they come from the northwest.  When we get a strong northest or east fetch without cold air already in place, the coldest its likely to get is 30s and 40s in the dead of winter.  Conversely when we get that same ocean air onshore flow in warm months, ( we had this for weeks on end in April and May) the highs would not get over 50-65.    Even if this area around DC were to become a zone 8 in totality, it would be a very different zone 8 than much further southern areas, or even Va Beach.  At least there when there are cold nights and days it does not last long and its back to the 50's/60's very quickly.  I don't see that ever being the case this far inland.   

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RedRabbit
20 hours ago, Sandy Loam said:

 

Bartow is only 20 minutes south of Lakeland. Why is Lakeland so much warmer?

Lakeland is probably urban enough to create a small heat island. That, and there are a few bigger lakes in the area.

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kinzyjr
On 12/14/2016, 11:35:18, Sandy Loam said:

Bartow is only 20 minutes south of Lakeland. Why is Lakeland so much warmer?

There are even parts of the city that are colder than the central, urban part.  There was a guy who lived in one of the more rural areas that recorded a low of 16.7F while the areas around the Lakeland Square Mall were in the mid-20s.  He posted a pic on another forum and had a screen name of jayinflorida.  Southeastern University has a weather station that typically reports higher temperatures, but that may be because it is higher off the ground than the other stations. 

When talking about the difference between Lakeland and Bartow, it's really splitting hairs, as I'm sure there are yards that have canopy and didn't get frost all the same as here.  We're also talking about record lows that are within 2F of each other.  Our record low is 20F (1962, 1985).  In the same freezes, Bartow recorded 18F (1962) and 20F (1985).

That being said, I would not classify Lakeland as any kind of Zone 10.  I prefer to think of us as a "very solid zone 9a."  Even in the "nice" winters, coconuts need a minor level of protection to thrive.  Royal palms do well unprotected, but some of the more tender zone 10a plants don't enjoy our nights, which are 5 to 10 degrees cooler than St. Pete or the other coastal areas.

7 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

Lakeland is probably urban enough to create a small heat island. That, and there are a few bigger lakes in the area.

Certainly!  Probably some level of elevation advantage in spots as well.  Lakeland Highlands Rd, Cleveland Heights Blvd., Kathleen Rd., and Mall Hill Drive have pretty significant hills for a Florida landscape.  US-98 from 540A down to Bartow doesn't have much variation in elevation.  Just an observation from driving around.

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DCA_Palm_Fan
On 12/15/2016, 12:15:39, DCA_Palm_Fan said:

 

Interestingly enough this map puts a good chunk of the DC area, back into a zone 8.  The funny thing is that one of the prior current USDA maps had a little blob of zone 8 right around downtown dc and just around the Potomac river including near it in  northern VA.   Then that disappeared.  I will grant that there are most def zone 8A microclimates in that area for sure, but in general its too far inland and its far too easy for these polar air masses to reach it especially since they come from the northwest.  When we get a strong northest or east fetch without cold air already in place, the coldest its likely to get is 30s and 40s in the dead of winter.  Conversely when we get that same ocean air onshore flow in warm months, ( we had this for weeks on end in April and May) the highs would not get over 50-65.    Even if this area around DC were to become a zone 8 in totality, it would be a very different zone 8 than much further southern areas, or even Va Beach.  At least there when there are cold nights and days it does not last long and its back to the 50's/60's very quickly.  I don't see that ever being the case this far inland.   

I'm quoting myself here because thankfully through continual back ups over the years, I have managed to fined screen shots of the map I mentioned above.   Here are the screen shots showing it and the blobs of zone 8 I talked about.  I had forgotten they had given downtown Baltimore a zone 8 blob too.  

Cheers.

 

Wash-BaltZones.jpg

zone map.jpg

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necturus

FYI, the idea that global warming will increase the frequency of extreme winter weather is by no means a universally held concept. The original study that prompted the flurry of media attention on the subject was based on modeling done by a group in Russia. Others (such as a prominent group at Caltech) disagree and have proposed a model that shows less extreme winter weather. Models can be very instructive, but the proof is in the pudding. If you look at data from the southeast, there has been a clear, statistically significant decline in the frequency of extreme average annual minimums, even if you throw out the cold 80s. For example, from 1931-1979, the Houston area saw temperatures 20 degrees or less roughly every 3 years. From 1990 onward, we have only seen such temperatures twice, coming out to once every 13 years. Curiously, when you throw out these values, the remaining lows are fairly consistent between the two eras, with only a slight positive trend. Thus, there may be a ceiling for the effects of global warming on USDA zones, at least in the near future.

Of course, the consequences of global warming will vary depending on where you live. Winter snow fall IS growing worse in northern latitudes because the storms are not making it as far south.

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climate change virginia

im for sure headed to 8a i live in the southern suburbs of dc I am 22 miles from dc going south.

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JLM

Im most definetly a cold 9a at this point. Although when it comes down to it, zones dont matter as all it takes is one night of a hard freeze and everything gets zapped.

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climate change virginia

poor polar bears :crying:

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climate change virginia

 i heard they may come out somewhere between 2022-2030

Edited by climate change virginia

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JLM

Is anyone else having issues getting onto the USDA Interactive map? It shows up with a privacy error everytime i try to even access the site. Its been doing this to me for the past 2 weeks.

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chinandega81
6 hours ago, JLM said:

Is anyone else having issues getting onto the USDA Interactive map? It shows up with a privacy error everytime i try to even access the site. Its been doing this to me for the past 2 weeks.

Yes, I have the same problem. It says it's unsafe and I can't access it either.

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climate change virginia

same

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EastCanadaTropicals
On 3/12/2016 at 2:09 AM, SailorBold said:

Havent heard of it..  but it would be nice if ABQ became a solid 8b lol

It would be nice if Quebec became zone 7a so i can experiment with growing Trcahys with mulch only.

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climate change virginia
On 12/18/2020 at 4:25 PM, EastCanadaTropicals said:

It would be nice if Quebec became zone 7a so i can experiment with growing Trcahys with mulch only.

your a looooong way off from zone 7a that could happen if the gulf stream changed direction and stuck along the east coast

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EastCanadaTropicals
1 minute ago, climate change virginia said:

your a looooong way off from zone 7a that could happen if the gulf stream changed direction and stuck along the east coast

I know, I was talking about extreme global warming.

Edited by EastCanadaTropicals

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JLM

A few days ago i let the part of the USDA that runs the site know that it was down and not many could access it due to certification being expired, and what do ya know? It works now :greenthumb:
I guess they pay more attention to things on Twitter than they do their emails?

Edited by JLM
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kinzyjr
26 minutes ago, JLM said:

A few days ago i let the part of the USDA that runs the site know that it was down and not many could access it due to certification being expired, and what do ya know? It works now :greenthumb:
I guess they pay more attention to things on Twitter than they do their emails?

Either that or you know some people who know some people ;)

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Sabal_Louisiana

So, you have the communities of Grand Isle and Buras in SE coastal Louisiana. Could make a case for them being 10a.

Winter low temperatures there are comparable with Galveston, maybe even Daytona or Corpus. Not that much lower than Orlando or Brownsville although mean winter temperature at those places are several degrees higher.

The problem is SE La is quite vulnerable to storm surge and coastal erosion. Lower Plaquemines Parish used to have huge orange trees that survived every freeze of the 60s and 80s only to be done in by salt water flooding from Hurricane Katrina.

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Aceraceae

One difference here per the central US dry continental record lows vs avg lows and minimums would be the introduction of a non frost-free zone 11. Current zone 10 areas are known to have hard freezes rarely, and in many places frost happens at radiational 40 degrees reported temp anyway (cue frost vs freeze free...)

So 2012 zone 11 such as keys and maimi Beach is where "frost free" now starts. But South Texas and spi would be a dry zone 11 similar to cali Mediterranean but with even more extreme rare lows. 

Zone 12 would be the new truly frost free, and like a refrigerator a place isn't guaranteed to be warm until zone 14 (>70F avg lows and records in the upper 60s), which even that can be a cool zone 14 such as in the case of an always room temp house or tropical highland, namely an equatorial Island mountain where a near mono temp elevation profile can be found.  

Or it can be an extremely hot zone 14 like Dallol Ethiopia no plant life but a 1960s mining town inhabited by AC free humans like mid-century south Florida. 

Either way a larger discrepancy between historic all time record lows and plant hardiness zone ratings. 

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Sabal_Louisiana

USDA cold hardiness zone maps need to be adjusted for annual variability.  That is, to show the average minimum temperature over a period of several years instead of just one.

There are parts of California or Arizona that are 8b or 9a where I would plant something with far more confidence than I would for places that are 9a or 8b in the south central or southeast US.

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GottmitAlex
9 minutes ago, Sabal_Louisiana said:

There are parts of California or Arizona that are 8b or 9a where I would plant something with far more confidence than I would for places that are 9a or 8b in the south central or southeast US.

I agree. It all depends on the species.

Case in point: Beccariophoenix alfredii. 

It can survive and thrive in a Cali 9A however, never in a Lousiana 9A. 

Humidity and the lack thereof are crucial factors for specific palms.

A Cali 9A is way different than a Florida/Louisiana 9A. So are the palms adjusted for those climates. 

 

 

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Silas_Sancona
9 minutes ago, Sabal_Louisiana said:

USDA cold hardiness zone maps need to be adjusted for annual variability.  That is, to show the average minimum temperature over a period of several years instead of just one.

There are parts of California or Arizona that are 8b or 9a where I would plant something with far more confidence than I would for places that are 9a or 8b in the south central or southeast US."

 The differences between each area has to do with the dry vs. wet factor ( Dry factor more significant here than in zone 8b- 9a areas of California, except perhaps the high desert/ mountains ) esp. during the winter,  And yes, that is one of those " localized factors " considerations should be added in to any zone map because there can be a huge difference in what can survive in each area. 

 

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Sabal_Louisiana

I agree. It is not just about absolute temperature. I guess you could come up with a formula that takes into account several environmental factors and climatic variables and weigh them accordingly.

These maps are meant to be just a basic guide anyway. In that sense, they somewhat succeed.

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Silas_Sancona
1 minute ago, Sabal_Louisiana said:

I agree. It is not just about absolute temperature. I guess you could come up with a formula that takes into account several environmental factors and climatic variables and weigh them accordingly.

These maps are meant to be just a basic guide anyway. In that sense, they somewhat succeed.

Agree.. a basic guide for sure but.. more detailed, when you click on a particular area, would be ideal/ helpful for everyone.. 

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Hombre de Palmas

I believe we should be seeing the updated map sometime this year, unless budget/covid issues come into play.

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Jimbean
32 minutes ago, Hombre de Palmas said:

I believe we should be seeing the updated map sometime this year, unless budget/covid issues come into play.

What makes you think they will have it this year?

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