What happened to El Nino?

[displaced_floridian]

February is almost half over and here in SoCal we have had exactly two rain events in 2016. The first one was plentiful, the second rather skimpy.  I thought El Nino meant we were going to get copious rains all winter long. We are way below normal so far.November and December were very dry also. Now the extended forecast shows no possibility of rain before  a week from now and even then it is only a slight chance of light precipitation.  Dry and unseasonably warm throughout the period. Looks like El Nino is a bust. 

Edited February 11, 2016 by displaced_floridian
revision

[tropicbreeze]

El Niño is still strong but is declining. Conditions are expected to be back to neutral after March and stay neutral for the rest of the year. After that La Niña conditions are expected.

 

[Silas_Sancona]

..It is still in effect, but, there has been a lot of interference cause by two strong inactive episodes of the MJO. If you follow the pattern, a lot of the weird weather across the country so far this winter, has been influenced by some unexpectedly stronger Active/Positive and Inactive/Negative  MJO phases. When in the Active/Positive phase, the MJO helps consolidate the Jet Stream and direct storms toward CA (And FL for that matter) When the MJO flips and goes Inactive, the Jet splits/becomes weaker, allowing High pressure to reassert itself along the west coast. It is during such cycles that cold air can spill south into the eastern part of the country. Then again, this is only part of the story.. but a part that has really influenced what was supposed to have been a "typical" El Nino influenced winter. You usually don't see such an active cycling of the MJO during strong El Nino events because the Nino signal usually suppresses/ overwhelms the MJO. A good example of this is where the SOI index has been..and not gotten to so far during this El Nino. None of the negative values recorded during any active phase this winter have come close to the values observed during 1997 or early 98. Atm, it stands at 9.17 (Via Long Paddock's last update) when it should be -30/40'ish at least.. During the 97 episode, the SOI stayed deep in negative territory and bottomed out in the -80'ish range around this time that winter. The lowest the SOI has fallen during this cycle was -48/49 back in October and just for a short time.

We're at the end of this most recent inactive phase and heading into another Active.. which should help knock down the High Pressure currently locked over the West Coast. GFS is already showing some storms starting to roll into CA sometime in the next week though how much falls, and how far south any storms make it is unclear. We'll see. MJO looses it's influence over our weather the closer we get to Spring.

As far as where this El Nino goes from here, ..could be interesting. Most of the models slowly fade to Neutral territory sometime in the Spring or early Summer, then possibly slide into slightly Negative/ La Nina territory sometime in the Fall. The Caveat is a few outlying models continue to hold on to the trend slowly reaching Neutral, or around +0.05, through the Summer, then possibly start another trend upward (into El Nino territory) in the Fall.  If you look back over past El Nino episodes, something similar to what these "renegade" models are suggesting happened in 92. For everyone here in Fl.. Keep this in mind as Summer comes. In contrast, 97 quickly crashed into La Nina territory after peaking.

[displaced_floridian]

On ‎2‎/‎10‎/‎2016‎ ‎10‎:‎23‎:‎38‎, displaced_floridian said:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
230 AM PST THU FEB 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS COMING WEEK. IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME COASTAL CLOUDS RETURNING. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH SOME OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
WHERE IS EL NINO? HE IS STILL OUT THERE BUT
THE NEXT COUPLE WEEKS LOOK DRY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT THE JET
STREAM COULD MAKE A SHIFT THAT UNDERCUTS OUR CURRENT PERSISTENT
RIDGE...ALLOWING STORM SYSTEMS ACCESS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING
THE SECOND OR THIRD WEEK OF MARCH. A FEW FACTORS NEED TO FALL INTO
PLACE SO THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES...BUT THERE IS SOME REASON TO HOPE
FOR A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE WETTER BEFORE OUR WET SEASON EXPIRES.
 

On ‎2‎/‎10‎/‎2016‎ ‎10‎:‎23‎:‎38‎, displaced_floridian said:

 

[Matthew92]

On 2/11/2016, 3:46:57, tropicbreeze said:

El Niño is still strong but is declining. Conditions are expected to be back to neutral after March and stay neutral for the rest of the year. After that La Niña conditions are expected.

 

Will definitely be watching closely during hurricane season this year.

[PalmatierMeg]

Right now, El Nino is sending monster waves to Oahu

[enigma99]

I just looked at the weather forecast and looks like lots of rain is coming. Guess el nino is finally here again?

[displaced_floridian]

Past Strong El Niño Springs: Not All Wet

What happened to El Niño? Shouldn't California have been soaked by now?

Even a strong El Niño is only one of several factors at play in the atmosphere over any given day, week, or season. Therefore, the widely held belief that all El Niños soak the Golden State is a myth.

(MORE: Is La Niña Next?)

But this was a record-tying El Niño. Does that offer any hope for a wet spring?

In five previous strong El Niños (classified according to California meteorologist, Jan Null) dating to 1958, only three March-May periods were generally wetter than average in California. These include the last two strong El Niño springs, 1998 and 1983. 

Two of those strong El Niño springs, however, were generally dry, particularly in 1966.

To show the variance in spring rainfall during those five previous strong El Niños, here was the March-May rainfall in downtown San Francisco:

	March-May Rainfall (inches)
1958	14.57
1966	1.35
1973	2.73
1983	12.99
1998	8.59

As we've seen so far this fall and winter, there's no guarantee a strong El Niño will provide significant rain and mountain snow in California

[displaced_floridian]

Just now, displaced_floridian said:

Past Strong El Niño Springs: Not All Wet

What happened to El Niño? Shouldn't California have been soaked by now?

Even a strong El Niño is only one of several factors at play in the atmosphere over any given day, week, or season. Therefore, the widely held belief that all El Niños soak the Golden State is a myth.

(MORE: Is La Niña Next?)

But this was a record-tying El Niño. Does that offer any hope for a wet spring?

In five previous strong El Niños (classified according to California meteorologist, Jan Null) dating to 1958, only three March-May periods were generally wetter than average in California. These include the last two strong El Niño springs, 1998 and 1983. 

Two of those strong El Niño springs, however, were generally dry, particularly in 1966.

To show the variance in spring rainfall during those five previous strong El Niños, here was the March-May rainfall in downtown San Francisco:

	March-May Rainfall (inches)
1958	14.57
1966	1.35
1973	2.73
1983	12.99
1998	8.59

As we've seen so far this fall and winter, there's no guarantee a strong El Niño will provide significant rain and mountain snow in California

To those who said last fall, "I'll believe it when I see it."   You were right to be skeptical.

[John Case]

I cannot say that I am disappointed as I set the bar pretty high to consider this year a classic, over-the-top, record setting, etc. El Nino weather effect. I was one of the more skeptical of those who discussed it, even in the face of water restrictions in my city. However, it is raining right now and my garden seems to be faring well, at least based upon the weed growth.

Hopefully March will provide what we need, but I am thinking about alternatives to irrigation....

[trioderob]

this year was an epic el nino bringing jaw dropping snow storms right exactly in the perfect spot for the state - things could not have played out better

Edited March 18, 2016 by trioderob

[palmsOrl]

We certainly can't buy a drop of rain here in the Orlando area.  Lots of rain to our north, nothing here for March.  We are supposed to get rain this weekend, but I will believe it when I see it in the rain gauge.

[Silas_Sancona]

A very different ENSO episode by far than anticipated, especially for Southern California and Arizona..  While the Sierra has done pretty well, DO NOT expect this winter's snow pack to erase 4+ years of drought.. Not going to happen. Help out?, certainly, not a drought-buster though.

Here in Phoenix, the year is already starting out with records being broken.. earliest day to reach 90F was achieved a couple weeks ago... If we continue rain-less for the next week or so, Phoenix will set a record for the driest Feb - March time frame on record.. besting even 1984 when 0.00 was recorded during the same time frame.  While there were a few  days in the 70's when we got into town last week,  80's have ruled since Tuesday..  89/91 around town today.. with more 90s expected until Monday.. and Spring.. starts Sunday.. We might cool into the upper 70s for a day or two next week before heading right back for the 80s.

Whats interesting about this winter is how some forecasters are comparing it to the 91-92 episode.. and how the coming spring and summer patterns could share some similarities. Another interesting tidbit read from Jeff Master's latest blog entry is that the warm water that has sat off Southern CA the last couple years is expected to persist and could provide added days of sultry weather this summer there. I'm waiting to hear early thoughts regarding upcoming Monsoon season since some of the wetter summers across Arizona have occurred the summer after El Nino, according to year by year statistics via the National Weather Service's Monsoon Tracker site.

 When all is said and done, It will be interesting to see what the final analysis of this years El Nino turns up.. and where we go from here. I have a nagging hunch there have been some shifts, and that if we do head towards a La Nina next fall or Winter, it won't be by much. PDO appears to be switching into the Positive phase which favors a more El Nino- ish bias.  We'll see..

[Ben in Norcal]

On 3/18/2016, 1:57:11, trioderob said:

this year was an epic el nino bringing jaw dropping snow storms right exactly in the perfect spot for the state - things could not have played out better

We had about an average year, precipitation wise.  I was certainly hoping for better.  And if we see a La Nina now, we won't have gotten remotely enough.

[Josh-O]

rain rain go away come back another day.

just kidding come back Fing now!!! we need you here in SD!!!

 

[trioderob]

every time I look at the radar I see rain in northern cal...and the reservoirs are overflowing

[enigma99]

We'd love to send some rain to San Diego, my palms are ready for some sunny days....