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Potential for Florida Freeze in February

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RedRabbit
10 minutes ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

To clarify, the tall Malayans I saw were in a lawn on the south side of a hotel or apartment building on the Pinellas Peninsula and not the interbay peninsula I referred to above in reference to the 9B Climate.  They were just immediately north of Tierra Verde as I recall.

It probably didn't even freeze there back in 2010. 

5 minutes ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

In reference to the interbay peninsula, the east side should still be a Zone 10A Climate being right on the water, although maybe a low end 10A, though for the reasons you stated.  I just don't see how it could be 9B, though being right on the water.  Are there any decent sized Red Mangroves there, or has all the area been cleared of them for development?  If there are decent sized Red Mangroves there, then it should at least be low end 10A as opposed to 9B.

Wunderground said one thing, logic (SubTropicRay) said another. I'm pretty sure the western part is warmer, but I'll concede the east part could easily be 10a too with a thermometer positioning issue. 

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Mr. Coconut Palm
1 hour ago, RedRabbit said:

Certainly an interesting point you make. I just noticed there were 2 stations on the east side & MacDill AFB (which I'm guessing is on the east side) that seemed much colder than what was on the west side. As you said though, +-5 degrees is pretty easy to accomplish when your talking about out in the open vs next to a building under a canopy. Wunderground definitely isn't fully trustworthy, I know there's a station in Carrollwood and one in Citrus Park that seemed off by several magnitudes... I'm just going off trends that seem to appear with multiple stations. To be honest it is hard to assign any zone, but you can just see in the data how different areas are one step above or one step below others. 

What do you think of my assertion of 10b west of Westshore along with Davis Island and Harbor Island? Is that just flat out ridiculous? The temps in those locations seemed consistent with the warmest parts of Pinellas County. Tropical plants aren't as common, but I know Beach Park and Harbor Island are both home to some fairly large coconuts...

Tiberius, can you post some photos of those fairly large Coconut Palms you just mentioned?  I am not all that familiar with Tampa.  Are they on the west side of the interbay peninsula?  Do they have nuts on them?  If so, then getting some viable nuts from those palms to sprout would be a good idea, since they should be fairly cold hardy as opposed to ones from further south.

Edited by Mr. Coconut Palm

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Mr. Coconut Palm
1 minute ago, RedRabbit said:

It probably didn't even freeze there back in 2010. 

Wunderground said one thing, logic (SubTropicRay) said another. I'm pretty sure the western part is warmer, but I'll concede the east part could easily be 10a too with a thermometer positioning issue. 

That makes sense.  I wish our little peninsula here (Flour Bluff on the east side of Corpus Christi) had the same tropical effect with winter lows like the Pinellas Peninsula has.  I remember how amazing it was back when I lived in Florida and traveled over to that side of the state to see the mature Coconut Palms with nuts on them on the Pinellas Peninsula, but I saw none growing at all going through Tampa.

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RedRabbit
52 minutes ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

Tiberius, can you post some photos of those fairly large Coconut Palms you just mentioned?  I am not all that familiar with Tampa.  Are they on the west side of the interbay peninsula?  Do they have nuts on them?  If so, then getting some viable nuts from those palms to sprout would be a good idea, since they should be fairly cold hardy as opposed to ones from further south.

I don't have pictures, but I do have streetview. :) Btw, when I say "larger" I don't mean anything pre-1989, we're probably talking about the 90s if I were to guess.

Here are the ones on Harbor Island I was talking about, as seen from Davis Island unfortunately.

56d51ca945d2b_HarborIsland.thumb.jpg.4ad

That picture is pretty bad, but I think I see 5 coconuts there.

https://www.google.com/maps/@27.9256732,-82.4508647,3a,15y,43.64h,89.72t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1s1n1e8bEbur_NVj47YEN0bw!2e0!7i13312!8i6656!6m1!1e1

I don't know if this is the same one I saw before, but here is one in Beach Park: 

56d51f7a60f28_BeachPark.thumb.jpg.ab4d7c

https://www.google.com/maps/@27.9264103,-82.5296098,3a,30y,25.44h,92.14t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sECgbAlL0xXgCI_q8Gdp5fg!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

Here are some smaller ones that made it through 2010:

https://www.google.com/maps/@27.9281881,-82.5285777,3a,75y,4.01h,78.95t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sYOEAlbYrnj3VohMeXTgJvA!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

https://www.google.com/maps/@27.9252289,-82.5308597,3a,75y,359.79h,92.67t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sjd9Td60Oncglqlkuxn8XeA!2e0!5s20150601T000000!7i13312!8i6656

https://www.google.com/maps/@27.9468974,-82.5390313,3a,75y,189.73h,97.11t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sEpjzkHKei9OAzYLYs4e1Yg!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

47 minutes ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

I remember how amazing it was back when I lived in Florida and traveled over to that side of the state to see the mature Coconut Palms with nuts on them on the Pinellas Peninsula, but I saw none growing at all going through Tampa.

From what I've seen most of the coconuts are in St. Pete Beach, Treasure Island, & Tierra Verde. There aren't as many in St. Pete as I'd like to see. There could be a lot more in downtown, hopefully people will bother to plant them. 

Tampa just has a few scattered here and there. They'll only really live in S. Tampa and I think there are a few along the canals in Town n' County south of Memorial Hwy. 

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Mr. Coconut Palm
21 minutes ago, RedRabbit said:

I don't have pictures, but I do have streetview. :) Btw, when I say "larger" I don't mean anything pre-1989, we're probably talking about the 90s if I were to guess.

Here are the ones on Harbor Island I was talking about, as seen from Davis Island unfortunately.

56d51ca945d2b_HarborIsland.thumb.jpg.4ad

That picture is pretty bad, but I think I see 5 coconuts there.

https://www.google.com/maps/@27.9256732,-82.4508647,3a,15y,43.64h,89.72t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1s1n1e8bEbur_NVj47YEN0bw!2e0!7i13312!8i6656!6m1!1e1

I don't know if this is the same one I saw before, but here is one in Beach Park: 

56d51f7a60f28_BeachPark.thumb.jpg.ab4d7c

https://www.google.com/maps/@27.9264103,-82.5296098,3a,30y,25.44h,92.14t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sECgbAlL0xXgCI_q8Gdp5fg!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

Here are some smaller ones that made it through 2010:

https://www.google.com/maps/@27.9281881,-82.5285777,3a,75y,4.01h,78.95t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sYOEAlbYrnj3VohMeXTgJvA!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

https://www.google.com/maps/@27.9252289,-82.5308597,3a,75y,359.79h,92.67t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sjd9Td60Oncglqlkuxn8XeA!2e0!5s20150601T000000!7i13312!8i6656

https://www.google.com/maps/@27.9468974,-82.5390313,3a,75y,189.73h,97.11t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sEpjzkHKei9OAzYLYs4e1Yg!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

From what I've seen most of the coconuts are in St. Pete Beach, Treasure Island, & Tierra Verde. There aren't as many in St. Pete as I'd like to see. There could be a lot more in downtown, hopefully people will bother to plant them. 

Tampa just has a few scattered here and there. They'll only really live in S. Tampa and I think there are a few along the canals in Town n' County south of Memorial Hwy. 

Thanks, Tiberius.  Those are really impressive for the Tampa area.  I guess it just goes to show you, that South Tampa near the water truly is a solid 10A/10B Climate.  Like you said about wanting to see more of them in St. Pete, I would like to see a lot more of them in the RGV, especially in Brownsville, Port Isabel, and South Padre, where even Malayans can grow to maturity and produce nuts, and I would like to see more Tall in McAllen and Edinburg, where they can grow to maturity.  Here in Corpus Christi, I would like to see more of them, at least Talls planted near the water. On the island here (North Padre), there should be a lot more of them planted, since it is a solid 10A/10B Climate.

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Palmaceae
7 hours ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

Thanks, Tiberius.  Those are really impressive for the Tampa area.  I guess it just goes to show you, that South Tampa near the water truly is a solid 10A/10B Climate.  Like you said about wanting to see more of them in St. Pete, I would like to see a lot more of them in the RGV, especially in Brownsville, Port Isabel, and South Padre, where even Malayans can grow to maturity and produce nuts, and I would like to see more Tall in McAllen and Edinburg, where they can grow to maturity.  Here in Corpus Christi, I would like to see more of them, at least Talls planted near the water. On the island here (North Padre), there should be a lot more of them planted, since it is a solid 10A/10B Climate.

Hello John,

I have to disagree with one statement you made, in my opinion there is no area of Tampa that I would consider a solid 10B climate. As you really do not see a real 10B except in SE Florida. You may see some years close to that but then reality will hit. I also think one day reality will hit and there will be no 10A's in that area, except for downtown St Pete.  But remember I have seen downtown St Pete down in the 20's before.

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RedRabbit
4 hours ago, Palmaceae said:

Hello John,

I have to disagree with one statement you made, in my opinion there is no area of Tampa that I would consider a solid 10B climate. As you really do not see a real 10B except in SE Florida. You may see some years close to that but then reality will hit. I also think one day reality will hit and there will be no 10A's in that area, except for downtown St Pete.  But remember I have seen downtown St Pete down in the 20's before.

You might be right on Tampa not having any 10b. I was looking at some of the coconut imagery and most were defoliated in 2010, whereas the ones in Kopsick (a marginal 10b as I understand) held up better. 

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Mr. Coconut Palm
13 hours ago, Palmaceae said:

Hello John,

I have to disagree with one statement you made, in my opinion there is no area of Tampa that I would consider a solid 10B climate. As you really do not see a real 10B except in SE Florida. You may see some years close to that but then reality will hit. I also think one day reality will hit and there will be no 10A's in that area, except for downtown St Pete.  But remember I have seen downtown St Pete down in the 20's before.

Hey Randy,

I am not talking about the extremes, but the average winter from year to year, but I must say that Florida's climate sure seems to rapidly be changing for the worse with more harsh winters and more severe droughts than normal.  I realize, that Tampa will get hit with another 20'sF winter sooner or later, but just like here, in an average winter, I am in a solid 10A Climate, with North Padre a borderline 10B Climate (many winters though, they are solidly 10B).  And in the RGV, Brownsville is a borderline 10B Climate many winters, and South Padre is a solid 10B Climate most winters, with some winters there 11A, but sooner or later they (and we here) will get hit with another 20'sF winter too.  Fortunately, most of our tropicals here recover from such winters, including our healthiest and biggest Mexican Tall Coconut Palms (as long as the temps don't drop below 26F or 27F), and for the Coconut Palms we occasionally lose, they grow so fast, they can be replaced the following summer.

John

Edited by Mr. Coconut Palm

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displaced_floridian
17 hours ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

Hey Randy,

I am not talking about the extremes, but the average winter from year to year, but I must say that Florida's climate sure seems to rapidly be changing for the worse with more harsh winters and more severe droughts than normal.  I realize, that Tampa will get hit with another 20'sF winter sooner or later, but just like here, in an average winter, I am in a solid 10A Climate, with North Padre a borderline 10B Climate (many winters though, they are solidly 10B).  And in the RGV, Brownsville is a borderline 10B Climate many winters, and South Padre is a solid 10B Climate most winters, with some winters there 11A, but sooner or later they (and we here) will get hit with another 20'sF winter too.  Fortunately, most of our tropicals here recover from such winters, including our healthiest and biggest Mexican Tall Coconut Palms (as long as the temps don't drop below 26F or 27F), and for the Coconut Palms we occasionally lose, they grow so fast, they can be replaced the following summer.

John

I have a question about these hardiness zones.  How are they figured?  If a location has absolute minimum temps of 30-35  'most years' does that make them a solid 10A? They say 10A means minimum of 30-35 in an 'average winter'.  So, if it goes down into the 20s once every 10 years, is it then a 9B?  How about once every 5 years?  I don't think you can say, "we have 10B winters much of the time" or "we only have 9B winters once every 3 or 4 years."  The way I understand it, a place is one zone, period, not sometimes one zone and sometimes another.

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Mr. Coconut Palm
6 hours ago, displaced_floridian said:

I have a question about these hardiness zones.  How are they figured?  If a location has absolute minimum temps of 30-35  'most years' does that make them a solid 10A? They say 10A means minimum of 30-35 in an 'average winter'.  So, if it goes down into the 20s once every 10 years, is it then a 9B?  How about once every 5 years?  I don't think you can say, "we have 10B winters much of the time" or "we only have 9B winters once every 3 or 4 years."  The way I understand it, a place is one zone, period, not sometimes one zone and sometimes another.

Hey John,

The way I understand it is that the USDA Climate Zones are determined from the most recent 30 year period.  I think they take the absolute lows each winter for a given location over that period and determine what the average absolute low (lowest low temp) is for that location and thus assign a climate zone accordingly.  That doesn't mean that a 10A Climate won't occasionally once every 7 -10 years have a winter that experiences a night or two in the upper 20'sF.  Also, a 9B Climate for instance that has a normal lowest low temp from 25F to 29F may occasionally have a few winters that are 10A, but on average is still a 9B Climate.

I think a low end 10A Climate (that averages around 30F to 32F in any given winter) could actually experience a winter with a low or two in the upper 20'sF once every 5 or 6 years and still be considered a 10A Climate.  This would apply to any given climate zone.  In borderline climates, say borderline between 10A/9B, technically speaking the zone may be BARELY a 10A Climate, but experience a lot of 9B winters, and a borderline 9B/10A Climate, may technically speaking be more a 9B Climate, but experience a lot of 10A winters.  In these areas, Zone Pushers can make use of microclimates to get them another half a zone to a whole zone higher absolute winter lows.  A good example of such areas would be the Orlando area, especially on the south side of the lakes, and Walt's area in Highlands County in which he lives in a 9B Climate, but just a few miles from him, there are solid high end 10A Climates on the south side of the lakes. 

If you want to know worst case scenarios, look at the all time record low temp for any given area.  USDA Climate Zones are not based on these.  Take Miami for instance.  The all time record low temp ever recorded there as I recall is 27F, but it is solidly a 10B Climate.  Brownsville's all time record low temp is 12F, but it is solidly a 10A Climate with many 10B winters, which is why Mexican Tall Coconut Palms can grow to 40ft. tall in overall height with nuts on them, and Green Malayan Dwarfs can grown to about 25ft. tall there with nuts on them.  Fortunately, the 27F in Miami and 12F in Brownsville are very rare and probably once in a 150+ year event, so therefore official climate zones are not based on them.  I think it is JimBean here on Palmtalk from the east coast of Florida who has been working on a form of climate zone map that uses the 30 year average like the USDA does, but also factors in the all time record low too to determine a more long term climate zone map.  I hope this explanation helps.

John

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RedRabbit

When you take climate change and development trends into account I don't think historical lows are relevant to growing zones. Any low temperature hit in the 60's for example isn't all that likely to be hit again given so much has changed. 

Edited by RedRabbit
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Mr. Coconut Palm
On ‎3‎/‎2‎/‎2016‎ ‎9‎:‎20‎:‎23‎, RedRabbit said:

When you take climate change and development trends into account I don't think historical lows are relevant to growing zones. Any low temperature hit in the 60's for example isn't all that likely to be hit again given so much has changed. 

That is so right, Tiberius.  The RGV hasn't seen lows in the teens or even the low 20's since 1989, and I was just watching a news report on CBS Nightly News showing how the polar ice pack is melting at a phenomenal rate that is TOTALLY UNPRECEDENTED.  The Ididerod Sled Race in Alaska has had so little snow, that a year or so, they had to move it hundreds of miles northward for their first time in history, and this winter, they shipped in large train cars of snow just to have enough to carry out the race.  If that's not drastic and very sudden climate change, I don't know what is!

John

P.S.  Yet there are still lots of Americans with their heads in the sand like Ostriches on this issue!  In their extreme defense of the "Free Market" and corporate PROFITS at all costs, they are willing to take us all down with them and destroy the world.

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displaced_floridian
On ‎3‎/‎2‎/‎2016‎ ‎6‎:‎32‎:‎14‎, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

Hey John,

The way I understand it is that the USDA Climate Zones are determined from the most recent 30 year period.  I think they take the absolute lows each winter for a given location over that period and determine what the average absolute low (lowest low temp) is for that location and thus assign a climate zone accordingly.  That doesn't mean that a 10A Climate won't occasionally once every 7 -10 years have a winter that experiences a night or two in the upper 20'sF.  Also, a 9B Climate for instance that has a normal lowest low temp from 25F to 29F may occasionally have a few winters that are 10A, but on average is still a 9B Climate.

I think a low end 10A Climate (that averages around 30F to 32F in any given winter) could actually experience a winter with a low or two in the upper 20'sF once every 5 or 6 years and still be considered a 10A Climate.  This would apply to any given climate zone.  In borderline climates, say borderline between 10A/9B, technically speaking the zone may be BARELY a 10A Climate, but experience a lot of 9B winters, and a borderline 9B/10A Climate, may technically speaking be more a 9B Climate, but experience a lot of 10A winters.  In these areas, Zone Pushers can make use of microclimates to get them another half a zone to a whole zone higher absolute winter lows.  A good example of such areas would be the Orlando area, especially on the south side of the lakes, and Walt's area in Highlands County in which he lives in a 9B Climate, but just a few miles from him, there are solid high end 10A Climates on the south side of the lakes. 

If you want to know worst case scenarios, look at the all time record low temp for any given area.  USDA Climate Zones are not based on these.  Take Miami for instance.  The all time record low temp ever recorded there as I recall is 27F, but it is solidly a 10B Climate.  Brownsville's all time record low temp is 12F, but it is solidly a 10A Climate with many 10B winters, which is why Mexican Tall Coconut Palms can grow to 40ft. tall in overall height with nuts on them, and Green Malayan Dwarfs can grown to about 25ft. tall there with nuts on them.  Fortunately, the 27F in Miami and 12F in Brownsville are very rare and probably once in a 150+ year event, so therefore official climate zones are not based on them.  I think it is JimBean here on Palmtalk from the east coast of Florida who has been working on a form of climate zone map that uses the 30 year average like the USDA does, but also factors in the all time record low too to determine a more long term climate zone map.  I hope this explanation helps.

John

Thanks Mr Coconut, that is just the explanation I was looking for.  Here in Socal, the climate varies hugely over short distances due to changes in elevation and distance from the ocean.  I am in Escondido, about 20 mi. inland, and the absolute low is 25* but most winters have minimums of 30-35, with some winters having 35-39 mins.  Upper 20s is rare. So I think it's definitely 10a here. I think some areas right along the coast are zone 11, very rarely getting below 40*.  Still, coconuts can't take the long stretches of nights in the 40s and highs only in the 55-65 range.  However I just saw a Cuban Royal here, which surprised me. Also a dypsis decaryi.  Coming from Florida, it seems so dry here that I'm surprised anything grows.  How can anything grow  without rain for months?  But they do.

Edited by displaced_floridian
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Mr. Coconut Palm
16 minutes ago, displaced_floridian said:

Thanks Mr Coconut, that is just the explanation I was looking for.  Here in Socal, the climate varies hugely over short distances due to changes in elevation and distance from the ocean.  I am in Escondido, about 20 mi. inland, and the absolute low is 25* but most winters have minimums of 30-35, with some winters having 35-39 mins.  Upper 20s is rare. So I think it's definitely 10a here. I think some areas right along the coast are zone 11, very rarely getting below 40*.  Still, coconuts can't take the long stretches of nights in the 40s and highs only in the 55-65 range.  However I just saw a Cuban Royal here, which surprised me. Also a dypsis decaryi.  Coming from Florida, it seems so dry here that I'm surprised anything grows.  How can anything grow  without rain for months?  But they do.

You're welcome, John.  In Southern Cali, it can get to be real tricky I am sure trying to figure out what climate zone you are in, as they probably change literally from one end of small street to the other end based on elevation and distance from the beach.  Here in Corpus Christi, we have a thin veneer of 10A along the immediate coast in Flour Bluff ( a small peninsula on the east side of town where I live), along the eastern 1/3 to 1/2 of Ocean Dr. along the bay front, and high end 10A borderline 10B on North Padre Island.  10A basically extends right up the coast to Galveston along the barrier island, but no further inland north of here.

We do have a few Coconut Palms here in Corpus Christi, but only one mature one that I know of right now on the south side of a two story house that backs right up to Corpus Christi Bay (our largest and deepest bay around here) on the east end of Ocean Dr., but even it was defoliated in the 2011 freeze, even though it is in a perfect microclimate.  I do know that they can be grown to maturity and fruit here between bad winters.  Before the 2011 freeze, there was a 20ft. tall (overall height) one here in Flour Bluff with nuts on it, and there was one about 25ft. tall on the island with nuts on it, but both of those were apparently too exposed without any building or tree canopy protection and died as a result of the temps in the high 20'sF and staying below freezing for over 24 straight hours.

Our soil temps here near the water, briefly drop into the mid to upper 50'sF for about a 4 to 5 weeks during the average winter, but then go up to the magical 60F or above soil temp for the rest of the year.  Also, we have very mild to warm springs and falls, and warm to hot summers, so our Coconut Palms get plenty of heat the rest of the year, and we have high humidity throughout most of the year and about 29" to 31.76" rainfall from the island to the airport on the west side of town, which is significantly more than what Southern Cali gets.  Anyway, I have 5 young and small Coconut Palms in my yard comprising 5 different varieties, and 3 friends of mine each have a small one in their yards.  Hopefully, we can grow all of ours up to fruiting maturity.  There are some really nice mature fruiting ones in the RGV, and someone posted photos of one they planted in the yard of their office in Brownsville that has produced viable mature nuts.

John

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      While April was the driest on record, as well as the coldest, May is currently on course to be both the wettest and coldest. We have replaced the sunshine and cool weather of April, with the rain and cool weather of May. We have had constant drizzle, thunder and spells of heavy rain and wind over the past 10 days. It was absolutely vile out today. A mild 14C but just wet and miserable. Shite considering we are 2 weeks outside of summer.
      Monday's figures were absolutely abysmal for mid May...
       
       
      This is the first time on record that we have not gone over 20C during the first two weeks of May. In fact I haven't gone above 20C since the last day of March, when it reached 27C here. As it stands right now, March 30th has been my hottest day this year, which is a testament to how crap this spring has really been.
      On top of that it appears another storm is arriving later this week as well. The last thing we need is more rain and wind. We need some frickin heat!!!
       
       
      The temperatures look absolutely appalling for London this week, in mid-May! Highs of 14C / 57F from Thursday to Monday with another storm in between. However there are signs that it will bet warming up next week with temperatures trending closer to normal, but still no proper warmth at all. I have never seen anything like this in May. It sums up a crap spring in general and a crap 2021, weather-wise!

       
      What is even more unbelievable is that parts of Russia and Siberia are running as much as 25C (50F) above average for the time of year!

       
      I have to give spring 2021 a rating of 1 out of 10, it has genuinely been that bad! I'm praying for a record breaking hot summer. 
    • Haddock
      By Haddock
      Beccariophoenix alfredii aka “Madagascar high land coconut” is a interesting palm, but it’s cold hardiness hasn’t been fully tested. I heard it’s hardy to the lower 20s when it’s young but what about mature specimens, how cold can they handle?
    • rfielding
      By rfielding
      Hello all, 
      I'm a geographer based in South Carolina, but a Florida native, with an interest in breadfruit as a tool for food security. I'm especially interested in efforts to push the latitudinal boundaries of breadfruit, including the good work that many are doing to grow breadfruit in Florida. I'd love to hear from members of this forum on their efforts to grow breadfruit in Florida or other places where it's challenging. Feel free to reply here or email me directly at rfielding@coastal.edu. Thanks very much!
      Russell Fielding
      Coastal Carolina University 
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