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IHB1979

Potential for Florida Freeze in February

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Palmaceae
9 minutes ago, Yunder Wækraus said:

What the heck?! How is this explained? (It looks like the Pahokee microclimate will hold up)

I think it was the center of the high pressure are was centered right over the middle of the state, giving north Florida the south west winds, hence keeping them warmer.

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RedRabbit

Thanks to everyone for all the temperature updates. From seeing them I've learned my area gets cold quicker than average, but the low temperature comes in about the same.

Edited by RedRabbit

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palmsOrl

The temperature in my area did not drop much at all after around 3 am this morning.  The low my thermometer out in the open recorded was 34F, which was what it read when I went to bed several hours before sunrise.  No freeze for the Orlando area this time around either.

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Matthew92
12 hours ago, palmsOrl said:

The temperature in my area did not drop much at all after around 3 am this morning.  The low my thermometer out in the open recorded was 34F, which was what it read when I went to bed several hours before sunrise.  No freeze for the Orlando area this time around either.

Seems like it might be another year without one for you all in Orlando- amazing. As I've mentioned before: when I drive through that area especially the last few years, I see all the Norfolk Island Pines, Foxtails, Royals, Rubber plants, bottle palms etc. residents in these new subdivisions have planted willy-nilly all over the place. Will be some significant carnage the next time an old-fashioned Central FL freeze comes along.

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Palmaceae

Let's not open another thread with the title of "Potential for Florida Freeze in March" ;)

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edbrown_III

it only got down to maybe 31 F    no frost or damage I have a giant orchid tree full of blooms     salut

 

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Silas_Sancona

Lowest we (and the station closest to where i work in Sarasota) reached was 39F Thursday morning. Today was about as beautiful as it gets. Agree with Palmaece, lets not encourage another visit from the cold north this coming month. Thoughts of warmth and lots of spring growth only.

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Mr. Coconut Palm

Hey Guys,

Good luck.  I heard this evening on our local weather segment that the Southeast will be in for an Arctic Blast with temps falling as low as 20F in Atlanta over the next few days.  Wouldn't that put North Florida into freezing territory with Central Florida in the mid 30's, especially inland Central Florida?  I hope he is wrong for all your sakes.  Over here as is common in February, spring has come to South Texas, especially along the coast.  We are supposed to have highs in the 70'sF and 80'sF, with lows in the 50'sF and around 60F over the next week, and the same weather man said now is the time to go ahead and start planting, even tomatoes.  We tied the record high of 84F at the airport yesterday, and it go up to that again today at the airport, but the morning lows have still been somewhat chilly with the extremely dry weather and low humidity we have been having.

John

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gsytch

Nothing in my local forecast has anything below 40F in the coming week. Far northern areas may see a near freeze Sunday morning, but here in Tampa Bay they are aniticipating 40-45F and then warming to seasonal levels for next week...72/52 or so. Then the east is in for a warming trend which leaves us in the clear for now. Since the latest freeze on  record for Tampa is March 5, we may be out of the woods. Hoping spring has finally arrived! ;)

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Mr. Coconut Palm
15 hours ago, gsytch said:

Nothing in my local forecast has anything below 40F in the coming week. Far northern areas may see a near freeze Sunday morning, but here in Tampa Bay they are aniticipating 40-45F and then warming to seasonal levels for next week...72/52 or so. Then the east is in for a warming trend which leaves us in the clear for now. Since the latest freeze on  record for Tampa is March 5, we may be out of the woods. Hoping spring has finally arrived! ;)

Hopefully it won't be that bad, but I just thought if Atlanta was predicted to get down to 20F, then that might mean some late season cold for northern and central Florida.

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nitsua0895
1 hour ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

Hopefully it won't be that bad, but I just thought if Atlanta was predicted to get down to 20F, then that might mean some late season cold for northern and central Florida.

I think it's more of an mid-Atlantic/northeast event. I'm just a 3 hour drive southwest from Atlanta and we're only forecast to be at 29F tonight and then a huge warm up to end the month kicks in.

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Mr. Coconut Palm
38 minutes ago, nitsua0895 said:

I think it's more of an mid-Atlantic/northeast event. I'm just a 3 hour drive southwest from Atlanta and we're only forecast to be at 29F tonight and then a huge warm up to end the month kicks in.

Hey Austin,

Glad to hear it.  I know how us palm nuts hate to loose our palms.

John

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Silas_Sancona

Possibly down to 45 or 46 by Sunrise but if winds start veering more out of the east sooner than forecast, we might level out at about 48. No matter what, a nice rebound to 70 (maybe 72-74F) by the afternoon. 70's look to dominate the forecast this week. Won't be surprised if one or two days flirt with, ..or reach just into the 80's. A nice week ahead. Gave all the Palms/seedlings, and some other stuff that has become a little yellow lately a light feed earlier.

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Matthew92

Not putting my guard down until maybe mid-March. In early March of 2012 I remember one night the low being forecast for about 27. Usually that is the cut-off for when I start covering things, especially the young citrus trees I was nursing at the time: but I was busy and bit the bullet. Unfortunately I was horrified to wake up very early in the morning to 23!!! on my weather station (which is situated right next to all my citrus trees). Very thankfully, they took it alright with surprisingly little damage. It kind of bites up this far north: we can even get light freezes Mid-March or a little after, usually not into April though.

Edited by Opal92

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palmsOrl
On ‎2‎/‎13‎/‎2016‎ ‎9‎:‎02‎:‎36‎, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

Hopefully it won't be that bad, but I just thought if Atlanta was predicted to get down to 20F, then that might mean some late season cold for northern and central Florida.

This often is the case, but not always.  I've seen north FL with highs in the 40s and 50s, while in Orlando, we are 80+ during the day at the same time, for days on end.  The difference can really be amazing.  I even recall upper 30s in the NW FL Panhandle and mid-80s in deep S FL one time.  It just depends on the cold front/air mass and complicated factors which determine how far south and east it penetrates and for how long.  While we are staying mild to coolish here in Central FL, we are clearly not getting the full effects from the current cold wave affecting the NE, Mid Atlantic and northern parts of the Deep South.  Temperatures over the next week look like just the kind of warm up I was hoping for, 70s/50s and not warm and sticky and in the 80s.

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SubTropicRay

4 more nights in the 2015-2016 freeze season for my garden.  The frequency of major cold snaps drops drastically after the 20th of February.  The last March freeze in my area was in 1980 and before that 1948.  I'm counting my chickens.  Stratospheric warming be damned!

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IHB1979

Winter's weak, last gasp arrives February 25-26. Nighttime lows 45-50F. Not to shabby. 

I believe my lowest winter temp for the 2015-16 winter was 37F.

 

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Jimbean

It got down to 35F here, which is roughly average.

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Palmaceae

I recorded 40 for the most open part of my garden (next to an open field), but all other areas were no lower than 43/44 this winter. So 11a/border line 10b winter.  My garden is still young and looking forward to more canopy as that keeps the temps up at least 3-4 degrees.  As my house is surrounded by empty lots, so nothing to help modify the air and the cold winds.

 

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Ed in Houston

Lowest was 34 for the winter at Houston Hobby airport, 6 degrees above average for the last 25 years. This tied with two other years over the last 25 for the warmest during that period.

 

Ed in Houston

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RedRabbit

37 was the lowest I saw back on January 25th. This seems like an exceptionally warm winter here.

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PalmatierMeg

Lowest here was 41F last Thursday morning. That would be an 11a winter. But earlier this week I noticed what looks like a bit of cosmetic cold damage to my tallest Coccothrinax and to some Copernicia seedlings on my garden lot. So - maybe a couple degrees colder beyond my thermometers or a touch of frost????

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Palmaceae
59 minutes ago, PalmatierMeg said:

Lowest here was 41F last Thursday morning. That would be an 11a winter. But earlier this week I noticed what looks like a bit of cosmetic cold damage to my tallest Coccothrinax and to some Copernicia seedlings on my garden lot. So - maybe a couple degrees colder beyond my thermometers or a touch of frost????

Meg,

I was in the 40-43 degree range that morning and saw frost on the roof tops, but none on the cars or plants. The Copernicia gigas that you gave me showed some minor damage. I see some cosmetic damage on some other species also. I am a bit colder than you are so I think your temp was correct.

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Zeeth
1 hour ago, RedRabbit said:

37 was the lowest I saw back on January 25th. This seems like an exceptionally warm winter here.

Surprised your low was so high. The low at my garden in Palmetto was 34˚, and the same was seen at the Sarasota airport (which seems to usually record similar lows to me). That cold spell was weird though. My apt in New Tampa recorded the same low as my garden did. 

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RedRabbit
1 hour ago, Zeeth said:

Surprised your low was so high. The low at my garden in Palmetto was 34˚, and the same was seen at the Sarasota airport (which seems to usually record similar lows to me). That cold spell was weird though. My apt in New Tampa recorded the same low as my garden did. 

I am surprised too to be honest, there's really nothing special about where I am... I think it was just luck, in a normal year I'm sure New Tampa and Carrollwood both get colder than Palmetto. In any event none of the 3 locations saw a freeze. :D

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SubTropicRay

40F was my lowest low on Sunday, January 24th.  No frost in sight.  Winter be damned.

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Mr. Coconut Palm
On ‎2‎/‎15‎/‎2016‎ ‎11‎:‎47‎:‎40‎, palmsOrl said:

This often is the case, but not always.  I've seen north FL with highs in the 40s and 50s, while in Orlando, we are 80+ during the day at the same time, for days on end.  The difference can really be amazing.  I even recall upper 30s in the NW FL Panhandle and mid-80s in deep S FL one time.  It just depends on the cold front/air mass and complicated factors which determine how far south and east it penetrates and for how long.  While we are staying mild to coolish here in Central FL, we are clearly not getting the full effects from the current cold wave affecting the NE, Mid Atlantic and northern parts of the Deep South.  Temperatures over the next week look like just the kind of warm up I was hoping for, 70s/50s and not warm and sticky and in the 80s.

Glad to hear you all dodged the bullet on this one.  It sure was bad up north, though.

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Mr. Coconut Palm
On ‎2‎/‎18‎/‎2016‎ ‎4‎:‎52‎:‎20‎, Ed in Houston said:

Lowest was 34 for the winter at Houston Hobby airport, 6 degrees above average for the last 25 years. This tied with two other years over the last 25 for the warmest during that period.

 

Ed in Houston

Ed,

I am still shocked that you had a slightly warmer lowest temp than I had down here, and you are so much further north than me.  Also, I am only .6 a mile from the Laguna Madre, and it got down to 33.6F on the morning of Jan. 28 with a light frost at my place, but I warmed up to 74.4F here that afternoon!  Your south Houston area heat island effect should be about equivalent to my latitude temp wise, but me being so close to the water, should have made my lowest temp at least about 3F warmer than yours.

John

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Ed in Houston
On 2/18/2016, 4:52:20, Ed in Houston said:

Lowest was 34 for the winter at Houston Hobby airport, 6 degrees above average for the last 25 years. This tied with two other years over the last 25 for the warmest during that period.

 

Ed in Houston

7 hours ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

Ed,

I am still shocked that you had a slightly warmer lowest temp than I had down here, and you are so much further north than me.  Also, I am only .6 a mile from the Laguna Madre, and it got down to 33.6F on the morning of Jan. 28 with a light frost at my place, but I warmed up to 74.4F here that afternoon!  Your south Houston area heat island effect should be about equivalent to my latitude temp wise, but me being so close to the water, should have made my lowest temp at least about 3F warmer than yours.

John

 

On nights of radiational freezes it is not aways intuitive how areas cool off relative to one another. Cooling is usually more predictive during advective cooling. As far as latitude relates to temperature during radiational cooling, there are a lot of factors that have an affect. One factor is where high pressure is located. Just the other day we saw how northern Florida was warmer than southern Florida on a night of radiational cooling.

Temps.PNG

Ed in Houston

 

 

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Mr. Coconut Palm
10 hours ago, Ed in Houston said:

 

On nights of radiational freezes it is not aways intuitive how areas cool off relative to one another. Cooling is usually more predictive during advective cooling. As far as latitude relates to temperature during radiational cooling, there are a lot of factors that have an affect. One factor is where high pressure is located. Just the other day we saw how northern Florida was warmer than southern Florida on a night of radiational cooling.

Temps.PNG

Ed in Houston

 

 

Yeah, I remember that Ed.  A lot of people on here who live in Central and South Florida were commenting on that. 

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RedRabbit
On February 19, 2016 at 8:03:25 AM, SubTropicRay said:

40F was my lowest low on Sunday, January 24th.  No frost in sight.  Winter be damned.

Nice, an 11a winter in Tampa. :D

What part of S Tampa are you at? For obvious reasons don't give your address, but just the general area.

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RedRabbit
On 2/18/2016, 8:04:06, Zeeth said:

Surprised your low was so high. The low at my garden in Palmetto was 34˚, and the same was seen at the Sarasota airport (which seems to usually record similar lows to me). That cold spell was weird though. My apt in New Tampa recorded the same low as my garden did. 

I discovered 37 wasn't accurate. I recorded 36.5 on my back porch (where I usually keep the thermometer to keep it dry), but it gets 1-3f cooler out in the open so 34 was about right...

Just a few observations about the Tampa Bay area I made as a germinating member of PalmTalk from this winter. It doesn't seem like there is much difference in temp anywhere between about Hillsborough and northern Pasco County. Based on Wunderground this year it seems Tampa Bay shapes up like this:

56d3a5e0c2c2a_TBZones.thumb.jpg.eb6af2fa

Blue- 9a

Green- 9b

Orange- 10a

Red- 10b

Sorry to my Manatee County friends, I didn't pay close enough attention this year. Once I started paying attention two big surprises I had were how cool some of interior Pinellas County gets (and even areas semi close to the water around S Pasadena and Seminole) and how warm the western portion of the Interbay peninsula in Tampa stays. I was also a little surprised by how little of difference it seems to make between about Hillsborough Ave and SR 52 in Pasco County. It is a pretty broad area but temps don't seem to vary that much with Citrus Park being maybe on the warmer end (not sure why) and some of Wesley Chapel & Valrico on the cooler end. 

Anyhow, don't be offended if I called your area something other than what it is, remember, I'm still Germinating on here. lol

Edited by RedRabbit

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NorCalKing

I just saw some areas outside of Jacksonville got down to 26f a couple nights ago...Ouch!! A little late for those kinda temps I would have thought?

Edited by NorCalKing

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Mr. Coconut Palm
3 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

I discovered 37 wasn't accurate. I recorded 36.5 on my back porch (where I usually keep the thermometer to keep it dry), but it gets 1-3f cooler out in the open so 34 was about right...

Just a few observations about the Tampa Bay area I made as a germinating member of PalmTalk from this winter. It doesn't seem like there is much difference in temp anywhere between about Hillsborough and northern Pasco County. Based on Wunderground this year it seems Tampa Bay shapes up like this:

56d3a5e0c2c2a_TBZones.thumb.jpg.eb6af2fa

Blue- 9a

Green- 9b

Orange- 10a

Red- 10b

Sorry to my Manatee County friends, I didn't pay close enough attention this year. Once I started paying attention two big surprises I had were how cool some of interior Pinellas County gets (and even areas semi close to the water around S Pasadena and Seminole) and how warm the western portion of the Interbay peninsula in Tampa stays. I was also a little surprised by how little of difference it seems to make between about Hillsborough Ave and SR 52 in Pasco County. It is a pretty broad area but temps don't seem to vary that much with Citrus Park being maybe on the warmer end (not sure why) and some of Wesley Chapel & Valrico on the cooler end. 

Anyhow, don't be offended if I called your area something other than what it is, remember, I'm still Germinating on here. lol

Looks good to me Tiberius.  I wonder why the east side of the inter bay peninsula is only 9b with the water protecting it from cold NE winds?  When I lived in Coral Springs back in 2000 and 2001, I made a couple of trips to St. Pete and to Ft. Desoto.  On the way to Ft. Desoto, I noticed some mature (tall) Green Malayans at the very south end of the Peninsula.  I wonder if they made it through the 2010 freezes?  They were the tallest Malayans I had seen that far north.  As I recall, one in particular had about 25ft. of trunk, and it looked too straight and skinny to be a Jamaican Tall, plus it had the more compact crown typical of Malayan Dwarfs.

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RedRabbit
11 minutes ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

Looks good to me Tiberius.  I wonder why the east side of the inter bay peninsula is only 9b with the water protecting it from cold NE winds?  When I lived in Coral Springs back in 2000 and 2001, I made a couple of trips to St. Pete and to Ft. Desoto.  On the way to Ft. Desoto, I noticed some mature (tall) Green Malayans at the very south end of the Peninsula.  I wonder if they made it through the 2010 freezes?  They were the tallest Malayans I had seen that far north.  As I recall, one in particular had about 25ft. of trunk, and it looked too straight and skinny to be a Jamaican Tall, plus it had the more compact crown typical of Malayan Dwarfs.

I'm not sure what's up with part of the interbay peninsula being cooler, but it seemed pretty consistent on wunderground. I suspect it is because it is a little too far from the warmer air on the western side and too far south to have the same kind of urban heat benefit this is present in Hyde Park.

 

Im pretty sure the Malayans would have survived in Tierra Verde. I doubt they'd ever die there to be honest.

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SubTropicRay

Tiberius, I live near Bay to Bay and Westshore Blvd.  The oak canopy is pretty significant in the area and helps keep frost away and temps up. 

The Weather Underground temps near WU station Bayshore Beautiful (east side of Interbay) are not consistent with what's growing in the area.  In reality, this area seems to support more tropical species.  A good friend of mine has a 1 acre garden near Interbay Blvd and MacDill and he has large Ficus religiosa and Gumbo Limbos that survived the 2010 cold snap with only minor damage.  In contrast, the WU station closer to me (Fairoaks Manhattan Manor) typically reads higher on cold mornings but the area is not "crawling" with more tropical species.  The exact positioning of the thermometer can skew temps a few degrees in either direction.

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RedRabbit
13 hours ago, SubTropicRay said:

Tiberius, I live near Bay to Bay and Westshore Blvd.  The oak canopy is pretty significant in the area and helps keep frost away and temps up. 

The Weather Underground temps near WU station Bayshore Beautiful (east side of Interbay) are not consistent with what's growing in the area.  In reality, this area seems to support more tropical species.  A good friend of mine has a 1 acre garden near Interbay Blvd and MacDill and he has large Ficus religiosa and Gumbo Limbos that survived the 2010 cold snap with only minor damage.  In contrast, the WU station closer to me (Fairoaks Manhattan Manor) typically reads higher on cold mornings but the area is not "crawling" with more tropical species.  The exact positioning of the thermometer can skew temps a few degrees in either direction.

Certainly an interesting point you make. I just noticed there were 2 stations on the east side & MacDill AFB (which I'm guessing is on the east side) that seemed much colder than what was on the west side. As you said though, +-5 degrees is pretty easy to accomplish when your talking about out in the open vs next to a building under a canopy. Wunderground definitely isn't fully trustworthy, I know there's a station in Carrollwood and one in Citrus Park that seemed off by several magnitudes... I'm just going off trends that seem to appear with multiple stations. To be honest it is hard to assign any zone, but you can just see in the data how different areas are one step above or one step below others. 

What do you think of my assertion of 10b west of Westshore along with Davis Island and Harbor Island? Is that just flat out ridiculous? The temps in those locations seemed consistent with the warmest parts of Pinellas County. Tropical plants aren't as common, but I know Beach Park and Harbor Island are both home to some fairly large coconuts...

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Mr. Coconut Palm
21 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

I'm not sure what's up with part of the interbay peninsula being cooler, but it seemed pretty consistent on wunderground. I suspect it is because it is a little too far from the warmer air on the western side and too far south to have the same kind of urban heat benefit this is present in Hyde Park.

 

Im pretty sure the Malayans would have survived in Tierra Verde. I doubt they'd ever die there to be honest.

To clarify, the tall Malayans I saw were in a lawn on the south side of a hotel or apartment building on the Pinellas Peninsula and not the interbay peninsula I referred to above in reference to the 9B Climate.  They were just immediately north of Tierra Verde as I recall.

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Mr. Coconut Palm
21 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

I'm not sure what's up with part of the interbay peninsula being cooler, but it seemed pretty consistent on wunderground. I suspect it is because it is a little too far from the warmer air on the western side and too far south to have the same kind of urban heat benefit this is present in Hyde Park.

 

Im pretty sure the Malayans would have survived in Tierra Verde. I doubt they'd ever die there to be honest.

In reference to the interbay peninsula, the east side should still be a Zone 10A Climate being right on the water, although maybe a low end 10A, though for the reasons you stated.  I just don't see how it could be 9B, though being right on the water.  Are there any decent sized Red Mangroves there, or has all the area been cleared of them for development?  If there are decent sized Red Mangroves there, then it should at least be low end 10A as opposed to 9B.

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Mr. Coconut Palm
14 hours ago, SubTropicRay said:

Tiberius, I live near Bay to Bay and Westshore Blvd.  The oak canopy is pretty significant in the area and helps keep frost away and temps up. 

The Weather Underground temps near WU station Bayshore Beautiful (east side of Interbay) are not consistent with what's growing in the area.  In reality, this area seems to support more tropical species.  A good friend of mine has a 1 acre garden near Interbay Blvd and MacDill and he has large Ficus religiosa and Gumbo Limbos that survived the 2010 cold snap with only minor damage.  In contrast, the WU station closer to me (Fairoaks Manhattan Manor) typically reads higher on cold mornings but the area is not "crawling" with more tropical species.  The exact positioning of the thermometer can skew temps a few degrees in either direction.

Ray, I don't think Ficus religiosa is a good indicator, since I have heard it is the most cold hardy tropical ficus.  In the Rio Grande Valley, there are some HUGE religiosas in inland frost prone areas like McAllen, where other ficus would only grow to be about half their size.

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      This is the first time on record that we have not gone over 20C during the first two weeks of May. In fact I haven't gone above 20C since the last day of March, when it reached 27C here. As it stands right now, March 30th has been my hottest day this year, which is a testament to how crap this spring has really been.
      On top of that it appears another storm is arriving later this week as well. The last thing we need is more rain and wind. We need some frickin heat!!!
       
       
      The temperatures look absolutely appalling for London this week, in mid-May! Highs of 14C / 57F from Thursday to Monday with another storm in between. However there are signs that it will bet warming up next week with temperatures trending closer to normal, but still no proper warmth at all. I have never seen anything like this in May. It sums up a crap spring in general and a crap 2021, weather-wise!

       
      What is even more unbelievable is that parts of Russia and Siberia are running as much as 25C (50F) above average for the time of year!

       
      I have to give spring 2021 a rating of 1 out of 10, it has genuinely been that bad! I'm praying for a record breaking hot summer. 
    • Haddock
      By Haddock
      Beccariophoenix alfredii aka “Madagascar high land coconut” is a interesting palm, but it’s cold hardiness hasn’t been fully tested. I heard it’s hardy to the lower 20s when it’s young but what about mature specimens, how cold can they handle?
    • rfielding
      By rfielding
      Hello all, 
      I'm a geographer based in South Carolina, but a Florida native, with an interest in breadfruit as a tool for food security. I'm especially interested in efforts to push the latitudinal boundaries of breadfruit, including the good work that many are doing to grow breadfruit in Florida. I'd love to hear from members of this forum on their efforts to grow breadfruit in Florida or other places where it's challenging. Feel free to reply here or email me directly at rfielding@coastal.edu. Thanks very much!
      Russell Fielding
      Coastal Carolina University 
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