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SubTropicRay

Potential for a Florida freeze in January

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Palmaceae
22 minutes ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

What are your local forecasts calling for as far as lows and highs over the next two days?

Here in the Cape, 44 tonight and 40 tomorrow night.

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Bill H2DB

   Daytona Beach : tonite  31  tomorrow 36 .

The temperature finally did reach 47 here after the sun appeared at about 2pm .

My 77 year old wood frame house is cold on these kind of days and nights .

 

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Mr. Coconut Palm
38 minutes ago, Bill H2DB said:

   Daytona Beach : tonite  31  tomorrow 36 .

The temperature finally did reach 47 here after the sun appeared at about 2pm .

My 77 year old wood frame house is cold on these kind of days and nights .

 

Wow, that's cold for your area Bill, but I guess it's normal for you to get down to that about once each winter, with a total of about 4 or 5 nights in the 30's each winter.  Does that sound about right?  Is the 31F prediction for a mainland area or the beach?  We are normally low end 10A getting down to about 31F or 32F once in a normal winter and down in the 30's about 5 or 6 times total each winter, but we have had a VERY mild winter, with only one night below 40F at my place (38.3F) in the morning of 1/10.  And the airport, which is about 17 miles further inland from me is usually low end 9B, has only been down in the 30's twice, one night at 36F and one night at 38F.

John

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Silas_Sancona

58 today with one of the strongest prolonged post-frontal wind events i have witnessed here in FL. Lowest we're supposed to reach both tonight and tomorrow night is 42-40F. Won't be surprised if we are adjusted down a degree or two. Driving around earlier, noticed extremely choppy conditions over Sarasota Bay near Bird Key. Glad that after tomorrow night temps start a nice moderation trend going forward.

While the models this week have varied wildly in the suggested weather pattern for the next week or so, both the 6z and 12z runs seem to be more consistent in shifting the cold back north. AO and NAO are indeed headed in the "right" direction while the MJO signal turns inactive for at least a couple weeks. PNA also looks to stay positive atm and, depending how positive it stays, may temper whatever warm air returns. (was in negative territory in December during our ++warm spell)

As far as Stratospheric Warming.. Steve Gregory on W.U. did a good analysis in his Wednesday blog update.. In a nut shell, a small episode may occur in the next week or so but is anticipated to only warm in the highest levels of the Atmosphere.. and that if it or another bigger episode does reach down further, it would take 3-4 weeks before the effects would be felt at the surface.  That puts us somewhere around the 15-20th of next month.

As for where it pivots, thinking it has to set up over Hudson Bay for the cold to drain down towards Florida like in 2010.  Settling over Eurasia, i believe doesn't effect the East US. Unless of course it decides to move east over Alaska/ NW Canada.  I, for one, hope this is the coldest period we have for the rest of the winter..

As for severe weather.. NWS Ruskin office did a good summary of the Jan. 17th outbreak worth checking out. Looking over the wind profile, you can see the "couplet" that formed and later tracked into Sarasota as the F2 Tornado. You can also see several others that had formed that night that luckily did not strengthen as they came ashore.

Next storm looks to be a slow mover with more of a heavy rain/ possible flooding event rather than a wind/tornado threat atm. Friday's storm was a bust.. maybe two-tenths of a inch fell here at the house.. and no wind/thunder.

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Bill H2DB
36 minutes ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

Wow, that's cold for your area Bill, but I guess it's normal for you to get down to that about once each winter, with a total of about 4 or 5 nights in the 30's each winter.  Does that sound about right?  Is the 31F prediction for a mainland area or the beach?  We are normally low end 10A getting down to about 31F or 32F once in a normal winter and down in the 30's about 5 or 6 times total each winter, but we have had a VERY mild winter, with only one night below 40F at my place (38.3F) in the morning of 1/10.  And the airport, which is about 17 miles further inland from me is usually low end 9B, has only been down in the 30's twice, one night at 36F and one night at 38F.

John

  I really feel that " normal" is not adequate to describe things .

    Having lived as a weather geekish guy here for 65+ years , and a palm nut for 50+ of those , I have seen a lot

of variations .

   I've seen runs of years in which  many ,  many nights will be in the 35 + /- range and always a mid 20's night or two , and also 

years like the 4 most recent with no real danger of 20's .

   The location of Daytona is itself a factor . In many respects , we are Northeast Fla , and have a lot of commonality with St Augustine 

and Jacksonville .  On the other hand  , we sometimes ( surely in the very close to the coast area ) are much like the Cape and Cocoa etc .

   My location ( just on the west side of the Halifax River ,  aka - ICW ) means colder daytimes , and warmer nighttimes than just one mile or

less inland .

    Anyway , this really isn't anything out of the ordinary here , except that it is connected to the big storm in the NE .

Our average low of 47 at this time is pretty chilly ,even though mine might be more like 50 , but my daytime highs are about 59-63 compared to

the official 67-68 .  When the ocean temp gets down to 55 ( I've seen 45-46 )  or less , and the NE wind sets up , that will rule the daytime temp here .

   I know this area's weather very well , and yet it is difficult to put into words .        It is cool / cold in the Winter in its own way ,( Chamber of Commerce

to the contrary ) .

An example of that is that very often the High Temp of the day here at my location will occur just before , or close to noon , and then the 

 ( often slight ) Seabreeze  will start , and the temp will drop a lot , and we will have a cool / cold afternoon , while the official weather site will record

a high during the mid to late afternoon that is much higher , skewing the numbers , really .       A sort of a Jekyll and Hyde situation . 

However , in the summer , that is a benefit .

Anyway , it is now 37.7 at 9 pm .  I am protecting nothing .

 

 

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Mr. Coconut Palm
3 minutes ago, Bill H2DB said:

  I really feel that " normal" is not adequate to describe things .

    Having lived as a weather geekish guy here for 65+ years , and a palm nut for 50+ of those , I have seen a lot

of variations .

   I've seen runs of years in which  many ,  many nights will be in the 35 + /- range and always a mid 20's night or two , and also 

years like the 4 most recent with no real danger of 20's .

   The location of Daytona is itself a factor . In many respects , we are Northeast Fla , and have a lot of commonality with St Augustine 

and Jacksonville .  On the other hand  , we sometimes ( surely in the very close to the coast area ) are much like the Cape and Cocoa etc .

   My location ( just on the west side of the Halifax River ,  aka - ICW ) means colder daytimes , and warmer nighttimes than just one mile or

less inland .

    Anyway , this really isn't anything out of the ordinary here , except that it is connected to the big storm in the NE .

Our average low of 47 at this time is pretty chilly ,even though mine might be more like 50 , but my daytime highs are about 59-63 compared to

the official 67-68 .  When the ocean temp gets down to 55 ( I've seen 45-46 )  or less , and the NE wind sets up , that will rule the daytime temp here .

   I know this area's weather very well , and yet it is difficult to put into words .        It is cool / cold in the Winter in its own way ,( Chamber of Commerce

to the contrary ) .

An example of that is that very often the High Temp of the day here at my location will occur just before , or close to noon , and then the 

 ( often slight ) Seabreeze  will start , and the temp will drop a lot , and we will have a cool / cold afternoon , while the official weather site will record

a high during the mid to late afternoon that is much higher , skewing the numbers , really .       A sort of a Jekyll and Hyde situation . 

However , in the summer , that is a benefit .

Anyway , it is now 37.7 at 9 pm .  I am protecting nothing .

 

 

That's really interesting.  Thanks, Bill.  I guess you have a much more water effect than I have here.  I live on a very small peninsula (Flour Bluff) with a very small SHALLOW bay (Oso Bay) to my west and the VERY shallow but wider Laguna Madre to my east (I live about .6 of a mile from the Laguna Madre and about 2.5 miles east of Oso Bay),  Corpus Christi Bay, a deeper bay is about 3 miles north of me. 

By the way, I have read that coconut palms can be grown in your area to maturity, but they are marginal long term there.  Are they only grown in very hospitable microclimates, and do they ever produce mature fruit there?  There used to be a coconut palm (I think a Green Malayan) growing in St. Augustine that was almost as famous as the Newport Beach coconut palm.  So I figure if it is possible to grow them in a place like St. Augustine and Newport Beach, they should grow where you live.

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IHB1979

I'm on the barrier island by Melbourne, low 35-37 tonight. Sunday night a low of 46. The forecast discussion mentioned wide spread frost as far south as northern Martin county Sunday night. Hopefully that's west of I95. Then a warm up for next week.

The wind here today was brutal.  

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Bill H2DB

Well..., now that you've brought it up , here is my Coconut blurb regarding this area .

I have never , ever seen any Coconut honestly make it here .  I have seen larger ones occasionally installed

and even those  perish .  Even to the south of here ( meaning NSB ) they can't make it .

   I have personally murdered several . These were  smallish , but given any stretch of time , any larger ones here have succumbed

to the overall coolness north of the Cape along the coast .    They are indeed the the symbol of Tropicality .

   I remember a group that were planted at a beachside motel in the best possible location ( i.e. on the SE side of a 6 story bldg

that was curved to the SE ) , directly on the ocean , and even they were destroyed . that was in the late 60's or so.....

   These were good sized palms , about 20' to the top of the fronds , but our winter got to them . 

I have no explanation regarding the St Augustine palm . we are definitely a tad warmer here . Hard to 'splain . 

By the same token I recently posted pix of a fruiting Cocos in NSB , but time will tell . It is about as good of a location as is 

possible , so.....

    Despite GW ( a long term thing , and different than weather ) , I think we are due for a dose of reality , and don't expect to see

any fruiting Cocos in my remaining years , but actually have plans to plant one early this year . I now justify this by saying that if 

I plant it and it dies , it has at least , not just been  eaten .

 

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Mr. Coconut Palm
5 minutes ago, Bill H2DB said:

Well..., now that you've brought it up , here is my Coconut blurb regarding this area .

I have never , ever seen any Coconut honestly make it here .  I have seen larger ones occasionally installed

and even those  perish .  Even to the south of here ( meaning NSB ) they can't make it .

   I have personally murdered several . These were  smallish , but given any stretch of time , any larger ones here have succumbed

to the overall coolness north of the Cape along the coast .    They are indeed the the symbol of Tropicality .

   I remember a group that were planted at a beachside motel in the best possible location ( i.e. on the SE side of a 6 story bldg

that was curved to the SE ) , directly on the ocean , and even they were destroyed . that was in the late 60's or so.....

   These were good sized palms , about 20' to the top of the fronds , but our winter got to them . 

I have no explanation regarding the St Augustine palm . we are definitely a tad warmer here . Hard to 'splain . 

By the same token I recently posted pix of a fruiting Cocos in NSB , but time will tell . It is about as good of a location as is 

possible , so.....

    Despite GW ( a long term thing , and different than weather ) , I think we are due for a dose of reality , and don't expect to see

any fruiting Cocos in my remaining years , but actually have plans to plant one early this year . I now justify this by saying that if 

I plant it and it dies , it has at least , not just been  eaten .

 

Thanks, Bill.  I guess it's like the saying goes about being so close.  Just not too far south of you they make it.  If you are going to try one anyway, try getting a Green Hawaiian Tall.  Keith on the Gulf side mentioned to me a while back that he got one from Hawaii (the Green NOT the Golden form of the Hawaiian Tall) and it survived 27F without much injury as I recall (probably in 2010), whereas his others suffered considerable cold injury.  I intend to try one myself.  Apparently, they can not only withstand colder low temps than the other varieties, but they can also withstand prolonged chilly and possibly damp conditions better than other varieties too, which would make it a good choice for here along the South Texas Coast, since we occasionally every few winters have 1 to 2 straight weeks of highs only in the low to mid 40's to low 50's and lows in the 30's and low 40's sometimes with light rain.  That is what actually kills our South Texas coconut palms more so than the occasional quick freeze or two around 29F or 30F is the winters with prolonged chilly damp weather.

John

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Mr. Coconut Palm
44 minutes ago, IHB1979 said:

I'm on the barrier island by Melbourne, low 35-37 tonight. Sunday night a low of 46. The forecast discussion mentioned wide spread frost as far south as northern Martin county Sunday night. Hopefully that's west of I95. Then a warm up for next week.

The wind here today was brutal.  

Not too bad, Bob.  Hopefully it won't go any lower than that.

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edric

37.3 now, forcast low 32 Ed

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Bill H2DB

   Here is the Set Up for the night.

The NW vector for the winds is the big deal , and they may go more Northish by early hours .

Still , there is only so much potential here , so its just a good 'ol cold spell .

 

 

24464152522_e87c469830_c.jpgNight temps by Bill H, on Flickr

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Mr. Coconut Palm
20 minutes ago, edric said:

37.3 now, forcast low 32 Ed

Hey Ed,

Where exactly is Oak Hill?

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Jimbean

Oak Hill is North of Titusville and about 20 miles south of Daytona.

It is 42F in Merritt Island already at midnight.  Forecast is supposed to be 35F!

 

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Mr. Coconut Palm
1 hour ago, Jimbean said:

Oak Hill is North of Titusville and about 20 miles south of Daytona.

It is 42F in Merritt Island already at midnight.  Forecast is supposed to be 35F!

 

Thanks, Jim.

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PalmatierMeg

Forecast overnight predicted to be 41F. but as of this moment (1:30 a.m.) temp is 53F. Will it fall 12 degrees in the next six hours till sunup? I doubt it but I'll have to wait to find out. I hauled in the potted super sensitives anyway.

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Yunder Wækraus

I don't have a thermometer, but it sure feels cold outside on our barrier island at 3 am. The wind has died down, and there's a terrible stillness under a cloudless sky lit up by a full moon. It's beautiful to look at, but I wish it looked that pretty with temps in the 60s-70s :-) I still don't understand how and why frost forms at above-freezing temperatures, so I have no idea whether the above-freezing temps in the 30s we're expecting tonight might bring frost or not.

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edric

29.8 at 3:09 AM Ed

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IHB1979

37 degrees at 7:30am in Indian Harbour Beach.

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Jimbean

35F Merritt Island.

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Bill H2DB

  My memory thermometer reads  32.2  for a low here .

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Zeeth

38.7˚ at my garden. Hopefully tomorrow isn't much colder.

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Silas_Sancona

Interesting temp spread here in South Bradenton; Lakeside south station: bottomed out at 41F, now at 43F. South Bradenton station (near 53rd Ave and 41) Lowest: 44F, now near 46F. El Conquistador pkwy and Anna Maria: Lowest 46F.

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gsytch

I went out and got another digital thermometer with a suction cup for the outside sliding door...it has been almost exactly the temp of my digital with the temp sensor that I doubted yesterday (I thought maybe it was getting old). We never hit below 40F this morning and were 50F at 1am. I guess the breeze off the Gulf helped, as Zephyrhills hit 32F and Odessa 35F..January has turned out COLD after suhc a warm December. Just typical Florida bipolar winters! :o

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palmsOrl

The heat island Executive Airport saw a low of 36F this morning, Orlando International 35F and Sanford International 32F.  The digital thermometer out in the open in my back yard here in north Winter Park read 30F for the low.  I don't see any evidence of damage on uncovered palms yet, but a very light freeze did hit the foliage on the thinnest leaves of the most sensitive tropicals (hibiscus, papaya, etc.).  Just light cosmetic damage expected.

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Sandy Loam

 

Edric, I wonder why Oak Hill, FL is so cold! It sounds like Daytona was much warmer than you were during the seasonal record cold of last night.

Gsytch,  New Port Richey should be warmer than Zephyrills and especially Dade City. Those spots are supposedly in the inland cold patch.

Here in Gainesville, FL, at 7:00 am the WeatherChannel was saying that we had bottomed out at 27 degrees F. Yet, at the same time Weather Underground was posting 31.9 degrees (someone's personal weather station), and my thermometer memory shows that I hit a (seasonal) low of 31 last night --- actually 30.9. Apparently there was plenty of variation in this town, ranging from at least 27 to 32 at the coldest moment of the night. At 7:00 am, Accuweather even had its thermometer at 26-point-something, which is the coldest I had seen of all the weather websites.

 

 

 

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edric

Hey, not everyone has a Davis  weather station, Ed

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_Keith

Well, I am going to call last night again, a split decision.  If we got to 32, it was maybe for an hour or less.   I did see a tiny bit of tender new growth suffering, but only in the more open areas.   A good testament to microclimates.

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Palmaceae
12 hours ago, PalmatierMeg said:

Forecast overnight predicted to be 41F. but as of this moment (1:30 a.m.) temp is 53F. Will it fall 12 degrees in the next six hours till sunup? I doubt it but I'll have to wait to find out. I hauled in the potted super sensitives anyway.

Meg, I noticed the same thing last night but then woke up at 3:30 and saw it was then 44 degrees so the NW wind died down and we dropped. I had 41 for a low.

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edric

In all fairness, I'm really out in the stix, those buildings & homes really make a big difference, Ed

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Tropicdoc

Dodged another bullet here in south louisiana. My jungle microclimate bottomed out at 34. Plenty of frost on my roof though. Shocked it was so cold in Florida.

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PalmatierMeg
1 hour ago, Palmaceae said:

Meg, I noticed the same thing last night but then woke up at 3:30 and saw it was then 44 degrees so the NW wind died down and we dropped. I had 41 for a low.

Low hit 44F. A 9 degree drop in six hours. Wind must have died. Tonight's predicted low: 41F. Then some relief. I'm so tired of being cooped up.

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Palmaceae
2 minutes ago, PalmatierMeg said:

Low hit 44F. A 9 degree drop in six hours. Wind must have died. Tonight's predicted low: 41F. Then some relief. I'm so tired of being cooped up.

I agree, I want some warmer weather!

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Sandy Loam

As usual, nobody from Key West has been posting comments on this cold snap thread. I saw that they were supposed to go all the way down to 59 Fahrenheit last night (cold for Key West) and are at 66 right now. Tomorrow they will be back into the 70s again.  Tough winter down there!

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Silas_Sancona

Well, as id thought, looks like we might shave off a degree or two from the forecast for 40F tomorrow morning. Frost advisories are also up for areas just east of  I 75 as well. Moved a couple Hoya showing some cold stress and a couple other things closer to the house just in case it ends up colder than 39. Rain or no rain ahead, just glad tonight looks to be the last gasp of this cold spell.. quick cool down next weekend takes us only down to about 50F atm.. 70s and maybe low 80s on the menu around the 1st.. Bring it on!!

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edric

Was 34.8, up to 35 again, Ed

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Jimbean

I'm already down to 42F.

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PalmatierMeg

Temp has been 49F for the past couple hours. Supposed to get down to 41F

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palmsOrl

Red Alert!  Came home around 12:15 am after a day with the cousins (and spending all day yesterday at an orchid show in Miami) to a bottle palm and a spotless golden Malaysian Cocos covered in hoar frost/frozen dew!  With as busy as I'd been the last few days, I hadn't covered as many palms as last week.  Just went out and covered the rest and am hoping for the best.  The Cyrtostachys hybrid is going to have to go uncovered this time, as I am out of sheets/blankets and the condensation on it is still liquid (it is in the front yard, where it must be a tad warmer).  Had to at least get a big sheet over the Clinostigma ponapense too.  The temperature in the open area of the back yard is reading 34F as of 1:30 am while the temp under light canopy on a mercury thermometer is 38-39F.  We are almost certainly going to see low 30s here (and I would not be surprised if the thermometer in the open shows 29F for a low).

I don't mind the cold one bit, but it sure is incongruous with my landscape regime.

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