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SubTropicRay

Potential for a Florida freeze in January

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NorCalKing

We started the winter downright freezing (for us) but since the first week of January low to mid 60's (66 in my backyard today) with overnight lows of 40-50. I'll be starting our spring fertilizing program first week of feb (unless we get another cold snap) :shaka-2:

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Mr. Coconut Palm
1 hour ago, NorCalKing said:

We started the winter downright freezing (for us) but since the first week of January low to mid 60's (66 in my backyard today) with overnight lows of 40-50. I'll be starting our spring fertilizing program first week of feb (unless we get another cold snap) :shaka-2:

Are you in Central Cali?  What is your normal lowest temp each winter?

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NorCalKing
9 hours ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

Are you in Central Cali?  What is your normal lowest temp each winter?

Yeah, interior valley of the Bay Area. Our normal lowest temps are 39 overnight, and 57 daytime highs.

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Mr. Coconut Palm
2 hours ago, NorCalKing said:

Yeah, interior valley of the Bay Area. Our normal lowest temps are 39 overnight, and 57 daytime highs.

Ouch, that's chilly.  Where I live it's 65F/50F in the dead of winter and 66F/47F at the airport.  That's like the area I moved from, Bryan, TX with a normal high/low in Jan. of 59F/39F.

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_Keith

New forecast 32/31 Sat/Sun morning.   The freeze free winter hopes may be ending.

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Ed in Houston
1 hour ago, _Keith said:

New forecast 32/31 Sat/Sun morning.   The freeze free winter hopes may be ending.

Looking back for 25 years at Houston Hobby airport, the data shows that there were only two years when the temperature for the year remained above 32F. Those years were 2005 and 1991, both years with 34F. I don't really care if it is 32 or 34 but below 30 and I will need to bring in some potted plants and I am feeling pretty lazy right now. Still several more weeks of risk to go.

Ed in Houston

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NorCalKing
4 hours ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

Ouch, that's chilly.  Where I live it's 65F/50F in the dead of winter and 66F/47F at the airport.  That's like the area I moved from, Bryan, TX with a normal high/low in Jan. of 59F/39F.

Yeah, don't forget though, we NEVER get measurable snow or freezing rain type weather in the valleys, also even after a very cold <32 night, we warm back up to mid 50's, the next day. Basically we don't get 24 hrs+ of freezing weather.

 

Oh BTW, Corpus Christi all time record low was 11f, our lowest all-time 18f :P

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_Keith
51 minutes ago, NorCalKing said:

Yeah, don't forget though, we NEVER get measurable snow or freezing rain type weather in the valleys, also even after a very cold <32 night, we warm back up to mid 50's, the next day. Basically we don't get 24 hrs+ of freezing weather.

 

Oh BTW, Corpus Christi all time record low was 11f, our lowest all-time 18f :P

Our record low was 9, set in 1989. 

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NorCalKing
39 minutes ago, _Keith said:

Our record low was 9, set in 1989. 

Thank god for the Sierra's (and the Pacific) I say. Otherwise at our Lat. we'd have a far colder all time low.

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Palmaceae

We are expecting low 40's again Sunday night here in SW Florida.

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Mr. Coconut Palm
2 hours ago, NorCalKing said:

Yeah, don't forget though, we NEVER get measurable snow or freezing rain type weather in the valleys, also even after a very cold <32 night, we warm back up to mid 50's, the next day. Basically we don't get 24 hrs+ of freezing weather.

 

Oh BTW, Corpus Christi all time record low was 11f, our lowest all-time 18f :P

Yes, it is, and even in Brownsville the all time record low is 12F, and yet there are 40+ft. tall coconut palms there with nuts on them!  The saving grace is that those kind of Arctic outbreaks are a once in a 150+ year event.  That is interesting though that you recover so quickly from freezing weather and it doesn't last long at all.

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Mr. Coconut Palm
1 hour ago, _Keith said:

Our record low was 9, set in 1989. 

Ouch Keith, but it could be worse.

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NorCalKing
3 hours ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

Yes, it is, and even in Brownsville the all time record low is 12F, and yet there are 40+ft. tall coconut palms there with nuts on them!  The saving grace is that those kind of Arctic outbreaks are a once in a 150+ year event.  That is interesting though that you recover so quickly from freezing weather and it doesn't last long at all.

Yeah, as we like to say it never really gets "that cold" although, me/plants would appreciate a little more winter heat.

Here's an example of how our temps recover even during our coldest on record day. 50F by the aft. 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KLVK/1961/1/5/DailyHistory.html?req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=

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Silas_Sancona
6 hours ago, NorCalKing said:

Yeah, don't forget though, we NEVER get measurable snow or freezing rain type weather in the valleys, also even after a very cold <32 night, we warm back up to mid 50's, the next day. Basically we don't get 24 hrs+ of freezing weather.

 

Oh BTW, Corpus Christi all time record low was 11f, our lowest all-time 18f :P

Not entirely true... While exceptionally rare, San Jose has recorded roughly an inch or two of Snow in the past. Mom has pictures somewhere of Snowfall at my Grandma's house from back in 1977.  Believe there have been snow flurries recorded in Santa Cruz on the Boardwalk. Also remember a couple times back in the late 80s/ early 90s where i observed snow pellets mixing with rain a couple times. Again though, conditions have to be exceptionally favorable, like in 77, for anything to stick around for even an hour. Agree though, if it wasn't for the Sierras, things could be much different for the Bay Area's climate.

As for things here, lowest we hit was 40F the other night and maybe 42F come Sunday Morning, unless,of course, the forecast changes. Storm headed our way should bring Thunderstorms but conditions doesn't look as favorable as last Saturday for anything serious.. On the other hand, strong winds expected after the front pulls through are anticipated to bring very dangerous conditions to the beaches over the weekend.. Could see 10Ft breakers and the potential for serious beach Erosion, as well as possibly 1-3' of extra water on top of High tide. Everything should settle down by Sunday night with a warm up still forecast beyond next Monday. More rain expected though.

Edited by Silas_Sancona

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_Keith

Front just blew into Louisiana on its way down the Gulf Coast to MS, AL, and Florida.   Up to baseball sized hail in some places, tornado watches.   Waking up to 41 tomorrow morning with a high of 48.  Crazy winds out there probably gusting into upper 30 mph range.   Low of 32 still predicted for Sat/Sun morning.   My microclimate under the Live Oaks on the southside of the house should afford an additional degree or 2 of protection.   I'll probably move my potted stuff under there and take my chances.

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Mr. Coconut Palm
58 minutes ago, NorCalKing said:

Yeah, as we like to say it never really gets "that cold" although, me/plants would appreciate a little more winter heat.

Here's an example of how our temps recover even during our coldest on record day. 50F by the aft. 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KLVK/1961/1/5/DailyHistory.html?req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=

Wow, 18F to 50F in the same day.

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nitsua0895
54 minutes ago, _Keith said:

Front just blew into Louisiana on its way down the Gulf Coast to MS, AL, and Florida.   Up to baseball sized hail in some places, tornado watches.   Waking up to 41 tomorrow morning with a high of 48.  Crazy winds out there probably gusting into upper 30 mph range.   Low of 32 still predicted for Sat/Sun morning.   My microclimate under the Live Oaks on the southside of the house should afford an additional degree or 2 of protection.   I'll probably move my potted stuff under there and take my chances.

Yeah it's pretty bad here in Montgomery. No problems with tornadoes or hail right now but very heavy rain and lots of cloud to ground lightning. I hear we might catch a few snow flurries at the back end of this system, it'll be cool as a novelty but it better not accumulate. If so I'll probably have to sit outside and constantly knock it off my palms :D 

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_Keith
Just now, nitsua0895 said:

Yeah it's pretty bad here in Montgomery. No problems with tornadoes or hail right now but very heavy rain and lots of cloud to ground lightning. I hear we might catch a few snow flurries at the back end of this system, it'll be cool as a novelty but it better not accumulate. If so I'll probably have to sit outside and constantly knock it off my palms :D 

Light snow in mid Louisiana now, about 70 miles north of me.

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Ed in Houston

About 40 in Houston this morning. Very windy with the Washies getting their old fronds pruned. WU says 34F tonight. NOAA says 32 western Houston to 35 S.E. Houston. The low to mid 30s could make for a frost event depending on winds and dew point.

 

The good news is that the 10 day forecast shows  highs of 70s to about 80 at the end of January

Ed in Houston

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IHB1979

68 degrees at 8:30am this morning. Saturday night looks to be upper 30's - low 40's for coastal Brevard. West winds 25-30mph. I don't see much chilly weather the following week which will be a nice break form the cool winter weather. :rolleyes:

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SubTropicRay

El Niño has been dominant this winter in off setting (so far) a very negative Arctic Oscillation.  Typically, the factors contributing to widespread cold rank in this order:

1. Stratospheric warming

2. Negative Arctic Oscillation

3. El Niño 

I'm thankful #3 has been so strong in holding off number 2 but now number 1 is being discussed in the NOAA long range discussions.  A strong stratospheric warming event is now being forecasted by months end....... :bemused:  

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IHB1979

Does a strong stratospheric warming signal the end of the 2015-16 winter? Specifically this late in January?

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IHB1979

Found this cool site that is pretty informative about what Ray was mentioning. 

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

This was interesting regarding the strong stratospheric warming event:

General temperature trends across the Northern Hemisphere (NH) should mirror trends in the AO.  With the AO well into negative territory, cold temperatures may peak this week, at least temporarily especially across North America. However following the SSW, the AO will once again trend negative and similarly NH temperatures should also turn relatively colder.  The models are predicting for the PV to pinwheel off the Pole towards northern Eurasia.  This position of the PV favors the coldest temperatures to follow.  Therefore we are most confident in an overall cold pattern for the latter half of winter across Northern Eurasia including Europe.  With the cross-polar flow of air from Siberia to North America shut down (for the first time in three winters), temperature anomalies for the Eastern United States are more uncertain.   However potentially expansive snow cover and weak flow associated with the PV may favor colder temperatures than otherwise expected.

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SubTropicRay

Stratospheric warming put simply means all the cold air at the poles gets displaced by warmer air.  The frigid air then spills into the lower latitudes and pays us a visit.

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IHB1979

Seems like the models show the PV to pinwheel off the pole towards Northern Eurasia. Would that be the best worst case scenario for us?

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_Keith

Gonna be oh so close here.   I think we'll go in at 33 tonight.  Tomorrow night is the risk, but still predicted as only 32 on the button.  To freeze or not to freeze, that is the question.  It'll probably come down to a single degree.   My tomato seedlings are still out, they are my canaries in the coal mine.

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Mr. Coconut Palm
18 minutes ago, _Keith said:

Gonna be oh so close here.   I think we'll go in at 33 tonight.  Tomorrow night is the risk, but still predicted as only 32 on the button.  To freeze or not to freeze, that is the question.  It'll probably come down to a single degree.   My tomato seedlings are still out, they are my canaries in the coal mine.

Hey Keith,

It's still fairly mild over here, 50.3F right now at my place, and it was 50.9F an hour or so ago.  There is a slight breeze outside, and if it is coming off the water, I won't even drop below about 42F tonight.

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Ed in Houston

Mid to upper 30s in Houston, near freezing in the N&W burbs. Outlook for 10 days shows no freeze threat with mild 70s the last four days of the period. Two months down one to go.

Ed in Houston

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_Keith

Well, freeze free year is over, at least part of the yard.  Must have been right at 32 there as there was medium frost in coldest part of the yard and bird bath had light film of ice.  However, in the warmest part of the yard there was no frost and that bird bath had no ice.  

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Palmaceae

Pretty breezy here, gusts up to and above 30mph. Still expecting 44 tonight and 40 tomorrow night.

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Mr. Coconut Palm

It only got down to 43.8F at my place this morning, but I had expected about 38F or 39F, since the airport was predicted to get down to 35F.  They probably didn't go below 40F.  The light breeze coming off the water must have continued throughout the night, whereas they thought it was going to diminish overnight.  More like a Pacific front than an Arctic front.

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PalmatierMeg

Got down to 58 last night. Is 60 now and winds are howling so I can't work outdoors. Predicted low 45 tonight, 42 Sun night.

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Bill H2DB

   At 10 minutes after NOON , right now , it is 39.5 here in Daytona Beach ! !

 

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Jimbean
3 hours ago, Bill H2DB said:

   At 10 minutes after NOON , right now , it is 39.5 here in Daytona Beach ! !

 

wow! 

It is still cloudy here; there is just not enough sunlight coming through.  It is 50F at noon and my forecast has been revised downward to 37F!

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Bill H2DB

Here is a screenshot of the NOAA radar , showing SNOW (in white )just now in NE Florida .

There's a few frames after this one showing it down even into west Volusia briefly .

 

24563067145_891b99f2be.jpgSNOW ! by Bill H, on Flickr

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Jimbean

I checked into it and it looks to me like ground clutter.

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Palmaceae
On 1/22/2016, 10:55:00, SubTropicRay said:

Stratospheric warming put simply means all the cold air at the poles gets displaced by warmer air.  The frigid air then spills into the lower latitudes and pays us a visit.

Looks like the AO finally went postive today, so that's good news, but still have to watch the stratospheric warming and hope that does not affect the rest of our winter weather in a negative way.

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Mr. Coconut Palm

What are your local forecasts calling for as far as lows and highs over the next two days?

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