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SubTropicRay

Potential for a Florida freeze in January

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SubTropicRay

It sounds ridiculous with such warm weather around but the NAO and AO will be very negative in a week or so.  With the lagging effects usually arriving a week or two later, the potential is there for a significant freeze in Florida.  I haven't seen these two teleconnections look like this simultaneously since January 2010.  Of course if there's limited cold air in Canada,  it doesn't matter what the pattern looks like.  All I can say is the door will be wide open.  Keep an eye on the upcoming forecasts.  Hopefully nothing will come of it.

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gsytch

I have seen that, too. From what I heard, they are saying to watch the southern sub jet to see if it deflects the dive of cold air. El Nino typically sends this jet very strongly over our area, which we are finally seeing now as our weather has gone from warm and balmy to constantly unsettled now. On the bright side, we only have 7 weeks of winter left!:o

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palmsOrl

Ray, this could certainly be bad news.  Fortunately, I do not see anything sinister looking in our forecast through 10 days out.  Mainly just weather within roughly 5 degrees either side of average for January.  From what you said, it sounds like Jan. 17- 25 would be the timeframe to look out for if cold air does make a move into FL from the NW.

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Silas_Sancona

 Been watching this and are also surprised at how negative the ensemble members are trying to drive the AO. For the moment, a persistent west to east flow across Canada looks to keep any serious cold from building/ lingering and growing deeper before dropping south. That combined with the stronger southern jet should deflect most of the worst of this cold air intrusion before it can invade.. Unless something changes..

A bigger concern is a sizable storm suggested by the 12z GFS run around the 22nd. Looked quite nasty. We'll see if it sticks around in future model runs. This weekend's storm may bring a " shot across the bow" type of severe weather potential for FL.  According to W.U. weather blogger, Steve Gregory's Wednesday WX update, most of the pattern indicators head back toward neutral, or back into positive territory, by the end of the month.. MJO is also expected to turn inactive around that time.

Interesting weather tid bit.. Even though it is only Jan. 6th, there are 3 potential Tropical areas being watched across the globe. One S.W. of Hawaii, the blob-hybrid thing out near the Bahamas, and another tropical blob just Southeast of Brazil.

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palmsOrl

Based on the above commentary and other information I have read on other sites, I am going to predict no freeze for the rest of January for Coastal Central FL and inland areas of S. Central FL and the Orlando area.  Maybe as low as 34-35F for Orlando at some point in the next 3 weeks, but I highly doubt we will get lower than that.  February, who knows?

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Ed in Houston

 

11 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

 

......A bigger concern is a sizable storm suggested by the 12z GFS run around the 22nd. Looked quite nasty. We'll see if it sticks around in future model runs. This weekend's storm may bring a " shot across the bow" .......

Interesting weather tid bit.. Even though it is only Jan. 6th, there are 3 potential Tropical areas being watched across the globe. One S.W. of Hawaii, the blob-hybrid thing out near the Bahamas, and another tropical blob just Southeast of Brazil.

 

8 hours ago, palmsOrl said:

Based on the above commentary and other information I have read on other sites, I am going to predict no freeze for the rest of January for Coastal Central FL and inland areas of S. Central FL and the Orlando area.  Maybe as low as 34-35F for Orlando at some point in the next 3 weeks, but I highly doubt we will get lower than that.  February, who knows?

This weekend the forecast or Houston shows lows in the 30s. Around the 22nd there are the forecast that Silas referenced that show a dome of cold high pressure over the Midwest and a low forming in the northern gulf. The low could tap in to the high pressure dome and suck the cold air down.

On the 21st....

gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick.gif

And then on the 22nd....

gfs_namer_384_1000_500_thick.gif

 

Ed in Houston

 

 

 

 

 

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Silas_Sancona

18z run of the GFS still showing the potential for some cold air getting wrapped around the suggested Gulf Low around the 22nd as it ejects off to the N.E.. At this point, IF this does  materialize, any possible effects look brief and quick moving, thus, maybe one morning where we might see a frosty threat, particularly north of Tampa. Accuweather extended still not showing anything below about 44F locally.

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SubTropicRay

Hopefully, we won't see any combining of the polar and sub tropical jets.  The models are not depicting this (yet).  If they stay separate, we have a decent chance of dodging the bullet. 

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Jimbean

Every forecast that I have looked at does not show me below 44F for the next 10 days. 

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SubTropicRay

From Accuweather's Brett Anderson:

"Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will likely remain in their negative phase for the next 2-3 weeks. This would normally lead to a cold pattern across the eastern half of the country. However, the West Coast ridge is expected to remain weak, which will allow some of the milder, Pacific air to get entrained into the WNW flow into the east, reducing the intensity of cold. Also, lack of extensive snow cover will also modify any air masses coming into the East. However, compared to December, January will certainly feel cold in the Eastern half of the country."

No forecast worth's its own salt can predict anything 10 days in advance.  If there were a freeze on the way, no 10 day forecast will spot it.  You'll find out about 5 days in advance.  Anything beyond that is garbage.

 

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SubTropicRay

Thankfully there's nothing of concern in the forecast but the pattern hasn't changed either.  The NAO and AO are stil negative so the remainder of January is still rife with possibilities.  Eyes wide open :bemused:

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SubTropicRay

The latest GFS model run for next Tuesday morning shows the coolest temps of the season so far.  With this still a week away, watch the forecast carefully.

Daytona Beach 31

Fort Myers 43

Tampa 41

Melbourne 39

Miami 51

Orlando 40

Sarasota 41

Tallahassee 32

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Mr. Coconut Palm

Wow, that's cold for Daytona Beach, especially if Tallahassee is only supposed to get down to 32F!  Shouldn't Tallahassee be about 10F to 12F+ colder than Daytona?

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SubTropicRay

GFS is warmer for next Tuesday morning but it's still early and model fluctuations will occur.

Daytona Beach -- 40

Fort Myers -- 43

Jacksonville -- 34

Melbourne -- 43

Miami -- 55

Orlando -- 40

Pensacola -- 35 (Monday morning)

Sarasota -- 40

Tallahassee -- 34

Tampa -- 43

West Palm Beach -- 52

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_Keith

Right now showing 37,36,36 in S Louisisana. Hope it stays there. We are freeze free so far this winter. 

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IHB1979

Indian Harbour Beach (barrier island Melbourne) is looking like 53, 47, 49. Hopefully these are trending up.

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gsytch

I am seeing a trend towards colder in my local forecasts.....37 for Tampa now. Door is wide open in this cold snap so it will be a wait and see. B)

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Mr. Coconut Palm

We are supposed to be chilly over here in Corpus Christi Sunday morning with a low of 40F at the airport and a high of 60F, then low 40's Monday morning with a high in the low to mid 60's, then 70's and upper 40's and low 50's for the highs and lows after that.  Normal high/low is 67F/47F, and no freezes here so far this winter.

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Silas_Sancona

No worries, for now.. Lowest forecast low is 45F Monday night.. Moderation into the upper 60s/ lower 70s by next Thursday and Friday. fingers crossed lows don't move any lower for early next week.  Bigger concern is the brewing storm on its way for tomorrow.. and, (perhaps more so) the storm aimed at us for Sunday. Stay safe and keep an eye on any watches/possible warnings issued tomorrow.

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SubTropicRay

Latest GFS numbers for Tuesday morning:

Daytona Beach -- 36

Fort Myers -- 42

Jacksonville -- 31

Melbourne -- 39

Miami -- 54

Orlando -- 39

Pensacola -- 32

Sarasota -- 39

Tallahassee -- 32

Tampa -- 41

West Palm Beach -- 51

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nitsua0895

Here in Montgomery we're forecast to be at 26F :( But at least I've got a greenhouse covering my Pygmy Date and other tropical plants until March. 

I thought we may actually go a winter without freezing after it was 82F on Christmas.

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palmsOrl

Nothing to be too concerned about here in Orlando, as the lowest is still showing 39-40F.  This has been consistent for several days, rather than continually trending downward like the forecast often does.  Now we just need to get through the last 10 days in January, which is still in question.  February can obviously be problematic as well, but I anticipate more of a stormy, cool but freeze free pattern next month.  We shall see.  Palms are still looking good.  Just a few that look a bit frazzled.  Even the Licuala grandis and Areca catechu, which I covered a few days ago in case there was any light frost.

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SubTropicRay

The Arctic Oscillation will be at a -5 next week with a still negative NAO!!  If not for El Niño, we'd be hard freezing our a--es off all the way to Homestead.  The pattern is nearly identical to January 2010 but that was a much weaker El Nino.  I've called El Niño La Puta for the last time.:lol:

12Z GFS  - no big deal

Daytona Beach -- 38 Tues, 37 Wed

Jacksonville -- 32 Tues, 31 Wed

Melbourne -- 43 Tues, 41 Wed

Miami -- 55 Tues

Orlando -- 40 Tues, 39 Wed

Pensacola -- 35 Tues

Sarasota -- 40 Tues, 41 Wed

Tallahassee -- 31 Tues, 32 Wed

Tampa -- 42 Tues, 43 Wed

West Palm Beach -- 52 Tues

 

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gsytch

This is what my local BayNews9 has. This is COLD. Ive seen colder, of course. Hmmmm ^_^

Jan16.PNG

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Palmaceae

Current forecast low for Tuesday morning is 43 degrees in Cape Coral.

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Silas_Sancona

44F is still currently the coldest low forecast for the start of the week.. Nice moderation trend towards the end of the week. Pattern looks milder going into Feb but, there may be another Stratospheric warming episode sometime around mid month (Feb). Even so, fast Southern Jet and some very warm anomalies looking to build across Canada over the next 3-4 weeks should limit just how much cold air can pool up if another warming episode does transpire.

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Mr. Coconut Palm
2 hours ago, gsytch said:

This is what my local BayNews9 has. This is COLD. Ive seen colder, of course. Hmmmm ^_^

Jan16.PNG

That's not bad.  That would be considered an average to slightly mild Jan. week here in Corpus Christi.

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Mr. Coconut Palm
1 minute ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

That's not bad.  That would be considered an average to slightly mild Jan. week here in Corpus Christi.

Texas coconut palms could handle that king of Jan. weather with no problem at all.

 

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Mr. Coconut Palm
Just now, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

Texas coconut palms could handle that king of Jan. weather with no problem at all.

 

Typo, should read that kind of Jan. weather.....

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palmsOrl

Yep, just a typical strong January cold front.  39-40F is nothing notable here for the third week in January.

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gsytch
1 hour ago, palmsOrl said:

Yep, just a typical strong January cold front.  39-40F is nothing notable here for the third week in January.

Nope sure isn't...I just watch as this is REALLY cold,polar air and places in the midwest will be well below zero. Thankfully, it appears El Nino will deflect the heart of the cold air and/or it modifies on its way down. <_<

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Cocoa Beach Jason

Low of 41 predicted for my neck of the woods Monday. Will be the coldest air by far this winter. 

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Mr. Coconut Palm

WATCH OUT FLORIDA FRIENDS, THIS FRONT IS A BITCH WITH WINDS!   When the front blew through here between 11:00 and 12:00 today, we had a wind gust at the airport of 52 mph and 47 mph at the Naval Air Station.  So you guys might end up with some severe thunderstorms or maybe some wind damage with the frontal passage.  Low tomorrow morning is predicted to be 41F at the airport and 49F tomorrow night, with a high tomorrow of 60F and 67F Monday, so not too bad temp wise.

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Mr. Coconut Palm

By the way, the high winds not out our electricity for a couple of hours here today.

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Mr. Coconut Palm

Typo, should say knocked out our electricity....

 

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gsytch

Yes, tornadoes went through Sarasota and Manatee counties about 4am, killed 2 in Manatee. I slept through it all. El Nino is making its presence felt now!:angry:

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gsytch

I thought I saw another pattern change coming as the AO goes positive, yet a reinforcing shot of cold air is expected for next weekend. Again, nothing earth shattering but cold nonetheless. Any shift coming to warm us up a bit? It would be nice to get some warmer weather to stay around a while so I can get yard work done. I am not a fan of the cold,so I do not get much done when temps fall like they have! :wub:

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enigma99

Didn't see a thread for TX/LA but the gfs 850 just ran very cold 45 min ago. Weather outlets haven't updated with the new data yet. Yikes

1/27 and it works eastward

image.gif

Edited by enigma99

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Ed in Houston

Assuming that if the forecast of the cold dome over Canada and the forecast of the southern low holds for the 10 days out forecast, then the question is how much of the Canadian cold air dome will be captured by the low and pulled south. Looking out another 12 hours, the low might not be able to get a big bite of the Canadian cold.

gfs_850_10d.gif

That is pretty subtle for 10 days out, BUT if the low DOES manage to capture a bigger bite of the Canadian cold air dome, it could be bad. Deep south snow?

Ed in Houston

 

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enigma99
3 hours ago, Ed in Houston said:

Assuming that if the forecast of the cold dome over Canada and the forecast of the southern low holds for the 10 days out forecast, then the question is how much of the Canadian cold air dome will be captured by the low and pulled south. Looking out another 12 hours, the low might not be able to get a big bite of the Canadian cold.

gfs_850_10d.gif

That is pretty subtle for 10 days out, BUT if the low DOES manage to capture a bigger bite of the Canadian cold air dome, it could be bad. Deep south snow?

Ed in Houston

 

I was thinking the same thing. It is awfully close to that super cold air mass. Wish the best for everyone over there 

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