What have you Heard?

[Moose]

 

While attending the recent Tropical Fern and Exotic Plant Society annual auction, the subject of the upcoming cold season was discussed in detail. Many folks in this Society grow some pretty rare and tender plants. The prevailing consensus was that we are in for a bad one. From el nino to we are "way past due", I'm unsure as to what scientific evidence was given.. However, most were old timer plant collectors.

What have you heard?

[Palmaceae]

The way I understand a El nino year in Florida is that we will have a cooler wetter winter. This is because of the stronger influence of the subtropical jet stream, not because of artic outbreaks. Storm tracks will be further south producing more clouds, rain and severe weather.  I got this info from the NWS website.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tae/?n=enso

Of course anything can happen but I am praying for another freeze free winter.

Edited October 30, 2015 by Palmaceae

[Zeeth]

Not really sure how we're "way past due" when 2010 broke so many records. 

[palmsOrl]

October has been warmer (and drier) than normal, not really that much different, temperature-wise than summer.  Average for the month has been 84F/68F, less hot than summer, but still excellent for palm growth. The next week looks very warm, with lows predicted to be near 70F and highs in the mid to upper 80s.  It will be quite a shock if we have our coldest afternoon of the season in mid-November, like last year.  That day, the 2 pm temperature was 47F.  I don't see any reason to suspect a higher than normal probability of significant freezes this coming winter season here.  I do anticipate a wetter and cooler than average "winter" for at least two of the cool season months.

Our winters in Orlando lately feature 1-3 marginal freezes (30-34F) most years now, so that is what I anticipate here this year (since it is our "new norm").  Only the bad years produce significant freezes (below 30F) nowadays in the city and suburbs.  The last time we had temperatures below mid 20s was 1989 (though I did record 17F in my neighborhood in the woods (no urban heat island there at that time) in Altamonte Springs in Feb 1996).

We still get some prolonged chilly spells in the winter here, which take their toll on our zone pushing gardens, so I suspect a few casualties and a somewhat worn looking garden by March, whether we have a freeze or not.

[Matthew92]

The big 2010 FL peninsula freeze was with El Nino that started in 09.

[palmsOrl]

The big 2010 FL peninsula freeze was with El Nino that started in 09.

Interesting!  I did not know that.  I'll still take 2010, over '81, '83, '85 and '89.  The difference is, royal palm (survived 2010) or no royal palm.

[Matthew92]

The big 2010 FL peninsula freeze was with El Nino that started in 09.

Interesting!  I did not know that.  I'll still take 2010, over '81, '83, '85 and '89.  The difference is, royal palm (survived 2010) or no royal palm.

I remember avidly checking the lows of each Florida city that morning. If I remember Orlando bottomed out around 27.

[PalmatierMeg]

I've also heard the "wetter and cooler" prediction. The problem for me is defining "cooler" vs "colder". If we should expect a repeat of the record 09/10 winter, cooler doesn't begin to meet the criteria. Rather I expect that instead of the typical Jan. temps of 75/55, we would see 72/52. I am probably in La-La Land just thinking this.

[palmsOrl]

The big 2010 FL peninsula freeze was with El Nino that started in 09.

Interesting!  I did not know that.  I'll still take 2010, over '81, '83, '85 and '89.  The difference is, royal palm (survived 2010) or no royal palm.

I remember avidly checking the lows of each Florida city that morning. If I remember Orlando bottomed out around 27.

I remember standing next to my car at 7am in a ski jacket, hat and gloves as light sleet fell.  The temperature was around 32F and didn't get more than a few degrees higher the whole day.  That was like a true Midwest winter day.  I actually enjoyed it.

Orlando Int'l bottomed out at 27F in Jan 2010, but recorded 24F in December 2010.  The Executive Airport got down to 28F as the lowest for the year 2010.  My yard saw 25F several times that year.  No winter at my location has been below 29F(maybe 30F) since.  This past February we saw a low of around 30-31F in Winter Park.  It was interesting to drive around my area and see papaya trees completely fried and black in some spots and untouched in others.  Papayas are actually naturalizing here, as I have several that sprouted in the yard this year that were not planted.  Now, if I have anything to do with it, so will Roystonea in the next 20-30 years.

I don't see any specific reason to expect a repeat of 2010, as that was quite rare.  Certainly possible though.  Along the lines of what Meg posted, I would expect cooler than normal temperatures, so instead of 49/71F (I think downtown averages more like 50/72F from my research) for the month of January, the average could be something like 48/68F with frequent cloudy days and rainy spells.

Edited October 31, 2015 by palmsOrl

[Moose]

Three inches of rain yesterday. So far November has been averaging 10 degrees F above normal.

[palmsOrl]

Zero rain here in the past almost 2 weeks after a brief interruption to the 4 week dry spell in October.  Temperatures were down to near normal for a couple days and are now running 5 degrees above normal for highs and almost 10F above normal for lows.  Let the watering continue....

[donalt]

On October 30, 2015 at 11:16:15 AM, Palmaceae said:

The way I understand a El nino year in Florida is that we will have a cooler wetter winter. This is because of the stronger influence of the subtropical jet stream, not because of artic outbreaks. Storm tracks will be further south producing more clouds, rain and severe weather.  I got this info from the NWS website.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tae/?n=enso

Of course anything can happen but I am praying for another freeze free winter.

El niño winters in Florida are wetter, and thus, cooler. But not necessarily colder. The subtropical jet stream generally sets up in the Florida Panhandle, keeping warm, wet weather to the south of it, and blocking arctic air from pushing into Florida. Of course, the jet stream can temporarily change, and if it coincides with south advancing polar air, that could be problem.

 

[Silas_Sancona]

Thus far, fall 2015 has been much warmer than average here, sans the one or two days of actual "fallish"  temps which in reality  only dropped down to within the averaged norm for the area. Very little doubt that this will be the warmest.. or within the top 3 warmest novembers for the Sarasota/Bradenton area, let alone the Tampa Bay Area as a whole. December looks to start off warm as well..

As for this year's El nino, would anticipate a delayed start to the suggested wet/coolish conditions a strong ENSO is expected to bring. As strong as the current cycle is shaping up to be,  lets just say be ready to deal with severe weather. The Jan- March timeframe could be quite eventful. 

As far as cold??... the outbreak experienced back in 09-10 was a rarity, one I don't see repeating itself this year.. for one, both the NAO and AO went hard negative right before. That years el nino was also weak. Both the NAO and AO look to stay strongly positive atm and, none of the forecasters i follow see any signs of stratospheric warming over the artic anytime soon.. sure, that could change.. weather always does.. have a feeling no repeat freezes are in the cards this winter though.. anyway, 

As far as the strength of this El Nino, last weeks readings in both the 3.4 and 3.0 region topped a whopping 3.1 which beats anything seen during the peak of the 97-98 cycle. Eagerly awaiting tomorrows update as readings of 4.0c were being detected in the same regions.  Really, there is only one thing left in order for this years el nino to surpass anything seen in 1997 in any part of the pacific where critical readings are collected.. and I won't be surprised if we smash it before April.  Interestingly, there are some forecasts calling for another stong WWB  episode setting up in the west pacific later in Jan. El Nino, part 2???  Don't believe it just yet but ya never know. For now, understand that this years cycle has been a slow mover, thus the effects of it looking more likely to occur later in the season rather than earlier.

[SubTropicRay]

El Nino is a bust in Florida so far.  The last three months have had below normal precipitation locally and above normal temps (I'm ok with the latter). 

[Matthew92]

Don't be fooled. For those of us on the Upper Gulf Coast, the last few months of 2013 were mild, and then we know what happened in 2014.

[Palmaceae]

On 12/1/2015, 2:33:33, SubTropicRay said:

El Nino is a bust in Florida so far.  The last three months have had below normal precipitation locally and above normal temps (I'm ok with the latter). 

It certainly has been warmer than normal but the precipitation has been above normal here in SW Florida. November rain, 3.49" and today I have already recieved 2".

 

[Zeeth]

15 minutes ago, Palmaceae said:

It certainly has been warmer than normal but the precipitation has been above normal here in SW Florida. November rain, 3.49" and today I have already recieved 2".

 

I only got an inch in November, but there was some scattered rain in my area today. 

[SubTropicRay]

The measurable rain events (i.e. you get soaked under a big tree canopy) have been limited to 2 since October 1.

[Palmaceae]

We recieved 3.63" since yesterday, the palms are happy! Hopefully you will get some rain in central Florida soon.

[TexasColdHardyPalms]

We've been considerable cooler than average the last 10 days and the 7.5-11" of rainfall over thanksgiving weekend pushed us into the wettest year on record, even though we had a 90+day strench with zero precipitation this summer. Temps are currently right below average but look to move to above average this weekend and the next 10 days. 

I agree with palmsOrl outlook on this winter.

[Mr. Coconut Palm]

Here in Corpus Christi, last week we had below normal temps with highs in the 50's and 60's and lows in the 40's.  The normal high/low is 70F/50F.  This week, we are supposed to be above normal with highs in the 70s and low 80's and lows in the 50's and low 60's.  Hopefully we won't have a repeat of the last two chilly damp winters here in South Texas.  So far, the lowest low temps here were 40.8F at my place in Flour Bluff and 38F at the airport on 11/23, which is early in the season to be getting that chilly.

[_Keith]

This year is certainly now repeat of the previous two.   Great cool, but not cold weather.  Slightly above normal.  Most 30 day forecast show it staying that way.  I can only hope and pray that we catch one of those 10a winters we get every now and then.  The palms and other things deserve a long over due break to catch their breath.     

[Ed in Houston]

The last 10 years Houston Hobby

     
2015    30    10a

2014    25    9b

2013    31    10a

2012    31    10a

2011    23    9a

2010    21    9a

2009    27    9b

2008    32    10a

2007    29    9b    

2006    30    10a

Ed in Houston

 

[Moose]

Cold is on its way. The growing season never slowed down, the daylight time only shortened.

[palmsOrl]

Two days of much cooler weather followed by another warm up to temperatures at least as warm as they have been lately.  I have begun to look at the greenhouse as a big useless box in the middle of my yard.  But I know better, the time will come.  It appears that we will be safe from cold weather 45F> through the end of December.  Then essentially we just have two months to go!

Our cool season from October 1 until now has had temperatures that are around average for Miami during the same period (even warmer in some cases).

[Moose]

7 hours ago, palmsOrl said:

Two days of much cooler weather followed by another warm up to temperatures at least as warm as they have been lately.  I have begun to look at the greenhouse as a big useless box in the middle of my yard.  But I know better, the time will come.  It appears that we will be safe from cold weather 45F> through the end of December.  Then essentially we just have two months to go!

Our cool season from October 1 until now has had temperatures that are around average for Miami during the same period (even warmer in some cases).

Orlando has definitely become a heat island in the center of the state. But when old man frost makes an occasional appearance, you be glad you have that greenhouse. Insurance against the Frost of Doom.

[Matthew92]

Just had the first freeze this morning. Down to 31 degrees with frost. Not that bad though: as of now the bananas still look untouched and many annuals mostly unscathed.

[Moose]

Here it just relief from all the heat and humidity. Perfect temperature for December in my opinion.

[Ed in Houston]

I have heard that zone 10 is coming to the Texas coast.

 

I have also heard that it is getting colder in Florida due to global warming.

 

But what the heck.

I have also heard that it is going to be be warmer in the west and cooler in the S.E. this winter, exactly the opposite that we have seen thus far.

 

This leads me to prefer the Eeny Meeny Miny Moe method of weather/climate forecasting.

Ed in Houston

 

[palmsOrl]

Looks like zone 10 will eventually be made official for the southern half of Central FL, up to, and including Orlando, which is already a zone 10a by definition, due to the heat island.  Not a S. FL zone 10 though, so you are right Moose.  The greenhouse will be a necessity to protect anything not in the ground.  The C. renda is planted in the greenhouse and a few species, like Areca concinna, Pinanga crassipes and Areca montana will likely be destined for the same placement.  My new greenhouse is 10' X 10' (old was 6 X 8) and is not insulated and lets a lot of air in where the greenhouse base meets the cinder block foundation, so two good space heaters are only keeping the temperature 7-11F above ambient.  Just tested it the past two days.  I have some major work to do on this since I aim to keep the temperature 20F above ambient with two space heaters running.  If we have a night down to 30F, I want 50F in the greenhouse, not 40F.

I have read some hints of a pattern shift coming toward the New Year, and my gut tells me January and February are not going to feature the extreme warm anomalies we have seen so far this cool season.

[Silas_Sancona]

Forget zone 10.. thus far, the lowest temp recorded here in Bradenton, according to accuweather, has been 48f so far this fall and if the extended forecast that goes out to Feb. 2nd stays "within the ballpark" we might not experience anything below 40f.. Hard to fathom the potential of a zone 11 winter, perhaps closer to 12. Then again i noticed buds swelling on a couple of the large Bombax cebia trees on the old Bradenton herald property on my way back from Kopsick this morning. Been watching flowers rapidly swelling on one of my Shaving brush seedlingsover the last couple weeks. Hackberry trees along the west side of our property line are trying to push new leaves..  80s expected all week here.  Bbq for Christmas?? Quite likely this year. Such a weird end to 2015. 

 

 

 

[Zeeth]

23 hours ago, Ed in Houston said:

I have heard that zone 10 is coming to the Texas coast.

 

I have also heard that it is getting colder in Florida due to global warming.

 

But what the heck.

I have also heard that it is going to be be warmer in the west and cooler in the S.E. this winter, exactly the opposite that we have seen thus far.

 

This leads me to prefer the Eeny Meeny Miny Moe method of weather/climate forecasting.

Ed in Houston

 

I made some charts of the minimum temperature every year since 1949 for a few weather stations and created a trend line. Most of the data doesn't show much change over the years, but Kopsick looks like it's gotten about a degree warmer for some reason.

[palmsOrl]

Excellent charts Keith!  So it would appear that the overall trend for average annual minimums has been up, just a hair over the past 66 years.  This slight increase could be due to the effects of human civilization (increasing development) alone.  Notice the station that showed the greatest increase is Kopsick, which is in/near the heart of the city of St. Petersburg.  I am sure St. Petersburg was not the metropolis in 1949 that it is today.

[Zeeth]

42 minutes ago, palmsOrl said:

Excellent charts Keith!  So it would appear that the overall trend for average annual minimums has been up, just a hair over the past 66 years.  This slight increase could be due to the effects of human civilization (increasing development) alone.  Notice the station that showed the greatest increase is Kopsick, which is in/near the heart of the city of St. Petersburg.  I am sure St. Petersburg was not the metropolis in 1949 that it is today.

Yeah, I'm not sure what caused the increase at Kopsick compared to the other locations. It could be a result of an urban heat island, but it could also be something about the Tampa bay that changed (maybe the depth increased after they dredged for shipping channels?).

 

Here's one that I made for Orlando using the executive airport. 

[Moose]

Heat and humidity return. December should have overnight lows in the 60's° F not the 70's° F. 

[Silas_Sancona]

82-85 forecasted here tomorrow, and again on x-mas eve, christmas day.. Maybe close to... 90... for some of the inland locales just east of us tomorrow. 87-90f,  ..on December 23rd.. and maybe again thursday and/or friday.. Epic, truly epic. 

[NorCalKing]

Anybody who thinks temps 10-20 degrees above normal is the new norm, or thinking winter will never arrive, may be in for a rude awakening.

[palmsOrl]

Thank you for posting the Orlando Executive Airport chart Keith!!  I was only able to find reliable data for that station back to 1988, so that is very useful to have on-hand.  Zone 10 by any measure, the city of Orlando is Also, interesting to note that the Orlando Executive Airport (unlike the Int'l Airport) has apparently never been below 20F.  Finally, this chart does a nice job of showing how the 2010 cold wave compares to the real deal, not seen since 1989.  Or perhaps the chart demonstrates how record cold is modified during the most recent events, once urbanization hit some certain threshold level.

Edited December 24, 2015 by palmsOrl

[Moose]

No Polar Vortex ... 

May be the warmest December for Miami since they started maintaining records.

[Cocoa Beach Jason]

On December 23, 2015 at 12:27:05 AM, NorCalKing said:

Anybody who thinks temps 10-20 degrees above normal is the new norm, or thinking winter will never arrive, may be in for a rude awakening.

Stop cursing us with your bad vibes.