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trioderob

BUY BUY BUY.....

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trioderob

and yes Dean is right.

the market is making predictions before you and I do.

no one person has all the information which will drive the market.

some of the information is unknowable.

the real question is are you the last one to the dinner table ?

and

are you the last one out of the burning building ?

Edited by trioderob

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Dypsisdean

now the real question and I am sure you will agree is did I do better than just leaving it in the whole time - and that you do not have the answer to.

You haven't been paying attention. My answer is that you, and a large majority of professionals, will not do better over 30-40 years. And you will never do better over the long haul than dollar cost averaging into the market with a disciplined long term diversified strategy. Can I prove it - no. But I believe the burden of proof would be yours. And you haven't even provided proof of one successful trade yet.

Sure, even in Vegas you can have a good week/month/year. But stay in the casinos for 30-40 years and the odds will find you. Long term dollar cost averaging places the odds in your favor - and long term they always win out.

and if the thread was boring to you - you would have been gone long ago - true ?

I never thought the thread was boring. Mainly because I thought you claimed to be able to make money with your predictions. And I like to make money. But now that it is obvious that while you claim to make money for yourself, you will not share with us how you do it - just proclamations of another "I nailed it," or "just as I predicted." So, unfortunately that will now make this a very boring topic for me.

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trioderob

Dean-

You repeat the same point over and over again.

your turn:

without talking about me in any way:

where do you feel the market is headed ?

do you think that the greek deal will go thru to law ?

do you think US will raise interest rates this year ?

what are your feelings on emerging market stocks ?

where do you feel in the USA are real estate prices so low that they represent a good buying opportunity ?

how do you determine your major "inflection" points and do you feel one is coming for US equities ?

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Dypsisdean

where do you feel the market is headed ?

I think it will be higher in 5 years.

do you think that the greek deal will go thru to law ?

I couldn't care less. While it may be responsible for jerky short term moves, it is the overall American economy and individual company profits that I concern myself with.

do you think US will raise interest rates this year ?

If they do, it will be a none issue since it will be only 1/4 percent to levels still well below "normal."

what are your feelings on emerging market stocks ?

Foreign markets aren't transparent enough for me - nor "trustworthy" enough. Any country that can stop you from selling your stocks, or prohibit you from shorting stocks, or nationalize a business - I am not interested in.

where do you feel in the USA are real estate prices so low that they represent a good buying opportunity ?

I have no idea whatsoever. Buying and maintaining real estate that I can't easily visit in an hour is of no interest to me. Like the stock market, I prefer to consider individual companies/houses. But I do keep an eye on the overall markets.

how do you determine your major "inflection" points and do you feel one is coming for US equities ?

Inflection points seem to occur at times of extreme (and I mean extreme) pessimism or optimism - when the last thing you feel you should do is pull the contrarian trigger. I don't forecast them, only react as they may develop. They never occur overnight - taking many weeks, months, or years to set up. If they were easy to recognize, I would be rich.

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trioderob

thank you for that invaluable information.

and on that high-note I wish you all

-adieu-mon-cheri-.png

Edited by trioderob

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NorthFlpalmguy

Hey Rob, Frank Zane was too small to be a great Mr. Olympia

just kiddin' :winkie:

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trioderob

Dean-

I challenge you to make any kind of a call on the general US stock markets - right here and now

I "double-dog" dare you

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waykoolplantz

10 days of being ignored....surprised you lasted this long

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Dypsisdean

Dean-

I challenge you to make any kind of a call on the general US stock markets - right here and now

I "double-dog" dare you

Really Rob,

- how many times do I have to tell you. I have never once claimed to be able to make calls. In fact, I have tried to emphasize that I can't, and that neither can you. (this must be at least the 20th time I have said that). What is it about my repeated "I'm not smart enough" that you don't seem to understand? If we were able to, we could have a plane with our name on the side - just like Trump's.

- and I have very rarely bought into the general market, instead preferring individual issues. And only occasionally doing so as a short term hedge.

- I have only (for your interest) outlined what I have possibly found as the only way timing the market for a small investor may be possible. And I emphasize "possibly." It has worked for me the last 6-7 years, but that doesn't mean it's anywhere close to a proven successful strategy. I could/would never make the claims/calls you seem comfortable making.

All I care about at the moment is my one large position in AAPL - taken publicly here - and up over 100%. If I am outperforming the market, I am happy. The market is essentially flat for the year, yet AAPL is up almost 15% - even after a bad earnings report. That is why I don't invest/trade the general market, and choose individual issues instead.

As a friendly observation - - you seem overly fixated, fascinated, and fearful of big short term downdrafts in the market. You just have to accept the fact that they are the nature of the beast, lurking there at all times, and that you will never see them coming in time to capitalize. And while if you are really astute, you may be able to spot a long term bear, but if you are constantly fearful of one you will spend most of your time missing the bull.

post-11-0-07557400-1437773639_thumb.png

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trioderob

ok - so no call DEAN ?

Edited by trioderob

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trioderob

10 days of being ignored....surprised you lasted this long

and yet you are here by my side ................ :bemused:

ok - I outta here - be back at some unspecified time

you guys will be back too -LOL

I defy you to just ignore this thread - bwwaaaaaaa haaaaaaa haaaaaaaaa

Edited by trioderob

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Dypsisdean

ok - so no call DEAN ?

I'll give you the call I've given you before.

The odds are overwhelming that the market will be higher 15-20 years from today.

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trioderob

I'm outta here.

too boring

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waykoolplantz

10 days of being ignored....surprised you lasted this long

and yet you are here by my side ................ :bemused:

ok - I outta here - be back at some unspecified time

you guys will be back too -LOL

I defy you to just ignore this thread - bwwaaaaaaa haaaaaaa haaaaaaaaa

Self immolation is horrifying and smelly....but oh what a lovely glow

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trioderob

Dean-

I guess you really don't get it still

what I am talking about is one of your major inflection points

let me reword this to be clear

ARE THE GENERAL US MARKETS ABOUT TO ENTER A PRIMARY BEAR MARKET WITHIN THE NEXT 1-3 MONTHS ?

and folks if you want to join my thread please do - but enter a view point - don't just be a "nay sayer " and put me down or enter a snide remark - that "girle-man" stuff

(except for you Kim - I know you are a pro and cant legally talk here - just leave nuggets of wisdom)

Edited by trioderob

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Dypsisdean

Dean-

I guess you really don't get it still

ARE THE GENERAL US MARKETS ABOUT TO ENTER A PRIMARY BEAR MARKET WITHIN THE NEXT 1-3 MONTHS ?

And I would reply that you still don't get it. I will say it once again (and this is getting very old). I can not tell you what the general market will do a month from now. A major inflection point is a multi-year move - the last one about 7 years ago. But no, I don't see a primary bear market (depending on your definition) beginning in the next 1-3 months. And apparently you don't either, because your last call (the one that started this topic), was for a "big bull run."

But a scary 10% correction wouldn't surprise me - and I have reduced my margin to near zero over the last year - just as a prudent conservative stance so I have some capital available if such a correction/opportunity would occur.

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Dypsisdean

BTW - Gold looks to be closing in on what may be one of those multi-year inflection points. It is on my radar.

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trioderob

GOLD

ya every trader on the planet is looking at THAT chart

good luck

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Dypsisdean

GOLD

ya every trader on the planet is looking at THAT chart

good luck

That's why it's not time yet. Wait until it has a nine hundred handle, and people start giving up - predicting next stop five hundred. I am looking for some panic if it breaks $1000, and thinking there is some long term value in the low nine hundreds. But that is a long way from here.

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Bags

Dean-

I guess you really don't get it still

what I am talking about is one of your major inflection points

let me reword this to be clear

ARE THE GENERAL US MARKETS ABOUT TO ENTER A PRIMARY BEAR MARKET WITHIN THE NEXT 1-3 MONTHS ?

I say no, at least not without interest rates rising. With bond yields close to the same as the S&P 500 it is going to be hard for stocks to go down 30% and have them yield .5% more than bonds. Of course it could happen, but it would be a good buying opportunity.

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trioderob

here is the deal IMHO

there are many countries such as Brazil and Russia that did not properly diversify

they were living off their natural resources and now that metals / natural resources / oil are selling off combined with the fed raising rates - turning their money into toilet paper - half the worlds economies are hurting

lets look at a chart of copper:

http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical_large.html

I am in disagreement with Dean as far as he stated that a small interest rate increase was somewhat inconsequential in that it sets off a chain reaction around the world - lets look and see how these countries are doing today:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=EEM

in addition China is now back down another 8% in the last few days.

so there is a downward spiral - happening - even Canada our neighbor is officially in a major slump

so beware - this could turn around - but it also could turn into a SELL SELL SELL

-I OUTTA HERE-

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Dypsisdean

I am in disagreement with Dean as far as he stated that a small interest rate increase was somewhat inconsequential in that it sets off a chain reaction around the world - lets look and see how these countries are doing today:

As I have said before, the reason for any interest rate increase is what matters. An increase despite weak economies worldwide would/could cause problems. But I don't think Janet would raise rates unless she sees some sustained growth on the horizon. I just can't see how such a well announced 1/4 pt increase, if our economy is sound, would have much of a long lasting impact.

But the more commodities stay low, and inflation a total non-issue, rates are not going more than a 1/4 pt. higher any time soon.

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Pando

i agree 100 %

Whew! Finally! Can we move on now? :)

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trioderob

yes-

I can not think of a more harmonious moment to end the thread.

and with that:

12258-over-powered-classic-this_thread_w

Edited by trioderob

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