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trioderob

BUY BUY BUY.....

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trioderob

“Hence we will not say that Greeks fight like heroes, but that heroes fight like Greeks!” - Winston Churchill
Edited by trioderob

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trioderob

I cant keep feeding out "mothers milk"

but one last tidbit- the true Greek default did not happen - the real default happens July 20 if THAT payment is missed.

here is the guidelines

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-27/greece-risk-timeline-why-july-20-matters-most

I AM SO OUTTA HERE ITS NOT EVEN FUNNY

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Dypsisdean

Step by step

Two weeks trading with Triode:

bought back in at the start of the day and believe a big bull run is just started here.

Monday could be up big on hopes of a last minute deal - if it fall thru - Tuesday could be down huge.

chart is starting to look ugly - this guy does not agree with my rally call

I am still holding - loaded long

might be a huge up day.

I am getting a bad feeling...

what looks like a very nice buy buy buy could turn into a crash right before the 4TH of July

just as predicted - down we go

market looks to be in a "holding pattern"

lets see if this turns into a panic sell - if so - it would be a great time to buy

mini panic - default - big panic - deal

this is somewhat of a change from my previous thoughts

and down we go big-time ............................

just as predicted

if this turns into chaos - that would be very bearish

YEEEEEE HAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !

UP WE GO

For the record — after two weeks of this thread, the S & P has dropped 1%.

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trioderob

DEAN-

you must be joking !

I called it almost to perfection here - and not the day after - all my calls were the day before

I asked you not to do your baby games at the start of the thread

Edited by trioderob

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trioderob

by the way- I was not in the SP - I was in the RUT WHICH IS DOWN 3% in the last 5 days

Step by step
Two decades trading with Dean: you buy in and hold- if it crashes into the abyss - you pray

Edited by trioderob

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Dypsisdean

Step by step

Two decades trading with Dean: you buy in and hold- if it crashes into the abyss - you pray

Hmmmmm - no prayer needed if investing.

Last two decades - if you bought in and held - you would be up 270% today. With reinvesting dividends, closer to 350%

post-11-0-31971000-1435901269_thumb.png

Last three decades - you would be up over 1000% - close to 1500% reinvesting dividends.

post-11-0-54651500-1435901357_thumb.png

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trioderob

unless you needed the money in 2008 - then you would be down 68%

oh yea that's right there are 15 year periods where it does nothing or is down - hope you don't need the money then

folks think I am wrong ? - look for yourself

lets say you wanted to retire in 1961 or 99 or 2007 - and you were not adding to your account anymore cause you were in your mid 60s and retired - oh thats right you are screwed

but Dean wont talk about that

secular-bear-market-chart.gif

Edited by trioderob

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trioderob

and how many of us believe that when Deans $1,000,000 in the market became $370,000 in 2008 -he was fine.

what did he do ?

did he "buy and hold' as he claims you should do or did he panic and sell ?

Edited by trioderob

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Dypsisdean

but Dean wont talk about that

I don't know how you could have missed that lesson. It's been mentioned to you a half dozen times.

You have no business putting money in the stock market if you can't keep it there for at least 5-10+ years. If you are forced to liquidate at a bad time, or panic and sell, it is your own fault - not the market's.

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Dypsisdean

and how many of us believe that when Deans $1,000,000 in the market became $370,000 in 2008 -he was fine.

what did he do ?

did he "buy and hold' as he claims you should do or did he panic and sell ?

I guess you are never going to "get it."

To take your hypothetical - since I had been investing for 30 yrs prior to 2008, even at the panic low I was sitting on substantial gains - so why panic?

I didn't panic and sell my home of 30 years either - same rationale. It too lost about half it's value from the high - but was still worth way more than what I paid for it.

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Bags

Rob do you know there is another asset class called bonds? They usually go up when stocks crash. Most people who need the money hold both stocks and bonds and rebalance when one goes up or down. It's a widely accepted strategy.

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trioderob

ok folks DEAN will be keeping the thread going now and we can read his tips

:interesting:

Edited by trioderob

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trioderob

Rob do you know there is another asset class called bonds? They usually go up when stocks crash. Most people who need the money hold both stocks and bonds and rebalance when one goes up or down. It's a widely accepted strategy.

that's not "buy and hold" that's selling something to buy another because you think you can time the market.

and yes I have heard of bonds -way before you.

but ok lets do it your way - right now what % should a retiree be in bonds and what % stock ?

if this changes in the next year please make a post

DEAN - you too

a guy who retired this week - what does he invest in today and what %'s ???

and if this dramatically changes you make a post also Sir

Edited by trioderob

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Dypsisdean

DEAN - you too

a guy who retired this week - what does he invest in today and what %'s ???

That's easy - besides owning your own home if that is your wish, you should own enough secure income producing assests (real estate and/or paper) to meet your living expenses - nothing speculative. Anything you have over and above that, spend it however your heart desires - including Vegas or following your stock trading advice. Vegas is probably safer.

After you retire, your investing should be nearly over - you should be living off of your investments - that's the name of the game.

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Bags

Rob do you know there is another asset class called bonds? They usually go up when stocks crash. Most people who need the money hold both stocks and bonds and rebalance when one goes up or down. It's a widely accepted strategy.

that's not "buy and hold" that's selling something to buy another because you think you can time the market.

and yes I have heard of bonds -way before you.

but ok lets do it your way - right now what % should a retiree be in bonds and what % stock ?

if this changes in the next year please make a post

The % of what to own depends on your situation, but you could simply take 120-age and put it into stocks. The rest in bonds. A 60 year old would have 40% bonds and 60% stocks. Withdraw 4% the first year and increase by inflation every year. If the average person did that with broad low fee index funds they would have a very good chance of the money lasting the rest of their lives.

I personally would put more like 30% in bonds at 60 because bonds are not a great deal right now, Total US bond market is only paying 2% interest vs historic 4-6%. A mix of US and international stocks pays a higher yield with the potential of growth. I would also include 10-20% of the stock portion in a REIT index fund as well. Right now paying 3.75% dividend with a long history of dividends growing faster than inflation.

Now tell me why this is a bad idea and what is a better strategy.

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Bags

…also avoid fees and taxes as much as possible, buy putting money in ROTH IRAs and 401ks, and using index funds in taxable accounts. Buy and hold as much as possible especially in taxable accounts.

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trioderob

Rob do you know there is another asset class called bonds? They usually go up when stocks crash. Most people who need the money hold both stocks and bonds and rebalance when one goes up or down. It's a widely accepted strategy.

that's not "buy and hold" that's selling something to buy another because you think you can time the market.

and yes I have heard of bonds -way before you.

but ok lets do it your way - right now what % should a retiree be in bonds and what % stock ?

if this changes in the next year please make a post

The % of what to own depends on your situation, but you could simply take 120-age and put it into stocks. The rest in bonds. A 60 year old would have 40% bonds and 60% stocks. Withdraw 4% the first year and increase by inflation every year. If the average person did that with broad low fee index funds they would have a very good chance of the money lasting the rest of their lives.

I personally would put more like 30% in bonds at 60 because bonds are not a great deal right now, Total US bond market is only paying 2% interest vs historic 4-6%. A mix of US and international stocks pays a higher yield with the potential of growth. I would also include 10-20% of the stock portion in a REIT index fund as well. Right now paying 3.75% dividend with a long history of dividends growing faster than inflation.

Now tell me why this is a bad idea and what is a better strategy.

according to Dean what you suggest is a bad idea - that puts you at 60% stocks at or close to retirement age

thats an investment and a big Dean "NO-NO"

in fact- he feels so strongly about this that he did stick to his own words and missed one of the greatest bull markets of all time

even posted this transaction on the forum

Edited by trioderob

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Dypsisdean

in fact- he feels so strongly about this that he did stick to his own words and missed one of the greatest bull markets of all time

I guess you got me there Rob.

I have missed out on the last 2-3 years. So instead of the 2000% buy and hold gains/dividends of the last 45 yrs, I only enjoyed about 1900% of the total move to date.

But that assumes that something even more profitable wasn't done with that money - like a large position taken in Apple, now up 100% in the last 2 yrs - as posted here on the forum - a very nice chunk of change. Or just using it to enjoy life - priceless.

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Bags

Rob do you know there is another asset class called bonds? They usually go up when stocks crash. Most people who need the money hold both stocks and bonds and rebalance when one goes up or down. It's a widely accepted strategy.

that's not "buy and hold" that's selling something to buy another because you think you can time the market.

and yes I have heard of bonds -way before you.

but ok lets do it your way - right now what % should a retiree be in bonds and what % stock ?

if this changes in the next year please make a post

The % of what to own depends on your situation, but you could simply take 120-age and put it into stocks. The rest in bonds. A 60 year old would have 40% bonds and 60% stocks. Withdraw 4% the first year and increase by inflation every year. If the average person did that with broad low fee index funds they would have a very good chance of the money lasting the rest of their lives.

I personally would put more like 30% in bonds at 60 because bonds are not a great deal right now, Total US bond market is only paying 2% interest vs historic 4-6%. A mix of US and international stocks pays a higher yield with the potential of growth. I would also include 10-20% of the stock portion in a REIT index fund as well. Right now paying 3.75% dividend with a long history of dividends growing faster than inflation.

Now tell me why this is a bad idea and what is a better strategy.

according to Dean what you suggest is a bad idea - that puts you at 60% stocks at or close to retirement age

thats an investment and a big Dean "NO-NO"

in fact- he feels so strongly about this that he did stick to his own words and missed one of the greatest bull markets of all time

even posted this transaction on the forum

What would you do with your money if you were retired?

All Dean said was money you need in the next 10 years should not be in stocks. If you use a 4% withdrawal rate that puts 40% of your money in bonds and right at the 60/40 stock bond mix.

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Dypsisdean

And one size does definitely not fit all. Some people at 65 are still running marathons, and some are wheeling around an oxygen tank.

And some wish to leave here pennyless, while some wish to pass along some of their wealth.

But the point is that you should never put yourself in a position where you have to sell stock in order to survive - because it will inevitably be when times are tough and stocks are down. It's actually a pretty simple concept.

When Bags is 70, he'll be sitting with a nice retirement fund and think back on these posts with a smile. I hope he runs into Triode so they can compare notes.

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trioderob

have fun guys

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Bags

have fun guys

But Rob you haven't told us your strategy for investing. You mostly make predictions like "if it's good news the market will go up, bad news it will go down" and then say you nailed it when one of those things happens. No real strategy there. If you are 60 retiring and have a million dollars what are you going to do with it?

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Dypsisdean

have fun guys

But Rob you haven't told us your strategy for investing. You mostly make predictions like "if it's good news the market will go up, bad news it will go down" and then say you nailed it when one of those things happens. No real strategy there. If you are 60 retiring and have a million dollars what are you going to do with it?

I can answer that for you Aaron.

He will wait until the market is up "huge" in the afternoon. Then tell you he bought in at the open, and that a big bull run has started. Then a few days later he will say he has a bad feeling, but is still long. Then if the market drops, he says he nailed it. Of course if the market goes up, he also nailed it. With his strategy, you can't help but make money - whether you are retired or not.

Why can't you see that?

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trioderob

just remember Dean is the guy who bailed out just before the greatest bull run in 70 years and on top of that he is going to miss the rest of it too.

but he will tell you what a genius he is

I on the other hand told you there was going to be trouble the day before it happened with Greece and it was the biggest down day of the year

I also told exactly why it would happen and I was right when almost EVERYONE was calling for a deal to be made.

Dean has nothing of any substance to add - he is not in the market now and has been out for years except for a small Apple position which went up in the middle of the bull run.

Edited by trioderob

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Dypsisdean

I on the other hand told you there was going to be trouble the day before it happened with Greece and it was the biggest down day of the year

But did you make any money?

Three days before that you were still "loaded long" from your "big bull run" call. Do you want us to believe you sold that position, went short, and didn't bother to mention it?

But then again, you have never yet announced a full round trip trade (in and out) in real time.

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trioderob

ok folks-

this is where it gets interesting - a "no" vote will bring a big down day Monday

first polls look like the "no" is in the lead

http://www.businessinsider.com/greece-referendum-live-blog-of-yes-no-vote-on-grexit-2015-7#ixzz3f2AAMSAf

and

https://twitter.com/spz_trader/status/617724629029941250

(Dean I will no longer respond to your posts)

Edited by trioderob

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Dypsisdean

And the question remains - will Rob use these "predictive abilities" to make any money?

a "no" vote will bring a big down day Monday


What that means to me is that the market will go up or down tomorrow, depending on the news - just like any day.

All Rob has to do to prove his point is to tell us immediately after he takes a position, and what it is. And then again immediately after he takes any profit, I will be the first to congratulate him. But I won't hold my breath.

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trioderob

ok so German futures are down 3%

that would be many billions in euro lost for them on Monday

lets see if they cut a deal overnight to avoid this ........

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trioderob

US stock futures down huge

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Alicehunter2000

Yes.....I think the market will probably be down today......7:45 am .....my prediction. ....no money day trading....got some long term retirement investments.

Wouldn't a good strategy be to have both long term and short term positions (if you enjoy that type of trading) ..... like both Rob and Dean? I've done both...made money both ways.....the short term stuff was made and spent....long term is waiting for retirement.

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NorthFlpalmguy

Yes.....I think the market will probably be down today......7:45 am .....my prediction. ....no money day trading....got some long term retirement investments.

Wouldn't a good strategy be to have both long term and short term positions (if you enjoy that type of trading) ..... like both Rob and Dean? I've done both...made money both ways.....the short term stuff was made and spent....long term is waiting for retirement.

I think so. Basically all I do is play with "mad money" on the small cap stuff, biotechs and exploration companies are my favorite gambles :) . The vast majority are long term though. My dad has always been a buy and hold and I just don't find it engaging to watch the market much unless I have the shorter term stocks.

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trioderob

now it all depends on if Merkel wants to continue the fight.

markets wont be happy for days over this

any timid remarks by her and they skyrocket

I will check back in when there is a major change to the above scenario

news driven market - big risk - big reward

no way to predict at this point

-peace out-

Edited by trioderob

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trioderob

looks like things will happen faster than i thought.....

ECB putting strangle hold on greek banks today

greece will have to agree to a deal or the money flow will end in a few days

tuesday will be a huge day news wise

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Dypsisdean

Wouldn't a good strategy be to have both long term and short term positions

It is not so much the difference between long and short term, it is the difference between "investing"

and "trading" (or timing the market).

Investing (only long term) --- While there is no such thing as a 100% "sure thing" investment, there are proven long term strategies (20-40 yrs.) that when used appropriately make stocks perhaps the most profitable passive investment vehicle available.

Trading (short or long term) --- Anyone can make a profitable trade, or pick the right horse at the track. But getting lucky and picking a winner should never be confused with expertise. A successful trader could easily, and with 100% certainty, demonstrate his abiltities - just list all buys and sells in real time. But just like the guy who tells you he makes money at the track - he will never show you all the tickets he is holding before the race. Because then it would be apparent that his loses add up to more than his gains.

For those professionals, who do document all their trades, the results are evident - very very very few beat the market consistently over time - and even fewer with knee-jerk day trading.

But it's your money, and a free country.

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Alicehunter2000

Yes.....I think the market will probably be down today......7:45 am .....my prediction. ....no money day trading....got some long term retirement investments.

Wouldn't a good strategy be to have both long term and short term positions (if you enjoy that type of trading) ..... like both Rob and Dean? I've done both...made money both ways.....the short term stuff was made and spent....long term is waiting for retirement.

I think so. Basically all I do is play with "mad money" on the small cap stuff, biotechs and exploration companies are my favorite gambles :) . The vast majority are long term though. My dad has always been a buy and hold and I just don't find it engaging to watch the market much unless I have the shorter term stocks.

Exactly........I happen to think the odds of Swing Trading are much better than a casino. Day trading is a little too short term for me.

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trioderob

and down ,,,,,we,,,,,,,,go.........clunk !

just as predicted

"markets wont be happy for days over this" - Trioderob

-peace out-

have fun

Edited by trioderob

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trioderob

side note-

German market down huge today - as long as Greece can tank their market they will do nothing and keep peppering them with body blows. Billions in German wealth gone in days.

they know that if they can get the germans to scream "uncle" they will get a much better offer.

notice the Greeks did not even submit a new proposal today - they will be in no rush to deal until the German market bottoms out.

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NorthFlpalmguy

and down ,,,,,we,,,,,,,,go.........clunk !

just as predicted

"markets wont be happy for days over this" - Trioderob

-peace out-

have fun

But a good time to possibly make a buy or two in a few more days.

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trioderob

I AM OUTTA HERE - THE THREAD HAS TO HAVE AN END SOMEWHERE

KEEP AN EYE ON WHAT CHINA DOES HERE / WHAT EMERGING MARKETS ARE DOING / DOES FED RAISE RATES - OTHER ISSUE BESIDES GREECE - DONT GET TRICKED !

- PEACE OUT-

-GOOD LUCK-

- HAVE FUN -

Edited by trioderob

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