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_Keith

Mid Feb Arctic Blast - Fear in your heart

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_Keith

Well, here is a forecast to strike fear in your heart.

WHEN AND WHERE WILL THE COLDEST AIR BE?

Well, the coldest air will likely enter the Southeastern US between Friday and Sunday of next week. We will be able to pin point an exact date by Tuesday or Wednesday. So where will the coldest air be? The coldest air will likely be over the Eastern and Southeastern US. The Gulf Coast states that are most likely to be impacted are Eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Northern Florida. This could change by next weekend as things become clearer. It is also unknown how far the cold air will make it into Florida.

http://www.gulfcoastweathercenter.com/brief-update-on-next-weekends-potential-arctic-blast/

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gsytch

I was just seeing that downward forecast when comes your thread.n After a winter with no really cold weather, nice rains, this would be awful. However, they are still struggling with how far south it will go. But it looks darn chilly! Fingers crossed it does not get that col :mrlooney: d here in Tampa Bay.

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_Keith

Weather Channel models are holding us in the upper mid 30s. I sure like that a lot better than that graphics.

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enigma99

Here is a GFS 850 valid for Feb 19th 0z. It's 11 days out but if it holds true, it could get really bad for North Florida. Of course a few days from now it could be revised to just be chilly rather than hard freezes.

GFS_3_2015020800_F264_TMPC_850_MB.png

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Ed in Houston

If the forecast holds the coldest air will pass east of Texas. Good thing to since I have already planted new Cat Chamaedorea palms that are somewhat tender for my area (hardy to 26-27). The map that Kieth posted shows upper 20s in north central Florida and along the central gulf coast. Coldest for the season in parts of Florida?

Ed in Houston

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gsytch

This is swinging down into FL, but our locals are still holding (so far) 40-43F for Tampa Bay area, 32-35F N and E, not the coldest of the season but close. The one night in January saw 35.5F here, with 19F in Pensacola. I have yet to see a forecast showing possible frost/freeze into my area, just upper 30'sF. However, Friday looks COLD with breezes and falling temps. Today is unreal - blue skies, light breezes, already 70F at 11am. I am sure that by Tuesday the models will tweak themselves and show the real dangers, if any. The AO is to turn positive (or is beginning) and should switch the warmth from west to east in the week after this cold shot. :indifferent: Ray called this one...the AO going negative and two weeks later we get it here in FL.

:indifferent:

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Jimbean

My forecasts show me at mid 40's again.

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Zeeth

My forecasts show me at mid 40's again.

Same here. I'm seeing between mid and low 40's Friday night/Saturday morning. February has been cooler than I like so far, so I'm hoping we see some high 70's or low 80's after this front...

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Silas_Sancona

12z run ( 850mb GFS), seems to shift the worst of the cold east. As usual, could be a different story tomorrow, and so forth.. Also not seeing any big change in the forecasted lows for next weekend locally. Crossing my fingers that a suggested warm up around or after the 22nd holds. Ready for a stretch of warm weather instead of just a day or two.

-Nathan


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SubTropicRay

The GFS Ensemble models (not the operational GFS) has lows in Tampa Bay in the low/middle 30's by Valentine's Day. These models can run a bit colder than normal but think Friday's high temp of 55F supports mid/30's at least. I had a feeling we'd be tested again especially with the double dipping AO that occurred around February 1st.

Tampa has not had a February freeze since 1996.

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Palmaceae

They are now forecasting upper 30's by the Weather Channel and lower 40's NOAA, Friday night in Cape Coral, praying for a upward change in that forecast.

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IHB1979

For my area, barrier island, Melbourne, FL:

Wunderground Lows

FRI:39

SAT:42

SUN:45

NOAA Lows

FRI:44

SAT:45

SUN:45

Should be interesting as we're still a ways out from event.

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_Keith

My forecast low keeps dropping. Was 37, the 36, then 34, and now 32. Sure hope it stops right there or it'll be another spring with few blooms.

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SubTropicRay

If there's a bright spot, it's most tropical have hardened off by now. This same event in early/mid December or even early January, would be much more devastating. 30 or 35F now doesn't pack the same punch as it would earlier in the season.

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Jimbean

a lot of plants are blooming around here, even the mangos have been blooming for a while now.

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Moose

My forecast low keeps dropping. Was 37, the 36, then 34, and now 32. Sure hope it stops right there or it'll be another spring with few blooms.

Keeps dropping here too. If the current forecast lows prove to be accurate, it will be the record low of this season.

Ray is correct that at least the plants have hardened somewhat and damage will be negligible. The days are getting longer and with a rapid warming up this should be a non event for most of Florida. That is if it don't drop any further.

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Zeeth

Weather.gov shows my predicted temps a little higher than weather underground. Let's hope that the forecasts don't drop too much. Here's what I'm looking at:

Wunderground lows:

WED: 47

THU: 43

FRI: 40

SAT: 47

SUN: 44

NOAA Lows

WED: 48

THU: 47

FRI: 42

SAT: 47

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SubTropicRay

It's a sucker punch event this time. There will be two blows in 3 days time just as the double dipping AO advertised on Feb 1. Saturday and Monday mornings will be the ones to watch with highs Friday and Sunday in the mid 50'sF. As of right now, the east coast of the state appears closer to the trough and colder. Orlando is predicted to be warmer than Melbourne if the latest 12Z GFS run holds true. The numbers will bounce all around in the coming days so take what you see today or tomorrow with a grain of salt. By Thursday, we'll know what's going to happen over weekend.

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Moose

Wow - just went to the weather underground to compare temps to NOAA. Just to play it safe I'm gonna bring in about 8 plants. They would survive but they are small and I don't want to retard their growth any, especially all are slow as it is.

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Dakotafl

Really is no way of knowing how this will turn out, of course, mid thirties or so isn't horrible to begin with, that said though, I hope its windy.

We will see if it goes that low.....says 34 on Friday morning for me, which seems like a stretch to me, I was surprised when I looked up the forecast.

Edited by Dakotafl

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Alicehunter2000

30, 38, 30, 34 is the latest here....but it has been varying widely every few hours.....my gut tells me that this one might go east of me....good for Louisiana and Texas but not so good for most of peninsular Florida.

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_Keith

I am still hanging at 32 degrees, but would sure welcome that jumping up 2 or 3 degrees.

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gsytch

My local weather people are now talking this one up, and sending the temps down. MOst already have the north and east areas at or below freezing for a few hours. I am beginning to get worried about the non-palms...perennials and such. Not that it will kill them, but they were just waking up and now POW! I believe Monday morning is now looking the coldest with reinforcing cold air. My only hope is some wind staying up off the Gulf. That will keep me a few degrees warmer. MOst have Tampa at around 35F or so now. It appears four real cold days in a row...I am hoping it warms up after that. I have a quick trip to California the following weekend and sure do not want to worry about heating the greenhouse. :rant:

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_Keith

We are now down to 31. Crap. Spring blooms gonna take a big hit, along with some early awakeners.

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Silas_Sancona

18Z run now shifting coldest 850 temps just off the FL east coast sunday and Monday. 32F (0c) line stays north of the area (for now) Bet the suggested low of 38-40F here for Monday morning rises a couple degrees when ii check AccuW. in the morning.

-Nathan

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Jimbean

My forecast has trended down to 40F. This one looks like it is going to test the low for the season.

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SubTropicRay

The GFS obviously hasn't either come around to realizing how old it's going to be or knows something the European model doesn't. In any case, here are Saturday and Monday morning lows as of this morning's latest GFS model run. Most forecasts are for airport locations.

Saturday and Monday morning lows:

Brooksville 30 - 30

Daytona beach 34 - 32

Fort Myers 41 - 40

Jacksonville 29 -27

Key West 56 -57

Melbourne 32 - 39

Miami 43 - 55

Naples 43 - 46

Orlando 36 - 34

St. Petersburg 48 - 49

Sarasota 39 - 45

Tallahassee 27 - 24

St. Augustine 32 -30

Tampa 41 - 40

Vero Beach 35 - 42

West Palm Beach 39 - 45

Winter Haven 37 - 37

Pensacola 29 - 34

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waykoolplantz

The 42 projected here is tolerable...just.

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IHB1979

Indian Harbour Beach/Satellite Beach trending up:

Wunderground lows:

WED: 48

THU: 45

FRI: 40

SAT: 44

SUN: 38

MON: 51

NOAA Lows

WED: 51

THU: 46

FRI: 41

SAT: 43

SUN: 42

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Jimbean

Mine has been revised down to 42F, 40F.

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Jimbean

This will be an interesting case study for a late season cold event.

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_Keith

Project low now down to 30. Starting to make me hum that old song "slip sliding away"

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Alicehunter2000

Thur - Sun now 27,38,29,33 ..... still bouncing around ,,,,, short duration's below freezing

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PalmatierMeg

Zipcode 33990 predicted lows as of today

Tue: 47

Wed: 45

Thu: 47

Fri: 38

Sat: 49

Sun: 37

Mon: 47

A bit up & down at the weekend

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Palmaceae

The GFS obviously hasn't either come around to realizing how old it's going to be or knows something the European model doesn't. In any case, here are Saturday and Monday morning lows as of this morning's latest GFS model run. Most forecasts are for airport locations.

Saturday and Monday morning lows:

Brooksville 30 - 30

Daytona beach 34 - 32

Fort Myers 41 - 40

Jacksonville 29 -27

Key West 56 -57

Melbourne 32 - 39

Miami 43 - 55

Naples 43 - 46

Orlando 36 - 34

St. Petersburg 48 - 49

Sarasota 39 - 45

Tallahassee 27 - 24

St. Augustine 32 -30

Tampa 41 - 40

Vero Beach 35 - 42

West Palm Beach 39 - 45

Winter Haven 37 - 37

Pensacola 29 - 34

Ray, is there going to be any noticeable wind in this event, to keep away frost?

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IHB1979

Thursday through Monday morning look to be clear in my area, but windy. That wind might end up being a blessing.

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SubTropicRay

On Sunday afternoon, the NWS says there may be gale force winds just offshore Gulfside. Not sure about the Atlantic. There may also be Lake Wind advisories. I don't know if that holds up after the sun goes down this time. If we do freeze, I don't want any wind. If it's only dropping down to 33F, I'd like a small hurricane.

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Jimbean

Mine has been revised down to 42F, 40F.

wow, the models are volatile with this one. My new forecast looks like this 43F and 39F.

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Jimbean

with the volatility I am assuming that it will be a stormy one.

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Alicehunter2000

Not a lot of wind associated with the coldest temps for my area.....that's a good thing...gulf proximity may help me during this event.

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