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SubTropicRay

Eastern US cold wave for late January

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SubTropicRay

From the Climate Prediction Center prognostic discussion (10-14 days out)

"8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 23 - 29 2015

DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THE WEEK-2
FORECAST IS ISSUED WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD
WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH AMERICA,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO ALLOW MORE ARCTIC AIR TO INFLUENCE THE CONUS WITH TIME.
THE 528 DM HEIGHT LINE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MANUAL BLEND FINDS
ITS ORIGIN OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN, A SURE SIGN OF AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD PATTERN.
IN FACT, THE FORECAST PATTERN BEARS MANY SIMILARITIES TO THE EXTREME COLD
PERIODS THAT HAVE OCCASIONALLY IMPACTED PARTS OF THE CONUS OVER THE PAST TWO
WINTERS
."

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SubTropicRay

More from today's discussion. The words Arctic intrusion really suck.

"THE MAJOR FORECAST UNCERTAINTY HINGES ON THE EVOLUTION OF WHAT IS LIKELY TO BE
A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC INTRUSION
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. EARLIER
RUNS OF THE GFS HAD INDICATED ANY ARCTIC AIR WOULD BE DIRECTED TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES, WHILE THE LATEST TWO RUNS (06Z AND 12Z) HAVE AIMED THIS OUTBREAK AT THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
EARLIER MAY BE A BIT BETTER, THOUGH THE SOLUTION WILL LIKELY BE FOUND IN THE
MIDDLE. IN SPITE OF SOME CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE FROM YESTERDAY, THE OUTLOOKS
ARE LARGELY UNCHANGED, SAVE FOR SOME DECREASE IN PROBABILITIES IN THE
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK EXHIBITS A SUBTLE SOUTHEASTWARD
SHIFT FROM YESTERDAY, CONSISTENT WITH SHORT WAVE PROGRESSION THROUGH THE LONG
WAVE PATTERN."

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Zeeth

What kind of temps will we see with this arctic air blast? I've been planting a lot this winter, so I'm hoping not to see anything like 2010.

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Palmaceae

As of now Accuweather is not showing any cold for our part of Florida in the long range forecast through February. Lets pray that holds true.

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palmsOrl

Yeah, I always check the long range forecast this time of year from sites like Accuweather, and I noticed that while temps will stay on the cool side overall (windows open, loving it), nothing to indicate really cold weather through at least the end of January (in the forecasts for the Orlando area at least). Lowest forecast through early February is 46F. This is subject to change of course, but I think it is a good sign. Also, last winter brought some wicked cold for as far south as the FL Panhandle, while we didn't even get a freeze in Orlando.

I am grateful for this considering I have landscaped my new place as if I live in Coral Gables :greenthumb: Let's hope the luck holds out for a few years.

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gsytch

I have also seen this possible intrusion scenario. Our local forecasters hinted at it a few days ago with uncertainty. The pattern this winter , with ana ctive jet stream out of Mexico acfross FL, has blunted cold air north except for that one cold front that swept through last week, and it was swept outta here by the following evening.

We have had unusually gray skies this winter, a definite lack of sunshine, but it has also helped keep us from freezing. A trade off. But, it has been overcast a lot. Six weeks left until meteorological spring, which then we are safe. FINGERS CROSSED!

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Alicehunter2000

Got them crossed up here for sure. My yard saw a frosty 25 in November. Then a cold windy 21 a couple of weeks ago. Got some stuff that got burned but will probably survive if we can make it to spring. Definitely don't want a repeat of last year.

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Silas_Sancona

Possible, but I just don't see it.. North of here, (Midwest/Nor. east.. maybe Gulf Coast) might see another arctic blast or some degree of cold again. Active southern branch of the jet stream, and a current NAO forecast looking to stay mostly positive don't suggest any real cold getting down here, let alone lingering for an extended period. If you look back to how low both the AO and NAO got during the 2010 event, was a very different set up if i remember correctly.

Me thinks there are a lot of " we want cold weather " weather guys in the media who jump all over "possible" forecasts just to raise people's blood pressure.. and have something to talk about. Local weather guys seem prone to this type of hype. Twice since the start of the year i have heard " look out, serious cold coming" just to eat their words. ( one morning of 43F isn't cold, imo )

Even so, anything is possible over the next few weeks.. Window of opportunity is closing fast though.

As for Accuweather, currently no signs of frosty cold in their extended here either, and that goes through March 1st. We'll see.

W.U. models a day ago were already "hinting" at some sort of disturbance in the E- Pac. off Mexico.. weird, but then again, Stormsurf.com's Pacific forecast suggesting S.O.I. values topping 2.0 late in the summer in the Jan. 15 update ..an interesting year ahead??, Perhaps... For now, just have some sheets ready, just in case.

-Nathan

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Zeeth

Accuweather is now showing a predicted low of 39 F on Jan 31st. Guess we had to get the 30's sometime this winter...

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Dakotafl

The 31st is a long time though..It's likely to change, and hopefully not for the worse, I don't think it will though.

It has definitely been cloudy this winter for sure.

Edited by Dakotafl

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gsytch

Accuweather is now showing a predicted low of 39 F on Jan 31st. Guess we had to get the 30's sometime this winter...

Here in West Pasco, we've hit the 30'sF on many occasions, perhaps 6 or 7, the lowest being 35F from the last, windy cold front. We are hopeful to get through unscathed this winter, too. The models show this cold dipping quickly, like the last. :yay:

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Palmaceae

Looks like Accuweather has updated their forecast for the better, so no cold coming our way at least in SW Florida.

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SubTropicRay

The January 18th AO forecast shows a pretty sharp negative tilt here in the next week. Don't be surprised if we get the coldest weather of the season even if it's not earth shattering. Accuweather's long term forecast is junk past 3 or 4 days. It changes daily and flip flops about as much as a "good" politician.

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Sandy Loam

In any case, the forecast pasted by Ray says that the next arctic blast is directed at the western 2/3 of the United States. This does not include Florida. Did I misread it?

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SubTropicRay

In any case, the forecast pasted by Ray says that the next arctic blast is directed at the western 2/3 of the United States. This does not include Florida. Did I misread it?

Yeah but it also says the more reliable European model (ECMWF) basically thinks that's crap. The only thing these models forecast with certainty is that it's going to get cold. The weekend CPC doesn't put out a discussion so let's see what they say later today.

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tank

I've posted this site before but here is the 15 day GFS 850MB temperature model animated. Sometimes the animation gets stuck and you have to hit the "FWD" button again to start it.

From my understanding the actual ground temps can vary from these by 5 degrees and sometimes more dependent on other weather factors.

Tonight, the 850MB temp model is showing around 45F for my low while weather.com is forecasting 39F. The 15 day low from the 850MB temp model is about 35F for Gainesville and this is what weather.com is forecasting as well for Jan 26 and 27th. Obviously this can change as we get closer but it is an interesting exercise.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2015011906&field=850mb+Virtual+Temperature&hour=Animation

Here is the home page for the various models.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Also, the temp model is in degrees Kelvin, so you will probably want to convert it to F or C ....

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tank

I like weather.com and weather underground forecasts for my area as they tend to be the most accurate. Accuweather is usually the least accurate for at my house.

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Palmaceae

Tank, that's a cool map, although it is hard to tell the difference in the colors through my aging eyes :lol2:

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tank

Tank, that's a cool map, although it is hard to tell the difference in the colors through my aging eyes :lol2:

Ha! Same for me. I usually find the last yellow hue and then count up into the blues (hopefully not too far into the blues)

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SubTropicRay

Doesn't sound great and the CPC's 6-10 day map shows Florida in a darker shade of blue. Hopefully, it's nothing to be concerned about.

".....WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, AND LOW-LEVEL
WINDS FORECAST TO TRANSPORT COLD AIR DIRECTLY FROM CENTRAL CANADA, BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN THE EASTERN U.S. A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HIGHLY FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, ESPECIALLY OVER CALIFORNIA ......."

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905palms

My area is always in the Blue's. Blue Monday, its expected I guess... Palms are all tucked in and fast asleep.

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Jimbean

I never thought I would see somebody from Canada on here.

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Mandrew968

I don't anticipate any cold weather this year. There have been a few days were we have been able to open the windows, and we might have a couple more of those(low 60's), but nothing dangerous.

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Alicehunter2000

Rest of the month appears ok up here......we really need a break ....still reeling from last year. Dreaming of the day when the big S. causiarum has a nice full green crown.

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gsytch

All the local forecasts now have us getting chilly, but not real cold. Ive seen nothing to be concerned about, even in the north areas which are usually bone chilling in their morning temps. It needs paying attention to, but 40'sF and highs around 60F are just a chilly winter day, nothing much. Fingers keeping crossed! :yay:

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Funkthulhu

40's and 50's for the next ten days, Wooo!

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SubTropicRay

50's in Omaha....in January?? Heatwave.

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smithgn

This thread scared me when I first came across it a few days ago, but after looking at the forecast for my area, it looks like there will be 2 (possibly 3, since I'm in a cold spot) nights under freezing in late January with the lowest being 25. Nothing to scoff at, but still, I'll take this over what I ad a little earlier in the month. From here on out, I hope there aren't any surprises and it winds up being a pedestrian type of winter. I HOPE...

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gsytch

It appears the storm will strengthen off the Atl Coast which always brings in colder air, so the forecasts are creeping downwards once again. I am seeing widespread 30's and lower now (inland N and E) wiht the potential for widespread frost. Although early, it is a classic setup which does bring us the colder weather. I am keeping an eye on it just so we are not surprised! :mrlooney:

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Moose

It appears the storm will strengthen off the Atl Coast which always brings in colder air, so the forecasts are creeping downwards once again. I am seeing widespread 30's and lower now (inland N and E) wiht the potential for widespread frost. Although early, it is a classic setup which does bring us the colder weather. I am keeping an eye on it just so we are not surprised! :mrlooney:

post-1729-0-43692000-1421884898.jpgpost-1729-0-71863300-1421884912_thumb.jp

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_Keith

I don't see anything for late January, but I have a 33 degree projected low for Saturday morning. I am more than ready to be done with this.

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Alicehunter2000

Debating whether to even bother putting plastic over the spear pulled dd's to keep them dry....don't know if they can even come back from a spear pull.

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_Keith

Debating whether to even bother putting plastic over the spear pulled dd's to keep them dry....don't know if they can even come back from a spear pull.

David, you may reach the point I did after the 2010 freeze. That is, life is too short to run around protecting plants, they make it or they don't.

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Jimbean

I am only looking at 43F low for Tuesday according to weather underground.

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enigma99

Debating whether to even bother putting plastic over the spear pulled dd's to keep them dry....don't know if they can even come back from a spear pull.

Get some hydrogen peroxide in there asap.

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Silas_Sancona

Still not seeing anything all that bad for next week atm.. suggested cold blast around the 3rd of next month seems to be backing off as well.. We'll see what happens. 80F today and likely tomorrow. Love it.

-Nathan

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SubTropicRay

Let's hope the modifying forecast continues. Nothing lower than 45F is expected here in the NWS extended forecast.

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Palmaceae

Looking good for Cape Coral also, upper 40's for lows next week.

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Moose

The projected lows do seem to be rising however this is supposedly a one / two front, one front following another immediately. The forecast overnight lows are going to be 5 consecutive nights below the norm. If there was a sudden downward correction of say 5-7 degrees F over that period, It may be a concern.

Constant vigilance :interesting:

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