the Stock market..........

[trioderob]

good luck with that

[trioderob]

oil down another 5 1/2 % today passing Kims number on the way down

how low will it go ??????????????????????????????????????????

[Dypsisdean]

I took a bite at a position today - reasoning that prices should be higher a year from now. We'll see if I can stand any short term pain.

Has any one else taken the dive?

[trioderob]

Dean-

I see that you like to trade against the trend.

let me ask you this- if gas was in a powerful rally would you be a buyer ????

[Dypsisdean]

What the heck does a "powerful rally" mean? Does that mean it is up 50% from the lows, 100%, 200%??? Over weeks, months, or years???

But no, if gas doubled in a uncharacteristically quick time frame to multi-year or all time highs, I would tend more toward being a seller.

And if the price of oil is cut more than half in an uncharacteristically quick time frame to multi-year lows, I would tend more toward being a buyer.

But I have already told you I am a contrarian, so that should be no surprise.

I see that the futures are preparing for another down day. I'm planning on at least a relief rally with some short covering in here somewhere, but it doesn't look like it is going to be easy figuring out when.

[trioderob]

Dean-

all I meant was why trade against the trend ?

even Salmon would not swim up stream if they did not have to - why not trade in harmony to the market ?

[Moose]

Dean-

all I meant was why trade against the trend ?

even Salmon would not swim up stream if they did not have to - why not trade in harmony to the market ?

no accounting for antifragile functional redundancy

[trioderob]

oil is down again.................clunk

that's why you don't try to front run the bottom

"it doesn't look like its going to be easy"

Edited January 13, 2015 by trioderob

[Dypsisdean]

oil is down again.................clunk

that's why you don't try to front run the bottom

"it doesn't look like its going to be easy"

Thanks for the advice - but don't look now - WTI was up for the day.

That's why if nothing is ever ventured, there is nothing ever to be gained.

[ellidro]

I took a bite at a position today - reasoning that prices should be higher a year from now. We'll see if I can stand any short term pain.

Has any one else taken the dive?

Dean how the heck are you! Its been a while since we've talked. Go figure one of my first posts on palm talk in a long time would be in the sub forum about oil. I took the plunge with USO at $20 as share and have a limit order for the same amount of shares as my first purchase at $17 a share. As you know it almost hit the $17 point today but had a small rally toward the end of the day. Placing the limit order was an attempt to keep me disciplined but it sure is tempting to just buy it at $17 and change. I'm sticking to my guns though and will leave the order as is. Hopefully it hits that $17 number and bounces right back after. Wouldn't that be nice! Hope all is well in paradise and if this oil thing makes me some money you might see me in Kona again with a Mai Thai in hand.

[trioderob]

what chart shows oil up for the day ?

I sure could not find - Dean could you post a link ?

(nothing ventured can also mean nothing lost)

Edited January 13, 2015 by trioderob

[Dypsisdean]

If you never swing the bat, you will never hit the ball, score any runs, or hit the home run. Your score will always stay at zero - unless the pitcher walks everyone - and the stock market will never walk anyone.

Do you realize you have never told us of a trade you have made in real time - why is that?

Todays chart for oil.

[trioderob]

there will be a time for buying oil

now is not that time

http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/%40CL.1/tab/2

[trioderob]

oil crashing into the abyss

"If you never swing the bat, you will never hit the ball,'

[Moose]

If you never swing the bat, you will never hit the ball, score any runs, or hit the home run. Your score will always stay at zero - unless the pitcher walks everyone - and the stock market will never walk anyone.

Do you realize you have never told us of a trade you have made in real time - why is that?

Todays chart for oil.

no accounting for antifragile functional redundancy - or publicly stating how how spot on Kim's number was. Actually made it appear that the number was a failure since the price dropped below and continues to do so. A number is mentioned and if that number is achieved but does not stick - its no good. All from some one who has never committed to a solid measurable prediction. Continual Monday morning quarterback or a aloof undefinable prediction that has no value to any investment decision ...

[trioderob]

Moose-

teach me ANYTHING about the stock market

I am all ears..................

Edited January 15, 2015 by trioderob

[Dypsisdean]

there will be a time for buying oil

now is not that time

oil crashing into the abyss

Then please tell me the moment you put your money where your mouth is.

Volatile and risky to be sure. But still higher than 3-4 days ago.

The 5 Day Chart

[Bags]

I have talked to many people who have recommended buying USO. It looks like it is the popular play during this oil crash, but here are the charts for crude oil and USO. Shouldn't USO do a better job of tracking the price of oil? USO peaked at $130 and hasn't been over $50 since while crude rebounded to $120 after the 08 crash. Like I have said before I have chosen to go with the oil companies with VDE and will be adding more as long as it keeps going down. VDE is probably the conservative play and I don't mind taking on more risk. Anyone have any thoughts on these charts or the best way to invest in oil?

[Dypsisdean]

Aaron - I see and hear what you are saying. But don't know what to tell you. As I see it, there are times when the futures (and sentiment) are out of line with the spot price, and USO reflects that by exagerating the ups and downs at those times.

But over time it looks to have tracked it fairly accurately - at least since 2008 - with the price at that time roughly double what it is today - the same as the commodity itself. But what was happening before and around the all time peak looks crazy, but good if you were long. It almost looks like it has to be an error, but one I have also seen in other charts.

[Moose]

Moose-

teach me ANYTHING about the stock market

I am all ears..................

Buy low - sell high

now PM me your address so I can send you the $1000 invoice for the advice.

And you thought I did not know how to make money from the stock market.

[trioderob]

interesting week in the market - technical's starting to get real bearish

I am on the sideline watching at the moment - flat for the year 2015 (spx 500 is down around 4% for 2015)

[Moose]

oil crashing into the abyss

"If you never swing the bat, you will never hit the ball,'

I thought abyss was downward type movement

Energy

Crude Oil (WTI)47.72+1.47 (+3.18%)13:30

Crude Oil (Brent)49.39+1.12 (+2.32%)13:26

[trioderob]

Moose-

very choppy big up /down moves the last week.

I assume you are very bullish on oil ???

[Dypsisdean]

Dean-

all I meant was why trade against the trend ?

even Salmon would not swim up stream if they did not have to - why not trade in harmony to the market ?

Rob,

What part of the "contrary" in "Contrarian" do you not understand? When everyone is in "harmony to the market," that is often times one of those rare inflection points - in the opposite direction.

Oil finished up 4 1/2% on the day, up for the week - first up week in seven weeks. I could sell my UCO for a 7% profit right now. Not bad for a few days. Instead I have raised my stop loss - so now I have no or very little downside - and an unlimited upside. Way too early to crow, but exactly where I want to be - using "house money" now, and hoping for a big win.

[trioderob]

pure luck on your part- you had no idea what oil was going to do.

you did not see the 50% drawdown over the past 5 months - what makes you think you could pick the rally ?

I also know a guy who bought Tesla and is up 600 % in a year

you can also bet on black and spin the roulette wheel - 49% chance you are a winner

Edited January 16, 2015 by trioderob

[Moose]

pure luck on your part- you had no idea what oil was going to do.

you did not see the 50% drawdown over the past 5 months - what makes you think you could pick the rally ?

I also know a guy who bought Tesla and is up 600 % in a year

you can also bet on black and spin the roulette wheel - 49% chance you are a winner

Perhaps Dean based it on the 47.50 number. It hovered around it then he decided to make the move. And you were the person that was all negative about that number.

How much Tesla did you buy ?

[Dypsisdean]

pure luck on your part- you had no idea what oil was going to do.

you did not see the 50% drawdown over the past 5 months - what makes you think you could pick the rally ?

I don't get you Rob. Can some people time the market, or is it pure luck for everyone (except you) then???

I never claimed to be able to predict every gyration (day trading). In fact, I have repeatedly emphasized that no one can - including you. I have only said that after trying every kind of trading over the last 45 years, I think I have found something that works for me. And that is looking for extremes in the market, and going contrary - while looking longer term. For me, there have been only two such opportunities in the last two years.

You said the same thing about Apple. And that turned out to be a double in a little over a year. Just luck right??? Time will tell on this one. But all I need it $72 oil by next Jan. and that would be another double. I am well positioned for taking advantage of any upside and protected on the downside - just plain lucky I guess. But the bottom line is that as we sit, I have the possibility of making money on an oil trade, you do not.

If this is not the bottom, I will be stopped out with little or no loss - and I will keep trying - just like I did with Apple. But at least I am taking a swing at the ball - the only way I know how to get a hit.

[trioderob]

oil looks weak

[trioderob]

Dean-

you still in or did your stop get hit ?????

(oil dropped as much as 5% today )

Edited January 20, 2015 by trioderob

[John Case]

investing (and trading, for that matter) is not a competition....

[Dypsisdean]

Dean-

you still in or did your stop get hit ?????

(oil dropped as much as 5% today )

I'll be stopped out at what will be approx. $45/barrel

Heavy volume at the close today.

[Dypsisdean]

investing (and trading, for that matter) is not a competition....

While investing, I was in competition with the 10 yr. Treasury. If I could earn more than the 10 yr. or a long term CD - I felt I was winning.

But I am no longer "investing."

[trioderob]

Dean-

have you considered lowering your stop so you don't get stopped out - why not - if you are going to ride it for years ?

even if it drops some who cares - you will be up big in the long run

Edited January 20, 2015 by trioderob

[Dypsisdean]

Dean-

have you considered lowering your stop so you don't get stopped out - why not - if you are going to ride it for years ?

even if it drops some who cares - you will be up big in the long run

Nope - I limit my loses in case I am wrong. And let the winners run if I found the bottom. You have to vigorously protect your capital (ammunition). Because if you don't, you have nothing left to fight with.

It looks to me as if it is trying to find a bottom here, but if it breaks $45, I'm thinking it will take another leg down, and I'll try again.

[trioderob]

Dean-

what makes you think it is near a bottom ?

what fundamental or technical factors ?

[John Case]

Dean,

Beating the 10 year yield is surviving at best. IMHO

[Dypsisdean]

Dean-

what makes you think it is near a bottom ?

what fundamental or technical factors ?

Let's just say I think it is nearer to a bottom than a top.

Technical:

- 50+% decline with no pause or correction - crying out for a relief rally.

- inflation adjusted price is close to decade lows

- volume on options and ETFs is close to record

- sentiment is gloomy, with people predicting ridiculous lows

Fundamental:

- any pickup in world economy will prompt a quick rebound - and the recent low prices should help economies recover.

- any geopolitical flare up will put upward pressure on price

- some supply will have to be coming off line if price doesn't improve some. And no new supply will be opened up in this enviorment. But this will take some time to have an effect.

- oil is still indispensible

- any comments or change from OPEC would most likely be a positive

I'm just playing probabilities, and using sound money management - no guarantees in this game. Biggest concern I have is the continuing strength of the dollar.

[Dypsisdean]

Dean,

Beating the 10 year yield is surviving at best. IMHO

Surviving beats the alternative.

Reaching for yield in today's environment could kill you and your nest egg.

[trioderob]

Dean-

you still in or did your stop get hit ?????

(oil dropped as much as 5% today )

I'll be stopped out at what will be approx. $45/barrel

Heavy volume at the close today.

oil going into the abyss - I predict Dean gets "stopped out"

[Dypsisdean]

oil down another 5 1/2 % today passing Kims number on the way down

how low will it go ??????????????????????????????????????????

oil is down again.................clunk

oil crashing into the abyss

(oil dropped as much as 5% today )

oil going into the abyss - I predict Dean gets "stopped out"

Rob,

Do you realize that is your fifth post in 11 days referring to how poorly oil is doing??? Listening to you, you would think oil was down big time. Check it out - in the last 11 days, since I went long, oil is actually up fractionally - some abyss.

I can't help but get the feeling you would enjoy watching me lose money. Thanks.

If you are so sure I'll be stopped out, then why don't you short oil and make some quick money? Your predictions, without putting any skin in the game, mean nothing. But if oil moves lower, I'm sure we will hear all about them.