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Daryl

Southern Summer 2014-2015

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Pedro 65

TC Marcia is now forecast to go to CAT5 prior to landfall...talk about intensifying quickly! It was only CAT1 this morning.

Daryl

Jeeez, thought I'd paste this to show what a Cat 5 is here in Oz. Pete

Australian name Australian category US* US Saffir-Simpson category scale* NW Pacific Arabian Sea /Bay of Bengal SW Indian Ocean South Pacific (East of 160E) Tropical low - Tropical depression - Tropical depression Depression or severe depression Tropical depression Tropical depression Tropical cyclone 1 Tropical storm - Tropical storm Cyclonic storm Moderate tropical storm Tropical cyclone (Gale) Tropical cyclone 2 Tropical storm - Severe tropical storm Severe cyclonic storm Severe tropical storm Tropical cyclone (Storm) Severe tropical Cyclone 3 Hurricane 1 Typhoon Very severe cyclonic storm Tropical cyclone Tropical cyclone (Hurricane) Severe tropical cyclone 4 Hurricane 2 - 3 Typhoon Very severe cyclonic storm Intense tropical cyclone Tropical cyclone (Hurricane) Severe tropical cyclone 5 Hurricane 4 - 5 Typhoon Super cyclonic storm Very intense tropical cyclone Tropical cyclone (Hurricane)

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Daryl

Pete, here is a more graphical comparison. Basically, the scale used for US Hurricanes is one category higher than the Australian classification, but CAT5 is the highest for both.

The Saffir-Simpson Scale is based on sustained wind speeds, not gusts

post-42-0-79462200-1424340194_thumb.jpg post-42-0-56774200-1424340196_thumb.jpg

The latest BOM warning...

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia at 8:00 pm EST:

Intensity: Category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 195 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 270 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 9 kilometres of 20.6 degrees South 150.4 degrees East, estimated to be 140 kilometres east northeast of Mackay and 280 kilometres north of Yeppoon.

Movement: west southwest at 13 kilometres per hour.

Severe tropical cyclone Marcia, a category 4 cyclone has become slow moving in recent hours. It is expected to turn more southwest during the next few hours and make landfall between Mackay and Gladstone early on Friday. It is forecast to reach category 5 by landfall.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for areas south of Double Island Point and west to the Great Dividing Range.

Hazards:

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of severe tropical cyclone Marcia, with gusts to 295 km/h, is expected to cross the coast between Mackay and Gladstone on Friday morning.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are expected to develop about coastal and island communities between Mackay and Burnett Heads tonight.

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Tyrone

TC Marcia has gone from next to nothing to a monster in no time at all. This is one dangerous cyclone. My thoughts are with everyone in it's path. That's quite a populated part of Queensland too.

We're now entering the period of late season cyclones, which are generally the worst.

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Daryl

The latest track forecast has it going straight over Rockhampton and Yeppoon...hopefully it spends some time over land first, and that will hopefully reduce its intensity prior to it hitting populated areas...it then heads back across the coast just north of Brisbane...hopefully it will not regain any intensity, but the sea surface temps are warm enough for this to happen...who knows with this cyclone!

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steve99

Wind gusts of 208kph were recorded at Middle Percy Island earler today. I know John and Catherine Morris the Island caretakers and I just hope everything OK with them.

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tropicbreeze

Pete, here is a more graphical comparison. Basically, the scale used for US Hurricanes is one category higher than the Australian classification, but CAT5 is the highest for both.

The Saffir-Simpson Scale is based on sustained wind speeds, not gusts

attachicon.gifatc.JPG attachicon.gifss.JPG

Just using those scales side by side is a bit misleading. The Saffir Simpson (SS) system uses 1 minute intervals for measuring wind speed, BOM uses 10 minute intervals and you can't really compare them. All things equal, the figures produced under the SS system could be anything from 12% to 25% higher than figures produced by BOM for the same cyclone. But all things are never equal, the figures are drawn from remote sensing data and are further modified by the forecaster involved to what appears to be a "more accurate" figure by rejecting some data and weighting towards others. Would be easier if every one used the same system, in the ideal world we still don't seem to have managed to produce. But most weather agencies around the world do use the 10 minute calculation.

Marcia is a small system. They have a rapid response to their environment which is why they can intensify so rapidly when conditions are more favourable. Correspondingly, they deteriorate rapidly when conditions become less favourable. So hopefully Marcia will rapidly lose strength now that it's over land (current Mackay radar is showing land through the eye of the cyclone).

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Tyrone

The latest track forecast has it going straight over Rockhampton and Yeppoon...hopefully it spends some time over land first, and that will hopefully reduce its intensity prior to it hitting populated areas...it then heads back across the coast just north of Brisbane...hopefully it will not regain any intensity, but the sea surface temps are warm enough for this to happen...who knows with this cyclone!

The coastline has sort of gotten in the way of it at the moment. Hopefully hitting land will strip it of some energy. If it continues over land it will likely lose intensity fast. But if it takes a shallower SE track and goes back over water this thing could be bad. Looking at the animated satellite images it looks like it wanted to track SE but the bit of land it has hit sort of juts out into the ocean. One things is for sure, there will be a ton of rain south of the system.

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tropicbreeze

Marcia is dissipating faster than Lam, in fact is already weaker than Lam. But unfortunately while still intense it passed over some heavily populated areas. The ridge to the south east should keep it over land for a while. Although, gradient pressure build up between it and the ridge will likely cause a new lot of gales further along the coast.

I'm not getting a lot of rain out of Lam, most of it at the moment is to my north west. Maybe as Lam slips further south it'll improve the falls. Late afternoon and evening is usually the most active time.

There's a possibility Lam might make it out to the Indian Ocean by early to mid next week and reintensify. Possibly somewhere between the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts. Tyrone, later next week you might have a bit of Lam on your plate :)

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Pedro 65

Just checked the falls over the border ( Qld) and see lots of towns have had "over 300mm" in the past 32 hrs, weve had steady rain nothing heavy yet and only 138mm past 32hrs.

Both spillways work well on the dams . :)

Pete

post-5709-0-05899700-1424414761_thumb.jp

post-5709-0-75407500-1424414820_thumb.jp

post-5709-0-84034500-1424414855_thumb.jp

post-5709-0-42232800-1424416506_thumb.jp

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comic097

Been a very crazy day here we were on 100mm at 8am this morning and am currently sitting on 193mm, there saying the real fun will start tomorrow, hope everyone is safe and not too much damage

Paul

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Daryl

You're right Zig, it would be so much easier if there was a global standard that was used...maybe one day!

We have had 160mm here since last night...not too bad and not as much as they forecast...the creek never even broke its banks, although it is pretty full on!

Let's see what we get from the remnants of TC Marcia over the next day or two.

Daryl

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tropicbreeze

The big problem will be as the low moves further south up against the high pressure system there'll be a tightening of the pressure gradient between them causing gales to come onto the coast and heavy rain as indicated in the wind chart below. You can see the extent of the ocean those winds are coming from and the low is going to become a bottle neck.

post-4226-0-14970900-1424427337_thumb.jp

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Tyrone

Daryl, I think you'll get a bit of rain from the tropical low.

Wed- Fri looks promising down here for a bit of rain. All the activity up north will shift west then south.

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comic097

Well the rain has almost gone, still spitting here, but for the 2 days we have received 293mm, already new spears are opening up, its gonna be a great week watching everything grow before your eyes

Paul

Edited by comic097

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Pedro 65

Well the rain has almost gone, still spitting here, but for the 2 days we have received 293mm, already new spears are opening up, its gonna be a great week watching everything grow before your eyes

Paul

192mm all up "so far', threw around plenty of Nitrophoska Blue ( N12 P5 K 14 =te) before the rains arrived for fast action fert :) look fwd to warm sunny days for garden growth and good beach days :) Pete

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Daryl

43mm here today, nowhere near the 100-200mm they forecast...ex TC Marcia had more of an impact on the Sunshine Coast which copped a couple of hundred mm today and there are incredible amounts of water everywhere up there. I think we've all had more than enough rain for the next couple of weeks!

1033mm for the year so far...I just hope we don't get too many prolonged dry spells later in the year...

Yes Pete, some nice sunny beach weather would be good!

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NApalm

About 200mm here. Plenty for a while

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steve99

About 200mm here. Plenty for a while

Since the rain started 2/3 days ago, we've managed 235mm, and with max temps for the next few days expected to be around 30c, humidity will be a killer.

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Pedro 65

43mm here today, nowhere near the 100-200mm they forecast...ex TC Marcia had more of an impact on the Sunshine Coast which copped a couple of hundred mm today and there are incredible amounts of water everywhere up there. I think we've all had more than enough rain for the next couple of weeks!

1033mm for the year so far...I just hope we don't get too many prolonged dry spells later in the year...

Yes Pete, some nice sunny beach weather would be good!

248mm over past 3 days and light rain falling, our tally to date for 2015 is half yours Daryl of 571 mm but "this Summer" has been fantastic for the gardens and "of course" the beach :)

Pete

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Daryl

Still raining here...it was supposed to be better today, but we have had persistent drizzle and showers...strangely not showing up on the radar since they 'fixed' it a couple of weeks ago....maybe the clouds are too low to the ground?

We received 245 mm over the last two days...more than enough to keep the garden happy! Some sun would be good about now! :)

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comic097

Still raining here...it was supposed to be better today, but we have had persistent drizzle and showers...strangely not showing up on the radar since they 'fixed' it a couple of weeks ago....maybe the clouds are too low to the ground?

We received 245 mm over the last two days...more than enough to keep the garden happy! Some sun would be good about now! :)

We'Ve had on and off showers all day to Daryl, the wind has picked up here this arvo, looking forward to getting abit of good sunshine

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Tyrone

We had 16mm of rain today. That sounds like nothing compared to the wet east coast but it's the most we've had in months especially in one day. 5mm fell in around 5 minutes as a powerful thunderstorm moved through a few minutes ago. The grass is going to grow like stupid now. I love the freshness after a thunderstorm. Nothing like it.

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Pip

Tyrone that weather finally reached my garden today. Not sure how much rain fell was enough to make things sticky.

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Tyrone

Tyrone that weather finally reached my garden today. Not sure how much rain fell was enough to make things sticky.

Glad you got some rain Pip. We finally got about 26mm and my lakes visibly came up a bit. I haven't needed to irrigate for the last few days. The ground has lapped it up and the brown patches in the lawn are dissappearing. In fact it needs mowing. I'm now entering the time of year where it feels like I'm always on the lawnmower every weekend.

I averaged 14.4C min and 30.7C max for Feb. Things really started to take off and will continue going for a while yet. I never recorded a 20C min all summer. The highest was 19.8C.

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