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WestCoastGal

CBS Evening News says Polar Vortex heading down Midwest Again

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WestCoastGal

Watching CBS Evening News tonight and really sorry to hear that a Polar Vortex is due to head down the Midwest real soon and into the south. They said they are expecting it to last several days before retreating back into Canada. Hope the heads up allows you to make plans. Yikes it's only early November.

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MattyB

...meanwhile in San Diego...

post-126-0-05407400-1415336148_thumb.jpg

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Alicehunter2000

Not a Polar Vortex. ....but a weather event caused by remnants of super typhoon Nuri ..... Vortex was a different animal

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Alicehunter2000

Hopefully won't reach down this far.

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Funkthulhu

Polar Vortex or not, my lows are still going to drop to the mid-teens next week. Aside from a few light freezes we've been ~70/40 high/low for a while (and up to Monday when the front moves through).

Fun!

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nachocarl

:winkie: Posting San Diego weather on the Polar Vortex thread is almost as mean as Al's general post of Kona's weather

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Silas_Sancona

Saw the same Accuweather headline Monday. W. underground model ( GFS 850mb) runs all week sweep the worst of the cold east before it gets a chance to dig down into Florida. Supposed to stay mild with a couple cool-ish nights thrown in here. Same model runs also keep most of California and Arizona mild to warm under the same pattern.

-Nathan-

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Sandy Loam

Does anyone know why these recent, prolonged dips of the polar vortex tend to occur only over a large continent, but not really over oceans? Obviously, it has happened over North American a few times in recent years. It also occurred over central and eastern Europe in early 2012. I know nothing about the polar vortex phenomenon, but I have noticed that the pattern seems to be an extremely low-latitude dip in the jet stream which causes the polar vortex to "get stuck" in a particular spot for a while, but I haven't noticed this pattern occurring anywhere in recent history except over continental land masses. Is there something about oceans that prevent the jet stream from "getting suck" in a low dip pattern over top of them?

Also, there was a study published about a month ago in the journal NATURE about how the western coasts of the world's continents will remain warm (or become warmer) whereas the eastern sides of continents are colder (and may become colder yet). In other words, the west coast of North America is safe in winter, as are countries along coastal western Europe, e.g. France, Portugal, Spain. However, things were not looking good for winters in eastern North American and eastern Asia, e.g. Korea, Japan and China. I don't remember the rationale in that article and I only saw a summary of it, but I seem to recall that it was all part of this same pattern -- it was debunking the myth that Europe is warmed by the Gulf Stream and saying that the Gulf Stream only pulls cold air down from the arctic north of it, such that the warming of Europe may have been a side effect of the Gulf Stream, but was not directly caused by it. Sorry, I'm getting off-track now.

Does anyone know anything about this? What I'm really asking is whether these anticipated future dips in the polar vortex are expected to happen only over large land masses (e.g. North America) or whether they are expected to keep moving around the globe when they occur each winter, such that we don't have to expect this bad winter weather every year from now on in central (or eastern) North American and in central/eastern Europe and in Russia, obviously sparing western-most Europe (e.g. France has had no cold weather for the past two winters) and possibly western North American too.

I don't want to misrepresent that western North America has never had a low-latitude dip in the polar vortex. I note that western North America did experience a low polar vortex dip a couple of winters ago, but the west coast seems to be a less likely and less frequent target unless I am mistaken. Also, in that weather event a couple of years ago, diagrams of the jet stream showed that the western extremity of the polar vortex dip hugged (approximately) the western coastline of US/Canada when it "got stuck" in that pattern, such that --- once again -- the vortex dip wasn't really happening over the ocean at all. Again --- it was over a continental land mass.

Your thoughts and theories are welcome. I just want to hear what our fortune-tellers on PalmTalk have to say about the likelihood that future polar vortex "dips" will get stuck over central North America year after year, like during the period of January- April 2014.

Also feel free to add your thoughts and theories about the blocking effects of the Rocky Mountains in North America and the Ural Mountains in Russia. There are some weather experts who have theories about the effects caused by those mountain ranges as a contributor to the whole phenomenon.

Thanks.

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amazondk

I will be ending my trip to tropical Montana with arrival with arrival of his event here in Great Falls, MT tomorrow evening. On Tuesday morning I will have the pleasure of going to the airport for my flight to Fort Lauderdale at 6 am. Then on Wednesday it will back across the equator to home. And the cold will be just a distant memory.

dk

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Funkthulhu

Does anyone know why these recent, prolonged dips of the polar vortex tend to occur only over a large continent, but not really over oceans? Obviously, it has happened over North American a few times in recent years. It also occurred over central and eastern Europe in early 2012. I know nothing about the polar vortex phenomenon, but I have noticed that the pattern seems to be an extremely low-latitude dip in the jet stream which causes the polar vortex to "get stuck" in a particular spot for a while, but I haven't noticed this pattern occurring anywhere in recent history except over continental land masses. Is there something about oceans that prevent the jet stream from "getting suck" in a low dip pattern over top of them?

Also, there was a study published about a month ago in the journal NATURE about how the western coasts of the world's continents will remain warm (or become warmer) whereas the eastern sides of continents are colder (and may become colder yet). In other words, the west coast of North America is safe in winter, as are countries along coastal western Europe, e.g. France, Portugal, Spain. However, things were not looking good for winters in eastern North American and eastern Asia, e.g. Korea, Japan and China. I don't remember the rationale in that article and I only saw a summary of it, but I seem to recall that it was all part of this same pattern -- it was debunking the myth that Europe is warmed by the Gulf Stream and saying that the Gulf Stream only pulls cold air down from the arctic north of it, such that the warming of Europe may have been a side effect of the Gulf Stream, but was not directly caused by it. Sorry, I'm getting off-track now.

Does anyone know anything about this? What I'm really asking is whether these anticipated future dips in the polar vortex are expected to happen only over large land masses (e.g. North America) or whether they are expected to keep moving around the globe when they occur each winter, such that we don't have to expect this bad winter weather every year from now on in central (or eastern) North American and in central/eastern Europe and in Russia, obviously sparing western-most Europe (e.g. France has had no cold weather for the past two winters) and possibly western North American too.

I don't want to misrepresent that western North America has never had a low-latitude dip in the polar vortex. I note that western North America did experience a low polar vortex dip a couple of winters ago, but the west coast seems to be a less likely and less frequent target unless I am mistaken. Also, in that weather event a couple of years ago, diagrams of the jet stream showed that the western extremity of the polar vortex dip hugged (approximately) the western coastline of US/Canada when it "got stuck" in that pattern, such that --- once again -- the vortex dip wasn't really happening over the ocean at all. Again --- it was over a continental land mass.

Your thoughts and theories are welcome. I just want to hear what our fortune-tellers on PalmTalk have to say about the likelihood that future polar vortex "dips" will get stuck over central North America year after year, like during the period of January- April 2014.

Also feel free to add your thoughts and theories about the blocking effects of the Rocky Mountains in North America and the Ural Mountains in Russia. There are some weather experts who have theories about the effects caused by those mountain ranges as a contributor to the whole phenomenon.

Thanks.

The short, short answer to this question can be thought about in terms of latent heat. Land masses warm quickly in the sun, but the heat that radiates upward is soon spent nightly and the heat isn't really built up and stored over the summer, either. The ocean is a ginormous heat-sink and radiates heat all through the year, even in and during the northern hemisphere winter. That heat radiation upward is enough over a large area to disrupt/deflect the jet stream winds and also to effectively negate any polar vortex before it can move very far south. However, as some of us are about to experience, there are few barriers to a significant dip in the jet stream and an outbreak of arctic air this side (east) of the rocky mountains.

There are many many other factors at work here, but I think this is a good start.

Edited by Funkthulhu

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_Keith

I see temps moving upwards for Louisiana. Perhaps this thing might not dip as far southward as earlier predicted.

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Palmaceae

What is the difference between the polar vortex and the siberian express that was used many years ago as a term? I just remember in the 80s they used the term "Siberian Express".

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_Keith

What is the difference between the polar vortex and the siberian express that was used many years ago as a term? I just remember in the 80s they used the term "Siberian Express".

So, this is a pure guess, but I am thinking the Polar Vortex is more of a cyclical event likely to happen multiple times each winter, vs the Siberian Express is more of a one time thing. I'll be curious to see how close I am.

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amazondk

What ever it was I saw it come through right on time yesterday. It was around 40 f when I went to th supermarket around 5 pm. It was raining a bit then . By the time I went home it had started to snow. When I got home it had dropped to 23 f. And this morning was around 10 f. Today a little more snow and An over night low below zero. But then it is Montana.

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_Keith

What ever it was I saw it come through right on time yesterday. It was around 40 f when I went to th supermarket around 5 pm. It was raining a bit then . By the time I went home it had started to snow. When I got home it had dropped to 23 f. And this morning was around 10 f. Today a little more snow and An over night low below zero. But then it is Montana.

Please do your best to keep it up there Don. Forecast here are waffling again, WX channel says 34 and locals say 39. That's a big gap for sure.

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Xerarch

Great, now every time we get a significant cold event it's going to get called a "polar vortex". The occurrence of a polar vortex isn't anything new, it's just that for whatever reason the term caught on last year on the news casts. It's makes it sound all catastrophic every time the jet stream pushes artic air to lower latitudes.

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_Keith

Well, the locals have adjusted and are now saying 33 for Friday morning. Well, that changes everything. And my greenhouse is still sitting in the box.

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amazondk

Vortex or not it sure is cold out. Well 10 degrees F is not all that cold for northern latitudes. But, I forgot to put gloves on when I went out to buy some stuff and while transferring the goods from the car to the house I thought my hands were going to freeze. It is soo much fun driving on ice covered streets with a brisk wind from the north blowing in under a constant snow. Nothing radical for Montana, Tomorrow I get the pleasure of watching the vortex as I cross the country - Great Falls - Denver - Newark - Fort Lauderdale. There is no easy way to come and go from here anymore. Then on Wednesday evening back across the equator to the beginning of the Amazonian winter (the wet season has returned). As I step out of the airport into the 70 ish F humid night the Sams Club parking lot will be just a distant memory,

dk

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amazondk

What ever it was I saw it come through right on time yesterday. It was around 40 f when I went to th supermarket around 5 pm. It was raining a bit then . By the time I went home it had started to snow. When I got home it had dropped to 23 f. And this morning was around 10 f. Today a little more snow and An over night low below zero. But then it is Montana.

Please do your best to keep it up there Don. Forecast here are waffling again, WX channel says 34 and locals say 39. That's a big gap for sure.

Keith I was just looking at accuweather and their graphics point straight down your way. It is an ugly picture. Wednesday is when the freeze really hits hear, minus 15 F. At least I will be long gone by then.

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_Keith

What ever it was I saw it come through right on time yesterday. It was around 40 f when I went to th supermarket around 5 pm. It was raining a bit then . By the time I went home it had started to snow. When I got home it had dropped to 23 f. And this morning was around 10 f. Today a little more snow and An over night low below zero. But then it is Montana.

Please do your best to keep it up there Don. Forecast here are waffling again, WX channel says 34 and locals say 39. That's a big gap for sure.

Keith I was just looking at accuweather and their graphics point straight down your way. It is an ugly picture. Wednesday is when the freeze really hits hear, minus 15 F. At least I will be long gone by then.

Lows forecast are now down to 32. 45 to 60 days early for such weather. Not a good sign for the winter to come. We'll see. Fortunately 2010 cured me of my zone pushing days. Hey, I got a a new fire pit, lol.

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Xenon

Forecast for 36F tomorrow and 31F Thursday +/- 3-4 degrees depending on source, looks like Houston and south Houston will escape the freeze though...first freeze is usually early-mid December :( bye bye bittermelons and winged beans

Edited by Xenon

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Funkthulhu

Great, now every time we get a significant cold event it's going to get called a "polar vortex". The occurrence of a polar vortex isn't anything new, it's just that for whatever reason the term caught on last year on the news casts. It's makes it sound all catastrophic every time the jet stream pushes artic air to lower latitudes.

Actually, I hope the term sticks and gets used correctly when this sort of thing happens. With the parked Highs and destabilization of the jet-stream, we'll be seeing a lot more incursion by the polar vortex into the continental states in the coming years.

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Moose

Well, the locals have adjusted and are now saying 33 for Friday morning. Well, that changes everything. And my greenhouse is still sitting in the box.

Get on it then man.

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Alicehunter2000

Hi 30's predicted here for the end of this week....however 28-30 predicted for next Tues. night...........dagumit! I'm going to be hunting in South Carolina....I best prepare everything so the wife can flip a switch on the pool planting areas.....dang...this sucks!

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_Keith

Hi 30's predicted here for the end of this week....however 28-30 predicted for next Tues. night...........dagumit! I'm going to be hunting in South Carolina....I best prepare everything so the wife can flip a switch on the pool planting areas.....dang...this sucks!

Yep tough years here. Just this decade doesn't end like the 80s.

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displaced_floridian

We're in the middle of the Polar Vortex here in Denver:

TONIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. LOWS 11 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.

THURSDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 16.

Kentias grow here--in the Mall.

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WestCoastGal

CBS Evening News reported that Casper, Wyoming had a record low of -25F. I remember below 0 temps when I lived in Chicago but doubt it ever got that cold. Hope everyone east of the Rockies has their eyes on this weather. This is going to be an expensive cold wave.

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Xenon

37F tonight and 31F tomorrow...latitude doesn't seem to be helping...Dallas 28F, Houston 33F, San Antonio 30F, Kingsville 34F...looks like the coast will escape with low-mid 40s. Brownsville is forecast for 50/37F tomorrow...average for Nov 13 is 80/60F (!)

Edited by Xenon

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SailorBold

Abq got hit too... They were forecasting a low around 34.. but that changed drastically. We are now looking at a low around 20F and 51F for a high.. eeg..

It turned on a dime.

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Tropicdoc

Might snow tonight!!!! I wonder what the record early snow for south Louisiana is.

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Moose

Might snow tonight!!!! I wonder what the record early snow for south Louisiana is.

Hopefully Keith broke out the box with the greenhouse and is busy assembling ... :hmm:

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SailorBold

Yeah.. how is that greenhouse project of his?

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Tropicdoc

If he is, I don't envy him its 40, drizzling, and windy. Nothing worse than stressing over cold protection in the middle of that kind of nasty weather.

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_Keith

Work has been crazy busy. On the road now, get home tonight, and leave again Sunday morning. Greenhouse may not get out of the box for another couple of weeks. And now we got 31 tonight and 28 on Tuesday I think it is. Just can't keep up at the moment. I just may have to let a few things go and regroup later on.

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Tropicdoc

I told you we should have built that permanent greenhouse over Plato's cave! (or whatever its called)

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SailorBold

does that increase the Arrrrrr value?

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Alicehunter2000

Might snow tonight!!!! I wonder what the record early snow for south Louisiana is.

Huh!? ......I better check the weather again

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