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CBS Evening News says Polar Vortex heading down Midwest Again

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_Keith

Yeah, tough start to winter for sure. Monday and Tuesday morning predicted for back to back lows of 28, and of course I will be out of town on business. Pulled a handful of things into the house last night, which I promised my wife I would not do, but as stated earlier I tire of this more and more every year. If this weather trend continues, I got my eyes on my really nice conifers. :winkie:

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gsytch

It has been a very cold start here in Tampa Bay, too. The cold front that came thru on Nov 1st knocked the Gulf to the upper 60's, and since then, afternoons have struggled to get into the 70'sF. The sea breeze has kept us cooled down. It is 45F right now, very cold, and chillier weather anticipated for midweek. Definitely one of the colder November's. I hope this pattern breaks down, because if this was January, it would be brutal. :yay:

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smithgn

Are there years where the jet stream doesn't dip as much and doesn't allow this very cold air from Canada to invade southward? I always like to think (or fantasize) about what it would be like without the "polar vortex" or any of the large cold air masses coming south?

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DoomsDave

Are there years where the jet stream doesn't dip as much and doesn't allow this very cold air from Canada to invade southward? I always like to think (or fantasize) about what it would be like without the "polar vortex" or any of the large cold air masses coming south?

Supposedly, non-polar vortex is normal, i.e., polar weather stays near the poles.

One theory holds that with a lower average temperature, the jet stream stays up north where it belongs, and the cold weather with it, instead of going south and bringing the cold weather. In other words, a possible paradoxical effect of global warming.

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Tropicdoc

I guess if that is the case we have no hope of this pattern ending; only worsening. Will make it tough on a palm gardener for sure. It's just disgusting. Almost enough to make someone relocate.

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smithgn

Are there years where the jet stream doesn't dip as much and doesn't allow this very cold air from Canada to invade southward? I always like to think (or fantasize) about what it would be like without the "polar vortex" or any of the large cold air masses coming south?

Supposedly, non-polar vortex is normal, i.e., polar weather stays near the poles.

One theory holds that with a lower average temperature, the jet stream stays up north where it belongs, and the cold weather with it, instead of going south and bringing the cold weather. In other words, a possible paradoxical effect of global warming.

::Mind Blown::

As I've been saying, I picked a heckuva year (and last year, too) to start growing palms.

I guess if that is the case we have no hope of this pattern ending; only worsening. Will make it tough on a palm gardener for sure. It's just disgusting. Almost enough to make someone relocate.

It really tees me off. This might sound bad, but once I hear there's another polar vortex/cold air mass coming our way, It instantly puts me in a bad mood. Especially if its fricken November. But hey, the only places to relocate to avoid all this is South Florida or California. Most of us are affected by it.

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redant

No S. FL is not at all immune to these. We plant more tender things so they pretty much suck for us too. Hawaii or the Caribbean might be better choices.

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Jimbean

This feels pretty early in the year. My gut says this is going to be a bad one.

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Tropicdoc

The caribbean sounds like a winner

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_Keith

Finally get home in a couple hours to see any damage. Probably none. Colder tonight. Just sad to see the lushness of summer leave.

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Sandy Loam

The southeastern U.S. will hit record low temperatures tonight. Our record low from 1970 will be far exceeded by several degrees tonight. 25 degrees is expected here in Gainesville, Florida tonight! This is by far a record. The average temperatures for November 18 are 74 (high) and 50 (low).

Meanwhile, down in Miami, the low temperature is expected to drop to 62 tonight. Of course, it is in the 70s in Miami right now. It's amazing what a difference a five-hour drive can make in terms of climate.

Tropidoc, yes, the USDA should probably revisit several climate zones in the southern U.S. because these polar vortex dips (to shockingly low latitudes) are supposed to become a permanent feature each year from now on, according to climatologists. However, the low jet stream dips happening -- and getting "stuck" low -- is supposed to be a phenomenon that starts occurring more often in Asia and Europe also, although some theorists speculate that the west coasts of continents will be spared from this change in our world climate.

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amazondk

It is nice to be a long way from the polar what ever you call it.

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_Keith

It is nice to be a long way from the polar what ever you call it.

I bet you are Don. It is a crazy year already. Three freezes before Thanksgiving is totally unheard of in this part of the country. I am guessing that alone is some kind of record. I just hope it is in like a lion and out like a lamb.

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Tropicdoc

The only problem with the global warming causing the polar air to escape further south is that in the winters of 2011 and 2012 south louisiana was almost zone 10A. Barely froze. Don't guess the global temp was suddenly cooler those years.

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Jimbean

similar weather pattern of the 1980's

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Palmaceae

similar weather pattern of the 1980's

Please don't say that :mrlooney: , I remember those times vividly in St Pete, not pleasant!

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_Keith

similar weather pattern of the 1980's

Not quite, at least not temperature wise. 83 was unbelievably bad and 89 was a total biological push of the reset button. If the 89 ever repeats in my lifetime, I am likely done with gardening. Probably would just let the odd thing that survived and the natives run there course after that.

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_Keith

Oh, and we definitely went into the upper 20s last night, with a super thick killing frost. Bye Bye summertime, hello fire pit.

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Tropicdoc

Beautiful glittering winter wonderland frost this morning. It's amazing how things under a little canopy are fine. Monstera for instance. Those with frosty coating ie myola kings chocolate colored

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Jimbean

I'm just saying that it seems to fit the pattern.

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Tropicdoc

Makes me look forward even more to my new lot with dense low hanging live oak canopy

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Palmaceae

I'm just saying that it seems to fit the pattern.

Yep, just praying we don't repeat that decade anytime soon.

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_Keith

Well, it is past me now. No damage at all, even to 3 month old P dact seedlings left out. Lows back to 43 tonight and into 50s tomorrow night. High of 76 by Sunday. Got to love the Gulf Coast winter temperature roller coaster.

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Tropicdoc

No damage at all? Come on Keith! Don't you have some bananas etc. how are the alfies?

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_Keith

No damage at all? Come on Keith! Don't you have some bananas etc. how are the alfies?

Chad, I don't consider bananas/gingers, etc. damage, they have gone to sleep for the winter and will be fine come spring. Even my big Alocasias that were under canopy are truly undamaged. The ones out in the open melted due to frost damage, but the ones under canopy are fine. Tree fern, under canopy is untouched. Alfies weren't bothered a bit. I doubt it got below 29 here. I don't get worried till we hit mid 20s, then things get a bit more serious.

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Tropicdoc

I read you Keith. I have accepted the disgusting brown carnage of dead gingers, bananas and aroids as a yearly ritual. Good to hear the alfies are in good shape. I'll be putting some in under the new oaks.

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Ed in Houston

I don't think that Houston got hit quite as bad as N. Florida during the latest incursions based on the 24F in Jacksonville. The nothern and western parts of Houston dipped to the low 30s but much of the city was in the mid to upper 30s. I had 36-37 on two nights and that was warmer than predicted. On both of the coolest, nights clouds moved in and slowed the temperature drop, lucky. No frost either. The lushness of the summer will last just a bit longer.

If I remember, one of the cold blasts was due to a Pacific Hurricane pushing north that caused the jet to wiggle down south in the US. If so, maybe we don't have a trend for a colder winter as the Hurricane induced cold incursion was an isolated event.

Ed in Houston

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Tropicdoc

Hope you're right, Ed.

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Jimbean

no, I have a bad feeling...

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_Keith

I read you Keith. I have accepted the disgusting brown carnage of dead gingers, bananas and aroids as a yearly ritual. Good to hear the alfies are in good shape. I'll be putting some in under the new oaks.

You know Chad, you went over the top giving me those alfredii, They are only first year in the ground. Now that you have a new place, if you want to come dig them up, I am fine with that. I'll even help you, provided that I can drink on the job, that is.

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Palmaceae

no, I have a bad feeling...

We need positive thinking! :) This winter will be a warm one, not counting the last week!

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Tropicdoc

No sweat Keith. I have one Alfredii and I am gonna get maybe just one more. They have ridiculously large root systems as far as digging them up. I'm not very optimistic about their durability here but..... Man too close to a cocos to pass up!! We will probably have to settle for butia x parajubaea for a coconut knock-off.

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Sandy Loam

Tropicdoc, you make a good point about the winters of 2011 and 2012 being mild. I don't recall having a low latitude jet stream event those years in the southeast, as far as I can recall. However, I do remember that Europe suffered badly from a low-dipping jet stream event in the winter of 2012. The polar vortex really got "stuck" there for a while that year with unusual cold and snow, with the exception of coastal western Europe.

Perhaps we were spared in North America in 2012 because the main low-latitude swing in the jet stream occurred in Europe instead (?) Likewise, this year and last year Europe has had it quite easy.....extremely mild, in fact. Example: our friends in Tours, France have a couple of big clusters of mature banana trees planted outside. For the past two winters, those banana trees have stayed green without any wilting at all. This is very strange for Tours, France, where one expects the mercury to get as low as -10 celcius in bad years.

So, I am not a climatologist, but it seems that when they're getting the polar vortex dip in Europe, Russia or China, we're probably not getting it over here, and vice versa. But no one can really predict whether the jet stream is going to dip low on that side of the world or on this side of the world. Based on no scientific foundation whatsoever, I simply suspect that if the jet stream wants to dip low somewhere, it is very tempting for it to do so as soon as it gets across a large ocean, which makes our continent very tantalizing if you're a jet stream looking for a place to dip low. ....a giant continent directly east of a huge ocean.

This low "dipping" trend of the jet stream (and polar vortex contained within it) will, in theory, end and become more stabilized around/closer to the north pole if the polar ice caps stop melting and freeze over again, covering the now-exposed oceans of the Arctic region. However, we all know that this ain't happening, so I fear that the current trend with the low-dipping jet stream will just get worse and worse as time goes on and more of the Arctic waters become exposed.

Sorry, I got a bit long-winded on this post. Bottom line -- I agree with JimBean, but my fingers are crossed with Palmacae.

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SailorBold

Maybe we are going to have an early spring..

Nothing is really damaged.. palm wise; so I am not complaining too much. My Satsuma's leaves are crispy..though. and the plant was mostly covered. I thought these would be hardier; the bark and everything is fine so I know it is still alive. It will be a indoor outdoor houseplant when I remove it in spring.

Its too early for me to be done with cold weather..and I just saw 2 of my neighbors stock up with firewood.

Is it spring yet?!?!?

Edited by SailorBold

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Cikas

Tropicdoc, you make a good point about the winters of 2011 and 2012 being mild. I don't recall having a low latitude jet stream event those years in the southeast, as far as I can recall. However, I do remember that Europe suffered badly from a low-dipping jet stream event in the winter of 2012. The polar vortex really got "stuck" there for a while that year with unusual cold and snow, with the exception of coastal western Europe.

Perhaps we were spared in North America in 2012 because the main low-latitude swing in the jet stream occurred in Europe instead (?) Likewise, this year and last year Europe has had it quite easy.....extremely mild, in fact. Example: our friends in Tours, France have a couple of big clusters of mature banana trees planted outside. For the past two winters, those banana trees have stayed green without any wilting at all. This is very strange for Tours, France, where one expects the mercury to get as low as -10 celcius in bad years.

So, I am not a climatologist, but it seems that when they're getting the polar vortex dip in Europe, Russia or China, we're probably not getting it over here, and vice versa. But no one can really predict whether the jet stream is going to dip low on that side of the world or on this side of the world. Based on no scientific foundation whatsoever, I simply suspect that if the jet stream wants to dip low somewhere, it is very tempting for it to do so as soon as it gets across a large ocean, which makes our continent very tantalizing if you're a jet stream looking for a place to dip low. ....a giant continent directly east of a huge ocean.

This low "dipping" trend of the jet stream (and polar vortex contained within it) will, in theory, end and become more stabilized around/closer to the north pole if the polar ice caps stop melting and freeze over again, covering the now-exposed oceans of the Arctic region. However, we all know that this ain't happening, so I fear that the current trend with the low-dipping jet stream will just get worse and worse as time goes on and more of the Arctic waters become exposed.

Sorry, I got a bit long-winded on this post. Bottom line -- I agree with JimBean, but my fingers are crossed with Palmacae.

Winter 2011-2012 was not that bad in whole Europe. I think it was bad only in northern Europe and UK.

Here in Dubrovnik ( Dalmatia/Croatia ) winter was not that bad. Apsolute minimum measured temperature here was -0.8°C ( 30.56 degrees Fahrenheit ) on one day, for one hour during morning ( before dawn ).

Winter 2010-2011 was mild without subzero temperatures.

Winter 2012-2013 was also mild without subzero temperatures.

Last winter 2013-2014 was very mild. Apsolute minimum measured temperature was +2.9°C ( 37.22 degrees Fahrenheit ).

These ''Polar Vortex'' events are very rare in Europe. In fact here in Europe no one uses that term ''Polar Vortex''.

I first heard for that term here on this forum. :)

Edited by Cikas

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Jimbean

The coastal waters around the Southeast are below average right now.

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Tropicdoc

Sounds like 10a winters at 45 degrees north in Croatia. Compared to my 9a at 27 north

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Cikas

Dubrovnik is on 42 degrees north in Dalmatia ( Croatia ). But yes Europe is much warmer than North America on the same latitude.

Warm ocean currents and mediterranean sea are the main reason why. Also mountain ranges in Europe protect southern parts of Europe from most of polar wind/cold breakthrough.

Warm sea currents are very active in mediterranean sea. Adriatic sea is very warm even during winter months. Right now temperature of Adriatic sea near Dubrovnik is still 19°C ( 66.2 degrees Fahrenheit ). Sea radiates warmth during winter months. :)

900px-Adriatic_Sea_Currents_2.svg.png

Northern Europe and UK are very exposed to cold polar winds.

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Halekuma

Tropicdoc, you make a good point about the winters of 2011 and 2012 being mild. I don't recall having a low latitude jet stream event those years in the southeast, as far as I can recall. However, I do remember that Europe suffered badly from a low-dipping jet stream event in the winter of 2012. The polar vortex really got "stuck" there for a while that year with unusual cold and snow, with the exception of coastal western Europe.

Perhaps we were spared in North America in 2012 because the main low-latitude swing in the jet stream occurred in Europe instead (?) Likewise, this year and last year Europe has had it quite easy.....extremely mild, in fact. Example: our friends in Tours, France have a couple of big clusters of mature banana trees planted outside. For the past two winters, those banana trees have stayed green without any wilting at all. This is very strange for Tours, France, where one expects the mercury to get as low as -10 celcius in bad years.

So, I am not a climatologist, but it seems that when they're getting the polar vortex dip in Europe, Russia or China, we're probably not getting it over here, and vice versa. But no one can really predict whether the jet stream is going to dip low on that side of the world or on this side of the world. Based on no scientific foundation whatsoever, I simply suspect that if the jet stream wants to dip low somewhere, it is very tempting for it to do so as soon as it gets across a large ocean, which makes our continent very tantalizing if you're a jet stream looking for a place to dip low. ....a giant continent directly east of a huge ocean.

This low "dipping" trend of the jet stream (and polar vortex contained within it) will, in theory, end and become more stabilized around/closer to the north pole if the polar ice caps stop melting and freeze over again, covering the now-exposed oceans of the Arctic region. However, we all know that this ain't happening, so I fear that the current trend with the low-dipping jet stream will just get worse and worse as time goes on and more of the Arctic waters become exposed.

Sorry, I got a bit long-winded on this post. Bottom line -- I agree with JimBean, but my fingers are crossed with Palmacae.

Winter 2011-2012 was not that bad in whole Europe. I think it was bad only in northern Europe and UK.

Here in Dubrovnik ( Dalmatia/Croatia ) winter was not that bad. Apsolute minimum measured temperature here was -0.8°C ( 30.56 degrees Fahrenheit ) on one day, for one hour during morning ( before dawn ).

Winter 2010-2011 was mild without subzero temperatures.

Winter 2012-2013 was also mild without subzero temperatures.

Last winter 2013-2014 was very mild. Apsolute minimum measured temperature was +2.9°C ( 37.22 degrees Fahrenheit ).

These ''Polar Vortex'' events are very rare in Europe. In fact here in Europe no one uses that term ''Polar Vortex''.

I first heard for that term here on this forum. :)

In spain we call it "Ola de frío polar siberiano" or "Siberian Polar Cold Wave"... One of that "waves" and our 10a zones ( yours and mine) becomes instantly a zone 9a at best...(below -4C). Our last "siberian wave" was in mid 60s and a strong 10a city like Santander saw its all time record low of -4C, 1985 was another "strong wave", warmer in minimum temp but longer in time (it last almost 30 days ¡A MONTH!!!) and places slightly far from the sea saw below zero temps almost every night and max temps below 8C almost all the month). A "siberian wave" or "Polar Vortex" is damaging due to its low temps but also (and I think worse) due to the anormal daily temps during excesive days... In fact, in my place 2001 was a bad year too, I remember TV news said the registered low temps were similar to those of 1985 but thank god it only lasted 13 days and only 2 night below zero.

Edited by Halekuma

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