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Coolin in Cali


happ

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Big Southern Storm Next Week

Paul Yeager - AccuWeather - Wednesday, March 14, 2007

I talked on Tuesday about the likelihood of a significant southward shift of the jet stream next week along the West Coast, and it's possible that there will even be a major storm system in Southern California. Given the lack of rain this season, late-season rain would certainly be a welcome site -- for a couple of different reasons. The most obvious, of course, would the immediate need of water, but it would also help to reduce the threat of fires for a time.

Nearly every year brings the threat of wildfires to Southern California; that's the nature of a climate that has a rainy season that is always followed by a long, hot, and dry summer. The amount of rain during the rainy season affects the timing and severity of the rainy season. If there is longer or wetter rainy season, then the fire season may occur later than during a year with a drier rainy season simply because it will take longer for the vegetation to dry out; however, it's also possible that the fire season will be more severe since the added rain would mean more growth that will become tinder for fire once the heat arrives. In those years, the greatest fire danger might not be until late summer or fall. With a shorter or less impressive rainy season, such as this season, the threat of fires will generally arrive earlier since what vegetation has grown will be tinder dry much sooner. That has certainly been the case this year, when even a March heat wave greatly increased the fire danger.

My point now is that if Southern California receives some rain during the last part of March into early April, it should serve to push the threat of fires back for a while.

The details of the pattern change next week are still too uncertain to say that it will definitely rain in Southern California; however, one of our computer models is indicating that a strong storm will occur in about a week.

Here is a forecast upper-level chart for next Wednesday evening (March 21):

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-bl....month=3

Los Angeles/Pasadena

34° 10' N   118° 18' W

Elevation: 910'/278m

January Average Hi/Lo: 69F/50F

July Average Hi/Lo: 88F/66F

Average Rainfall: 19"/48cm

USDA 11/Sunset 23

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?MTW

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Los Angeles area typically gets more rain than we do, I bet no more rain in San Diego for some time....  :(

Zone 10a at best after 2007 AND 2013, on SW facing hill, 1 1/2 miles from coast in Oceanside, CA. 30-98 degrees, and 45-80deg. about 95% of the time.

"The great workman of nature is time."   ,  "Genius is nothing but a great aptitude for patience."

-George-Louis Leclerc de Buffon-

I do some experiments and learning in my garden with palms so you don't have to experience the pain! Look at my old threads to find various observations and tips!

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With this winter, I wouldn't bet on it Happ. False dreams and illusions. However, it would be nice.  :)

Coastal San Diego, California

Z10b

Dry summer subtropical/Mediterranean

warm summer/mild winter

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Weather.com shows a 30% chance of showers on Tuesday. It would be nice to have that pattern of getting .01-.02" a week again. How long did that last? 3 weeks, 4?

Is their anywhere in the US that gets less rain than San Diego County? Even the Mojave and Sonoran deserts get Summer thunderstorms. My brother in Kansas City commented on how I'm constantly tweaking my irrigation system. His irrigation system is a hose, and he only uses for emergencies.

Zone 9b/10a, Sunset Zone 22

7 miles inland. Elevation 120ft (37m)

Average annual low temp: 30F (-1C)

Average annual rainfall: 8" (20cm)

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(osideterry @ Mar. 15 2007,20:15)

QUOTE
Weather.com shows a 30% chance of showers on Tuesday. It would be nice to have that pattern of getting .01-.02" a week again. How long did that last? 3 weeks, 4?

Is their anywhere in the US that gets less rain than San Diego County? Even the Mojave and Sonoran deserts get Summer thunderstorms. My brother in Kansas City commented on how I'm constantly tweaking my irrigation system. His irrigation system is a hose, and he only uses for emergencies.

And he has tornadoes....and swarming mosquitos...and chiggers...and unbearable humidity...and freezing rain...and icey roads...and the hated KC Chiefs...they do have good BBQ, though.

If global warming means I can grow Cocos Nucifera, then bring it on....

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(STEVE IN SO CAL @ Mar. 15 2007,20:38)

QUOTE

(osideterry @ Mar. 15 2007,20:15)

QUOTE
Weather.com shows a 30% chance of showers on Tuesday. It would be nice to have that pattern of getting .01-.02" a week again. How long did that last? 3 weeks, 4?

Is their anywhere in the US that gets less rain than San Diego County? Even the Mojave and Sonoran deserts get Summer thunderstorms. My brother in Kansas City commented on how I'm constantly tweaking my irrigation system. His irrigation system is a hose, and he only uses for emergencies.

And he has tornadoes....and swarming mosquitos...and chiggers...and unbearable humidity...and freezing rain...and icey roads...and the hated KC Chiefs...they do have good BBQ, though.

Terry

You may be right about San Diego  :laugh: I believe rainfall totals in Palm Springs/El Centro/etc are actually lower than San Diego but not by much.  The summer monsoon is also undependable but when it is active [like last summer] thunderstorms can cross over the mountains into the valleys/coast.  Remember how muggy it was all summer?  :o

Steve  :laugh: Kansas doesn't have much appeal but mighty fine steak  :P

It's pathetic to have less than 3" of rain since July [4.36 at my place] & the rain season is quickly coming to a close.  Looks like the possibility for moisture next week is less than 50% for Southern California.

Here's excerpts from Ken Moore's [AccuWeather meteorologist] report :

"As I stated yesterday, there is going to be a storm move through California Monday through Tuesday, then enter the Southwest on Wednesday. This will likely bring some rain to northern and central California and the chance for a period of rain in the south, mainly from the mountains on west. There is still disagreement as to how much rain occurs, especially in the south. Models do differ on the storms strength, and the strength will directly affect how much rain it can bring. Therefore it is still too early to go out on a limb predicting rainfall amounts. But there are several points to make.

-This looks like a progressive storm, so in any given spot rain is not going to be a prolonged event.

-Because it is looking to be progressive storm, heavy rain amounts do not seem to be the most likely thing to happen anywhere.

-More rain is likely to fall in northern and central areas than in the south.

-After this storm moves through, there may be another protracted period of rain free weather, at least for central and southern California

-Any rainfall for the deserts of Southeast California and southern Arizona is not assured.

I will have more on this tomorrow."

Guess we can't complain about non-stop sunshine & warm temps.

BTW

Recent discussions suggest that La Nina conditions mean an essentially year-long fire season.  But native plant growth is anemic [if not dead] so fires won't have as much fuel & therefore will be less dangerous  ???  Something to hope for.

Los Angeles/Pasadena

34° 10' N   118° 18' W

Elevation: 910'/278m

January Average Hi/Lo: 69F/50F

July Average Hi/Lo: 88F/66F

Average Rainfall: 19"/48cm

USDA 11/Sunset 23

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?MTW

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I thought last summer was AWESOME! It hit 105F in Oceanside and the humidity was nuts. Having grown up in Missouri, it was mix of nostalgia and amazement as I watched my Royal and Foxtails double their normal leaf generation. My bananas went from 5 gallons to 7ft tall in 3 months. I would be thrilled to have a rerun of last summer.

By November we were into Santa Anas, which we haven't been free from for more than 2-3 weeks since.

Zone 9b/10a, Sunset Zone 22

7 miles inland. Elevation 120ft (37m)

Average annual low temp: 30F (-1C)

Average annual rainfall: 8" (20cm)

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Steve, you left out ticks. Lottsa ticks. They go right for the 'nads. It's almost a sport to see who can walk across the front yard and attract the most ticks.

I got him into palms though. He now has 2 needles, several minors, a couple of trachies in the ground, and a washy and a robelini in pots.

I miss the j-hook echo on the local radars, but I don't miss the winters.

Zone 9b/10a, Sunset Zone 22

7 miles inland. Elevation 120ft (37m)

Average annual low temp: 30F (-1C)

Average annual rainfall: 8" (20cm)

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Quite warm inland . . . Quite cool coastline.  60F/15.5c in Santa Moinca & 88F/31c Berverly Hills [a mere 6 miles/9.65km apart].

100+ CLUB

CASA GRANDE AZ:  100

EAST MESA AZ : 102

GILA BEND AZ :  101

IMPERIAL : 100

PALM SPRINGS : 100

INDIO :  101 /

THERMAL :  100

DEATH VALLEY : 102

Cool down next week but rainfall appears remote  :(

LA/NE FOOTHILLS : 82/56

Los Angeles/Pasadena

34° 10' N   118° 18' W

Elevation: 910'/278m

January Average Hi/Lo: 69F/50F

July Average Hi/Lo: 88F/66F

Average Rainfall: 19"/48cm

USDA 11/Sunset 23

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?MTW

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Meteorologist acknowledges inaccurate forecast.  Chance of rain for SoCal under 20%  :(

Storm Monday into Tuesday

Paul Yeager  - ACCU/WX - Friday, March 16, 2007

I've recently talked about the southward shift in the storm track that I expect to take place along the West Coast next week, and the first storm will occur from Monday into Tuesday.

Rain will move into northwestern California on Monday, and the rain will move southward into Central California Monday night. Precipitation amounts will most likely be moderate. At this point, it appears as if rain amounts will be fairly light in Southern California. In other words, it doesn't appear likely that the strong storm I talked about on Wednesday (Big Southern Storm Next Week) will materialize.

After that, it appears that the storm track will again be aimed farther to the north, with storms for the remainder of next week being aimed mainly at the Pacific Northwest.

Don't give up completely on the idea of rain for the south, though, since one of our longer range models again indicates that storms could return to California in about 10 days. Of course, it's too early to think too much about that at this point.

Updated: 3/16/2007 1:47 PM

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-bi....B]

Los Angeles/Pasadena

34° 10' N   118° 18' W

Elevation: 910'/278m

January Average Hi/Lo: 69F/50F

July Average Hi/Lo: 88F/66F

Average Rainfall: 19"/48cm

USDA 11/Sunset 23

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?MTW

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(happ @ Mar. 17 2007,13:11)

QUOTE
Meteorologist acknowledges inaccurate forecast.  Chance of rain for SoCal under 20%  :(

Happ,

He acknowledges an inaccurate forecast or you are acknowledging it for him?

If he is acknowledging an inaccurate forecast it would be a FIRST! :laugh:

Scott

Titusville, FL

1/2 mile from the Indian River

USDA Zone COLD

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As I posted elsewhere, my favorite forecaster puts a VERY slim chance on rain for San Diego for the next SIX months.... :(

Zone 10a at best after 2007 AND 2013, on SW facing hill, 1 1/2 miles from coast in Oceanside, CA. 30-98 degrees, and 45-80deg. about 95% of the time.

"The great workman of nature is time."   ,  "Genius is nothing but a great aptitude for patience."

-George-Louis Leclerc de Buffon-

I do some experiments and learning in my garden with palms so you don't have to experience the pain! Look at my old threads to find various observations and tips!

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(BS, Man about Palms @ Mar. 19 2007,21:12)

QUOTE
As I posted elsewhere, my favorite forecaster puts a VERY slim chance on rain for San Diego for the next SIX months.... :(

I think you & your "forecaster" may be right but it will likely be longer than 6 months [rain season rarely starts before November or even before December  :o    

At least one meteorologist is holding out for some rain even if it is just squeezing moisture from the marine layer  :laugh:

And dig this from NWS-SAN FRANCISCO 3-19-07 1500h

"HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN INTO THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  FEEL

CONFIDENT THAT THIS IS REAL AND NOT MODEL FANTASY. SEVERAL KEY THINGS

WORKING IN FAVOR OF WET WEATHER RETURNING.  FIRST THE TROPICAL

CONVECTIVE FORCING HAS ALREADY STIMULATED THE EAST ASIAN JET TO

EXTEND FURTHER ACROSS THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MEAN RIDGE

THAT HAS SEEMED TO TAKE UP PERMANENT RESIDENCE OVER THE WEST COAST TO

MOVE EAST AND THE MAIN TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OUT NEAR 150W TO MOVE

OVER THE WEST COAST.  THE OTHER FEATURE HELPING TO SUPPORT THIS

PATTERN CHANGE IS THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION THAT HAS BEEN POSITIVE

DURING MOST OF THE DRY PERIODS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS WINTER AND IS

FORECAST TO GO NEGATIVE THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.  THIS HAS BEEN

A CONSISTENT FORECAST BY THE ENSEMBLES FOR SEVERAL DAYS.  SO

HOPEFULLY WE CAN RECOVER A LITTLE FROM THIS VERY DRY WINTER AND MAYBE

DELAY FIRE SEASON UP NORTH HERE FOR ANOTHER MONTH."

This is written for Central Cal but others have noted that plentiful spring time showers can occur even during April in SoCal  ??? Hope . . . hope

Los Angeles/Pasadena

34° 10' N   118° 18' W

Elevation: 910'/278m

January Average Hi/Lo: 69F/50F

July Average Hi/Lo: 88F/66F

Average Rainfall: 19"/48cm

USDA 11/Sunset 23

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?MTW

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Yep- More or less, at best he predicts an occasional drizzle/heavy mist.  (Had one yesterday afternoon at Qualcomm stadium for about a half an hour.)  :(

Zone 10a at best after 2007 AND 2013, on SW facing hill, 1 1/2 miles from coast in Oceanside, CA. 30-98 degrees, and 45-80deg. about 95% of the time.

"The great workman of nature is time."   ,  "Genius is nothing but a great aptitude for patience."

-George-Louis Leclerc de Buffon-

I do some experiments and learning in my garden with palms so you don't have to experience the pain! Look at my old threads to find various observations and tips!

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6 months is a LONG time to forecast ANYTHING...

the "prince of snarkness."

 

still "warning-free."

 

san diego,california,left coast.

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Cloudy & really cool in LA today. Lo 60's [coldest this month] & a mere 0.01 rainfall  :(

Marine air rules  :D  ["June Gloom" early = limited sun & safe minimums] Tabebuia/bauhinia everywhere  :P

LA : 61/54  

Los Angeles/Pasadena

34° 10' N   118° 18' W

Elevation: 910'/278m

January Average Hi/Lo: 69F/50F

July Average Hi/Lo: 88F/66F

Average Rainfall: 19"/48cm

USDA 11/Sunset 23

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?MTW

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(BS, Man about Palms @ Mar. 19 2007,19:18)

QUOTE
Yep- More or less, at best he predicts an occasional drizzle/heavy mist.  (Had one yesterday afternoon at Qualcomm stadium for about a half an hour.)  :(

Not sure if I would call it wrong yet.... (which I guess would be a GOOD thing).  It looks like we amass .10 inches over the next few days.....it will keep the leaves moist... :)

Zone 10a at best after 2007 AND 2013, on SW facing hill, 1 1/2 miles from coast in Oceanside, CA. 30-98 degrees, and 45-80deg. about 95% of the time.

"The great workman of nature is time."   ,  "Genius is nothing but a great aptitude for patience."

-George-Louis Leclerc de Buffon-

I do some experiments and learning in my garden with palms so you don't have to experience the pain! Look at my old threads to find various observations and tips!

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you are now "officially" wrong. :D

the "prince of snarkness."

 

still "warning-free."

 

san diego,california,left coast.

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(pohonkelapa @ Mar. 21 2007,11:27)

QUOTE
you are now "officially" wrong. :D

WAIT!  At least here at my house in my "official" "rain water trashcan accumulator device" I didn't get enough to cover the bottom...  So, still under .10 inches.......

Drizzle, man.  Not wrong   :P

Zone 10a at best after 2007 AND 2013, on SW facing hill, 1 1/2 miles from coast in Oceanside, CA. 30-98 degrees, and 45-80deg. about 95% of the time.

"The great workman of nature is time."   ,  "Genius is nothing but a great aptitude for patience."

-George-Louis Leclerc de Buffon-

I do some experiments and learning in my garden with palms so you don't have to experience the pain! Look at my old threads to find various observations and tips!

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