Jump to content
Kim

Lava watch

Recommended Posts

Justin

What's odd is, aside from anecdotes like Bo's story, you would have no idea the volcano is just over 2 miles away. Everything, on the surface (no pun intended) seems as always, with Pahoa town full of its eclectic mix of folks, business going on as usual, stores busy but not being bought out of water and batteries, nothing too unusual. I have to say, I'm very happy to see all of this, and I hope this "life as usual" is being rewarded with the lava stalling momentarily.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
sur4z

kinda scary

What's erupting? List & map of currently active volcanoes

Europe and Atlantic Ocean: Iceland: Africa and Indian Ocean: Indonesia: Aleutians, Alaska and North America: Central America and Carribean: South America: Other regions:
  • Erebus (Antarctica)
  • Siple (Marie Byrd Land, Western Antarctica)
  • Zavodovski (South Sandwich Islands (UK))
Pacific Ocean:
  • Kilauea (Hawai'i)
  • Bagana (Bougainville Island, Papua New Guinea)
  • Rabaul (Tavurvur) (New Britain, Papua New Guinea)
  • Manam (Papua New Guinea)
  • Yasur (Tanna Island, Vanuatu)
  • Ambrym (Vanuatu)
  • Kavachi (Solomon Islands)
  • Ulawun (New Britain, Papua New Guinea)
  • Ahyi (United States, Mariana Islands)
  • Loihi (United States, Hawaiian Islands)
  • Pagan (Mariana Islands)
  • Langila (New Britain, Papua New Guinea)
  • Karkar (Northeast of New Guinea, Papua New Guinea)
  • Ruapehu (North Island, New Zealand)
  • Tongariro (North Island, New Zealand)
  • White Island (New Zealand)
  • Aoba (Vanuatu)
  • Gaua (Vanuatu)
  • Tinakula (Santa Cruz Islands, Solomon Islands)
Ring of Fire (Kurile Islands to Philippines):
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
tjwalters

Is the threat over? Haven't seen any updates in a while.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
bgl

Tom,

Technically, the threat is never "over", but it has certainly changed. And there's a daily update in the link that Kim posted when she started this thread. The situation this past week is that the front first slowed down considerably and then came to a stop, more or less, with breakouts further upslope. ANY ONE of these breakouts could continue downhill and threaten Pahoa town at some point in time, and could also conceivably cut off the various roads. The front apparently DID move about 20 metres forward between yesterday morning and this morning but it's still about 2.3 km from Apa'a Street, the closest street in Pahoa, and about 3.3 km (2 miles) from Pahoa Village Road (also referred to as Government Road and "Main Street" in Pahoa). What happens next is anyone's guess. It could move downhill at a reduced pace, and if so, would cause devastation a couple of months from now. Or it could move downhill at a faster pace and cause devastation much sooner. Or it could meander aimlessly around up there in the wilderness for months or even years. Or it could stop entirely. Or the active flow could begin to head down towards the Pacific Ocean (i.e. completely different direction) the way it has done for most of the past 31 years and leave Pahoa alone... :) In short - we may not know for a long time what's going to happen. It MAY be in our lifetime, but no guarantees! :bemused:

Bo-Göran

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Cindy Adair

Thanks for the update! I certainly hope nature is kind to everyone in Hawaii.

It still amazes me that I can be sitting in the kitchen before dawn in Florida, visiting a friend I would never have met without the IPS and PalmTalk and reading a post from someone I met in Thailand who lives in Hawaii. It's a small and wonderful world!

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
bgl

Development still of major concern. Even though the flow has slowed down it's still making considerable progress. It's now about 2 km from Apa'a Street, the near street in Pahoa, and aiming more or less straight for the transfer station, and it's about 3 km from Pahoa Village Road. At its current pace (close to 100 metres a day) it could reach Apa'a in about three weeks time and Pahoa Village Road in about a month. And Highway 130 by mid November. Not that there's anything remotely predictable about lava flows... :bemused:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
WestCoastGal

I see that the flow is on the move again toward Pahoa. Had hoped it had stopped.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
John Case

Diana and I have everyone in the area in our prayers! Be safe!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
WestCoastGal

New map as of 10/13 posted. Now less than a mile from the Transfer Station and what looks to be a residental property across from it.

If you go on Google Maps and look up that area, you can zoom in to quite a lot of detail. Turn on the Satellite view. The distance between the Transfer Station and the adjacent property doesn't look all that wide for any flow to pass between them. Interestingly this area managed to just miss being hidden by cloud cover so that part of Cemetary Road is visible. If you refer to the USGS map and flip back to the Google satellite map you can then follow the Google map through the forested area to the area near 130 and the next set of houses. Beyond that it seems the path mostly crosses a number of shade-covered grow structures. The visible detail is pretty amazing. I imagine next week if the flow continues it will be a whole new ballgame crossing I think the first road it encounters.

Bo, how are things coming on the roadwork out there? Haven't watched any videos lately and I haven't seen anything about the flow on our local Ch 2 news which we actually were getting updates every day or so (San Jose has a fairly large islander population here and in San Francisco).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
bgl

The Railroad Avenue emergency road extension was aparently completed a couple of weeks ago. I don't believe it will open for traffic unless Highway 130 is cut off. The lava has been advancing steadily, though fortunately not as fast, and at its current pace it could be another two weeks or so before it reaches Apa'a Street/Cemetery Road. Reportedly the residence right across from the transfer station has been vacated. And then if the lava were to continue at more or less the same pace it would reach Pahoa Village Road after two more weeks or so. In other words mid-November. BUT, lava flows are notoriously unpredictable... :mrlooney: And Highway 130 would be threatened at some point during the latter part of November.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
WestCoastGal

Thanks for your unique "on the ground" perspective and updates Bo. I'm glad the lava flow is slow and giving people a chance to react with some thought.

So now I hear Ana is headed your way and will encounter the Big Island in maybe 3 days and Maui a few days further out. You guys must feel like you have a bull's eye painted on your area of the Pacific. Hopefully the last blast took out most of the weaker trees and this one won't be that bad or as strong when it comes inland.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
bgl

The flow front slowed considerably over the past week and actually stalled as of yesterday morning, but with numerous breakouts further upslope. This is actually quite typical. It's easy to think of the flow, all the way from Pu'u O'o, the point of the eruption, to the flow front as a river of water, inevitably moving ahead, day by day, and heading further downslope. This is however a very halting comparison. While both water and lava consistently will seek lower levels, a river of lava, as opposed to water, will actually create its own obstacles. Lava hardens up pretty quickly - as in within minutes. If the hardened crust is fairly thin, the power and volume of the lava heading downhill will easily break through, moving the flow further and further away from the point of eruption. However, the further away from the eruption that the flow front has moved, the more of an "effort" it takes to push ahead at the front and it becomes much easier to create breakouts further upslope. This is what we're seeing now, with numerous breakouts along the flow, thus widening the flow considerably. This could continue for a long time. Or the flow could stop tomorrow. If it keeps going it can certainly continue to move beyond where the front of the flow is now, about 1.3 km upslope from Apa'a Street, so the danger is by no means over. All it means is that we could easily be in for a long time of uncertainty, but no immediate danger of losing services (power, internet, etc.) or roads being cut off. The photo illustrates well how breakouts occur - pushing through where there's least resistance.

post-22-0-92075600-1413647390_thumb.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Jerry@TreeZoo

An interesting time to live on Hawaii. Snow on the mountain last week. A hurricane passing in a few days. Lava on a daily basis.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
bgl

After a couple of fairly quiet weeks with the front actually having stalled at one point, big changes in the last couple of days. As can be seen from the daily reports, a narrow lobe broke out earlier in the week, upslope from the front and has been advancing FAST. The last couple of days about a quarter mile a DAY! :bemused: As of 7 am this morning (local time), that's 9.5 hours ago, it was about 230 yards from Apa'a Street. At the rate it was moving the last couple of days it could hit Apa'a Street by midnight. The transfer station (a/k/a "the dump") is reportedly closing as of this evening. For now anyway, and Apa'a Street from Pahoa Village Road up to the transfer station (about 1 km in distance) will be closed to traffic. If the flow keeps moving like this it will hit Pahoa Village Road in 2-3 days from now and Highway 130 within the week. Admittedly there have been surprises over the last few weeks so nothing is a given until it actuall happens but as of now everyone is pretty much expecting major changes here... :bemused:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
WestCoastGal

I saw a link on AOL's website that said Fast Moving Lava Flow on Big Island and figured I'd check it out here first. Sometimes their news stories don't actually match the titles. Wow, so guess you guys are suddenly facing all kinds of challenges. Are you and Kim staying put? I remember Kim having some doubts. Justin, how will this affect where you live?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
bgl

Well, I'm certainly staying right here, and I'm sure Kim and Justin are as well, but I'll let them add their viewpoints. There is no danger to properties in (for instance) Leilani Estates, so it's not a question of "having to leave". Personal safety is not in question. Some of the big question marks: power, telephone, internet and other services. Apparently they have worked out solutions for how to supply this area with power once the lavaflow wipes out the main line in Pahoa, which could happen within the next couple of days. There have been less clear answers about telephone and internet, and there are of course a number of different companies that provide internet access and they have different approaches to the threat of the lava cutting off cables etc. We should know more in the near future.

As far as actual access - being able to get in and out of this area, which is actually a fairly large area with probably 10,000 people or so living here, Railroad emergency 2 lane dirt road will open up as soon as Hwy 130 gets cut off. Railroad is a couple of miles closer to the ocean. If the lava keeps moving that road will be cut off as well at some point and then the only access would be Beach Road, which unfortunately is a ONE LANE dirt road along the ocean so that would be a very time consuming option. If the lava keeps moving and cuts off Beach Road as well, then Chain of Craters Road will be the only option. County and Federal are working on Chain of Craters right now, both from the Kalapana side and the HVNP side (Hawaii Volcanoes National Park). If and when we have to take Chain of Craters Road to get to Hilo, the present 20 mile half hour drive (from Leilani Estates) would become a 65-70 mile drive and it would probably take at least 90 minutes. The nine mile stretch over barren lava fields that they are working on now will be a 2 lane dirt road, and there will no doubt be a speed limit at around 20-25 MPH.

On the plus side, it's probably a good time to buy property here! :) And if you're already here, a good time NOT to sell... :mrlooney:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Justin

No real reason to leave. Hell, I could probably rent it even easier now for vacation rentals. (PM me if interested). Yes, it may be much more difficult to access, but the area is big enough and there are enough people in the area that I don't view it as a problem. People who envision a problem are looking at it through the lens of the current infrastructure ("where am I going to get groceries"), not contemplating the entrepreneurship and survival instincts of others ("hey, if I build a big grocery store in Kalapana, just before the speed limit drops, I can get a ton of customers who don't want to drive through the park").

In short, things will undoubtedly change, but they will undoubtedly be fine. Bo is correct about 60 mile drive and 90 minute time, but there are plenty of places on the Big Island (Pahala, Hawi, HOVE, etc.) that have similar remoteness, and they're all fine.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
jdapalms

The folks who have jobs in Hilo are the ones that will be most effected and possibly having to relocate. Several of my neighbors are digging in with satellite Internet, telephone and TV. I know some who have added a generater subpanel switch to run the whole house something I have done myself after the two weeks without electricity from tropical storm Iselle. I will consider some of these of these other options myself. I did hear that the Verizon cell tower will be forced to share with AT&T for cellular service. I have also heard a rumor that they are seeing hot spots (steam) in some of the areas of road construction on the chain of craters road. The worst scenario would be total isolation which I don't think and hope will not happen. Like Bo mentions a good time to buy and a horrible time to sell. I spoke to a real estate agent a few days ago and the market is active with fire sales. I just bought an adjoining acre to my garden prior to all of this happening oh well! Let's hope that this is an isolated flow and more is not to come. It will cool off at some time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
bgl

Yep, as predicted the flow has crossed Apa'a Street. It happened at 3:50 am yesterday morning, just over 24 hours ago. This part of Apa'a Street, a short distance beyond the transfer stationn is actually a part of Apa'a Street that had very little traffic. 98% of the traffic on this street was from Pahoa Village Road up to the transfer station, and that part of the street remains untouched and will probably remain untouched. Even so, and as I indicated in my earlier post, the county has now closed access to the transfer station and there's a barricade about a quarter mile up from Pahoa Village Road. The only structural casualty so far is apparently a shed, but this WILL change over the next couple of days, assuming the flow continues (and there's no reason to assume it won't). At its present pace it will cross Pahoa Village Road in another three days, and before doing so, it's almost bound to destroy some houses. And the (likely) closing of Pahoa Village Road WILL be a major event, and at that point it will only be about half a mile away from Highway 130.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Dave-Vero

Yup, NPR and other media are running stories. The USGS photos from Oct 26 don't look encouraging for Pahoa Village. Over on the tectonically-stable, no-volcano coast, we're past the likelihood of a disastrous hurricane (Miami could make New Orleans or New York look like cheap shots by comparison and Tampa Bay is major flood bait). The eruptions started when I was young and living in Wyoming. It's humbling to see them still going on, all this time later.

I think the youngest eruption site I've visited was Sunset Crater in Arizona, a cinder cone from the European Middle Ages. Crater Lake was considerably earlier. Don't think I got close enough to Mt. Lassen to count.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
bgl

Some pretty significant changes in Pahoa today. Pahoa Village Road, which was open to traffic yesterday, has been barricaded off (probably early this morning) between Apa'a Street and the Post Office corner. HELCO (power) crews were busy just a little while ago when I stopped at the post office, doing what they can to protect the power poles that are in the direct path of the flow, which as of right now is only about a quarter mile away from the road. It could reach and cross the road sometime tomorrow afternoon or evening. The first photo shows Pahoa Village Road yesterday morning at 9 am. Perfectly normal. Second photo shows the barricade and the road (all four photos are taken in the same direction, from the post office and towards Apa'a Street). Third photo: zooming in on the HELCO activity. In this photo it's easy to see how the road dips down right here. That's where the flow will cross. Fourth photo - stepping back a bit. Post office on the right, and hopefully they're going to stay open. It's actually extremely unlikely that the flow would reach this area since this is considerably higher up. The main part of Pahoa town is behind me, and that part is safe, at least for now. If the flow keeps going for a long time (like years), well, could be different... :bemused:

post-22-0-79245800-1414463247_thumb.jpg

post-22-0-80572800-1414463272_thumb.jpg

post-22-0-18438900-1414463298_thumb.jpg

post-22-0-34897700-1414463323_thumb.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Justin

Such a bummer. There's that house on the makai side of the road that has the nice rock walls and all the colorful anthuriums. I wish the best for the homeowner, and all the homeowners in the area. I know, on a macro level, that this is the "best" part of town to cross through, with the least amount of houses and businesses. But on a micro level, this just sucks. :(

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Dypsisdean

How would you like to be sitting on your lanai and see this coming through your back fence. From Pahoa this morning.

post-11-0-76166000-1414554937_thumb.jpg

post-11-0-97270100-1414554940_thumb.jpg

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
bgl

Well, only one thing to do - move to the front lanai! :mrlooney: No lava yet at Pahoa Village Road, but that will probably happen sometime tomorrow. HELCO and the county have apparently finished their work now on the stretch of Pahoa Village Road that will be affected. This is what it looked like half an hour ago. Earth berms protecting the two poles that are in the path of the flow (second photo). In the first photo, Darryl Oliveira, Civil Defense Director (and driving the SUV) leaving after having inspected the work.

(EDIT - as of an hour ago, 5:30 pm local time, the flow was 310 metres upslope from Pahoa Village Road. Will probably cross the road at some point Wednesday afternoon).

post-22-0-03327100-1414556363_thumb.jpg

post-22-0-04522800-1414556388_thumb.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
JasonD

Thinking about all you palm friends in Puna, and about the community of Pahoa that has been so welcoming to me and my family and friends in the past.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Cindy Adair

The photos and video links are amazing. The world is watching and hearing first hand accounts makes it personal. Thinking of you all.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
DALION

I have been watching the news and reading this thread from the beginning. Nature is as beautiful and destructive as anything imaginable. This has been like watching a car wreck in super slow motion. I wish you all the best and hopefully nature does not take back too much of what it gave.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
KPL

Regarding Post #82: What's Erupting:

It's really uncomfortable, taking note of the various volcano activities around the world!

Thanks for posting said information,

KPL

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Kennybenjamin

The photos and video links are amazing. The world is watching and hearing first hand accounts makes it personal. Thinking of you all.

I couldn't have said it better myself.

This has been on our TV news for the last week or so and I am seeing the exact same pics here with more detailed information.

Good luck folks!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Funkthulhu

I always feel conflicted about these sorts of things. A dichotomy of emotion.

On the one hand there is the very human story of people being forced to abandon their homes, watch their gardens slowly burn.

On the other hand, I'm a geologist and this is amazing stuff to watch!

Hope everybody stays safe, take bazillions of pictures and video! (put stuff in the lava and watch it blow up!)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
doubravsky

Just read about the progress of the lava. My thoughts are with all our friends in Puna!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...