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SubTropicRay

La Niña

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gsn

(amazondk @ Mar. 16 2007,16:56)

QUOTE
Boy did La Niña get a long way from ocean temperatures.  Maybe someone should start a thread about the subject of the future of population, climate, food resources, energy resources, and the sustainability of humans on our planet.  

dk

Don,

Oh that is what La Nina and El Nino refers too, OCEAN temps? :;):

I thought it was about children, boys and girls,offspring, from the last 4 or 5 posts! I'm so confused. :laugh:

Or children of POLITICANS from more than 1/2 the posts on the thread?  ???

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Neofolis

I've been harping on about over population being the root of all the problems on the Earth for years, but no-one has ever seemed that interested or taken the idea seriously.  It's good to know that there are some people who have thought about it.

Bo, whilst I accept that birth rate is decreasing in many western civilizations, it is offset slightly by increased life expectancy, something that is far lower in the less developed countries.

Is it actually possible to determine what population level is sustainable long term?  It's quite a difficult question, because the resource issue is offset by technological advances and the rate at which those advances are implemented and become more widely used.  Disease is also an issue, because it spreads more quickly with higher population density and greater ease of travel and is therefore more difficult to contain.  Racial and religious friction is also more prominent with higher population density.

For me the question should not just be, what population level is sustainable, but what population level facilitates the best quality of life for everyone.

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steve 9atx

Jen and Bob

Just to veer a little further off topic: here I am with my wife and another couple of our frends and their daughter at Oceola County Stadium in Kissimmee at Spring Training for my beloved Astros.  All things are cordial, convivial, and genteel.  Everyone says "excuse me" when they need someone to stand for them to take their seats. Everyone has their shirttails tucked in. Children are respectful and well-behaved.  Everyone is sipping reasonable amounts of beer. I find myself sitting next to a players wife and kids chatting about last year's stats.  Drayton McLane, the team owner, is pressing the flesh with the faithful, signing autographs and posing for pictures with fans.  I get a chance to talk to our Hall of Fame broadcaster, Milo Hamilton, through the press box window just above my seat.  I can't believe how "kewl" (Bob's) it is to be this close to the players and how unbelieveably kewl the whole scene is!  This is the respectful scene shared by Astros fans and their National League opponents.

Then the Yankees come to town.

There goes the neighborhood......

They bring with them their loud- (and often foul-) mouthed, under-dressed, over-"blinged" fans with them.  One guy had a gold crucifix, proudly displayed outside his Yankee jersey, that had to be 8" tall with a to-scale Christ figure on it that would make the Pope blush. Apart from this devotion, everything else made it look like we were in the middle of a gangbanger convention.  Where do you even get those baggy shorts that come down to mid-calf but are meant to wear on the hips so that your "NYY" drawers hang out?  Guys trying to start the "wave" (at a baseball game!).  Guys chanting "let's go A-Rod" over and over ad nauseum - even when he's sitting on the bench.  Guys getting so drunk even their compadres can't understand their "tauwlk".  I LITERALLY heard a guy behind me counselling his buddy "if you want an autograph, you gotta knock the little kids out of the way on your way down the aisle first....."  It was like being in some kind of hell surrounded by hundreds of Ratzo Rizzo's......

Wake up,

Wake up.  Astros 4, Yankees 3.

Steve

p.s. Leu Gardens with a cool breeze in the a.m. and the Tabebuia in bloom is also pretty kewl.......

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happ

steve 9atx   :laugh:

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palmblues

(STEVE IN SO CAL @ Mar. 13 2007,20:33)

QUOTE
Bob...

As I said, I was on topic, you weren't...you started the mudslinging, I'm stopping it..now. Go enjoy your palms.

STEVE,

i was simply replying to your right wing propoganda in your previous post ...

 either way, i'm back to holiday ...

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STEVE IN SO CAL

Hi Bob...welcome back

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chris.oz

At at 20/4/2007 is La Nina tipped as being likely by  your gurus  in the US of  A ?

Here our weather/climate people say 50% chance of a La Nina event.

It hasnt rained here for about 4 weeks.

Starting to look like La nina is unlikely.

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ZoneTenNut

(chris.oz @ Apr. 20 2007,09:59)

QUOTE
At at 20/4/2007 is La Nina tipped as being likely by  your gurus  in the US of  A ?

Here our weather/climate people say 50% chance of a La Nina event.

It hasnt rained here for about 4 weeks.

Starting to look like La nina is unlikely.

Chris,

I sure hope it turns out unlikely. Thats the first glimmer of good news I've heard in awhile. For us in FL it means little rain and right now, we're in the midst of one of the worst droughts ever. La Nina could turn this into a disaster.

Roger

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happ

(ZoneTenNut @ Apr. 20 2007,13:40)

QUOTE

(chris.oz @ Apr. 20 2007,09:59)

QUOTE
At at 20/4/2007 is La Nina tipped as being likely by  your gurus  in the US of  A ?

Here our weather/climate people say 50% chance of a La Nina event.

It hasnt rained here for about 4 weeks.

Starting to look like La nina is unlikely.

Chris,

I sure hope it turns out unlikely. Thats the first glimmer of good news I've heard in awhile. For us in FL it means little rain and right now, we're in the midst of one of the worst droughts ever. La Nina could turn this into a disaster.

Roger

La Nina could be a real dilemma in the Southwest since we are already experiencing the driest year in recorded history  :o

Like the Australian  Bureau of Meteorology, the National Weather Service calls for a "weak La Nina" if at all.

Excerpts 4-19-07 - CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER

ATMOSPHERIC INDICATORS DURING THE PAST MONTH WERE CONSISTENT WITH NEUTRAL ENSO CONDITIONS... WITH A TREND TOWARD WEAK LA NINA CONDITIONS . . .  REST OF 2007... . THE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AMONG THE VARIOUS STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS UNDERSCORES CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPCOMING SUMMER AND AUTUMN SEASONS . .  PROGNOSTIC TOOLS FAVORS RELATIVE WARMTH ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS... THE GULF COAST AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST . . SST ANOMALIES WERE CONSIDERED FOR COASTAL CALIFORNIA . .  PRECIPITATION TRENDS APPEAR ONLY IN SCATTERED AREAS AND ARE WEAK.  WET CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED IN COASTAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE LATE SUMMER AND EARLY FALL ... REFLECTING TREND AND/OR THE MULTI-DECADAL CYCLE IN ATLANTIC TROPICAL ACTIVITY... BUT SHOULD NOT BE INTERPRETED AS AN INDICATION OF HURRICANE STRIKE PROBABILITIES . . IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER OR NOT NEXT WINTER WILL BE DOMINATED BY NEUTRAL OR LA NINA CONDITIONS . . THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MJJ 2007 CALLS FOR ELEVATED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S... AS WELL AS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY... THE GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTS . .   BELOW NORMAL SSTS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST ARE EXPECTED TO REDUCE TEMPERATURES ALONG MUCH OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA . . THE OUTLOOKS FOR JJA AND JAS 2007 SHOW AN INCREASE IN RELATIVE WARMTH ACROSS THE EAST COAST STATES

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palmblues

(STEVE IN SO CAL @ Apr. 10 2007,09:32)

QUOTE
Hi Bob...welcome back

oh hi Steve, thanks ... looks like i might be back for a little

while now ... but oops, i'm a very very bad person and just won't

let it go ...  and along that line, your first post on this thread

was mudslinging about Algore so i can't really claim it as my

own ...

okay, i'll be good ....  :P

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palmblues

(happ @ Apr. 21 2007,00:34)

QUOTE

(ZoneTenNut @ Apr. 20 2007,13:40)

QUOTE

(chris.oz @ Apr. 20 2007,09:59)

QUOTE
At at 20/4/2007 is La Nina tipped as being likely by  your gurus  in the US of  A ?

Here our weather/climate people say 50% chance of a La Nina event.

It hasnt rained here for about 4 weeks.

Starting to look like La nina is unlikely.

Chris,

I sure hope it turns out unlikely. Thats the first glimmer of good news I've heard in awhile. For us in FL it means little rain and right now, we're in the midst of one of the worst droughts ever. La Nina could turn this into a disaster.

Roger

La Nina could be a real dilemma in the Southwest since we are already experiencing the driest year in recorded history  :o

Like the Australian  Bureau of Meteorology, the National Weather Service calls for a "weak La Nina" if at all.

was watching one of them science shows about, what else,

the warming trend ... their claim was a warmer earth pushes

the prevalent rains northward into the more temperate zones

and the subtropics become drier ... lets hope its not a trend

but i know these last 10 yrs have not been good, rainwise, to

many parts of florida ... but on a good note, have only had to

mow the lawn once since last august ...

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chris.oz

The Australian BOM says chances of La Nina are still elevated above the 20% long term probability.

They say:

CURRENT STATUS as at 24th April 2007

Next update expected by 9th May 2007 (two weeks after this update).

| Summary | In Brief | Details |

Summary: Conditions currently neutral; La Niña chances remain elevated

Equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures have cooled slightly during April, but remain close to average. The Trade Winds have been generally stronger than normal during recent months, while cloudiness in the western-central Pacific has been close to average for the past month. Overall, these ENSO indicators are neutral. The SOI on the other hand, has dropped below −10 during April thereby raising concerns about continued dry weather in eastern Australia. However, the SOI often shows increased monthly fluctuations at this time of year, so at this stage there is no longer-term significance in the SOI behaviour. There appears to be little chance of a return to El Niño conditions in 2007, with a continuation of neutral, or a switch to La Niña conditions, the more likely outcomes.

A La Niña in 2007?

The chance of a La Niña developing in 2007 is thought to be higher than the long-term average (which is about one in five or 20%) because (a) they have a tendency to follow an El Niño; (B) the 2006/07 El Niño decayed somewhat earlier than normal thereby giving time for a La Niña to begin developing during the critical March to June period; © several of the better computer models are predicting one to occur; and (d) a large pool of cold sub-surface water is persisting in the central to eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

The cold sub-surface water has promoted the development of a narrow tongue of below-average temperatures on the surface of the eastern equatorial Pacific. This may be the first sign of an emerging La Niña, but it will be a few months yet before a clear trend becomes evident. La Niña events are generally associated with wetter than normal conditions across much of the eastern half of the country from about autumn.

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SubTropicRay

Chris,

Our spring has been drier than normal.  This is par for the course when a La Nina is forming.  Fortunately so far, high temperatures have not exacerbated the problem.

Ray

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amazondk

Here in the South American Intertropical Convergence zone I believe there is a clear shift of rain to the northern hemisphere.  It has started raining regularly with a good amount of percipation in the northern hemispher Brazilian state of Roraima. Here in Manaus April has been very wet.  Today was one of the first sunny days we have had in a while.  And, it there still was a period of heavy clouds that looked like rain, but only a small amount of percipitation resulted.  This is not an El Niño pattern.  I am on my way up there by car tomorrow, so I hope it doesn not rain too much. Not only is there 16 kms of dirt road on the way, but my windshield wipers have only two speeds right now, fast and manual.  So, if it is no raining hard I have to turn them on and off manually.  Unfortunately the circuit board fried a couple of circuits and to fix it I can not buy only the circuit board, but have to buy the whole set up, motor and all. Car companies are great.

dk

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NM_PALM_BOY

Hey all,

I am in the firm belief that climatologist are OFTEN incorrect. If we had an El Nino here in So. Cal. last winter, you'd never know it!! You So. Caler's may want to confirm, but I believe we had the driest winter on record. With climate change (by the way, the climate is ALWAYS changing), it's impossible to predict long-term effects. Too many assumptions based on the "science" of climate.

Fact: No matter how much "science" we learn, we will NEVER understand what is going on. There are just too many variables!

Doug

W.LA/Westwood, CA (until Dec.)

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happ

Doug

What you write is partly correct, IMO since the ENSO status has been weak & is currently neutral.  The equitorial Pacific did warm last year though not nearly as pronounced as strong El Nino's.  Last summer Florida/Gulf states did benefit by a non-existent hurricane season, relatively speaking.  But the warming slowed considerably & diminished any chance of a heavy rain year for California & Florida [for winter/spring].

This year's record drought certainly has all the earmarks of a La Nina yet the Pacific ocean temps are mostly normal with pockets of cold water that may signal the start of La Nina.

The discovery of the Southern Oscillation in the equatorial Pacific has been a relatively recent scientific study with many apparent irregularities.  Also global warming likely contributes to model miscalculations.

Let hope a full-force La Nina does not occur since our drought could extend well into 2008 & the Atlantic hurricane season could become quite active  :o

There have been several La Nina events [as well as El Nino's] over the past 25 yrs.  My own observations favor the formation of La Nina, but current ocean temps are warming off the SoCal coast & appear to be slowing down La Nina conditions.  Hope it stays that way.

If the coastal clouds are getting you down, drive over the Sepulveda pass where temps will warm near 90F tomorrow in the San Fernando.

BTW, there are thunderheads forming over the San Gabriel mts today [you may not see them in the haze this afternoon] but rainfall chances are remote  :(

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NM_PALM_BOY
BTW, there are thunderheads forming over the San Gabriel mts today [you may not see them in the haze this afternoon] but rainfall chances are remote  :(

I did notice that...looks strange for this time of year. More like the July/Aug pattern when the desert monsoons attempt to reach the basin. We definitely get the summer T-storms in Abq.

Doug

PS: Ray..how'd you get the Tilde over the "n"? That's a neat trick!

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chris.oz

(NM_PALM_BOY @ Jun. 02 2007,14:38)

QUOTE
Hey all,

I am in the firm belief that climatologist are OFTEN incorrect. If we had an El Nino here in So. Cal. last winter, you'd never know it!! You So. Caler's may want to confirm, but I believe we had the driest winter on record. With climate change (by the way, the climate is ALWAYS changing), it's impossible to predict long-term effects. Too many assumptions based on the "science" of climate.

Fact: No matter how much "science" we learn, we will NEVER understand what is going on. There are just too many variables!

Doug

W.LA/Westwood, CA (until Dec.)

The Oz Met Office say the effects of El Ninos are never the same .  

Seems like the La Nina is definitely on

The is the SOI graph which needs to go positive to give sure indication of La nina,  and all the climate models are predicting it.

soi30.png

However,  it hasnt rained heavily in southern Australia yet,  but it bucketted down all along the east coast as far south as Sydney last week.

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Tyrone

They got 380mm of rain somewhere north of Sydney this weekend. They sure would think La Nina was here. Hopefully we'll get some rain before June - our wettest month :( is out.

regards

Tyrone

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NM_PALM_BOY

Thanks Bren!

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steve 9atx

Bren

This tool is great!  I've always wanted to know how to do this!

Thanks (graçias)

Steve

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junglegalfla

You're welcome!

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SubTropicRay

Cut and paste from Microsoft Word works too.

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