California Freeze Watch 2014

[Mauna Kea Cloudforest]

Oh no, here we go again, I was crossing my fingers I would not be posting this, because as of yesterday, most of the various models runs all showed the cold airmass to move East and bypass California. The outliers showing the arctic airmass heading into California were discarded. However, several of the other models have now switched to this more disastrous solution.

There is a potential for a hard freeze Friday into Saturday night in California. It may not come to pass given the high uncertainty in the models, but better be prepared. See the NWS discussion re-posted below.

Either way, the rest of the week features some definite frosts every Morning until Saturday, and depending on how this weather event unfolds, the Arctic vortex could go out with a bang in California. The whole thing will finally be over by Saturday, but if the worst verifies, it will be the worst possible combo, a hard freeze followed by weeks of rain, perfect for fungal infections. It's only one night, so in this case, it's well worth taking extra precautions because this will be the last of the season.

Note: if this scenario unfolds in California, it will hit Texas and parts of the Southeast as well, and the cold Keith is worried about might just show up.

A VERY COLD UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DROP SOUTH OUT

OF NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA THIS WEEK AND SETTLE INTO THE PAC NW BY

WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHAT THAT COLD TROUGH DOES DURING THE LAST FEW

DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES

LATE IN THE WEEK. THE 00Z ECMWF DROPS THAT TROUGH INTO

NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND SWEEPS A VERY COLD

AIRMASS ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY. IN FACT...THE

00Z ECMWF DROPS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO MINUS 9 DEG C OVER OUR

AREA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z CANADIAN MOVE

THAT COLD TROUGH OFF TO THE EAST BEFORE IT HAS A CHANCE TO DIG

SOUTH INTO CA...THEREBY KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR WELL TO OUR NORTH

AND EAST. THE 06Z GFS IS JUST IN AND IT SHOWS A SOLUTION SIMILAR

TO THE 00Z ECMWF...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS COLD. DEPENDING ON WHICH

SOLUTION VERIFIES...TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT COULD

VARY CONSIDERABLY. IF THE COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION WERE TO

VERIFY...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WOULD ONLY BE IN THE 40S AND WIDESPREAD

FREEZING TEMPERATURES WOULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH MORE MILD

TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT FROM THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z CANADIAN. THE

VERY COLD SOLUTION HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN AN OUTLIER...AND CURRENT

FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MORE MILD SOLUTION. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO

WATCH THIS CLOSELY AS SEVERAL OF THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS

FORECAST A DEEPER TROUGH AND MUCH COLDER TEMPS...SIMILAR TO THE

ECMWF. IF THE COLDER SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY...FREEZE WARNINGS

WOULD BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.

[WestCoastGal]

I saw some of those black-cloud-coming-my-way forecasts last week and decided to heed them just in case. Being more inland we set up our frost cloth on Friday. It rained here the other day and temps have been in low 30s. Humidity has been high, only slight winds, dew point close to or matching temp lows, and this a.m. I saw some fog in our street.

So far the cloths have stayed on although I have to remind myself to check them every day before nighttime. Messed up on that back in December and regretted it. Our C9 strand is still on our little orange "shrub" and looks like that was a good call. Foliage still looking decent but am sure the fruit is a toss. The orange tree looked nice back in December with the multi-colored lights, very Christmas-y but maybe I should have an all white set to use. Think we are the only house with Christmas looking lights still out. Want to put Christmas and winter behind already.

[enigma99]

Last night NOAA had me for 30 for a low but remained at 38 most of the night before briefly dipping to 34. Tonights forecast is 32.

Rest of the week is looking more mild rather than cold. Might hit near 32 on Friday night. After that, temps will really improve

Edited February 4, 2014 by enigma99

[Mauna Kea Cloudforest]

Last night NOAA had me for 30 for a low but remained at 38 most of the night before briefly dipping to 34. Tonights forecast is 32.

Rest of the week is looking more mild rather than cold. Might hit near 32 on Friday night. After that, temps will really improve

I am liking the way the models have been trending, which is milder and milder and wetter as time goes on. There's a pretty large build-up of moisture out West, it's pushing everything to the East. Knock on wood that this trend continues. We need mild and wet, and lots of it to break the drought. It will also help folks in the South as the blocking patterns dissipate and temps moderate from Texas to Florida.

[enigma99]

Yes, Arctic stays cold, we get our rain, we're milder and everyone is happy. Let's hope the reservoirs will be saving any runoff we get from these storms and we'll survive through the summer