Jump to content
_Keith

Big Freeze of 2014 - I just as soon start the thread now

Recommended Posts

Silas_Sancona

Axel, interesting, been referencing the CPC's diagnostic discussion also. Stormsurf as well. Page 27 in the CPC's Feb 3rd discussion raised a few I eyebrows when looking it over. Id add the link but not well versed in how to link pages.

Keith, wonder how a glass dome would handle another Katrina..

-Nathan-

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Mauna Kea Cloudforest

70% of the long term models are rebuilding the entire cold Florida hot dry California late next week. If there's an El Nino it sure isn't Influencing the forecasts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Tropicdoc

I am sick of this winter. Our average Feb low is 47. We are not forecast to go above 45 for the high tomorrow. Good news is that it will be sunny, so it will probably hit the 80s in my greenhouses.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Xerarch

70% of the long term models are rebuilding the entire cold Florida hot dry California late next week. If there's an El Nino it sure isn't Influencing the forecasts.

Ouch, not long ago all the "experts" very predicting that Florida was done with this cold stuff. Weather predicting is really a difficult and non-exact science.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Alicehunter2000

Axels Angels Trumpets....sounds like a fusion band

Been great Rhopy weather here....dense fog and coolish/warmish temps. Perfect Rhopy weather about 6 months out of the year here...makes me wonder if I can grow a Rhopy........ :rant: Doh....forgot about the damn Artic Vortex and the Icicle Freeze of weeks past.

Maybe should start a new topic.....best Cold Hardy Cool Loving Palms

Just build a glass dome over your entire yard. I fantasize abouit that.

You fantasize about building a glass dome over my yard? ......... that's kinda creepy.... :floor:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Silas_Sancona

Read the same thing from NOAA, not convinced in their opinion atm since none of the forecast models I have looked over drive any real cold into the state anytime soon. Yea, it might drop back to the mid/upper 60's for a day or two this month.. maybe hit 47-45F on one or two mornings.. That isn't cold..

Just ran the 12z models (850, MSL,500mb) Still not showing signs of another cold spell.

-Nathan-

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Mauna Kea Cloudforest

70% of the long term models are rebuilding the entire cold Florida hot dry California late next week. If there's an El Nino it sure isn't Influencing the forecasts.

Ouch, not long ago all the "experts" very predicting that Florida was done with this cold stuff. Weather predicting is really a difficult and non-exact science.

Weather is a very non-exact science, so I wouldn't put too much weight on the long term forecast. Just sayin' we "might" not be out of the woods on the drought here and if so, the Southeast isn't done with freezes either. In case anyone questioned why weather is so hard to predict, the equations for fluids are such that if you change even the tiniest of values in the initial conditions you put into the equations, the end results will be wildly different. This is why they say that a butterfly flapping its wings in Texas could cause a hurricane in the Atlantic.

Read the same thing from NOAA, not convinced in their opinion atm since none of the forecast models I have looked over drive any real cold into the state anytime soon. Yea, it might drop back to the mid/upper 60's for a day or two this month.. maybe hit 47-45F on one or two mornings.. That isn't cold..

Just ran the 12z models (850, MSL,500mb) Still not showing signs of another cold spell.

-Nathan-

Nathan, you're too far South to need to care, by mid February I doubt the cold can push down that far with the lower latitude radiational heating. It's North Florida, Louisiana and Texas that are still exposed. Here's what the NWS Monterey Bay is saying:

FINALLY, A BIT TROUBLING THAT THE MODEL TRENDS ARE NOW STARTING TO

REBUILD THE PACIFIC RIDGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE SETUP

WE HAVE HAD MUCH OF THE WINTER -- TROUGH OVER ALASKA, RIDGE IN THE

PACIFIC/WEST COAST, TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND EASTERN CONUS. LONG

RANGE GEFS HIGHLIGHTS THIS TREND WITH OVER 70 PERCENT OF THE

MEMBERS KEEPING OUR AREA GENERALLY DRY LOOKING OUT FOR THE DAY

10-16 PERIOD.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Tropicdoc

Seems like Florida is sheltered this year. I need to move to the sunshine state. I would miss crawfish though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Tropicdoc

I thought my wife had had a stroke when she saw our January electric bill from heating my greenhouses! Supposedly coldest January ever down here as far as averages go.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Mauna Kea Cloudforest

Axel, interesting, been referencing the CPC's diagnostic discussion also. Stormsurf as well. Page 27 in the CPC's Feb 3rd discussion raised a few I eyebrows when looking it over. Id add the link but not well versed in how to link pages.

Keith, wonder how a glass dome would handle another Katrina..

-Nathan-

You know how to cut and paste? Copy the link and just paste it into the text, there's nothing special to do.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
_Keith

So, how cold is it out there this winter. I have a friend in Montana, where they are always prepared for cold. This was her morning post.

"So the water pipes are frozen in my house so I need to run out to all of the hardware stores to get supplies! My car finally turned over. (what a day!)"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
_Keith

More and more things are starting to show damage out in the garden. Amazing how much worse this winter was than the winter of 2010. Just goes to show that ultimate low temp is not always the big factor. Repeated freezes can be much more devastating, even if slightly warmer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Walt

More and more things are starting to show damage out in the garden. Amazing how much worse this winter was than the winter of 2010. Just goes to show that ultimate low temp is not always the big factor. Repeated freezes can be much more devastating, even if slightly warmer.

In 2010, both January and December were very bad months for Florida. In fact, December of 2010 went down as the coldest (average monthly average temperature) in recorded history for Florida and Georgia.

I recorded my lowest all-time temperature in December of 2010 when my low was 20.8 degrees. I had six nights below 30 degrees and three of those were below 25 degrees. All of these lows were from radiational freezes. The upper Keys got down in the mid to upper 30s. The Fruit and Spice park in Homestead, Florida, was devastated.

The duration of cold nighttime and day time temperatures is what killed so many tropicals, rather than just sheer one or two night cold temperatures. Soil temperatures dropped lower than I've ever seen them since I've been tracking soil temperatures for the past 16+ years here.

If you go on Google Map street scene, you can see dead or damaged coconut palms all the way from St. Petersburg, Florida, down to Naples, from Google car photos taken in early 2011. Check it out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Dakotafl

More and more things are starting to show damage out in the garden. Amazing how much worse this winter was than the winter of 2010. Just goes to show that ultimate low temp is not always the big factor. Repeated freezes can be much more devastating, even if slightly warmer.

In 2010, both January and December were very bad months for Florida. In fact, December of 2010 went down as the coldest (average monthly average temperature) in recorded history for Florida and Georgia.

I recorded my lowest all-time temperature in December of 2010 when my low was 20.8 degrees. I had six nights below 30 degrees and three of those were below 25 degrees. All of these lows were from radiational freezes. The upper Keys got down in the mid to upper 30s. The Fruit and Spice park in Homestead, Florida, was devastated.

The duration of cold nighttime and day time temperatures is what killed so many tropicals, rather than just sheer one or two night cold temperatures. Soil temperatures dropped lower than I've ever seen them since I've been tracking soil temperatures for the past 16+ years here.

If you go on Google Map street scene, you can see dead or damaged coconut palms all the way from St. Petersburg, Florida, down to Naples, from Google car photos taken in early 2011. Check it out.

True, things were damaged here that i had never seen damaged before, even Queensland umbrella trees that grow in the woods were badly damaged that winter and the last before that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The7thLegend

Winter 2010 made me rethink zone pushing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
gsytch

Now that February is in full swing, it is apparent we did dodge the bullet. While the low so far has been 34.5F (it was accompanied with nasty wind) I never saw frost in my yard - only a few times in open fields. Heliconia look scraggly, but the middle growth is fine, which means blooms come spring and summer. My Mango is too tall to see if blooms have set fruit. I hope so. No plam damage other than some yellow on Dypsis, and those are outer fronds. No orchid damage on trees. No Bromeliad damage. Just had another inch of rain this past 3 days of GLOOM (as in zero sun). So far today, clear and sunny and 65F at 1030am. We need some sun badly. Gloomy winter so far. :rant:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Alicehunter2000

Weird how coastal panhandle of Florida was spared ultimate lows during that time. We never got below 25 in my yard during those years. The freezes were protracted however. This year was much more devastating...damaging to even large Phoenix palms around here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Jimbean

I got down to a 36F low here it Merritt Island this winter, which is typical for this location. Inland Brevard county ranged any where from 27F in the north, to 33F to 37F in the South, all typical for the area.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
_Keith

The local large palm reseller. I am guessing he will have a tough spring.

post-1207-0-06743700-1391992722_thumb.jp

post-1207-0-86370900-1391992738_thumb.jp

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
_Keith

My God, it's coming again. Another low of 29.

3566_259289780899607_1622833721_n.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Tropicdoc

Keith weatherbug has me only at 36 wednesday night I hope it's right

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Collectorpalms

Went past a Palm Nursery by the Austin, Texas airport today. They had a low of 12F. Their palms looked like Keith's, but they were the more hardy varieties that were toasted.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Tropicdoc

Keith, that palm nursery looks bad. BUT....... in the background I see one of the nicest curved trunks on a queen I've ever seen! Where is that?... Hway 90?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Tropicdoc

And... is that a bizzie in the front all fried up?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
_Keith

It is on Highway 19 at Nee Iberia Yes that alarm Bismarck then is fried. there is also a fried royal palm in that row of tall palms.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Xhoniwaters1

I knew it was going to be a tough winter when we got cold during thanksgiving.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Xhoniwaters1

More and more things are starting to show damage out in the garden. Amazing how much worse this winter was than the winter of 2010. Just goes to show that ultimate low temp is not always the big factor. Repeated freezes can be much more devastating, even if slightly warmer.

In 2010, both January and December were very bad months for Florida. In fact, December of 2010 went down as the coldest (average monthly average temperature) in recorded history for Florida and Georgia.

I recorded my lowest all-time temperature in December of 2010 when my low was 20.8 degrees. I had six nights below 30 degrees and three of those were below 25 degrees. All of these lows were from radiational freezes. The upper Keys got down in the mid to upper 30s. The Fruit and Spice park in Homestead, Florida, was devastated.

The duration of cold nighttime and day time temperatures is what killed so many tropicals, rather than just sheer one or two night cold temperatures. Soil temperatures dropped lower than I've ever seen them since I've been tracking soil temperatures for the past 16+ years here.

If you go on Google Map street scene, you can see dead or damaged coconut palms all the way from St. Petersburg, Florida, down to Naples, from Google car photos taken in early 2011. Check it out.

Walt what would you say was the percentage of dead palms in your yard after that winter?

Did you protect your Royal/Royals?

Edited by Xhoniwaters1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Walt

More and more things are starting to show damage out in the garden. Amazing how much worse this winter was than the winter of 2010. Just goes to show that ultimate low temp is not always the big factor. Repeated freezes can be much more devastating, even if slightly warmer.

In 2010, both January and December were very bad months for Florida. In fact, December of 2010 went down as the coldest (average monthly average temperature) in recorded history for Florida and Georgia.

I recorded my lowest all-time temperature in December of 2010 when my low was 20.8 degrees. I had six nights below 30 degrees and three of those were below 25 degrees. All of these lows were from radiational freezes. The upper Keys got down in the mid to upper 30s. The Fruit and Spice park in Homestead, Florida, was devastated.

The duration of cold nighttime and day time temperatures is what killed so many tropicals, rather than just sheer one or two night cold temperatures. Soil temperatures dropped lower than I've ever seen them since I've been tracking soil temperatures for the past 16+ years here.

If you go on Google Map street scene, you can see dead or damaged coconut palms all the way from St. Petersburg, Florida, down to Naples, from Google car photos taken in early 2011. Check it out.

Walt what would you say was the percentage of dead palms in your yard after that winter?

Did you protect your Royal/Royals?

I can't put a percentage on the palms that were killed, but I lost all (about eight of them) my Veitchia palms (some with 5 feet of trunk); lost 3-4 Archontophoenix cunninghamiana with 4-5 feet of trunk. with some of similar size that were extremely cold damaged. Two of them to this day have not recovered, they are just hanging on. Two other, somewhat larger, have big swellings in their trunks (I would think they would have gotten a constriction) but have returned to normal trunk diameter above the permanent swelling. These two palms suffered from manganese and boron deficiency in the new fronds, which were stunted and bellow pattern shaped.

My mature royal palm was totally fried, as were both of my mature A. alexandrae palms. My mature A. cunninghamiana palms were 90% fried. I lost my oldes majesty palm, also, with 5 feet of trunk; this palm was exposed. I have many other majesty palms that were partially defoliated but otherwise not permanent cold damage. These are planted in sheltered areas.

My large traveler's palm, large white bird of paradise were 100% fried. The list goes on and on with regard to zone 10+ landscape shrubs like ixora, crotons, ti plants, etc. All my hugh P. seloums were fried. Of course, the come roaring back in months.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Xhoniwaters1

Walt thats good info thanks! I assume when you say your mature royal was fried...it came back? That's encouraging considering you had multiple nights in the low twenties.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
_Keith

Weather Channel still saying 29 for Thursday morning, local folks are bit more optimistic. Either way, I see a cold spring ahead.

katc_eight_day.jpg?49157492.098402102014

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Alicehunter2000

Walt, really sorry about your losses this year. Didn't realize you got that cold down in the peninsula this year.

Keith they are not calling for anything below freezing over here....will check again tonight hopefully no more this year we really need a break.

,

I'm bumming out today ... spear pulled on the largest trunk of my A. Wrightii and all the spears pulled on R. excelsa. This winter just keeps on giving......sucks.post-97-0-58522400-1392076223_thumb.jpgpost-97-0-10065500-1392076288_thumb.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
_Keith

This winter just keeps on giving......sucks.

Yep, and the residual damage keeps on appearing. Add my little T. latisectus and now my large A engleri to the list of palms that will have to grow a 100% set of new foliage. Mules, Butias, Rhapis, Sabals, C radicalis and micrspadix still in champion status.

Note - I do have one mystery Sabal that is showing damage. Probably my first clue to narrow down its ID.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Xerarch

Walt, really sorry about your losses this year. Didn't realize you got that cold down in the peninsula this year.

Keith they are not calling for anything below freezing over here....will check again tonight hopefully no more this year we really need a break.

,

I'm bumming out today ... spear pulled on the largest trunk of my A. Wrightii and all the spears pulled on R. excelsa. This winter just keeps on giving......sucks.attachicon.gif20140210_171719.jpgattachicon.gif20140210_171707.jpg

I believe if you read Walt's posts carefully the data he is talking about is actually from 2010.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Jimbean

Now everybody should know that zone 9B does not exist on the northern gulf coast.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Xenon

Now everybody should know that zone 9B does not exist on the northern gulf coast.

Galveston's lowest temp. was 28*F

Edited by Xenon

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
_Keith

Now everybody should know that zone 9B does not exist on the northern gulf coast.

Galveston's lowest temp. was 28*F

There are some very small pockets of 9b, but most is 9a at best. Bear in mind though, that zones are averages and every zone has their freak events. 2010 was anything but ordinary.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Mauna Kea Cloudforest

Walt, really sorry about your losses this year. Didn't realize you got that cold down in the peninsula this year.

Keith they are not calling for anything below freezing over here....will check again tonight hopefully no more this year we really need a break.

,

I'm bumming out today ... spear pulled on the largest trunk of my A. Wrightii and all the spears pulled on R. excelsa. This winter just keeps on giving......sucks.attachicon.gif20140210_171719.jpgattachicon.gif20140210_171707.jpg

David, this really sucks, just after planting all those large palms, the very first year you got hammered.

Maybe you need to go to Cosco and buy peroxide in bulk, I bet all those spear pulls will come back for you with all the heat you will soon get. Spear pull in my climate is a death sentence, I don't even bother, I just remove the palm and start over. But that's because it would take way too long to recover in my heat forsaken climate. At least in the Southeast you're gonna get so much heat that most if not all palms will readily regrow spears if you treat with peroxide early.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Tropicdoc

Word, xenon, I thought about it. I was in galveston for 5 years and it only went below freezing once. There are king palms and royals down there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Jimbean

Now everybody should know that zone 9B does not exist on the northern gulf coast.

Galveston's lowest temp. was 28*F

What is its all time record low?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Jimbean

Now everybody should know that zone 9B does not exist on the northern gulf coast.

Galveston's lowest temp. was 28*F

There are some very small pockets of 9b, but most is 9a at best. Bear in mind though, that zones are averages and every zone has their freak events. 2010 was anything but ordinary.

Just out of curiosity, where would you classify zone 9B in Louisiana? Maybe the southern part of the delta?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...