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SubTropicRay

Potentially cold week for Florida next week

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gsytch

Never made it above 45F today, and with 34F as the low, Brutal cold with wind. Tonight might be worse? It is overcast now, so that could help! :indifferent:

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Walt

After 16+ years living here, advective cold events have always been the least cold damaging (of course, we've had nothing like the Dec. '89 advective cold event).

My low this morning was exactly 40 degrees, taken on the same thermometer in the same spot I recorded my all-time low during the long string of radiational freezes I experienced in December of 2010, when my low was 20.8 degrees F.

My high today was 54 degrees. Tonight's low is forecasted to be 38 degrees (last night they forecasted 33). Since the wind is now coming out of the northeast, I'm hoping at least it doesn't go below freezing. I learned many years ago to be very wary of low temperature forecasts, because I've been thrown a curve more than once.

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SubTropicRay

In the next two weeks, we'll have a positive PNA, negative NAO and AO. This means another freeze or near freezing event will be knocking on the door.

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gsytch

In the next two weeks, we'll have a positive PNA, negative NAO and AO. This means another freeze or near freezing event will be knocking on the door.

Always the bearer of such great news! Seriously, I've seen that. I don't even want to think about it right now. I got sick right in the middle of this week, and still have much to do to get everything back to normal in the yard and GH. ARGH! :violin:

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Mauna Kea Cloudforest

In the next two weeks, we'll have a positive PNA, negative NAO and AO. This means another freeze or near freezing event will be knocking on the door.

Always the bearer of such great news! Seriously, I've seen that. I don't even want to think about it right now. I got sick right in the middle of this week, and still have much to do to get everything back to normal in the yard and GH. ARGH! :violin:

I don't think it's that bad unless you're scared of a few readings into the mid 30's in North Florida. The 00Z Jan 18 GFS shows a moderately amplified pattern with an arctic low brushing South Carolina but not dipping down further. However, as the runs progress day to day, the pattern becomes more amplified, removing rain out of the California forecast and dropping heights over the Southeast. The good news is that the mid South from Texas to Louisiana is not affected so far.

The good news is that the blocking pattern is nudging slowly eastward with each amplification, but at the rate it's going, it won't dissolve until late Winter, which is bad news for California when it comes to rain.

gfs00.38.gif?t=1389287142

Surface Temperatures +7.5 days:

mos_gfs_min_8d.gif

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SubTropicRay

How do you access that map on the Unisys website? Is there a comparable map for the ECMWF?

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Mauna Kea Cloudforest

How do you access that map on the Unisys website? Is there a comparable map for the ECMWF?

ECMWF +6 days 500mb. Seems to have an even more amplified pattern.

ecmwf_500p_6d.gif

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Mauna Kea Cloudforest

Current NOA is not so clear but is forecast to go negative Jan 16-18.

nao.sprd2.gif

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SubTropicRay

The Euro is almost always the colder model. How can I access those maps on the Unisys site?

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Palmə häl′ik

....I was puttin down some fertilizer yesterday afternoon! :) Lettin that slow rain soak it in

- Ray.

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SubTropicRay

thanks

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gsytch

Did you see the rain in Palm Beach today? The town of Hypoluxo, just outside West Palm Beach, recorded 22" of rain! Good gawd. We were 82F with wall to wall sunshine today! After freezing Tuesday barely in the 40's all day? This is getting way too bizarre...... :drool:

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gsytch

This week is going to get pretty darn cold. Forecasting 30's for much of inland Tampa Bay Wed thru Sat nights, and a few days not even 60F. Secondary reinforcements abound. It could be worse, but this up and down stuff is getting old............ :rant:

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The7thLegend

This week is going to get pretty darn cold. Forecasting 30's for much of inland Tampa Bay Wed thru Sat nights, and a few days not even 60F. Secondary reinforcements abound. It could be worse, but this up and down stuff is getting old............ :rant:

I know what you mean. Same here and I thought the 2nd half of January was forecasted to be warm for us. Tired of the nonsense.

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SubTropicRay

The forecast is actually getting warmer for the weekend. How'd that happen?

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Alicehunter2000

Suppose to touch freezing mark along the coast a couple of times this week. Ready for March.

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Moose

60 days & counting. March 15th is the benchmark date, according to Ray.

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SubTropicRay

I know we're in the middle of this latest cold snap but....there's another potential near freeze coming next Wednesday night. Just sayin'.....

Ron, I stop worrying about freezes on Feb 20. There have been 2 freezes here after that date in the last 40 years.

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gsytch

Accuweather has another piece of the Polar Vortex coming down, and this time it looks like a larger piece. It is forecast do dive down deep into the south and Florida. Is this going to be a big push of polar air OR a glance? Hmmm what'cha thinking Ray? :sick:

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Zeeth

We had a light frost where my garden is on the cars. I won't be back until Friday to see what the damage is but I'm hoping it wasn't bad because the low was 37.

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Silas_Sancona

Down to 38F around sunrise but didn't see any frost in the colder spots in the yard or on the car. Does look like another episode of cold for the area next week but noticed a couple 80F highs and more 70s are resurfacing on the Accuweather long range. Atm, 06Z W.U. model is following the 00z run last night and hinting at a possible, albeit gradual, pattern shift. Enough with the roller coaster ride..

-Nathan-

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empireo22

37 this morning looked like frost was on rooftops nothing on the ground or cars.

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Zeeth

What time did you guys check for frost? My dad saw it at 6 this morning.

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spockvr6

My car was wet and the temp was 40F, but I saw some very light and barely visible frost on an open field on Pine Island at 630AM. It was "real" frost though as I got out of the car and felt it!

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_Keith

Accuweather has another piece of the Polar Vortex coming down, and this time it looks like a larger piece. It is forecast do dive down deep into the south and Florida. Is this going to be a big push of polar air OR a glance? Hmmm what'cha thinking Ray? :sick:

Oh, wonderful.

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Silas_Sancona

Keith, (Sarasota) Checked everything around 7am. If there was any around, it had disappeared by then.

-Nathan-

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empireo22

What time did you guys check for frost? My dad saw it at 6 this morning.

7 it was so light in certain spots on the rooftops it was gone by 9.....I checked the grass and palm fronds nothing. lets see how Saturday turns out, calling for 36 Saturday night.

I brought all my coconut sprouts inside and they can stay there for awhile.

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gsytch

I am seeing that when this next round of chill blows thru midweek, there may finally be a break in the pattern. A piece of the western ridge high could float north into Alaska, allowing a zonal pattern to set up across the Cont 48 - Pacific air. This will allow the southern half to stabilize and warm some, while the north stays less cold. Patterns like that also bring rains to California. It should take a good week to see if this does occur, with warming beginning in about 10 days. Right now it is 49.8F but the wind is HOWLING at 25mph. Not nice out at all. Freeze warnings out again for inland Central Florida into Highlands County, with coastal areas anticipating 35-40F. Sunday and Monday should be milder! While it has not been a deep freeze, it has been a longer cold spell. I keep looking ahead to Feb 20th. That is when we usually begin breaking into less cold. :yay:

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SubTropicRay

Beach weather will be here in February. This type of pattern now almost guarantees a warmer than normal Feb.

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gsytch

NOTHING is guaranteed anymore with the weather....BUT let us get the warmth started soon. February features higher sun angles, so if it does warm, it feels warmer. Brrrrrrrrrrrr for now! :yay: :yay:

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Dakotafl

It was 37 yesterday at my house, forecast is 36 by morning, it was still but nothing more than light frost in the lowest spots, no damage to anything more than a lone apple banana plant in the open...

If frost forms tonight, i hope it will be as light as yesterday..

At least it isn't 2010...

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_Keith

Beach weather will be here in February. This type of pattern now almost guarantees a warmer than normal Feb.

Now you're talking. I start cleaning up the garden already. Neatened up the porches. Shocked the pool. I am ready for spring, baby. Now about that forecast for 29 Wednesday morning? Well the heck with it. I am done protecting and all that biz. What makes it to spring along with me can enjoy it just as much as I do. As for everything else, well compost has to come from somewhere.

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Silas_Sancona

Weird how clearing out Brazilian Pepper along the property line helps one forget that it didn't reach 60 today.. On the bright side, a few more 80s showing up in the forecast after another week of cooler weather ahead. At this point, looks like the worst of the cold stays north and east next week. Agree with Ray that a pattern like this is often followed by a nice warm up. Tired of the cold and ready for the beach. Hang in there Keith!!

-Nathan-

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Mauna Kea Cloudforest

Weird how clearing out Brazilian Pepper along the property line helps one forget that it didn't reach 60 today.. On the bright side, a few more 80s showing up in the forecast after another week of cooler weather ahead. At this point, looks like the worst of the cold stays north and east next week. Agree with Ray that a pattern like this is often followed by a nice warm up. Tired of the cold and ready for the beach. Hang in there Keith!!

-Nathan-

Hmmm, let's see, Nathan moved to Florida, and must have taken the California Winter weather with him. :)

On a more serious note, I just looked at the GFS, there are hints of the pattern finally going zonal by about Jan 28th, but the ridge off California is still there, albeit flattened quite a bit. No telling what happens after that, but until then, looks like the pattern stays in place. So hang in there, hopefully your nice Florida weather will be back in February, and we're hoping for some much needed rain out West. I've got several landscape projects I've put off because the soil is just too dry and rock hard to work with it, and the agriculture and the forest needs the rain in a bad way.

Nathan will be laughing at us Northern Californians in a month or two, relishing the warm Florida sun while we will be drenched in rain.

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Trópico

So, predicted low by wunderground is 36F and we're 36.3F and dropping.... at 11:46 PM!

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Silas_Sancona

LOL, Thanks Axel. Yes, I admit it, it followed me here, delayed by a couple weeks of course.. Its gotta go before I get in trouble with the locals, haha.

Have been following the models also and are awaiting the rest of the 00z to come through. Agree that while it stays cold up north, a more zonal component seems to show up further south.

While wavering between leaving the ridge, or some degree of it, in place over the west, seeing more and more consistency in the model runs in possible rainfall to the state as well. Hoping it isn't just a fluke this time. Was looking over the W.U. underground stations the other day and could not believe I was seeing 90F readings on a few stations down towards Morro Bay .. let alone 87 in Monterey.. It has been warmer along the coast than it has been in Palm Springs!! That's absurd! for anytime of year, esp. during the middle of WINTER.

Knowing the area and how sopping wet, and cold the soil usually is this time of year, I can imagine how "cement-like" it must be with the lack of rainfall. Fingers crossed.

-Nathan-

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palmsOrl

It has felt like winter most of the time the last few weeks here, yet we have not even flirted with freezing here. Temp around 40F right now. The palms look okay, but definitely a bit annoyed with the chill. I am not wishing for the hot, it will be here soon enough. It is nice to be having some winter weather to break up the monotony.

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gsytch

Temps completely leveled out. Currently 38.2F. It was 40.0F at 1am when I woke up. I've noticed at FAWN that parts of Highlands county dropped to freezing, while Palm Beach county was close, yet here along the Tampa Bay coast mostly 38-42F. Clear as a bell out. No frost. Anticipatng 66F today, so I can get some yard work done. Yesterday was too damn cold for that. One more shot of cold air this week, and then perhaps the zonal flow takes over by next weekend. Still no freezes or frosts here this year, which is rare. I usually get a few frosts each winter even if it is mild. :)

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Jimbean

Let's see, it's warmer in many locations in Alabama than in Palm Beach County right now at 6:30 in the morning. These appear to be very tight weather systems.

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