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SubTropicRay

Potentially cold week for Florida next week

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SubTropicRay

The European forecast model had been showing temperatures as low as 15F in Atlanta next Wednesday morning. It doesn't sound like a big deal but that type of cold that far south is pretty rare. The GFS model was showing less cold but it has started to agree with the European model. I'm not crying wolf here but keep an eye on the weather Floridians. Either way, at least part of next week will be well below normal.

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George Sparkman

I sure hope there is something that blocks it from coming further south then Atlanta.

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gsytch

The pipeline of cold is coming down to Florida now, even if it turns quickly. With all the polar air ready to unleash, we have got to watch out. Next week looks cold, but not below freezing for anything near Orlando or Tampa, but still cold. The long range does not foresee extended or extensive cold, so perhaps the long range is incorrect? Scary cold up north! It has been so cloudy and dreary here lately but that has kept us from freezing. I'll keep an eye on the cold for the remainder of the month but hopefully, the core of the cold will stay north. :violin:

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SubTropicRay

I wish I shared your optimism. The GFS now has 36F for Tampa Tuesday morning. Some GFS Ensemble numbers are now down as low as 30F. Hopefully , it's just a temporary model flip flop.

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gsytch

I have seen them trending lower. Which website are you looking at? Can you send the link? I'd love to compare. The cold is so entrenched up north, all it will take is one break from the subtropical Jetstream and the cold will plow through us. I never use Tampa as the gauge, not because I am in West Pasco, but because the "tropics of Tampa" weather comes from TIA on the water. I actually use Orlando for a more reliable long range outlook. It will be getting cold nonetheless. Then, it appears like a quick warmup. B)

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spockvr6

Sounds like all forecasts are better than this! While visiting family in Indiana and testing the car out (to gauge if we could drive home) I made it 10 ft out the driveway. Summer tires actually mean summer only :-) I guess we shall wait another day before driving home!

post-200-0-92940600-1388676593_thumb.jpg

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Xhoniwaters1

Some of the predicted forecasts here are looking bad. So cold I don't even want to say it. Highs not even reaching 40 on Tuesday. I guess this finally might be the real test to see if I am actually in a zone 9b location.

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tank

Guess I'll finally have to put the plastic up on the greenhouse frame this weekend. Hasn't got below 37F up here in N. Florida this year, which is unusual.

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SubTropicRay
Mauna Kea Cloudforest

I don't see why you guys in Florida are worried, looks like North Florida panhandle turns into 10a for a couple of days and north Gulf Coast going 9b.

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gsytch

Thanks for the links! Most helpful and interesting.

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gsytch

Ray - None of the sites mention anything to worry about. Friday night will be chilly but a quick warmup, again, for the weekend. Next week looks like two days, lowest near 40F according to most of what I researched, with lower 30's well inland and north, then warming again. The AO is not negative, so the cold will not last. Perhaps it could drop a little more, but nothing looking awful. The chill will help to slow the plants down. I received 1 1/2" of rain since yesterday. I CANNOT WAIT UNTIL LATE FEBRUARY when this will all be over! It has been so cloudy lately. Just awful. I'll take the chill if the sun will come out! :yay:

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Silas_Sancona

^^ Have to agree, after following all the models since last Thursday, not seeing anything too concerning in regards to a cold spell for the immediate area. NAO and PNA both hover right around neutral, with maybe a quick dip or rise into +/- territory. AO doesn't look too bad either (at this point) . I vividly remember the wild swings in all three during the '09-10 freeze when I lived up in Clearwater.

Also welcoming a quick dip or two into the 40s since, thanks to all the sun and 70-80+ degree warmth since arriving here last month, my entire collection thinks it is April, instead of January! I've never seen plants recover from being moved cross country so fast. Even the "slower" stuff is bolting. Will be interesting how everything looks come June or July.

Fyi, for all interested, Stormsurf updated their El Nino update last month.. a long, but interesting read.. if you haven't seen it already..

-Nathan-

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Xerarch

It's going to extremely cold here next week, below zero anyway. Florida better hope that the jet stream doesn't push that far south with this system.

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gsytch

Just saw the local news trending down, anyway. Most are predicting middle 30'sF for Tampa/Cleawater for Tue/Wed. Cold enough for me to worry about the non-woody stuff and me begonias/orchids, but not enough to be ready for a massive protection...just a check into making sure sensitive stuff is protected. However, there is so much cold air bottled up north, who knows? :floor:

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Alicehunter2000

11 pm............supposed to get near freezing tonight but hopefully not quite. Lots of wind, so no frost. Moved the potted Bizzy's into a heated outdoor bathroom since they hate cold roots. Back porch plants moved close to the glass doors and huddled together. Really don't expect it to freeze tonight...just doesn't feel that cold, but preparing for tomorrow night and especially next week. Local guys are calling for upper 20's next week....sure hope that changes. Will be putting Christmas lights on the C. macrocarpa (it is throwing a beautiful red leaf just in time for the cold :( ) and the D. cabadae in the pool area this weekend to be prepared. We have not yet had a freeze this year and don't want it to start now......Plumeria still has leaves and hibiscus is blooming and elephant ears are sprouting babies....so sad to see them get popped.

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Alicehunter2000

Claritin D....waking me up early...started thinking about temp....Weather Underground and Accuweather both have temps dropping to below freezing from 4-8 am. Low of 30.5 F..........well that sucks....will see what kind of microclimate I have.

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tank

Claritin D....waking me up early...started thinking about temp....Weather Underground and Accuweather both have temps dropping to below freezing from 4-8 am. Low of 30.5 F..........well that sucks....will see what kind of microclimate I have.

Dave, I don't remember (from your "planting" thread) you having anything in the ground that will have any trouble with mid to upper 20sF. What stuff are you worried about? Your Mules may show some damage on the first year of a transplant due to some frost, but that's just what they do.

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gsytch

Boy this is a COLD FRONT! At one point yesterday, it was 77F with a dewpoint of 70F with off and on heavy showers, and a warm wind. It is currently 44F with winds gusting to 25mph and a dewpoint of 35F, and the temp has dropped two degrees since I got up at 6am. There is a high overcast with some brightness that will never help anything warm. Yet, Saturday is to warm to 70F and Sunday 75F before the bottom drops out again next week. This subtropical jet stream will save us from what could have been a NASTY freeze, with air coming down from Chicago (who expects nothing above zero today as a high). After the next chill, it appears we are in for a few weeks of mild weather! Roller coaster ride. :drool:

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SubTropicRay

The GFS is down to 33F Wednesday morning and some Ensemble models show 27F. The discussion mentions the potential for high cirrus clouds that would reduce the radiational cooling but who wants to hedge their bets on that.

Here's the local discussion:

"NOW...THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS ARCTIC BLAST IS NOT IDEAL FOR OUR
AREA...AND THEREFORE WE WILL NOT LIKELY SEE ANY RECORD BREAKING TYPE
OF COLD...HOWEVER WE WILL DEAL WITH A PIECE OF THIS COLD AND FREEZES
(POTENTIAL HARD FREEZES) FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE
BECOMING MORE LIKELY. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FL PENINSULA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SHARPNESS AND FOCUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT A BAND OF SHOWERS...HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS LAGGING AND MOISTURE IS MEAGER AT BEST. THEREFORE...ANY
CONVECTION LOOKS DISORGANIZED...AND A BIG RAIN EVENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE ARRIVING LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS SHOWN
BY THE GFS/ECMWF TO BE HIGHLY ARCTIC IN ITS THERMAL STRUCTURE. WHAT
DOES THIS MEAN? OFTEN FORECASTERS USE THE 850MB TEMPERATURES AS A
GAGE TO THE STRENGTH OF A COLD AIRMASS. WITH A TRUE ARCTIC
AIRMASS...THIS PHILOSOPHY OFTEN FAILS AS THE COLDER TEMPERATURE
PROFILES ARE BELOW THIS LEVEL...RESULTING IN AN "ARCTIC INVERSION".
THIS IS WHAT WE POTENTIALLY HAVE SLATED FOR NEXT TUESDAY. FOR
EXAMPLES...THE GFS SHOWS THE 850MB TEMP AT GAINESVILLE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING TO BE AROUND -1C...WHILE AT 950MB THE TEMP IS -8C. ANOTHER
EXAMPLE OVER TAMPA SHOWS AN 850MB TEMP OF AROUND +2C...WHILE BELOW
AT 950BM THE TEMP IS -4C.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN. WELL...ITS GOING TO GET COLD EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND THE ARCTIC NATURE WILL SLOW THE DAYTIME WARMING EVEN
MORE. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED WAS CONSTRUCTED
USING A GENERAL BLEND OF THE GFS MEX STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE
ECMWF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...AND THEN ADJUSTED APPROPRIATELY TO HOW
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HANDLES ADVECTION FREEZE EVENTS AND RADIATIONAL
FREEZE EVENTS. TEMPERATURE DURING MONDAY ARE NOT LIKELY TO RISE ALL
THAT MUCH (ESPECIALLY FROM I-4 NORTHWARD AS THE CAA REALLY GETS
UNDERWAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S UP
TOWARD CHIEFLAND TO LOW 60S AROUND TAMPA...AND NEAR 70 DOWN TOWARD
FORT MYERS. KEEP IN MIND THAT A GUSTY NORTH WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COOLER. TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL REALLY BEGIN TO DIP
DURING MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. BY SUNRISE TUESDAY
GRIDS WILL SHOW WIDESPREAD 30S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 20S FROM
AROUND HERNANDO COUNTY NORTHWARD. THESE TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY BUMPED UP
A FEW DEGREES FROM THE BLEND MENTIONED ABOVE AS NWP GUIDANCE IS
OFTEN BIASED COLD DURING THE ADVECTION STAGE BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
EVEN WITH THIS ADJUSTMENT...THE NORTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO RESULT
IN WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS IN THE MID/UPPER 20S...AND EVEN SOME TEENS
UP TOWARD THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...
THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ENTRENCHED FOR THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PASS TO OUR NORTH. THE ARCTIC NATURE
OF THE AIRMASS WILL DISCOURAGE DIURNAL MIXING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
A CIRRUS BAND MAY FURTHER SLOW THE DAYTIME WARMING. MANY SPOTS NORTH
OF TAMPA LOOK TO STRUGGLE OR FAIL TO REACH 50...WHILE LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE 50S. ANOTHER POTENTIAL
FREEZE OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT (MOST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NATURE COAST).
WITH THE HIGH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY...THE RADIATIONAL EFFECTS WOULD
SUGGEST AN EVEN BIGGER AREA IS THREATENED BY SUB-FREEZING TEMPS.
HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINLY EXISTS IN THE DEGREE OF HIGH CLOUDS WHICH
CAN (AT TIMES) SLOW THE RADIATIONAL PROCESS. STILL SOME TIME LEFT TO
GET THE DETAILS IRONED OUT...BUT ANYONE WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS
OR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY UP TO
DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN COMMENCE DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE MAIN TROUGH
PIVOTS AWAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL (OR EVEN
RIDGED) IN NATURE OVER THE FL PENINSULA."

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_Keith

11 pm............supposed to get near freezing tonight but hopefully not quite. Lots of wind, so no frost. Moved the potted Bizzy's into a heated outdoor bathroom since they hate cold roots. Back porch plants moved close to the glass doors and huddled together. Really don't expect it to freeze tonight...just doesn't feel that cold, but preparing for tomorrow night and especially next week. Local guys are calling for upper 20's next week....sure hope that changes. Will be putting Christmas lights on the C. macrocarpa (it is throwing a beautiful red leaf just in time for the cold :( ) and the D. cabadae in the pool area this weekend to be prepared. We have not yet had a freeze this year and don't want it to start now......Plumeria still has leaves and hibiscus is blooming and elephant ears are sprouting babies....so sad to see them get popped.

Destin is showing a low of 26 coming next week.

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Alicehunter2000

Jason, just mainly worried about the stuff in the screened area around the pool. C. macrocarpa and D. cabadae. Will take additional measures tonight and next week.

post-97-0-70461200-1388775794_thumb.jpgpost-97-0-12733900-1388775821_thumb.jpgpost-97-0-25246300-1388775852_thumb.jpg

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Walt

Yesterday's high was 82 degrees. This morning's low was 47 degrees. Today's high was only 53 degrees, just a five degree warm up. This morning's low, and for that matter, today's high, was classical advective cooling, as most geographical points farther south are warmer than points north (at least down the inland spine of the state).

Palmdale, 30 road miles south of my location is almost always colder on radiational cooling nights, but during advective events it's generally a couple of degrees warmer, which it was this morning and afternoon.

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gsytch

All forecasts are now trending down. I would anticipate freeze warnings issued all the way to the Everglades, with inland areas near Sebring included. The only saving grace may be the high clouds from the persistent subtropical jet stream. Today hit a whopping 53F after spending most of the day in the upper 40'sF. At least the sun was out for the first time in a week! This was my winter break and the worst weather. Overcast now will keep temps stable through the night. When they predict single digits for Atlanta and Birmingham - I worry! Quick warmup afterwards so just getting thru two chilly days. Here we go again! :violin:

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enigma99

Jason, just mainly worried about the stuff in the screened area around the pool. C. macrocarpa and D. cabadae. Will take additional measures tonight and next week.

attachicon.gif20140103_093119.jpgattachicon.gif20140103_093020.jpgattachicon.gif20140103_093105.jpg

Nice C. macrocarpa. I had 3 of them, and my ex-wife didn't water them and let them die in the Summer :(

Edited by enigma99

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Walt

Yesterday's high was 82 degrees. This morning's low was 47 degrees. Today's high was only 53 degrees, just a five degree warm up. This morning's low, and for that matter, today's high, was classical advective cooling, as most geographical points farther south are warmer than points north (at least down the inland spine of the state).

Palmdale, 30 road miles south of my location is almost always colder on radiational cooling nights, but during advective events it's generally a couple of degrees warmer, which it was this morning and afternoon.

Actually, today's high was just over 67 degrees at midnight and it kept dropping until day break where it bottomed out at 47 degrees, then climbed to 53 degrees. Normally, if the day's high only reached 53 degrees I would expect the following morning's low to be 32 degrees or lower. But since the winds are coming out of the N.E., low temperatures should be similar to this morning's low. My only wish now is that low temps for Tuesday morning don't go below 30 degrees.

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enigma99

Pretty cold GFS 850. Hope you get wind and clouds at night..

2q15g1c.jpg

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PalmatierMeg

Newspaper today predicted a low of 49F for tomorrow. At 9:15 temp out front was 49.3F and on the back lanai 48.2F. Still 10 hours before sunrise.I expect low nearer 40. Next week is too far out but sounds ominous. I brought in the Areca macrocalyx earlier today and the lipstick minutes ago.

The Washington Post (my hometown rag) says lows from Washington through Boston will all fall below 0F for the first time since the mid-90s.

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spockvr6

It was a very nasty -8F this AM just outside on Indianapolis. That's definitely the coldest air I've felt in a couple of decades. A few days from now they are forecasting a high of less than 0.

I am in northern GA and right now its in the low 20s (and I understand they are expecting to fall to near zero in a few nights.) This is definitely a very nasty front so it will be surprising if the freeze doesn't make it at least to central FL.

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bubba

It looks like we have a good chance of breaking double nickels next week. It is about time. This has been an extremely warm Winter in So. Fla.

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Silas_Sancona

Latest update from the weather service suggests the wind may stay up both Monday and Tuesday nights locally.. with maybe some off and on high cloud cover with temps bottoming out around 41 Tuesday morning and possibly 38 on Wednesday.. May consider bringing in a couple things Tuesday night if forecast lows go lower but otherwise not too worried.. just glad this cold blast will be a distant memory by this time next week.

Looks like the position of the Polar Vortex shifts off to the Northeast up into the Arctic later next week as well, cutting off access to the Arctic express.

-Nathan-

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Alicehunter2000

Just watched the local news guys. Tonight the immediate coastal areas will probably stay above freezing. Monday night they are predicting lower 20's. Tues. mid and upper 20's. Going to buy another heater for the pool planting bed....will have one for each bed. Hopefully can position them to keep above freezing without drying things out.

The yard will have to fend for itself with some sheets thrown over smaller stuff. Hope the palm choices and large sizes will carry me through the two nights. Time will tell.

Good luck everyone.....about to be a lot of Freeze Damage data being posted.

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Xhoniwaters1

They don't friggin know. My lows for Monday and Tuesday have been changed 3 times in the past two days! All you can do is expect the worst and when that doesn't happen celebrate by planting more marginal stuff. :asleep:

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palmislandRandy
  • Today Jan 4
    Warmer with spotty showers77°Lo 68°
    more
  • Sun Jan 5
    A couple of showers82°Lo 68°
    more
  • Mon Jan 6
    Mostly cloudy, showers around82°Lo 40°
  • Tue Jan 7
    Partly sunny and cooler59°Lo 51°
    more

82F-40F Monday in Palm Beach, now that's quite a drop! I'm really spoiled with the recent above norm temps.

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Alicehunter2000

They don't friggin know. My lows for Monday and Tuesday have been changed 3 times in the past two days! All you can do is expect the worst and when that doesn't happen celebrate by planting more marginal stuff. :asleep:

:greenthumb: lol ....sounds like a plan

Just checked again...they got it :greenthumb: up to 30 F. on Tues night..........still 23 F. on Monday night :bummed: hopefully brief and not as low as expected....winds 20-30 mph? ......... something tells me that it will not get that low. Lowes heater dept. here I come.

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Xhoniwaters1

They don't friggin know. My lows for Monday and Tuesday have been changed 3 times in the past two days! All you can do is expect the worst and when that doesn't happen celebrate by planting more marginal stuff. :asleep:

:greenthumb: lol ....sounds like a plan

Just checked again...they got it :greenthumb: up to 30 F. on Tues night..........still 23 F. on Monday night :bummed: hopefully brief and not as low as expected....winds 20-30 mph? ......... something tells me that it will not get that low. Lowes heater dept. here I come.

Yeah it's like predicting the eye of a hurricane. They don't kno until the last second.

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Walt

From what I see for my location, the winds will be up Tuesday night and morning (eliminating frost potential) and again, but to a lesser extent, Wednesday night and morning, and temperatures are forecasted to remain above freezing both days.

In my 16+ years living here I've never experienced (virtually) any cold damage during windy cold weather (all foliage damage has been from radiational cold events). In fact, the last windy (advective) cold event I had was in January of 2003 (I think around the 23rd of the month, but I'm not exactly sure of the day now) when my low dropped to 29.5 degrees F, but there was no frost. I only recall some dessication to the upper one-third of the highest leaf of my traveler's palm. I only hope the forecast for my area is correct and that it holds.

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buccaneers37

34.5.........There goes my 10b winter :(

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Eric in Orlando

34F here, 30-32F was predicted. But only 38F predicted tonight and low 80s by the end of the week, quick warmup !

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