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Mauna Kea Cloudforest

Mini Ice Age?

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amazondk

And, every once in a while a big rock from space comes to town and really messes things up. Man made habitat loss is for sure a real big factor. But, I do not think that this has a lot to do with climate change.

dk

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amazondk

Land masses during the last ice age

SeaLevel_LastIceAge.gif

Land Masses Today

SeaLevel_Now.gif

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amazondk

lastgla_mod.gif

present_mod.gif

At least if I had lived in Manaus during the last ice age I still could have grown palm trees.

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_Keith

lastgla_mod.gif

present_mod.gif

At least if I had lived in Manaus during the last ice age I still could have grown palm trees.

To quote a famous movie, "I see dead people." And lot of them.

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amazondk

Just up toward the middle of this picture is where the ice stopped along the Rocky Mountain front during the last Glacial Maximum. It is a pretty rugged place today. I can not imagine 18,000 years ago.

EasternFrontoftheRockies2_zps360c67f6.jp

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amazondk

There was a lot of different ocean front property 94 million years ago.

86010_period_pal_map_18_image.jpg

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enigma99

So much for the great theory that antartica land ice melt is causing the massive sea ice buildup as of late.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/01/03/antarctic_ice_shelf_melt_lowest_ever_recorded_just_not_much_affected_by_global_warming/

Land ice melt pace is now at the lowest ever recorded :) Hurry and bring in the carbon taxes and redistribution of wealth or we're all doomed

Edited by enigma99

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Mauna Kea Cloudforest

5 pages of this stuff and this thread is still alive? Wow, I would never have guessed it would last that long. When I first posted this I was mostly interested in the possibility that low sun activity could be linked to an upcoming "mini" ice age. But the "look, here's an article that proves the man-made greenhouse effect" followed by "look, here's an article that disproves the man-made greenhouse effect" that has derailed this thread gets real old after a while.

I challenge all of you to discuss the mini-ice age theory without getting into the dogma associated with man-made global warming or the lack thereof. My bet is you can't do it. Prove me wrong.

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Alicehunter2000

I would be happy to discuss it but my points are idiotic.

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enigma99

I'll accept your challenge and get this thread back on track. Although the debate of greenhouses gases could go on for years based on conflicting science reports, for at least 10+ years, we have peaked or been in slight decline. Here is data from PAED (Anchorage AFB) in the last 22 years, shows a slight decline. Hopefully temps will hold, but I believe that we could easily go into a mini ice age. Now for us in Calif, cooler oceans actually help us, but surely some areas will be affected.

Left is December, Right is June. Summer temps are for sure getting hammered.. not good. Maybe this correlates to the reduction is solar activity. I think it will take a while to slip into the next ice age, but I believe a 10C reduction could happen within the next 200 years

2enyq9h.pngfc2paq.png

Edited by enigma99

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Dypsisdean

So much for the great theory that antartica land ice melt is causing the massive sea ice buildup as of late.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/01/03/antarctic_ice_shelf_melt_lowest_ever_recorded_just_not_much_affected_by_global_warming/

Land ice melt pace is now at the lowest ever recorded :) Hurry and bring in the carbon taxes and redistribution of wealth or we're all doomed

Interesting - thanks for the link.

But I'll reserve comment while I respect Axel's request.

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amazondk

I'll accept your challenge and get this thread back on track. Although the debate of greenhouses gases could go on for years based on conflicting science reports, for at least 10+ years, we have peaked or been in slight decline. Here is data from PAED (Anchorage AFB) in the last 22 years, shows a slight decline. Hopefully temps will hold, but I believe that we could easily go into a mini ice age. Now for us in Calif, cooler oceans actually help us, but surely some areas will be affected.

Left is December, Right is June. Summer temps are for sure getting hammered.. not good. Maybe this correlates to the reduction is solar activity. I think it will take a while to slip into the next ice age, but I believe a 10C reduction could happen within the next 200 years

2enyq9h.pngfc2paq.png

Would it be possible for you to make one of these graphs for Manaus Amazonas, Brazil? I am curious what it looks like.

Thanks, dk

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Shirleypalmpaws

David, your posts are never idiotic. :wub:

But mine sorta are…. :mrlooney: . A few days ago, I saw an article about the sun's magnetic poles are going to flip, so there was a video illustrating it with various dates included. I wonder how that sort of thing correlates to weather climes here on plant Earth------and what about Earth's magnetic poles shifts, along with Earth wobble, elliptic swing, the solar flares, sunspots, moon relationship, other bigger universe happenings such as massive super nova, and other closer galaxy et cetera that could effect Earth's overall climate? Are these kind of things considered? IDK, it seems very semi-strange to think that Earth might exist in a vacuum.

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Alicehunter2000

Thanks Shirley, I agree there are probably a lot more complicated interrelationships than even the computer models can predict. Models are only as good as the people who write them, and then only good through a lot of verification. The problem is that verification is difficult to achieve in the time span of a couple of hundred years. As I mentioned earlier, I can agree wholeheartedly that we should get away from carbon based fuels but for different reasons.....oops sorry I got off the discussion of an Ice Age.

Axel, I believe that like everything in nature, the earth has rhythm's....the graphs that you all have been posting are probably about as good as anything to predict a coming cold event (ie ice age). In fact, to bring it full circle to the complicated interrelationships and computer modeling mentioned above, graphing may be a better predictor than said modeling.

Don.......you don't need a graph.....it will be warm in the Amazon in the future. Pretty sure about that one. Good to see you posting again...wondered what happened to you.....how is the tree business?

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amazondk

David,

You are right, the climate here leaves little to imagination. The coldest it gets is around 70 F and the hottest around 105 F. And, with most of the year the daytimes highs from 88 F to 95 F. The nights are always pretty much the same right around 72 F.

As to business I have traded trees for importing LED lights. From what I can tell the next six years are going to be very good for LED sales.

dk

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_Keith

David,

You are right, the climate here leaves little to imagination. The coldest it gets is around 70 F and the hottest around 105 F. And, with most of the year the daytimes highs from 88 F to 95 F. The nights are always pretty much the same right around 72 F.

As to business I have traded trees for importing LED lights. From what I can tell the next six years are going to be very good for LED sales.

dk

Very interesting, Don, on the LED sales. On the home owner side, they are such a no-brainer if the price would come down a bit. I hope that happens. Municipalities on the other hand on things like traffic signals alone have tremendous saving to get right now.

On another side note, not sure if I told you, but my Cubiu got quite large, becoming a unique and attractive plant, and did make a single fruit. I have the seeds fermenting right now.

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Mats

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQHqgdvXTxE

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_Keith

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQHqgdvXTxE

Yeah, that was convincing, lol. But, as I have been saying, one sunspot cycle, or even 3 or 4 cycles means nothing. Climate does not change in decades. Short term, and that means in centuries, it just bobs up and down randomly like waves in a pond. We'll know in a few thousand years, the truth, and that is that yes, the climate is changing, just maybe then they will know in which way. Climate has always changed, and it always will, and when it stops, well that is when mankind is truly doomed.

And I would not worry about the effect of hydrocarbons, either. They will be exhausted long before anything other than a minute blip is seen on that same timeline. As humans we see the planet on our timeline, which is nothing. In 120 years, every living soul on this plant, everyone alive right now, every single one, will be dead. 99% of all life, plant, animal, sea all the way down to microbe will be dead. Probably every plant in your garden will be dead and gone. I have a few Live Oaks that might be an exception. We, as people, are not even here long enough to be a blip. Our self awareness does not make us truly aware. We are trying to take a one second period in a century, and then saying it means something. The only thing it means is that we were alive for a second. Enjoy that second.

Dang, that was kind of deep. I need another glass of wine to flush such foolishness from my head. I have a second to enjoy.

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Alicehunter2000

Wikipedia .....

"There have been at least five major ice ages in the Earth's past (the Huronian,Cryogenian, Andean-Saharan, Karoo Ice Ageand the Quaternary glaciation). Outside these ages, the Earth seems to have been ice-free even in high latitudes."

"Within the ice ages (or at least within the current one), more temperate and more severe periods occur. The colder periods are called glacial periods, the warmer periods interglacials"

"The Earth has been in an interglacial period known as the Holocene for more than 11,000 years. It was conventional wisdom that the typical interglacial period lasts about 12,000 years, but this has been called into question recently. For example, an article in Nature[36] argues that the current interglacial might be most analogous to a previous interglacial that lasted 28,000 years."

It always feels like we are not on the same page in terms of spans of time when discussing things. I am thinking of climatic/geologic ages and glacial periods as occurring over thousands of years not just a couple of hundred years. Are we long term investors, swing traders, day traders or high frequency traders? It makes a difference in how you view climate and the market.

Keith.....LOL....I just posted this and realized that you posted something to the same effect....and I have not even had one drink yet.

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enigma99

As requested here is the chart for Brazil. Not looking good, it is cooling a lot there... wunderground data only goes back to 1997, but it speaks for itself

25kmnfq.png

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_Keith

As requested here is the chart for Brazil. Not looking good, it is cooling a lot there... wunderground data only goes back to 1997, but it speaks for itself

25kmnfq.png

Another year or two and they will be back to 78. Oh, the carnage.

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Zeeth

This question is directed toward those who don't believe in human caused climate change: what are your opinions on ocean acidification, and how it relates to coral reef environments?

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_Keith

This question is directed toward those who don't believe in human caused climate change: what are your opinions on ocean acidification, and how it relates to coral reef environments?

My opinion is that man is nature, no different than volcanoes, earthquakes, tsunamis, etc. We can certainly cause an effect. A very short term non essential effect. I laugh when I hear terms like "Save the Planet." Mankind has not even been around long enough for the planet to have even noticed we are here. This is not philosophy, just simple math. Now don't get me wrong, I don't believe we should pollute. My father taught me to leave things in nature they way you found them, and I believe in that. I do believe in social responsibility, not to save the planet, but to make life better for people for the short time we are here. It is just the "right" thing to do. But I will never fool myself, nature has some tricks that in a moment could wipe out every effect man ever had cumulative. And I hope my nano-second on this planet does not witness one.

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enigma99

Zeeth, lets try to keep this thread on track rather then getting into the human caused climate change theory. We are talking about global cooling and the coming ice age

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amazondk

As requested here is the chart for Brazil. Not looking good, it is cooling a lot there... wunderground data only goes back to 1997, but it speaks for itself

25kmnfq.png

Thank you. I guess I still will not have to worry about putting on a jacket when I go out.

dk

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amazondk

David,

You are right, the climate here leaves little to imagination. The coldest it gets is around 70 F and the hottest around 105 F. And, with most of the year the daytimes highs from 88 F to 95 F. The nights are always pretty much the same right around 72 F.

As to business I have traded trees for importing LED lights. From what I can tell the next six years are going to be very good for LED sales.

dk

Very interesting, Don, on the LED sales. On the home owner side, they are such a no-brainer if the price would come down a bit. I hope that happens. Municipalities on the other hand on things like traffic signals alone have tremendous saving to get right now.

On another side note, not sure if I told you, but my Cubiu got quite large, becoming a unique and attractive plant, and did make a single fruit. I have the seeds fermenting right now.

Keith,

I know that this is off track. But, I am glad your cubiu survived. As to solid state lighting it is an incredible new world of options for using light that has opened up. And, the technology is brand new, there are a lot of gains to come in the near future.

Ice ages go back a long ways in our planet's history. The Cryogenian period which ran from 850 million years ago to 635 million years ago was know for what was called ice ball earth. During this time it looks like glaciers could have reached the equator.

snowball_earth_1.jpg

People tend to relate a lot more to weather than climate. What is happening in the USA this winter is weather. But, it could be part of a large climate trend or maybe it isn't. Personally from what I have managed to learn climate is so complex that even the best computer climate models present no certainty as to what will come and when. What we do seem to know is that our planet has gone from being almost all ice to a lot of water and no ice. The arrival of mammals on the scene in the late Triassic period eventually gave rise to our species (that is if one believes in evolution). This was before plate tectonics split up the super continent. Since the land mass was so large it played a much different role than the current continents do. The poles were probably ice free at that time. Our earliest decendants appeared about 220 million years ago. Who would have imagined that tiny mammals would one day evolve into a species that would dominate the earth. There is a good program on the History channel playing about the universe and our solar system. Flying around space can be a dangerous place to be. The part about Venus is very interesting. Venus apparantly had oceans like earth in it's earlier life, for maybe up to a billion years. Then something changed and the oceans dried up. More than likely boiled and the water was lost due to some major change. It could have even been hit by a smaller planet and knocked all the water off the planet in one blow. Since both Earth and Venus had oceans at about the same time life could have been there as well. What we do know is that nothing like we have here now could survive there today.

As Keith says, we are just little blimps on a grand stage. One thing we can count on is that we will know, that is we are still alive, if a mini age comes or not. Since nothing that man can do today will change that much.Tthe outcome will be what it will be. Even if man made influences are modifying our climate we certainly will do nothing to change that in the forseeable future. As Keith said hydrocarbons will go one day. When who knows, but certainly new technologies will appear that will eventurally make them obsolete. That is if nothing cataclysmic happens first.

dk

artist-impression-asteroid-impact-earth-

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The7thLegend

Several hundred years ago scientific "consensus" also agreed the world was flat. I think there are A LOT of moving parts that alter our climate. At the same time you can clearly see a direct corelation between the suns activity and our temperatures. Something not mentioned in this thread (or perhaps I missed it) is volcanoes & earthquakes. They spit out tons of CO2 (long before man) and an earthquake has been shown to alter the Earth's axis and shorten our days. Maybe very little but add that up over a period of days and years. Yes some of these volcanoes are even active in Iceland melting away the ice.

I think 60 minutes has a special on volcanoes tonight that might interest many of you in between football.

Also our continents and the Earth are always changing and it's absurd to think it's unsual when weather events like Superstorm Sandy, Katrina, Japan tsunami, etc happen. It's nature's way and we can continue to try and terraform but eventually the big one will get us. What if Yellowstone erupts?

Fossils prove many species go extinct due to natural selection and climate beyond our control, many of them burried in ash. However when man dams up a river which is the life blood of an endangered species that is different. My point is I think we all care about the enviroment because we want our palms and other plants to thrive so even if we have opposing viewpoints continuing the discussion is good cause that's how you learn.

Back on topic the sun does seem to indicate a calming and the deep freeze over much of the US is rather convincing. I think we will have a better idea with another year or 2 and more data.

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palmsnbananas

Man I was looking out the window and I swear the earth didn't look like it was moving and I think the sun was revolving around the earth. Who's paying these scientists to pretend the the earth is moving.. Its probably the global space program fooling us all, don't believe everything you hear guys.

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Mats

Several hundred years ago scientific "consensus" also agreed the world was flat.

No, that's not true.
"The myth of the Flat Earth is the modern misconception that the prevailing cosmological view during the Middle Ages saw the Earth as flat, instead of spherical.
During the early Middle Ages, virtually all scholars maintained the spherical viewpoint first expressed by the Ancient Greeks. From at least the 14th century, belief in a flat Earth among the educated was almost nonexistent...
According to Stephen Jay Gould, "there never was a period of 'flat earth darkness' among scholars (regardless of how the public at large may have conceptualized our planet both then and now). Greek knowledge of sphericity never faded, and all major medieval scholars accepted the Earth's roundness as an established fact of cosmology."
Historians of science David Lindberg and Ronald Numbers point out that "there was scarcely a Christian scholar of the Middle Ages who did not acknowledge [Earth's] sphericity and even know its approximate circumference"."

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amazondk

I have not participated in PT for quite a while. Some years ago I did participate in quite a few climate related threads. In the end most did not meet a good finish. Anyway it is nice to have some reason to look at things related to climate. I also took a look at mass extinctions and sure enough some consider the current times to be in the midst of an extinction. Maybe it will lead to the extinction of humanity as artificial intelligence takes over. Or maybe instead of take over merges with biological intelligence. Technology is evolving quickly, who knows what could happen.

To put things on a visible time line this is where tempertures seem to have been over geologic time.

Earth_tem_All_palaeotemps_mark-up_2.png

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enigma99

Also I'd expect people to know the difference between weather and climate, we're not your babysitters, if your ignorant of the facts its your own fault don't come into arguments when you can't understand the basics and then try to pick a side.

Wow, someone feels threatened. Just getting louder doesn't make your message true, keep that in mind.

I guess people believe what they want to believe, it's a free country so continuing believing in your religion.

The irony is that you're the one with a religion. We have an open mind, and actually look at data for ourselves to confirm/deny and don't believe the Easter bunny is real if we are told so.
Edited by enigma99

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Xerarch

Let the countdown begin until this thread gets shut down.......seriously guys.

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spockvr6

. Maybe it will lead to the extinction of humanity as artificial intelligence takes over. Or maybe instead of take over merges with biological intelligence. Technology is evolving quickly, who knows what could happen.

[

This is the thought of many futuristic thinkers.....the next stage of human evolution is perhaps likely to be something along these lines. Freaky stuff! But if it happens it won't seem freaky to our future selves.

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The7thLegend

Several hundred years ago scientific "consensus" also agreed the world was flat.

No, that's not true.
"The myth of the Flat Earth is the modern misconception that the prevailing cosmological view during the Middle Ages saw the Earth as flat, instead of spherical.
During the early Middle Ages, virtually all scholars maintained the spherical viewpoint first expressed by the Ancient Greeks. From at least the 14th century, belief in a flat Earth among the educated was almost nonexistent...
According to Stephen Jay Gould, "there never was a period of 'flat earth darkness' among scholars (regardless of how the public at large may have conceptualized our planet both then and now). Greek knowledge of sphericity never faded, and all major medieval scholars accepted the Earth's roundness as an established fact of cosmology."
Historians of science David Lindberg and Ronald Numbers point out that "there was scarcely a Christian scholar of the Middle Ages who did not acknowledge [Earth's] sphericity and even know its approximate circumference"."

Yes... it is. Read your own Wiki reference. It clearly states time periods and civilizations in which cultures believed so. Nowhere in my post was I specific to the middle ages & Europe Columbus alone.

The point in my statement is that as more facts are gathered viewpoints change/evolve. Too bad you missed my point and was more concerned with busting my chops.

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The Flat Earth model is an archaic belief that the Earth's shape is a plane or disk. Many ancient cultures have had conceptions of a flat Earth, including Greece until the classical period, the Bronze Age and Iron Age civilizations of the Near East until the Hellenistic period, India until the Gupta period (early centuries AD) and China until the 17th century

Accordingly, the 13th-century scholar Li Ye, who argued that the movements of the round heaven would be hindered by a square Earth

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Explorer

I have not participated in PT for quite a while. Some years ago I did participate in quite a few climate related threads. In the end most did not meet a good finish. Anyway it is nice to have some reason to look at things related to climate. I also took a look at mass extinctions and sure enough some consider the current times to be in the midst of an extinction. Maybe it will lead to the extinction of humanity as artificial intelligence takes over. Or maybe instead of take over merges with biological intelligence. Technology is evolving quickly, who knows what could happen.

To put things on a visible time line this is where tempertures seem to have been over geologic time.

Earth_tem_All_palaeotemps_mark-up_2.png

During the Climate Optimum, about 5000 to 8000 years ago the climate was also warmer. So the warming we see now could be also a natural proces. And man only adds a bit to it with that extra CO2. But the current rapid extinction of many plants and animals has nothing or very little to do with climate chance but everything with habitatdestruction. And that is linked with the rapid growth of human population in many parts of the World. Madagascar is a good example. And then all those people want a car, etcetera. And they all need food. Scientist should focus much more on how to stop the growth of human population instead of climate chance! But it seems to be a sort of taboo to say that we live on a overpopulated Earth.

Alexander

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Mauna Kea Cloudforest

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQHqgdvXTxE

Thanks, Matt, that video pretty much is what I was looking for.

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Funkthulhu

I guess people believe what they want to believe, it's a free country so continuing believing in your religion.

The irony is that you're the one with a religion. We have an open mind, and actually look at data for ourselves to confirm/deny and don't believe the Easter bunny is real if we are told so.

If we start getting into religion AND Climate change in the same thread it will get deleted.

So let us just stick to facts here:

1. Global Warming is a Real and Measurable effect taking place on Earth and refers to the global Average temperature,

2. The Vast majority of the CO2 and other emissions that are causing Global Warming are created by human activity (Anthropogenic),

3. Increased temperatures in the atmosphere equates to more energy in the system,

4. More energy in the system leads to more numerous and more intense fluctuations in "extreme" weather events, (both "hot" and "cold")

and finally,

5. Temporary, localized weather events are NOT indicative of climate or climate change, and the recent cold snap is not indicative of a new "mini-ice age"

Now that we have reset that bar, continue to discuss.

Edited by Funkthulhu

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Mauna Kea Cloudforest

F. Scott Fitzgerald once said that "The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function."

I see people insulting each other on this thread because they hold opposing points of view. Why? Which one of you holds a PhD in climatology, physics, geology or oceanography AND which one of you actually conducts research in this area? Which ones of you have ever tried to solve Eulers' equations or Navier Stokes equations for the global oceanic and atmospheric circulation? Which one of you understands the coupling between non-linear atmospheric physics, the ocean circulation and all the complexity associated with salinity and the solar-atmospheric radiation system? How about the geology of the planet in terms of energy balance equations taking into account radiative transfers and atmospheric scattering?

If the answer is "no" on both the research and the pedigree and to a large majority of the follow up equations, then I'd say you stand zero ground to actually hold a "truth" "for" or "against" human made global warming. If you think you know, then you have an opinion that will actually blind you to learning more. The only reasonable option is to listen to all sides, and NOT form an opinion on the actual science, but stay open minded. Everything else is just blinding OPINION and is not science.

I have a PhD in physics and did some oceanography in grad school, and I know enough to know how little I actually truly understand about the immense complexity of this massive coupled system of solar radiation + oceanic circulation + atmospheric dynamics. So the only reasonable option for me is to listen to all sides of legitimate scientists, and tune out the garbage coming from politicians, bloggers and paid thinktank people. There are a multitude of sides, and the best I can do is to listen to them all and keep asking questions.

Because of the immense complexity of the subject, politicians and the public do have a major challenge: how do you create policy around something that is so poorly understood? That's where the subject veers off the cliff, and that's a whole other debate that is just not appropriate for this forum. But we should be able to discuss the science around this issue without getting opinionated and personal.

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enigma99

1. Global Warming is a Real and Measurable effect taking place on Earth and refers to the global Average temperature,

You sure about that? Most data shows that the warming stopped in the 90s. Using my script I wrote to rip data off wunderground, it looks like it has been getting cooler, not warmer and that's why we're talking of an ice age. I have shared the script here so we can discuss by using our own data.

27wumc1.png
10z44k9.png
hv9h7c.png
25kmnfq.png
Edited by enigma99

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_Keith

That is great stuff, but locally based. You must use a global average that is representative of the planet as a whole. Which ain't easy, and hence the source of all arguments.

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