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Brahea Axel

Mini Ice Age?

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_Keith

And the bank, err band, plays on.

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palmsnbananas

Wow shocking! You mean Exxon Mobil the worlds biggest corporation is trying to undermine the global warming effort! Impossible.. who could have seen that coming!! I thought grad students were the rich and powerful pseudo-science-politicos that were engaged in a massive conspiracy to make up this global warming nonsense to fund their secret ownership of wind farms! It just doesn't make sense anymore .. I don't know what to believe :indifferent:

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bubba

For West Coasters, what was the variant (etc. sunspots,CO2...) that created the California cold waves of 1949, 1937 and 1913 that seem responsible for historical low temperatures. Additionally, it seems that when it got cold, as it did during these time-frames, it stayed cold in California for an extended period of time.

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Brahea Axel

For West Coasters, what was the variant (etc. sunspots,CO2...) that created the California cold waves of 1949, 1937 and 1913 that seem responsible for historical low temperatures. Additionally, it seems that when it got cold, as it did during these time-frames, it stayed cold in California for an extended period of time.

I think it might be the Pacific Decadal oscillation. Same as the cold phase we're entering now. But correlation doesn't mean causation. And it's not super low on some of these years: http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

For a graph, see http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/PDO.html.

1913    -0.03   0.34   0.06  -0.92   0.66   1.43   1.06   1.29   0.73   0.62   0.75   0.90
1949    -2.01  -3.60  -1.00  -0.53  -1.07  -0.70  -0.56  -1.30  -0.93  -1.41  -0.83  -0.80
1937     0.00  -0.49   0.38   0.20   0.53   1.75   0.11  -0.35   0.63   0.76  -0.18   0.55

But far more interesting is 1972, 1990, 1998, and 2007, all years with ten year to 100 year freezes. See the index below.

1972    -1.99  -1.83  -2.09  -1.65  -1.57  -1.87  -0.83   0.25   0.17   0.11   0.57  -0.33
1990    -0.30  -0.65  -0.62   0.27   0.44   0.44   0.27   0.11   0.38  -0.69  -1.69  -2.23
1998     0.83   1.56   2.01   1.27   0.70   0.40  -0.04  -0.22  -1.21  -1.39  -0.52  -0.44

PDO_Phase.gif

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bubba

Thank you Axel!

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enigma99

http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/half-the-us-is-already-covered-with-snow/2013/12/20/84203c36-682d-11e3-a0b9-249bbb34602c_print.html

Half the U.S. is already covered with snow By Douglas Main and Live Science, Published: December 23

Last week, snow covered more than half of the continental United States, the highest this measure has reached by this date in a decade, according to government scientists.

As of Dec. 15, snow covered 53 percent of the Lower 48, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported. That’s a significantly higher portion than in recent years. In 2006, for example, snow covered just 12 percent of those states on the same date, according to Climate Central, a climate news Web site.

Actually, I believe it is because of the East Pacific high pressure, allowing cold air to flood in over the mainland.

Edited by enigma99

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amazondk

I haven posted much on PT for a while.. I always like these discussions. It appears that over Earth's history abrupt climate change is more the norm than the excpetion. A radical shift from warm to cold is looking now like it can happen quickly depending on the factors driving it. What is called the mini ice age came after the medievil warm period from 1550 AD to 1850 AD. The earth has been warming since then. But, since we are in an interglacial period, the Holocene, it is more likely than not that the ice will come again. It has been like that for the past few million years anyway. I read some artilces lately that pointed to sometimes abrupt change in the climate from warmer to colder or the opposite. It appears though that where I live on the equator even during the last ice age the temperatures never got near the freezing point. It was cooler and drier, but not cold. On the other hand my home town of Great Falls, Montana was on the edge of the ice sheets and must have had a miserable climate.

Here is some information on this subject I dug up..

http://www.wunderground.com/resources/climate/abruptclimate.asp?MR=1

And,the NOAA site on abrupt climate change - http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/abrupt/story1.html

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enigma99

Sorry guys, I couldn't resist :floor:

'Global warming' scientists forced to admit defeat -- because of too much ice...

They went in search evidence of the world’s melting ice caps, but instead a team of climate scientists have been forced to abandon their mission … because the Antarctic ice is thicker than usual at this time of year.

The scientists have been stuck aboard the stricken MV Akademik Schokalskiy since Christmas Day, with repeated sea rescue attempts being abandoned as icebreaking ships failed to reach them.

Now that effort has been ditched, with experts admitting the ice is just too thick. Instead the crew have built an icy helipad, with plans afoot to rescue the 74-strong team by helicopter.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2531159/Antarctic-crew-build-ice-helipad-help-rescuers.html#ixzz2ozn8k1UP

Edited by enigma99

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Zeeth

Sorry guys, I couldn't resist :floor:

'Global warming' scientists forced to admit defeat -- because of too much ice...

They went in search evidence of the world’s melting ice caps, but instead a team of climate scientists have been forced to abandon their mission … because the Antarctic ice is thicker than usual at this time of year.

The scientists have been stuck aboard the stricken MV Akademik Schokalskiy since Christmas Day, with repeated sea rescue attempts being abandoned as icebreaking ships failed to reach them.

Now that effort has been ditched, with experts admitting the ice is just too thick. Instead the crew have built an icy helipad, with plans afoot to rescue the 74-strong team by helicopter.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2531159/Antarctic-crew-build-ice-helipad-help-rescuers.html#ixzz2ozn8k1UP

SEA ICE. There's a huge difference between sea ice and land ice in terms of sea level. Land ice is still shrinking.

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enigma99

So sea ice is growing because it's so cold but the land ice is shrinking? Does that make a lot of sense?

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Zeeth

So sea ice is growing because it's so cold but the land ice is shrinking? Does that make a lot of sense?

I'm pretty sure this phenomenon has already been explained within this thread.

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Dypsisdean

So - does that mean that the warmer it gets, the more sea ice there should/will be?

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enigma99

So - does that mean that the warmer it gets, the more sea ice there should/will be?

lol. You got it man. People are always looking for little factoids to cover the warming theory. It's like yeah it's colder, but it's because ____.

http://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/article/20131230/GPG0101/312300134/ Green Bay just hit an all time low of record keeping history

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Funkthulhu

Regardless of the total summer melt from global warming the poles are very cold. In the case of Antarctica, the melt that happens in the southern summer is greater due to that warming. However, most of that melt can only occur because of solar radiation being absorbed by darker surfaces, as the ambient air temperature in those areas can still stay below freezing much of the year. Soot and other atmospheric fallout onto the ice creates duller ice/snow, and eventually forms small surface-melt pools with dark material at the bottom absorbing solar heat. (we have photos from the last couple years of the north pole still frozen underneath, but submerged in a small pond of melt-water) The combination of increased temperature and the reduced albedo of the ice results in accelerated melting of both land and sea-ice during each hemisphere's summer.

Salt inhibits ice crystal formation, this is why you sprinkle it on your sidewalk to get rid of ice. As a result, ice will only form in the ocean under special circumstances of extreme cold, or reduced levels of salinity. The increased volume of melt water coming off of Antarctica is yearly lowering the local salinity of surface water (fresh water floats on salt water). The result is that ice formation is much easier and faster during the southern hemisphere winter because of the increased melting during the summer. The same effect can be seen to a lesser extent around northern Greenland in the northern hemisphere winter, but the effects are lessened due to the relative lack of continental glacier ice. The ice over and around the north pole that covers the north polar sea takes longer to form because there is not a lot of fresh melt water to dilute the local salinity. This is why we are having record melting of the north arctic sea-ice over the summers in the last couple decades.

So, yes, in a roundabout way, the increase in global warming both increases southern hemisphere winter sea-ice AND makes it more difficult to for northern hemisphere sea-ice to return to its full extent every year. And in both the Arctic and Antarctic the land supported glacial ice (Antarctica/Greenland) is melting at a record pace every summer in that hemisphere.

Ta-Da!

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displaced_floridian

Thanks for explaining that 'anomaly' about the increasing sea ice in the Antarctic--it's due to the lessened salinity from the land ice melting at a record pace. It doesn't mean the earth is getting colder--quite the opposite. The anti-global warming faction tries to use this as a rebuttal to the warming earth argument, but it doesn't hold water (no pun intended).

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enigma99

Thanks for explaining that 'anomaly' about the increasing sea ice in the Antarctic--it's due to the lessened salinity from the land ice melting at a record pace. It doesn't mean the earth is getting colder--quite the opposite. The anti-global warming faction tries to use this as a rebuttal to the warming earth argument, but it doesn't hold water (no pun intended).

A new look at NASA satellite data revealed that Earth set a new record for coldest temperature recorded. It happened in August 2010 when it hit -135.8 degrees. Then on July 31 of this year, it came close again: -135.3 degrees. The old record had been -128.6 degrees.

You can blame the warm weather for that :rolleyes: Isn't that right global warming faction? The earth could be frozen solid, but you will still find some factoid to back up your theories

Edited by enigma99

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palmblues

The problem w your analogy, enigma99, is the satellite Landsat8, which found the new low temp info, was just launched in 2013. Before 2013 the lowest temp recorded was in East Antarctica in 1983. Landsat8 found this Antarctic mountain ridge, which had never been measured before, and recorded what they found. So finding a colder spot on the planet now, one which was not known nor measured in 1983, does not show the Earth is getting colder now, It only shows a newer coldest spot has been found on the planet.

Edited by palmblues

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palmblues

also, it has been scientifically established, NASA again, that the Arctic and Antarctic are both warming much faster than the rest of the planet so a cold spot found in Antarctica shows very little if anything. Its always cold at the poles.

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amazondk

Regarding Antarctica Nasa has a good page here - http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/20100108_Is_Antarctica_Melting.html

It does not say anything about Antarctica warming much faster than the rest of the planet here though.

This is from this page by NASA.

" How is it possible for surface melting to decrease, but for the continent to lose mass anyway? The answer boils down to the fact that ice can flow without melting."

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palmblues

If you google or bing 'poles warming faster' it brings up the NASA page "Whats causing the poles to warm faster than the rest of Earth?' They go into a full explanation. According to the Goddard Institute, they are warming more than twice as fast as the rest of the planet.

Edited by palmblues

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amazondk

Thanks I looked that up. And, I came up with another NASA page on the subject here - http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/warmingpoles.html

I think the important point they bring up is this - "The total warming at the poles is due to changes in clouds, water vapor, surface albedo and atmospheric temperature," he said. "But there is greater warming in the winter than in the summer and that is caused by energy transport," he said.

So, if the temperatures are warmer in the winter does that really make much difference at the poles since cold is cold. I know from having grown up in Montana that there is not much of differnce between 30 F below zero and 40 F below zero. Both temperatures can kill you. In fact the last time I had extreme cold in Montana it was around 25 F below zero. And, that sure was enough to make your bones ache.

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palmblues

well the operative word in your warming poles quote amazondk is 'changes' one would think. All the changes to 'clouds, water vapor, surface albedo, and atmospheric temperature (which would include the warming of the oceans b/c of humidity)' that forced CO2 in the atmosphere has caused. And also, overheating kills too. Once the human body gets just a few degrees above 98.6 it can not sweat enough to cool itself down. Thats why so many people die in heat waves. But this is neither here nor there i would guess. That was a good NASA article about the warming oceans and Antarctic Ice Melt btw.

Edited by palmblues

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amazondk

The only thing climate ever does is change. As to heat, where I live heat is the norm. And, you learn to live with it. It is interesting how heat kills people in one place and in another it is just another day. During the dry season here on my part of the equator the average daily temperatures (August through October normally) runs near 40 C and sometimes over. In Europe and other places people die when the temperatures are in this range frequently. There is a lot of speculation on what climate change does to the Amazon forest and what man does that impacts it. And, what that could do to world climate. The Amazon basin is a major factor in the climate of South America and the forest plays a big role in this.

The main weather maker in my part of the tropics is the Intertropical convergence zone, which is always somewhat near Manaus. This time of the year it more overhead and acts a moisture conveyor moving humid air into southern Brazil during the summer rainy season there. The dry season here is directly related to when the ITCZ moves north of the equator. Now what that has to do with a mini ice age I do not know, But, undoubtedly there would be some impact. As shown in the map of the only places on the equatorial tropics where the ITCZ is close to the same areas all year are the Amazon Basin and Central Africa.

800px-ITCZ_january-july.png

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enigma99

Also 15 million years ago science shows Antarctica harbored vegetation and some trees. I think the earth adjusts to warming if it is man made or solar caused

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palmblues

enigma99 - That USAtoday article is only about half of North America, and the USA is a very small part of the Earth ecologically. The vast majority of this planet had record warm temps last year. 9 of the 10 warmest years on record have happened since 2001. Using the continental US as a comparison to what happened in the whole of the world is not workable.

Edited by palmblues

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_Keith

enigma99 - That USAtoday article is only about half of North America, and the USA is a very small part of the Earth ecologically. The vast majority of this planet had record warm temps last year. 9 of the 10 warmest years on record have happened since 2001. Using the continental US as a comparison to what happened in the whole of the world is not workable.

One could argue that what ever happened locally, even it that local is North America, is just weather. Climate change, I would think would be based on Global averages including all regions combined.

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palmblues

^ much better said than i ever could :-)

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Brahea Axel

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enigma99

For the record, I believe warming is indeed happening as I have said before. Just the cause as being from humans is inconclusive and the path that leads in that direction is dangerous. (ie. spraying chemicals/metals in the atmosphere, carbon taxes etc)

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enigma99

I was bored tonight and wrote a little Python script to grab data from wunderground (Airport History) and plot the means so we can track temps.

The link to the script is http://pastebin.com/4M8NSGMB

And some sample reports created using chartgo.com

KSMF (Sacramento) 0.6F increase

ksmf.png

Anchorage

pamr.png

Try it and have fun.

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enigma99

Couple more

Miami

KMIA.png

Barrow, AK

PAED.png

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amazondk

Since we are in an interglacial period there are only two possiblities from what I can see.

1. there will be another ice age at some point in time.

2. for some reason the ice age cycles have ceased and we have entered into another climate scheme with no more ice ages.

164.jpg

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enigma99

Nearby Auburn, CA... It's actually got colder since 1950 over time. I think some places have cooked data (i.e. they modified temps or put close to a heat source). Nobody cares about Auburn right?

10pbt6c.png

Edited by enigma99

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Alicehunter2000

Also what is this idiotic argument of "is colder better or is warmer better" "i like it warmer" "its been warmer before", are you arguing with yourself, is there a scientist saying that if the global temp avg was X instead of Y it would be "better".. NO.

Yeah, everyone knows its been warmer at different points during the history of the earth, thanks for the revelation.

The point is the climate is changing FASTER than animals and plants can adapt, so many species are going EXTINCT. Is it clear now?

There's also other reasons to be concerned sea level rise etc of course.

I have been restraining myself ever since this was posted...but..

"Idiotic argument" ? Are you suggesting that I am an Idiot? Funny how people will say things when they are behind a keyboard that they would never say to someone in person....My recomendation is that you look at the new PT Terms of Service prior to posting any possible inflamitory content. I know you are just passionate about your cause, so I forgive your derogatory words.

When I asked if colder is better or is warmer better, I was attempting to stimulate the discussion that possibly more people and species of plants and animals die from colder rather than warmer climate change. I see this as in no way "arguing with myself"...not even sure what you are infering by that statement.

"is there a scientist saying that if the global temp avg was X instead of Y it would be "better".. NO."

Really? I thought that was the whole global warming argument?

"The point is the climate is changing FASTER than animals and plants can adapt, so many species are going EXTINCT."

Really? I didn't know that the climate change we have already undergone to this point in time has caused the extinction of many species. You wouldn't happen to have a list and proof that man-made climate change caused these extinctions would you? Not saying you don't .... I just have not seen the list....or is this just a theory of what might happen?

Is it clear now? My normally cloudy brain thinks that yes....yes, a lot of things are clear now.

"There's also other reasons to be concerned sea level rise etc of course."

Yes, we can't have that happen...I live to close to the coast....what can we do? Carbon credits? Electric vehicles? Energy efficient light bulbs? Inflating the air in my tires? Post on websites to try and convince people; and if they are not convinced........shout them down and besmirch them?

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enigma99

"The point is the climate is changing FASTER than animals and plants can adapt, so many species are going EXTINCT."

As Don pasted above, there is a very consistent warming and cooling pattern. (Interglacials) Changes of 10C within short periods of times... yet there may have been extinctions but it's just the natural cycle and we have no control over it.

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