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Dec 2013 California Freeze Watch


Mauna Kea Cloudforest

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My garden fared well last night. The only damage I noticed today was minor heliconia and banana leaf burn, just a few leaves. My main thermometer registered 32F for a low at just before 7 AM. It's 52F at 12:40 PM so I'm guessing it will not be as cold tonight or, at least, no colder than last night. Thank God for the SF Bay and how it moderates cold northerly air flow for us South Bayers!

Jim in Los Altos, CA  SF Bay Area 37.34N- 122.13W- 190' above sea level

zone 10a/9b

sunset zone 16

300+ palms, 90+ species in the ground

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My garden fared well last night. The only damage I noticed today was minor heliconia and banana leaf burn, just a few leaves. My main thermometer registered 32F for a low at just before 7 AM. It's 52F at 12:40 PM so I'm guessing it will not be as cold tonight or, at least, no colder than last night. Thank God for the SF Bay and how it moderates cold northerly air flow for us South Bayers!

Jim, this was the worst freeze for Santa Cruz since 1998. I've not seen it this bad, even 2007 spared Santa Cruz.

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If I remember right, 2007's cold air was coming from a northeast trajectory, thus giving us in the South Bay no or very little bay influence and protection. This current cold air is flowing much more northerly which forces it to pass over the bay before hitting my area. In 2007 I had an ultimate low of 26.5F so last night, at 32F, was nothing in comparison, here at least.

Jim in Los Altos, CA  SF Bay Area 37.34N- 122.13W- 190' above sea level

zone 10a/9b

sunset zone 16

300+ palms, 90+ species in the ground

Las Palmas Design

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Elegant Homes and Gardens

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Jeff, TWC is @ saying 24F for the weekend in Modesto which is better than Sac. Actually where I live which is a proven 9b across the years is showing 19F for Sunday. I have never seen a forecast below 24 in the many years I have been checking it and now an 8b forecast.

Last night was 24F and there is still some green on bananas underneath and palms close to the ground.

The most depressing thing is that TWC was showing lows in the 40s after Tue but now revised to arctic for another week or more. The southern jet NEEDS to move otherwise we will keep getting hammered

Edited by enigma99
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46f in Spring Valley this morning. Waiting to see what happens when this cold drops our way.

Matt Bradford

"Manambe Lavaka"

Spring Valley, CA (8.5 miles inland from San Diego Bay)

10B on the hill (635 ft. elevation)

9B in the canyon (520 ft. elevation)

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Last night, I forgot to switch on my heater ughhh. Some stuff got hurt a little, but not dead. Tonight, I have them on but a lot warmer and above 32. Good thing I have them on now! :D

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Frost Advisory for SD County this morning, but even after an evening temp of 46f we only hit 44f for our low in the morning. I suspect it wasn't that bad for everyone because a substantial cloud cover rolled in overnight. Tonight will have some cold rain showers and then the fun will begin once that all clears out, especially if high pressure builds behind it, forcing the cold west, down from the frozen high desert. We'll see...

Matt Bradford

"Manambe Lavaka"

Spring Valley, CA (8.5 miles inland from San Diego Bay)

10B on the hill (635 ft. elevation)

9B in the canyon (520 ft. elevation)

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Local WUnderground station measured 23 last night. I think we were slightly above that. Channel 2 news has this for the 5-day forecast lows inland: 22 (probably recorded this a.m.) with rain starting in the evening and running thru Sat a.m., snow likely on the bay hills, low Sat 35, then 34, 22, 24. Can't really find a future forecast from any source I like :-).

What will be will be with our landscape plants at this, point since we've already had so many below freezing nights already. I just hope we don't end up with burst pipes anywhere. We have a new bbq island with a faucet and that didn't get any insulation. Maybe we should be putting c9s under the island...

Zone 9b (formerly listed as Zone 9a); Sunset 14

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Low of 27 this morning for about 5 minutes....now at 34 under clear skies.....the bubble wrap may come off today....

John Case

Brentwood CA

Owner and curator of Hana Keu Garden

USDA Zone 9b more or less, Sunset Zone 14 in winter 9 in summer

"Its always exciting the first time you save the world. Its a real thrill!"

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We stayed above freezing with a low of 33.4F last night. So far, just superficial damage to heliconia and banana leaves from the previous night's low of 32F.

Jim in Los Altos, CA  SF Bay Area 37.34N- 122.13W- 190' above sea level

zone 10a/9b

sunset zone 16

300+ palms, 90+ species in the ground

Las Palmas Design

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Las Palmas Design & Associates

Elegant Homes and Gardens

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Here are my morning lows for this cold spell so far:

Tue 3 34ºF

Wed 4 28ºF First frost/sub 32º night of fall.

Thu 5 27ºF Dropped below freezing at sunset until dawn.

Fri 6 28ºF Again, freezing at sunset.

So far a typical five year freeze. Other foothill (<3500' el.) lows mostly 20-25ºF with some cold valleys reaching 15-20º.

Of some of my temperature litmus plants, Cannas mostly burnt, hedychiums showing slight damage typical of 27ºF, Salvia involucrata which burns at 25-26ºF still undamaged. Aloe arborescens (trouble @ 22ºF) still fine.

With the cold advective air over NorCal, the foothill and Sac valley lows have been comparable although it freezes beginning at dark in the hills but usually around midnight in the lowlands. There are some really nasty cold pockets in the Sac valley with some stations in the high teens similar to the foothill valleys perched at higher elevations. With advective cold like this being on a hill versus in a sheltered hollow can make as much difference as overall elevation. Exposure to mixing north winds is what always saves me at my spot but the ground heat is diminishing now four days into this cold.

Real problem coming Sat, Sun, Mon mornings with the next cold air mass arriving after the next front with snow to 500' el. and possible down to valley floor. Sat high of 35ºF and 16ºF low predicted at weather.gov but I think my microclimate should be closer to 19-20ºF, I hope. Quite possibly going to be a 10-20 year magnitude freeze.

We shall see.

Poor Portland, OR has been under freezing day and night for a four day stretch. Should be a lot of cold damage reports/data to come.

Probably time to start a tropical-real estate/relocating/where is climate utopia/arctic-refugee topic soon.

Anyone tuned in to the Joaquin Valley citrus growers' concerns about this freeze?

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Local WUnderground station measured 23 last night. I think we were slightly above that. Channel 2 news has this for the 5-day forecast lows inland: 22 (probably recorded this a.m.) with rain starting in the evening and running thru Sat a.m., snow likely on the bay hills, low Sat 35, then 34, 22, 24. Can't really find a future forecast from any source I like :-).

What will be will be with our landscape plants at this, point since we've already had so many below freezing nights already. I just hope we don't end up with burst pipes anywhere. We have a new bbq island with a faucet and that didn't get any insulation. Maybe we should be putting c9s under the island...

Set up C9s or consider placing a small electric heater in the cabinet just in case. Or turn on the faucet to a slow drip. That will keep water moving through the pipes so it has less of a chance of freezing. Can you shut off water to the faucet altogether? If so, do it and turn on the faucet to drain the pipes. The important thing is not to leave them full of water that freezes and cracks them.

If you decide to wing it but the pipes freeze solid (which could take hours at temps in the 20s), don't try to thaw them yourself. If they are cracked and you try to thaw them, they can burst and shoot water everywhere. Turn off the water to the frozen pipes and let them thaw on their own. Check for leaks and fix as needed.

When I lived in the Washington DC area frozen pipes required several nights of 5-10 degrees and days below freezing, then highs to mid-30s for exploding waterworks in homes throughout the area. At home, we would open the kitchen cabinet that held the main water line, then turn the faucet to a slow drip to keep water moving. The central heat kept water entering the house above freezing so our pipes didn't freeze and burst.

Meg

Palms of Victory I shall wear

Cape Coral (It's Just Paradise)
Florida
Zone 10A on the Isabelle Canal
Elevation: 15 feet

I'd like to be under the sea in an octopus' garden in the shade.

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Thanks for the info Meg. We had a few minor things to still get done on our new patio structures that didn't happen before now and so never got the "how to" winterize talk with the contractor. Never thought about it until last night. It's suppose to rain tonight, so above freezing, and after the rain I think we'll be checking out what to do underneath tomorrow before the temps drop again. Hubby has some left over pipe insulation foam he can add as well. And now that you mentioned it I do remember being told they put in a water shut off value underneath somewhere so will look for it and then open the faucet. They installed electrical with in-use covers underneath the island as well so know we can run lights on a timer there. I'm assuming the gas to the bbq doesn't require shutting off at the value as I know many people will still bbq in the cold.

Our palms all look pretty great so happy about that. Noticed today that a number of the queens in our area have browned leaflets already. We're getting our backyard lighting put in in a few weeks but since they are all LED fixtures will unfortuntely be of no use in protecting plants.

Zone 9b (formerly listed as Zone 9a); Sunset 14

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Here are my morning lows for this cold spell so far:

Tue 3 34ºF

Wed 4 28ºF First frost/sub 32º night of fall.

Thu 5 27ºF Dropped below freezing at sunset until dawn.

Fri 6 28ºF Again, freezing at sunset.

So far a typical five year freeze. Other foothill (<3500' el.) lows mostly 20-25ºF with some cold valleys reaching 15-20º.

Of some of my temperature litmus plants, Cannas mostly burnt, hedychiums showing slight damage typical of 27ºF, Salvia involucrata which burns at 25-26ºF still undamaged. Aloe arborescens (trouble @ 22ºF) still fine.

With the cold advective air over NorCal, the foothill and Sac valley lows have been comparable although it freezes beginning at dark in the hills but usually around midnight in the lowlands. There are some really nasty cold pockets in the Sac valley with some stations in the high teens similar to the foothill valleys perched at higher elevations. With advective cold like this being on a hill versus in a sheltered hollow can make as much difference as overall elevation. Exposure to mixing north winds is what always saves me at my spot but the ground heat is diminishing now four days into this cold.

Real problem coming Sat, Sun, Mon mornings with the next cold air mass arriving after the next front with snow to 500' el. and possible down to valley floor. Sat high of 35ºF and 16ºF low predicted at weather.gov but I think my microclimate should be closer to 19-20ºF, I hope. Quite possibly going to be a 10-20 year magnitude freeze.

We shall see.

Poor Portland, OR has been under freezing day and night for a four day stretch. Should be a lot of cold damage reports/data to come.

Probably time to start a tropical-real estate/relocating/where is climate utopia/arctic-refugee topic soon.

Anyone tuned in to the Joaquin Valley citrus growers' concerns about this freeze?

Thanks for the heads up, I looked at the GFS, and I wish I didn't. This looks horrible, much worse than what we just went through. Please be wrong! best to stay tuned to forecasts at least until Tuesday.

Saturday, note the pool of extemely cold air over Western Canada:

mos_gfs_min_2d.gif

Sunday looks like the cold is moving West:

mos_gfs_min_3d.gif

And if that wasn't bad enough, now take a look at Monday Morning:

mos_gfs_min_4d.gif

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Here are my morning lows for this cold spell so far:

Tue 3 34ºF

Wed 4 28ºF First frost/sub 32º night of fall.

Thu 5 27ºF Dropped below freezing at sunset until dawn.

Fri 6 28ºF Again, freezing at sunset.

So far a typical five year freeze. Other foothill (<3500' el.) lows mostly 20-25ºF with some cold valleys reaching 15-20º.

Of some of my temperature litmus plants, Cannas mostly burnt, hedychiums showing slight damage typical of 27ºF, Salvia involucrata which burns at 25-26ºF still undamaged. Aloe arborescens (trouble @ 22ºF) still fine.

With the cold advective air over NorCal, the foothill and Sac valley lows have been comparable although it freezes beginning at dark in the hills but usually around midnight in the lowlands. There are some really nasty cold pockets in the Sac valley with some stations in the high teens similar to the foothill valleys perched at higher elevations. With advective cold like this being on a hill versus in a sheltered hollow can make as much difference as overall elevation. Exposure to mixing north winds is what always saves me at my spot but the ground heat is diminishing now four days into this cold.

Real problem coming Sat, Sun, Mon mornings with the next cold air mass arriving after the next front with snow to 500' el. and possible down to valley floor. Sat high of 35ºF and 16ºF low predicted at weather.gov but I think my microclimate should be closer to 19-20ºF, I hope. Quite possibly going to be a 10-20 year magnitude freeze.

We shall see.

Poor Portland, OR has been under freezing day and night for a four day stretch. Should be a lot of cold damage reports/data to come.

Probably time to start a tropical-real estate/relocating/where is climate utopia/arctic-refugee topic soon.

Anyone tuned in to the Joaquin Valley citrus growers' concerns about this freeze?

Thanks for the heads up, I looked at the GFS, and I wish I didn't. This looks horrible, much worse than what we just went through. Please be wrong! best to stay tuned to forecasts at least until Tuesday.

Saturday, note the pool of extemely cold air over Western Canada:

mos_gfs_min_2d.gif

Sunday looks like the cold is moving West:

And if that wasn't bad enough, now take a look at Monday Morning:

Axel, my zip is 95765 and NOAA says for the next 3 days: 18, 17, 19. This has to be wrong... What do you think? Thur night they predicted 26/27, but ended up at 32. Even the horrible 2007 was only 22 on a single night. This is hard for me to believe.. But if it has a chance of happening, I have MAJOR issues and need to take proper action to keep stuff alive. Sucks to drop 2 zones in a winter :( why me. I'd like to see the 10a guys taste 9a. Same as me 9b -> 8b lol

Edited by enigma99
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Derrick, currently, models aren't doing a good job at predicting what is going on, so whatever temperature forecasts you see aren't going to be very accurate, could be better, could be worse. The best is to stay tuned to the NWS. For Rocklin, you should monitor both the Sacramento office and the Eureka office, see links below. 850mb temps are supposed to drop to -7C over the next two days, that would translate into some pretty cold temperatures at Rocklin's elevation if skies clear and winds are calm. If the upper atmosphere decouples from the lower boundary, it means no winds, and temperatures will drop like a rock.
the current situation is that the East Pacific high is blocking the storms from moving in from the West and its eatern boundary is the Western side of the jet stream. The jet sream is plowing straight North-South, in fact, yesterday it was centered over the Salinas Valley going straight down the valley. Even the tiniest shift in the jet stream is going to make a big difference in temperatures. The more forgiving models are showing the ridge nudging in from the West and pushing the cold air more Eastward. The less optimistic models give more Westward drier cold air intrusion. The model shown above is the GFS, which is notoriously cold, often too cold. The ECMWF is predicting more of a push eastward and has milder temperatures.
Hard freeze warnings are in effect in all of Central and Northern California for Sunday and Monday Morning, the only exception at this point is San Francisco. My advice is take the freeze warnings seriously and protect anything you're really attached to. Even if it doesn't get to 19F, at your elevation the potential for a convective freeze, i.e. wind with temps below freezing is much higher and will do more damage than a purely radiational freeze.
Edit: for what it's worth, the Monterey office is going with the high nudging Eastward, so a strong inversion layer will kick in over Sunday, so theoretically Rocklin will be warmer and Sacramento colder. The Southern California offices are doing the same, calling for a Santa Ana event after Sunday. So for you, the threat of a major freeze may only be tonite into tomorrow Morning. I would just recommend reading the forecast discussions to determine how much you should do.
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Remaining cautiously optimistic. Thanks Axel for the update.

Jim in Los Altos, CA  SF Bay Area 37.34N- 122.13W- 190' above sea level

zone 10a/9b

sunset zone 16

300+ palms, 90+ species in the ground

Las Palmas Design

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Las Palmas Design & Associates

Elegant Homes and Gardens

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Thanks for all of that it is a big help. Right now it is 45F at a 39 dewpoint at noon... Cold but i would think 19 is a stretch for tonight with a dewpoint like that. Thoughts?

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nice to have a real pro on the board.,...thanks axel!

Thanks for the compliment. But better go with the real pros at the National Weather Service, I've found that reading the NWS forecast discussions on a daily basis really contributes to learning how trustworthy any exact forecast actually is. The general public wants a black and white temperature and precipitation forecast. Unfortunately, a lot of the time, that's not possible but weather offices use statistics to come up with an approximation that sometimes is way off. So reading what the pros say is part of my daily Morning reading at breakfast because meteorology is something that interests me very much.

Remaining cautiously optimistic. Thanks Axel for the update.

Ha ha, as if you had anything to worry about, Jim. Not only is your garden pretty compact but it's packed with smart overhead canopy. It would take a freeze in the low 20's to kill off even just a tiny fraction of your tropicals. Then add the fact that you're in a sweet spot and you've got one hell of an urban heat island to the North and East of you. I can't say that for the Santa Cruz Mountains, it's all forest as far as the eye can see.

Thanks for all of that it is a big help. Right now it is 45F at a 39 dewpoint at noon... Cold but i would think 19 is a stretch for tonight with a dewpoint like that. Thoughts?

Derrick, check the dewpoint, wind conditions and the temperature 1 hour after sunset. That's your best indicator. The dewpoint can drop overnight depending on the direction of the airflow, and the winds usually drop after midnight.

Rocklin has the following temp forecasts:

Accuweather; 22F

Weather Channel: 20F

Wunderground: 24F

So you're looking at a spread between 20F and 24F as far as forecasts go. You're probably gonna go down a half zone from 9b to 9a but not 8b. I have no idea what you grow, but any 9b plants will probably need protection tonite and tomorrow. This freeze is dropping me half a zone too, I usually plant half a zone down because I've lived through 3 catastrophic freezes already, but I have some exceptions. I am protecting all that stuff.

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nice to have a real pro on the board.,...thanks axel!

Thanks for the compliment. But better go with the real pros at the National Weather Service, I've found that reading the NWS forecast discussions on a daily basis really contributes to learning how trustworthy any exact forecast actually is. The general public wants a black and white temperature and precipitation forecast. Unfortunately, a lot of the time, that's not possible but weather offices use statistics to come up with an approximation that sometimes is way off. So reading what the pros say is part of my daily Morning reading at breakfast because meteorology is something that interests me very much.

Remaining cautiously optimistic. Thanks Axel for the update.

Ha ha, as if you had anything to worry about, Jim. Not only is your garden pretty compact but it's packed with smart overhead canopy. It would take a freeze in the low 20's to kill off even just a tiny fraction of your tropicals. Then add the fact that you're in a sweet spot and you've got one hell of an urban heat island to the North and East of you. I can't say that for the Santa Cruz Mountains, it's all forest as far as the eye can see.

Thanks for all of that it is a big help. Right now it is 45F at a 39 dewpoint at noon... Cold but i would think 19 is a stretch for tonight with a dewpoint like that. Thoughts?

Derrick, check the dewpoint, wind conditions and the temperature 1 hour after sunset. That's your best indicator. The dewpoint can drop overnight depending on the direction of the airflow, and the winds usually drop after midnight.

Rocklin has the following temp forecasts:

Accuweather; 22F

Weather Channel: 20F

Wunderground: 24F

So you're looking at a spread between 20F and 24F as far as forecasts go. You're probably gonna go down a half zone from 9b to 9a but not 8b. I have no idea what you grow, but any 9b plants will probably need protection tonite and tomorrow. This freeze is dropping me half a zone too, I usually plant half a zone down because I've lived through 3 catastrophic freezes already, but I have some exceptions. I am protecting all that stuff.

Axel, It's not outright death I'm concerned about. It's damage. I know it's temporary but I don't like looking at burned foliage no matter how minor. Right now it's just banana leaves and heliconia to a small degree and lots of top burn on my big schefflera (umbrella tree). Right now it's 51F with a stiff North wind blowing.

Jim in Los Altos, CA  SF Bay Area 37.34N- 122.13W- 190' above sea level

zone 10a/9b

sunset zone 16

300+ palms, 90+ species in the ground

Las Palmas Design

Facebook Page

Las Palmas Design & Associates

Elegant Homes and Gardens

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nice to have a real pro on the board.,...thanks axel!

Thanks for the compliment. But better go with the real pros at the National Weather Service, I've found that reading the NWS forecast discussions on a daily basis really contributes to learning how trustworthy any exact forecast actually is. The general public wants a black and white temperature and precipitation forecast. Unfortunately, a lot of the time, that's not possible but weather offices use statistics to come up with an approximation that sometimes is way off. So reading what the pros say is part of my daily Morning reading at breakfast because meteorology is something that interests me very much.

Remaining cautiously optimistic. Thanks Axel for the update.

Ha ha, as if you had anything to worry about, Jim. Not only is your garden pretty compact but it's packed with smart overhead canopy. It would take a freeze in the low 20's to kill off even just a tiny fraction of your tropicals. Then add the fact that you're in a sweet spot and you've got one hell of an urban heat island to the North and East of you. I can't say that for the Santa Cruz Mountains, it's all forest as far as the eye can see.

Thanks for all of that it is a big help. Right now it is 45F at a 39 dewpoint at noon... Cold but i would think 19 is a stretch for tonight with a dewpoint like that. Thoughts?

Derrick, check the dewpoint, wind conditions and the temperature 1 hour after sunset. That's your best indicator. The dewpoint can drop overnight depending on the direction of the airflow, and the winds usually drop after midnight.

Rocklin has the following temp forecasts:

Accuweather; 22F

Weather Channel: 20F

Wunderground: 24F

So you're looking at a spread between 20F and 24F as far as forecasts go. You're probably gonna go down a half zone from 9b to 9a but not 8b. I have no idea what you grow, but any 9b plants will probably need protection tonite and tomorrow. This freeze is dropping me half a zone too, I usually plant half a zone down because I've lived through 3 catastrophic freezes already, but I have some exceptions. I am protecting all that stuff.

Axel, It's not outright death I'm concerned about. It's damage. I know it's temporary but I don't like looking at burned foliage no matter how minor. Right now it's just banana leaves and heliconia to a small degree and lots of top burn on my big schefflera (umbrella tree). Right now it's 51F with a stiff North wind blowing.

53F and it sure is blowing hard, pray it keeps blowing all night. We got an inch of rain last night, I actually covered my bismarckia last night to protect them from rain in order to avoid any moisture getting into them before the next set of freezes. However, the dewpoint has already dropped off to 29F and it's early afternoon. Stuff is drying up as if it's the Sahara out there. Down to 40% humidity, this is looking much, much worse than the last cold air. I just checked Weston Road up above 1,000 feet, it's 42F up there.

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There's a very large cloud bank just to the west that seems to be breaking through the high pressure on the west coast. I'm keeping an eye on the satellite progression shots and hoping this trend continues tonight.

Jim in Los Altos, CA  SF Bay Area 37.34N- 122.13W- 190' above sea level

zone 10a/9b

sunset zone 16

300+ palms, 90+ species in the ground

Las Palmas Design

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Las Palmas Design & Associates

Elegant Homes and Gardens

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Good luck all :) I still have green banana leafs left but tonight will finish things up.

Dew point is 30.3 so I think its going to be bad but not close to the teens.

But honestly I don't care. I will have 1500watt x2 going and 3 48,000 btu gas heaters. Whatever it throws at me i'm ready

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Temps in the teens?

Nahhhh... Its been an average winter here.

Chilly today, but dewpoints aren't too bad.

My low so far this winter was 28f, other than the usual toasted king palm leaves and a lil burn on a leaf or two on my d. baronii, my palms all look good.

I don't cover anything.

But I do cram a lot into a small space so that they create a large mass .... harder for the cold to penetrate .

Modesto, CA USDA 9b

July/August average 95f/63f

Dec/Jan average 55f/39f

Average lowest winter temp 27f

Record low temp 18f

Record high temp 113f

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Temps in the teens?

Nahhhh... Its been an average winter here.

Chilly today, but dewpoints aren't too bad.

My low so far this winter was 28f, other than the usual toasted king palm leaves and a lil burn on a leaf or two on my d. baronii, my palms all look good.

I don't cover anything.

But I do cram a lot into a small space so that they create a large mass .... harder for the cold to penetrate .

Your little cube of a backyard packed with tropicals does need some real cold to penetrate.

You may be experiencing an average Winter, but this is not average for us. I've lived here a long time and for us this is a major freeze event.

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Definitely not as cold as 2007 for me. Lowest during this event was 36.5 degrees for Huntington Beach. That was this morning.

Huntington Beach, CA

USDA Zone 10a/10b

Sunset Zone 24

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Froze solid 8 hours last night, bottomed out at 28.8F, and it's not over here, next two nights continue to indicate freeze warnings. Supposed to be worse tonite due to lower dewpoints.

 .DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:03 AM PST SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 UPDATES PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING. WILL UPDATE THE FREEZE WARNING
 SHORTLY TO ALLOW THIS MORNINGS PRODUCT TO EXPIRE AND NEW WARNING
 TO GO INTO EFFECT AGAIN TONIGHT FROM 10 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 9 AM
 MONDAY MORNING. 
 
 HIGH CLOUDS FROM A SYSTEM OFFSHORE ARE STREAMING OVER THE CENTRAL
 BAY AND WILL KEEP WARMING IN CHECK THROUGH MIDDAY. IN GENERAL
 LOOKING FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WHERE
 SKIES STAY MOSTLY SUNNY.
 
 SET UP LOOKS BETTER TONIGHT FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES AS DRIER
 AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS
 TO BE MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE HILLS THAT COULD KEEP THE
 BOUNDARY LAYER MORE WELL MIXED. HOWEVER...IN GENERAL EXPECT THE
 WINDS TO SET-UP ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION ABOVE 2500 FEET
 ALLOWING MOST VALLEYS TO DECOUPLE LEADING TO ANOTHER VERY COLD
 NIGHT. NORTH BAY VALLEY LOWS FROM 20-25 DEGREES COULD BE COMMON BY
 MONDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS FROM 26-32 ACROSS THE
 ENTIRE DISTRICT.  
 
 HISTORICALLY SPEAKING THE XMAS TIME COLD OUTBREAK OF 1990 IS OFTEN
 REMEMBERED BUT IN LOOKING AT RECORD DATA OVER THE LAST WEEK ITS
 BECOME CLEAR THAT EARLY DEC 1972 WAS A VERY COLD MONTH AS WELL AS MANY
 OF THE RECORDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THIS MONTH DATE BACK TO DEC
 OF 1972. ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MANY RECORD LOWS FROM THE
 WEST COAST ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE CENTRAL US DATE BACK TO DEC OF
 1972. IN CONTRAST THOUGH THAT WAS A STRONG EL NINO WINTER WHILE
 ALL SIGNS POINT TO THIS WINTER AS BEING ENSO NEUTRAL.
 
 ANYWAY WILL LIKELY NEED TO HOIST ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZE WARNINGS
 MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH NO REAL CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT
 LOWS FORECAST...PERHAPS 1-3 DEGREES WARMER. WILL LOOK OVER 12Z
 DATA BEFORE MAKING FINAL CALL. WE MAY NEED TO PULL BACK ON AREAL
 COVERAGE WITH COAST AND BAYSIDE SPOTS PERHAPS NOT TOTALLY
 VERIFYING. TEMPS WARM BY 3-5 DEGREES FOR WEDS MORNING BUT
 RELATIVELY SPEAKING STILL COLD WITH TEMPS AROUND FREEZING MANY
 AREAS. ANY THREAT OF WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS SHOULD BE DONE BY
 WEDS MORNING WITH AIRMASS WARMING.
 
 OUTSIDE OF THE COLD NIGHTS...AFTERNOONS ARE LOOKING NICER AND
 NICER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MID 50S FOR MUCH OF
 THIS WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS (ASSUMING NO TULE FOG FORMS IN THE
 CENTRAL VALLEY AND ENTERS THE DELTA).
 
 ASIDE FROM ALL THE TALK OF COLD ITS NOW DECEMBER AND WHAT SHOULD
 BE THE START OF THE WET SEASON. THE MODELS ARE PRETTY DRY FOR THE
 NEXT 10 DAYS. THE GFS HINTS AT SOME POSSIBLE NORTH BAY SHOWERS
 FRIDAY BUT THAT`S DUBIOUS AT THIS POINT. THE 240 HOUR ECMWF IS DRY
 WITH A STRONG RIDGE TO OUR WEST. LOOKED AT THE GFS OUT THROUGH
 XMAS EVE AND IT LOOKS DRY AS WELL. WILL NEED TO GET THE RIDGE TO
 RETROGRADE TO BRING SOME STORMS THROUGH. THE RAIN WE RECEIVED
 FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE ALL WE SEE FOR AWHILE.
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Low here was 33F. Tonight will likely be a bit colder but so far this hasn't been much of a freeze event in my location, just one night at 32F (Thursday morning). Prolonged chilly temperatures and colder soil will lead to yellowing on temperature sensitive plants but, so far, deep green's the scene.

Jim in Los Altos, CA  SF Bay Area 37.34N- 122.13W- 190' above sea level

zone 10a/9b

sunset zone 16

300+ palms, 90+ species in the ground

Las Palmas Design

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Las Palmas Design & Associates

Elegant Homes and Gardens

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Low here was 33F. Tonight will likely be a bit colder but so far this hasn't been much of a freeze event in my location, just one night at 32F (Thursday morning). prolonged chilly temperatures and colder soil will lead to yellowing on temperature sensitive plants but, so far, deep green's the scene.

Even Weston Road last night was at 30F. We're getting hammered here.

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Low here was 33F. Tonight will likely be a bit colder but so far this hasn't been much of a freeze event in my location, just one night at 32F (Thursday morning). prolonged chilly temperatures and colder soil will lead to yellowing on temperature sensitive plants but, so far, deep green's the scene.

Even Weston Road last night was at 30F. We're getting hammered here.

Well, we may all get hammered tonight. :badday:

Jim in Los Altos, CA  SF Bay Area 37.34N- 122.13W- 190' above sea level

zone 10a/9b

sunset zone 16

300+ palms, 90+ species in the ground

Las Palmas Design

Facebook Page

Las Palmas Design & Associates

Elegant Homes and Gardens

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Share on other sites

Low here was 33F. Tonight will likely be a bit colder but so far this hasn't been much of a freeze event in my location, just one night at 32F (Thursday morning). prolonged chilly temperatures and colder soil will lead to yellowing on temperature sensitive plants but, so far, deep green's the scene.

Even Weston Road last night was at 30F. We're getting hammered here.

Well, we may all get hammered tonight. :badday:

Yes, take a look at this, they're saying we're going to get close to 1990 records tomorrow Morning. Dewpoints are way down and temps only running from the low to mid 40's. Running at 40% humidity under totally calm skies. Temps in the 50's here but that's because my lower garden is wind sheltered (hence why it has been so cold.) This is pretty alarmist stuff, I sure hope they're wrong.

 IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY MORNING WILL BE THE
 COLDEST BUT WITH ONLY 1-4 DEGREES OF WARMING FOR TUESDAY MORNING.
 EXAMPLES OF SOME OF THE EXTREME MOS DATA WERE LOOKING AT SHOW A
 FORECAST LOW OF 17 AT NAPA AIRPORT ON MONDAY MORNING AND 11 AT
 PASO ROBLES (JUST OUTSIDE OUR CWA BUT INDICATIVE OF POTENTIAL COLD
 IN THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY). IN THE DEC OF 1990 COLD SPELL
 PASO ROBLES GOT DOWN TO 8 SO WERE LOOKING AT SOME PRETTY HISTORIC
 COLD POTENTIAL.
 
 HISTORICALLY SPEAKING THE XMAS TIME COLD OUTBREAK OF 1990 IS OFTEN
 REMEMBERED BUT IN LOOKING AT RECORD DATA OVER THE LAST WEEK ITS
 BECOME CLEAR THAT EARLY DEC 1972 WAS A VERY COLD MONTH AS WELL AS MANY
 OF THE RECORDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THIS MONTH DATE BACK TO DEC
 OF 1972. ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MANY RECORD LOWS FROM THE
 WEST COAST ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE CENTRAL US DATE BACK TO DEC OF
 1972. IN CONTRAST THOUGH THAT WAS A STRONG EL NINO WINTER WHILE
 ALL SIGNS POINT TO THIS WINTER AS BEING ENSO NEUTRAL.
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40 and 25 dewpoint. Light NW winds... It won't take long to drop below 30 tonight. Good news -- We'll be in the 60s in about a week.

Edited by enigma99
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Ouch. Pretty rough stretch for early December here.

Last four mornings 28,24,23,29 per Weather Channel and more to come.

C9s and frost bankets out.

Unprotected King foliage is brown.

Got a few great blooms on an Angel's trumpet before it got toasted.

A Stictocardia went from ready to explode with blooms to dead overnight.

Glad I followed the advice of Dick Douglas a few years ago and planted more truly hardy palms.

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I'll be there in 2 days. Time for that yuck to leave.

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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