Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
trioderob

Oct Stock Market Discussion..............

Recommended Posts

redant

Guys-

I have to say, although I havent posted in these threads, they have provided some entertainment! We have characters in this play each filling a role flawlessly. This is Emmy type stuff :-)

On a more germaine note-----

What type of returns are you active traders seeing?

I confess to a hands off lazy mans approach (so I just use index funds, and as time has gone on ive moved to pretty much just one). This year its up 13% and some change and 9.7% since inception (1985). I'm content with this I suppose since there is not a lot of risk. But, I have to wonder how much better might one do with a more active approach?

What index funds are you in? I too have index funds and I am up over 24% year to date. I am 100% stocks so if you have bonds that would explain the difference. The primary factor in how a fund performs over time is the fees they charge. Index funds have the lowest fees and will out perform almost all managed funds over a long period of time. Also most active stock traders will underperform the index as well (except Rob). My advice would be to keep doing what you are doing, and look for the lowest fees you can find in your investment options.

Index funds are clearly the best choice for 99% of the population and I love them, but I'm a trader at heart and need some action so I do other things as well. As Arron stated Stick with what your doing Larry, it's the best option. I'm early retired so I need the mental stimulation :mrlooney: .

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Bags

Bags-

The primary index fund I have been using is VGSTX (Vanguard Star). I initially used it for my daughters college fund, then thought......looks good enough for everything :-) It not a sexy fund or one that's going to go up 100% in a year, but its not likely to go down 100% either!

It looks like it is 70% stock and 30% bonds and has a long track record of success. The fees are .35% which is relatively low.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
spockvr6

Bags-

The primary index fund I have been using is VGSTX (Vanguard Star). I initially used it for my daughters college fund, then thought......looks good enough for everything :-) It not a sexy fund or one that's going to go up 100% in a year, but its not likely to go down 100% either!

It looks like it is 70% stock and 30% bonds and has a long track record of success. The fees are .35% which is relatively low

Heres a link to the fund profile. As this is a fund of funds, the breakdown is other Vanguard funds in various ratios. The 60/40 stock/bond split might be on the conservative side for someone my age (41) but overall it seems like a good middle of the road fund that, for me at least, is one I dont lose sleep over.

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0056&FundIntExt=INT

Product summary

This balanced fund is invested 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds. It offers investors exposure to eleven underlying actively managed Vanguard funds—including domestic and international stock funds and U.S. bond funds—each with its own distinct investment approach. It may be considered a “one fund option” for investors looking for broad diversification across asset classes who can tolerate moderate market risk that comes from the volatility of the stock and bond markets.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
spockvr6

Guys-

I have to say, although I havent posted in these threads, they have provided some entertainment! We have characters in this play each filling a role flawlessly. This is Emmy type stuff :-)

On a more germaine note-----

What type of returns are you active traders seeing?

I confess to a hands off lazy mans approach (so I just use index funds, and as time has gone on ive moved to pretty much just one). This year its up 13% and some change and 9.7% since inception (1985). I'm content with this I suppose since there is not a lot of risk. But, I have to wonder how much better might one do with a more active approach?

What index funds are you in? I too have index funds and I am up over 24% year to date. I am 100% stocks so if you have bonds that would explain the difference. The primary factor in how a fund performs over time is the fees they charge. Index funds have the lowest fees and will out perform almost all managed funds over a long period of time. Also most active stock traders will underperform the index as well (except Rob). My advice would be to keep doing what you are doing, and look for the lowest fees you can find in your investment options.

Index funds are clearly the best choice for 99% of the population and I love them, but I'm a trader at heart and need some action so I do other things as well. As Arron stated Stick with what your doing Larry, it's the best option. I'm early retired so I need the mental stimulation :mrlooney: .

My last actual stock purchases (non-mutual funds) was in late 2008. At that time, the thought crossed my mind........Hmmmmm.....GM and Ford are in rough shape.....but these guys arent going anywhere anytime soon. They are too big a fixture. And, their stock prices had plumeted.

So, I bought some GM stock for my wife and I and some Ford for my daughter's UTMA account. I had no rhyme or reason for picking one for my wife and I amd one for my daughter. I just guessed.

As usual, the kid comes out smelling like a rose! She bought Ford at $1.XX a share and its now over $17. I figure she can hang onto this one for the duration and use it for some fun money (in the back of my mind its earmarked for her first car).

As for my purchase in GM.........well, lets not talk about that one!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
redant

Bags-

The primary index fund I have been using is VGSTX (Vanguard Star). I initially used it for my daughters college fund, then thought......looks good enough for everything :-) It not a sexy fund or one that's going to go up 100% in a year, but its not likely to go down 100% either!

It looks like it is 70% stock and 30% bonds and has a long track record of success. The fees are .35% which is relatively low

Heres a link to the fund profile. As this is a fund of funds, the breakdown is other Vanguard funds in various ratios. The 60/40 stock/bond split might be on the conservative side for someone my age (41) but overall it seems like a good middle of the road fund that, for me at least, is one I dont lose sleep over.

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0056&FundIntExt=INT

Product summary

This balanced fund is invested 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds. It offers investors exposure to eleven underlying actively managed Vanguard funds—including domestic and international stock funds and U.S. bond funds—each with its own distinct investment approach. It may be considered a “one fund option” for investors looking for broad diversification across asset classes who can tolerate moderate market risk that comes from the volatility of the stock and bond markets.

Personally I would not have 40% of my portfolio in a bond fund at this point in life. The great bull run in bonds is most likely over and IF (concentrate on the if part please) IF bond yeilds do rise as everyone expects it will take just a small rise to hammer the you know what out of your bond part of the portfolio. Only my thoughts, not investment advise.

Edited by redant

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
spockvr6

Bags-

The primary index fund I have been using is VGSTX (Vanguard Star). I initially used it for my daughters college fund, then thought......looks good enough for everything :-) It not a sexy fund or one that's going to go up 100% in a year, but its not likely to go down 100% either!

It looks like it is 70% stock and 30% bonds and has a long track record of success. The fees are .35% which is relatively low

Heres a link to the fund profile. As this is a fund of funds, the breakdown is other Vanguard funds in various ratios. The 60/40 stock/bond split might be on the conservative side for someone my age (41) but overall it seems like a good middle of the road fund that, for me at least, is one I dont lose sleep over.

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0056&FundIntExt=INT

Product summary

This balanced fund is invested 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds. It offers investors exposure to eleven underlying actively managed Vanguard funds—including domestic and international stock funds and U.S. bond funds—each with its own distinct investment approach. It may be considered a “one fund option” for investors looking for broad diversification across asset classes who can tolerate moderate market risk that comes from the volatility of the stock and bond markets.

Personally I would not have 40% of my portfolio in a bond fund at this point in life. The great bull run in bonds is most likely over and IF (concentrate on the if part please) IF bond yeilds do rise as everyone expects it will take just a small rise to hammer the you know what out of your bond part of the portfolio. Only my thoughts, not investment advise.

I definitely hear you loud and clear on the bonds.........

For my work 401k, at one point (and for some time, from maybe 2009 to 2012) I had the majority in PIMCO Real Return (PRRIX) as it was semi-safe (when everything else stunk relatively).

But, it has shown some corrections this year, so Ive bailed somewhat (down to ~20% allocation). Im starting to wonder if even thats too high.......

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Bags

Larry,

Like Redant said 40% is pretty high at this point in your life (unless the money is for right now). I am 38 and like I said I have 100% stocks, but the stock and bond allocation is something everyone has to decide for themselves. One recommendation is 120 minus your age in stocks. The most important thing is to have a plan and stick to it. The worst thing is to jump in and out of investments based on assumptions of what is going to happen. Bonds might not look great now and I would not be over invested in them, but if the market crashes in the next few years and interest rates stay low anyone with bonds is going to feel pretty great about it.

Also the fund you are in is a managed fund and not an index fund. You could get a similar result by buying 60% total market index and 40% total bond index and pay less than .10% in fees. Of course if the fund is in a taxable account it is not worth paying capital gains taxes to move funds. Plus almost 10% return on your fund for over 25 years is a return any of us would be happy with.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
spockvr6

Bags-

True enough on it actually being managed. Truthfully, I never looked closely at all the funds that make up this fund to see if they were indexed or not :)

I suspect Ill stay this same conservative course for the duration and be happy with 9-10% average returns. By the time Im 107, I am sure I will have a wonderful nest egg and be all set for retirement! LOL

Actually.....I am hoping to be done by 55, but we shall see how that goes. A few years that go one way or the other, or a big bad long term bear may make that into the 107 referenced above :mrlooney: I know a number of folks who were "overexposed" during the last downturn and are still working today, although they did not plan on it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
redant

Tank I see FSLR going a little nuts today, you ever get back in?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
trioderob

it is not a good sign for oil prices to be plummeting.

have fun

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
tank

Tank I see FSLR going a little nuts today, you ever get back in?

No, got out for a little profit around 45 right before the debt ceiling deadline thinking I could get back in at a discount. Got to watch it continue to rise to the low 50s and now this jump. At least I didn't take a loss. Same for DDD. Both were incredibly strong over the last month :sick: .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
tank

Although in the stock picker game I kept both apparently and now I'm second place and raging up on you to compete for first!

Please insert a sarcastic tone to this statement.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
spockvr6

Although in the stock picker game I kept both apparently and now I'm second place and raging up on you to compete for first!

Please insert a sarcastic tone to this statement.

Where is the link to the stocker picker game?

I will be terrible at it, so I figured if I jumped into the game, I could provide one of the "bookends" and perhaps be a bad example for others.

Edited by spockvr6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Bags

You guys are crushing me in the stock picker game. Two of my picks are down over 10%. My index funds are up 7%. The good news is all of you are beating the S&P 500 so nice work

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
redant

Although in the stock picker game I kept both apparently and now I'm second place and raging up on you to compete for first!

Please insert a sarcastic tone to this statement.

I never would make a sarcastic remark about your picks, you have given me some interesting new ideas which I'm always looking for. One of them is even in my play portfolio as well, unfortunately it's not FSLR.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
tank

Although in the stock picker game I kept both apparently and now I'm second place and raging up on you to compete for first!

Please insert a sarcastic tone to this statement.

I never would make a sarcastic remark about your picks, you have given me some interesting new ideas which I'm always looking for. One of them is even in my play portfolio as well, unfortunately it's not FSLR.

I meant that I was being sarcastic. It would have been nice if I hadn't got cold feet on those two. Nice thing about the game is that you can get a feel for some of the stuff you would probably shy away from (at least I would), like the triple gold short etf DUST, etc.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
spockvr6

Quick question....by mistake I "spent" more than $100k. What is the difference between market value and portfolio value?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
spockvr6

You guys are crushing me in the stock picker game.

See, this is why I joined earlier this afternoon. Now, you will automatically move up a rung on the ladder.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
redant

Quick question....by mistake I "spent" more than $100k. What is the difference between market value and portfolio value?

You bought more then you had so they will charge you a margin rate, all make believe and I don't know what the rate is on that site. In essence the stocks you picked over your alloted 100k need to perform better then the amount the brokerage is charging you for the margin rate, otherwise it could end up a double whammy, paying for a loser and losing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
redant

Move on to November.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...