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September Stock Market Discussion

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Dypsisdean

ok redant - what % total up for the year if you are so smart - why not tell it like it is ???

after all its the bottom line that counts.

in fact all that matters is what % everyone is up for the year -everything else is just a bunch a "jibba jabba"

and redant - if my call was so easy - i assume you opened a massive leveraged short position ????

If you where playing in the http://www.palmtalk.org/forum/index.php?/topic/38484-fantasy-stock-picker-league/ you would see the answer was YES (in the make believe world where the gov doesn't take part of your cheese every time you liquidate) The problem is in the real world, a place I don't think you ever really placed a trade in it's not nearly that simple and the tax issues make it impossible to be flipping in and out of positions. I'm sure you know nothing about that never having placed a real trade. In the real world I have on the largest amount of protection I have ever had against my long term bullish posture. Managing a portfolio of stocks and bonds involves a lot more then just shouting out buy buy buy, sell sell sell.

I don't think Rob ever had a stock or position that he was up big on. He is scared out of a position within days. I am up 100% on several positions at the moment. If I sell now, I pay cap gains of 25%. That means on $10,000 worth of stock I will pay at least $1250. That is 12.5% of my position.

So, what do I do? The market could fall 10% and I still wouldn't lose that much. And if I sold, I would be out of a situation where I am getting more than a 5% dividend, at a preferred tax rate. So why take a 12.5% haircut, and be sitting here wondering where to put my money that can get me any kind of interest. Any money sitting on the sidelines is actually losing money. That is the real world.

And like redant, I will hedge at times, and I will adjust my exposure. For example, I am not margined at the moment. For me, that is not fully committed - because I am somewhat cautious - with some "dry powder" if I see an opportunity. But I would never sit 100% on the sidelines - that's a losing seat. And I would certainly have no qualms about shorting something I thought was at a top - Jesse would.

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trioderob

so what % total are you up for the year ?

it will help me digest how well your system works.

Edited by trioderob

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Bags

Redant nice work in the stock picker league. I see you are mostly out for this downturn and have taken the lead. I am staying long just like in real life. It would be a pure guess to speculate what is going to happen with the shutdown and I can not jump in and out like some do. I am hoping for another downturn as I am saving more than ever and still have 15 plus years till retirement.

Rob,

You could have played the game with us (still can) and show us just how good you are, but you didn't and like Redant said you have no credibility. You can try and sell us that you are up some great % for the year, but I am not buying. The tax implications alone are going to destroy your returns, and I would bet you have not beat the market anyways.

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trioderob

I am hoping for another downturn

that's just dumb.- unless you can do a "DEAN" type major top pick and short it all the way down.

you want the trend to be your friend

and you say that you don't think I made anything in the market this year ......... :rolleyes:

Edited by trioderob

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redant

Redant nice work in the stock picker league. I see you are mostly out for this downturn and have taken the lead. I am staying long just like in real life. It would be a pure guess to speculate what is going to happen with the shutdown and I can not jump in and out like some do. I am hoping for another downturn as I am saving more than ever and still have 15 plus years till retirement.

Rob,

You could have played the game with us (still can) and show us just how good you are, but you didn't and like Redant said you have no credibility. You can try and sell us that you are up some great % for the year, but I am not buying. The tax implications alone are going to destroy your returns, and I would bet you have not beat the market anyways.

Actually was very short coming into today in the game, liquidated many of those shorts today (look at trades done) as I think now a shutdown maybe priced in as a given and any progress could have a huge upside as the bears run for cover. But the game is far easier then the real world, no taxes to worry about, it's just a fantasy, just like Robs trades.

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trioderob

I think now a shutdown maybe priced in as a given and any progress could have a huge upside as the bears run for cover'

every uncle Joe and aunt Ethel is thinking your way - means it wont happen.

i predict much more down from here.

you should not have liquidated

lets see who is right.

Edited by trioderob

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redant

I think now a shutdown maybe priced in as a given and any progress could have a huge upside as the bears run for cover'

every uncle Joe and aunt Ethel is thinking your way - means it wont happen.

i predict much more down from here.

you should not have liquidated

lets see who is right.

I did this in the fantasy land, something you should be familiar with.

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trioderob

redant-

something interesting is happening now.

there is a "revolt" in the GOP going on.

they will cave in - and create a GOP civil war

"if the market goes up that's fine- if it goes down that's fine too"

- Dean

Edited by trioderob

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Bags

I am hoping for another downturn

that's just dumb.- unless you can do a "DEAN" type major top pick and short it all the way down.

you want the trend to be your friend

and you say that you don't think I made anything in the market this year ......... :rolleyes:

You think wanting to buy during a major downturn is dumb? A few bear markets early on in ones investing career are going to pay off huge in the long run.

I am sure you made money in the market this year as anyone could. You have to pay 40% or so taxes on your earnings because of short term capital gains taxes. I am up around 20% this year in a non taxable account. What % would you have to be up to match me? probably around 35% is that how much you are up?

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trioderob

buying during a major downturn is wonderful - wanting one to happen while you are in is another thing.

even if you are averaging in.

if i am wrong then buying into a market that is going up 30% a year and NEVER drops would be a bad thing

you tell me - is that better or worse than having it crash 90% and taking 10 years to get back to even ?

Edited by trioderob

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Dypsisdean

so what % total are you up for the year ?

it will help me digest how well your system works.

I'm up 80% so far, on target for my regular 100%/yr. - like the last 5 years.

I also caught a 1500 lb. tuna this morning, but you should have seen the one that got away.

How 'bout you? Can you beat that?

Still no answer.

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Dypsisdean

you tell me - is that better or worse than having it crash 90% and taking 10 years to get back to even ?

Come on Aaron, don't you see. Your way is a disaster if the market crashes 99% and takes 100 years to get back to even.

Never mind that the greatest "crash" of our lifetime was down 60% and took 4 years to get back. And really only spent 2 years in "scary" territory - down over 25%. The rest of the time it was barely down 20%.

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trioderob

I sure cant beat the coffee you guys have.

when i was in Kona to see the eclipse of the Sun in the 90s - had the best coffee ever over there.

funny story -

rented a large house and first night see a animal looking at me thru a window.

almost crapped my pants - end up it was a mongoose begging for food.

also opened the closet in the kitchen an a frikken orange gecko fell out

whats your guess - true or false story ?

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Dypsisdean

you want the trend to be your friend

Rob - you're confusing me. The trend has clearly been up for the last three years - the 50 day and 200 day MA are still strongly up. This is the definition of an up trend. And you are right. You should embrace it as your friend, until it changes. So why have you abandoned your friend, the trend?

post-11-0-55040300-1380584763_thumb.png

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Dypsisdean

I sure cant beat the coffee you guys have.

when i was in Kona to see the eclipse of the Sun in the 90s - had the best coffee ever over there.

funny story -

rented a large house and first night see a animal looking at me thru a window.

almost crapped my pants - end up it was a mongoose begging for food.

also opened the closet in the kitchen an a frikken orange gecko fell out

whats your guess - true or false story ?

Doesn't even sound far out. :) Had turkeys on my lanai (along with their monstrous turds), a hawk swooping a chicken 6 ft from my feet, chased by a pig, goats and sheep passing through, birds in the house, etc. A friend just got chased out of the water onto the rocks by a 12 ft. tiger shark while scuba diving. Lots of wildlife around here.

But can't speak for the coffee, I may be the only one around here who doesn't drink the stuff.

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Bags

buying during a major downturn is wonderful - wanting one to happen while you are in is another thing.

even if you are averaging in.

if i am wrong then buying into a market that is going up 30% a year and NEVER drops would be a bad thing

you tell me - is that better or worse than having it crash 90% and taking 10 years to get back to even ?

Since one scenario is fantasy and one has and can happen I will take the 90% crash because the market would have to return more than 25% a year for 10 years to get back to even. Anyone who is investing in that time period is going to make a lot of money. Just like the last five years. The stock market is cyclical so if we can have another crash making a 15 year cyclical bear market followed by a 15 year bull market that would be a perfect scenario for me. Now is that dumb or is it just you?

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trioderob

Bags-

that's nonsense

the numbers only work out if you start investing at the bottom of the crash
if you are retiring at the time of the crash and have been putting money in for 35 years and it drops 65 % like it just did and you only have 35 % left - not so good

you could sell ice to an Eskimo.

I will no longer waste my time with you -good bye and good luck

Edited by trioderob

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redant

Bags-

that's nonsense

the numbers only work out if you start investing at the bottom of the crash

if you are retiring at the time of the crash and have been putting money in for 35 years and it drops 65 % like it just did and you only have 35 % left - not so good

you could sell ice to an Eskimo.

I will no longer waste my time with you -good bye and good luck

"I will no longer waste my time with you -good bye and good luck"

I'm not religous, but I'm praying this is true.. although they do have the best #$%@ coffee in HI. :mrlooney:

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Dypsisdean

if you are retiring at the time of the crash

Sometimes I wonder if Rob really reads any of this. I know I have mentioned several times that "if you are retiring at the time of the crash" - you are protected - because you don't have any money in the market - or at least any money that you will need in the next 5-10 years. Is that a difficult concept to remember?

Anyone who has money in the market that they might need within 10 years is playing with fire. You see Rob, you have not yet understood the difference between what you are talking about, and what Bags is talking about. Bags is investing. You are trading. One is guaranteed to make you money. The other is a very easy way to lose you money.

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Dypsisdean

although they do have the best #$%@ coffee in HI.

I have a friend who has a small farm in the heart of the Kona coffee belt that he inherited from his father. Everything is done by hand, and dried in the traditional way on the roof of the processing barn with a retractable cover for when it rains on many afternoons. It is then processed with equipment that is probably about 50-75 yrs old. Some of it run from the motors of jeeps the army left after World War 2. Before then it was all horses here. A couple of the bigger engines are some really cool engines I don't even know the name of - some really interesting machines he rebuilt with huge flywheels and only fire every third or fourth revolution. He worked at Boeing before retiring, and his father was a pilot that flew here on the old Pan Am airlines.

Anyway, it is roasted in the traditional way as well, and only ground right before brewing. The people that drink it rave. I think it is about $25/lb. But a very interesting step back into time. Here's the process, and you can order the coffee.

http://www.cuppakona.com/about.htm

And there is even a guest house there if you ever care to come visit and see some palms too. :)

http://www.cuppakona.com/cottage/index.html

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redant

although they do have the best #$%@ coffee in HI.

I have a friend who has a small farm in the heart of the Kona coffee belt that he inherited from his father. Everything is done by hand, and dried in the traditional way on the roof of the processing barn with a retractable cover for when it rains on many afternoons. It is then processed with equipment that is probably about 50-75 yrs old. Some of it run from the motors of jeeps the army left after World War 2. Before then it was all horses here. A couple of the bigger engines are some really cool engines I don't even know the name of - some really interesting machines he rebuilt with huge flywheels and only fire every third or fourth revolution. He worked at Boeing before retiring, and his father was a pilot that flew here on the old Pan Am airlines.

Anyway, it is roasted in the traditional way as well, and only ground right before brewing. The people that drink it rave. I think it is about $25/lb. But a very interesting step back into time. Here's the process, and you can order the coffee.

http://www.cuppakona.com/about.htm

And there is even a guest house there if you ever care to come visit and see some palms too. :)

http://www.cuppakona.com/cottage/index.html

When ever I get my butt over there again that's the type of place I'd like to stay at, I'm not much for the big resorts, prefer the laid back style.

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redant

I think now a shutdown maybe priced in as a given and any progress could have a huge upside as the bears run for cover'

every uncle Joe and aunt Ethel is thinking your way - means it wont happen.

i predict much more down from here.

you should not have liquidated

lets see who is right.

looks like every uncle Joe and aunt Ethel where correct, for short term traders todays move is significant.

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tank

Expected red, but all I see is green, at least for now...

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Bags

if you are retiring at the time of the crash

Sometimes I wonder if Rob really reads any of this. I know I have mentioned several times that "if you are retiring at the time of the crash" - you are protected - because you don't have any money in the market - or at least any money that you will need in the next 5-10 years. Is that a difficult concept to remember?

Anyone who has money in the market that they might need within 10 years is playing with fire. You see Rob, you have not yet understood the difference between what you are talking about, and what Bags is talking about. Bags is investing. You are trading. One is guaranteed to make you money. The other is a very easy way to lose you money.

I am not sure why we are trying so hard to convince Rob of the way investing should work. It is clear he is never going to respond to anything we say other than one tiny portion of the information that suits him.

What about bonds? I do not have any because I am so far out from retirement. If yields rise to 4-5% I will start to hold a normal % for my age. Dean I think you are semi-retired. Are you holding a normal % of bonds. Is cash the better safety net now? Anyone have any thoughts on how you should diversify today.

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trioderob

$ 30,000.000,000 fed POMO today

read and learn :

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/pomo/display/

they are pumping today.

if the rest of the week is up that's a different story

there are guys like Dean JUMPING UP AND DOWN thats today is a up day.

you have brokerage houses calling their clients saying this is the buying opportunity of a lifetime

be careful - this may drag on for a long time

Edited by trioderob

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redant

if you are retiring at the time of the crash

Sometimes I wonder if Rob really reads any of this. I know I have mentioned several times that "if you are retiring at the time of the crash" - you are protected - because you don't have any money in the market - or at least any money that you will need in the next 5-10 years. Is that a difficult concept to remember?

Anyone who has money in the market that they might need within 10 years is playing with fire. You see Rob, you have not yet understood the difference between what you are talking about, and what Bags is talking about. Bags is investing. You are trading. One is guaranteed to make you money. The other is a very easy way to lose you money.

I am not sure why we are trying so hard to convince Rob of the way investing should work. It is clear he is never going to respond to anything we say other than one tiny portion of the information that suits him.

What about bonds? I do not have any because I am so far out from retirement. If yields rise to 4-5% I will start to hold a normal % for my age. Dean I think you are semi-retired. Are you holding a normal % of bonds. Is cash the better safety net now? Anyone have any thoughts on how you should diversify today.

These days the only bonds I hold are term trust muni bonds. Mostly BFO, BKK and a small chunk of BTT. The first 2 come due in 2020 and pay a good tax Free rate and are suppose to have a nav of 15 at maturity (but not guarantied). I have had these for a long time so my purchase price is far below the 15. The BTT comes due in 2030, and has a maturity nav of 25 when due. I bought a small amount a couple of weeks ago at around 17.10, was to cheap to pass up, over 6% tax free and really nobody knows where int rates will really go, we could end up like Japan so I'm willing to sock some away until then. I'm 55 and retired but bonds for the most part are a minor part of my investments right now.

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Dypsisdean

What about bonds? I do not have any because I am so far out from retirement. If yields rise to 4-5% I will start to hold a normal % for my age. Dean I think you are semi-retired. Are you holding a normal % of bonds. Is cash the better safety net now? Anyone have any thoughts on how you should diversify today.

Aaron,

I have never liked bonds - just a personal thing. I substituted that part of my diversification with high yielding stocks and income producing real estate. I like high yielding stocks because they act like bonds, but are more liquid, and I am comfortable with stocks. Also, I am handy with tools, construction, and maintenance, and like to stay active - so I can care and upgrade my real estate investment.

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Dypsisdean

there are guys like Dean JUMPING UP AND DOWN thats today is a up day.

I am neither jumping up and down, or panicking when there's a 100 point decline. I said back in July that I thought a consolidation or trading range was in effect that would last through the summer and early fall - to end late in the year or early next year. So for me, I am not getting excited one way or the other. We are just meandering in the middle of a trading range for a bit.

a consolidation or trading range scenario through the summer and early fall that I think is in place. And I think we are at the top of the range at the moment. I wouldn't be surprised to see the market retest the recent lows before heading up again late this year and early 2014.

To which Rob replied,

(will say this: the scenario you are calling for is the same as everyone and their brother is calling -tells me it wont happen !)

Sound familiar

I think now a shutdown maybe priced in as a given and any progress could have a huge upside as the bears run for cover'

every uncle Joe and aunt Ethel is thinking your way - means it wont happen.

i predict much more down from here.

You be the judge. Looks like a trading range since May with the retest after my call of the lows already in. It's noteworthy that we are near the 50 day MA, with the lower end of the range near the 200 day MA - and that we are near the middle of the range. Next 400-500 pts could go either way - but will still be in the range. We'll see which way it breaks out. I am still anticipating to the upside.

post-11-0-56492800-1380665555_thumb.png

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trioderob

Dean-

what would have to happen for you to be wrong ?

in other words - what would the general us stock market have to do for your prediction to be incorrect ?

Edited by trioderob

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Dypsisdean

Dean-

what would have to happen for you to be wrong ?

in other words - what would the general us stock market have to do for your prediction to be incorrect ?

Hmmmmm - good question.

For what I advocated as an investment portfolio of a lifetime - the stock market would have to decline in a manner that it never has since it's creation.

Something like a steady decline for decades, with no recovery ever above the day you started with it. If you do dollar cost averaging from the youngest age you can afford to and never deviate from it, you are guaranteed to make money - with one assumption. And that assumption is that the market will be equal or higher when you liquidate - and that you reinvest the dividends. And that is exactly what has happened over any 40-50 year span you can find.

If the market doesn't grow any in 40-50 years, then you will have many more things to worry about than retirement, and you probably wouldn't have any money to invest anyway.

For my "trading" portfolio. I would have to lose money consistently over a five year period before I would abandon my strategy as "wrong." Even if I maintained the same balance, I would be meeting my goal. My goal is not to lose money, while giving me the maximum exposure to make money with a few big winners. So to be wrong, I would have to be wrong multiple times - getting stopped out repeatedly with small losses, consistently - and never having a winner.

Like with Apple - it took me four tries, getting stopped out three times with two small losses, before making it all back and then some on the fourth try - and now having a chance to ride things up with a trailing stop. Limit the loses and let the winners run. If I go 0-10 or 0-20 or 0-30, then I will be wrong and my trading portfolio broke - and deservedly so. But even 2-10 could end up being profitable. Jesse claimed he only needed to be right 4-10 in order to make money.

But as to what would the general stock market have to do in that scenario for me to be wrong, it wouldn't matter. It only would matter what my stocks are doing. Or in the rare event I would invest in an index, it would only have to repeatedly do the opposite of the direction I was planning on. But I find it hard to have that big winner when investing in an index, and I have suspicions about these 2X and 3X plays.

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tank

Probably time for an October Stock Market Discussion thread...

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