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tank

September Stock Market Discussion

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trioderob

Tank-

you did it.

I give you credit bro

Apple looks VERY strong.

And Dean this just show that when it came to Apple you were just taking a wild guess.

when the stock was 6 % cheaper a weak ago you did not think it was a good bargain anymore.

you cant play things both ways Dude - you were wrong

Edited by trioderob

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redant

Worth about 4% as I write. B) Don't really have a good guess beyond that. Just see some overall market turmoil in the near future but apple may be one of the safe haven bets during the storm.

Rob, get a hobby, it's getting old. :sick:

Edited by redant

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Dypsisdean

And Dean this just show that when it came to Apple you were just taking a wild guess.

when the stock was 6 % cheaper a weak ago you did not think it was a good bargain anymore.

you cant play things both ways Dude - you were wrong

Boy, that's not even a stretch, it is just plain wrong.

I load up on Apple in the low $400s, sell some, make a good profit around $460. Continue to hold a a major position as I stick to my original strategy of a longer term hold. Did I buy more at $450? Would I buy more here? No, I don't need to. I have my position. I am enjoying every uptick.

But you are right, I thought it was a better bargain at $415 than $450. And better still than at $490.

And BTW - when I said I don't see any bargains out there, I was referring to bargains that I wanted to buy, not bargains that I already owned. But for some reason you are trying so hard to show Apple was not at a major inflection point around $400 - and I was wrong for thinking it might have been, I can't blame you for trying.

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tank

Worth about 4% as I write. B) Don't really have a good guess beyond that. Just see some overall market turmoil in the near future but apple may be one of the safe haven bets during the storm.

Rob, get a hobby, it's getting old. :sick:

Have to think Apple would have blown up on a better overall day. DDD got a bunch of positive words from various analysts and isn't dropping like everything else :sick: . I was hoping to buy back in somewhere in mid 40s.

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Dypsisdean

Rob, get a hobby, it's getting old. :sick:

Apple goes down - that proves I was just guessing and wrong.

Apple goes up - that proves I was just guessing and wrong.

I think Rob still has a problem thinking in terms any longer than a day or two. Let's look at a long term chart in a year or two and see if the $400 area was indeed the area of a major inflection point for Apple. So far, so good.

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tank

Yahoo is "quietly" up about 25% over the past 3 months. Appears to making a big run today.

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tank

Looking at Sprint again. While Sprint as my carrier has been terrible, Sprint the stock was great for me. Thinking it may be time to test the waters again.

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redant

I had mentioned BX a while back as one that I really own and like for long term housing play, closing in on all time high today, which was just made 3 days ago. Plus a nice 3.8% div.

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tank

BX looks good today along with Yahoo and First Solar.

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trioderob

PAUL/MATTY/DEAN/REDANT/TANK/KIM/BAGS :

WHATS YOUR CALL ON THE GENERAL MARKET RIGHT HERE AND NOW ???

I AM DRAWING A BLANK AND DON'T HAVE A CLUE

WHATS YOUR TAKE SHORT AND INTERMEDIATE TERM ??????

Edited by trioderob

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redant

Pretty simple Rob, short term if the gov gets it's poo together and passes what is deemed by the market as needed then we will go up. Major gov shutdown and default on US obligations we go down, hard. Till then nobody knows hence the lackluster performance.

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trioderob

yea -

i ejected yesterday and am still on the sidelines.

feels like the market could rocket or crash into the abyss this week

i guess right now i am more fearful than greedy

:interesting:

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Dypsisdean

First Rob

hold your horses Dean

give it a little time

So it's been a week now - every single day a down day - since I suggested a "no taper" could ironically be seen as bearish and find the market lower a week after the decision.

But to answer your question - I think I already did. I see no bargains now. I think the market may be close to fairly priced. So for me it's a hold. I wouldn't be buying or selling here, because as you know, I look for over and under valued situations. And I don't see bonds or commodities to have any opportunities now either. It's times like these I just sit and collect dividends from my longer term holdings and wait. And if the market drifts higher, that's fine. If it drifts lower, that's fine too.

I think a little more consolidation here after a fabulous bull run should be in order. Markets don't always have to be on the verge of crashing or rocketing. But an unexpected pop or drop will have me looking.

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trioderob

And if the market drifts higher, that's fine. If it drifts lower, that's fine too.

I am not clear as to what you are talking about.

you are saying that your calls have been so expertly executed up to this point that the future direction of the market is of no consequence ?

is sounds like no matter what happens you are a winner -that's a place i sure would love to be.

its like you are wrapped in gold foil - that's a fantastic situation.

you did state:

"I think I already did. I see no bargains now. I think the market may be close to fairly priced."

so are you saying that if the market is "fairly priced" its NOT a time to buy more stock ?

so i assume that if the market is "overpriced" it REALLY would be a bad time to buy !

Edited by trioderob

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trioderob

Dean-

my indicators are getting real close to a HUGE

"SELL SELL SELL"

NOT YET THERE YET - BUT I AM ON THE SIDE LINE WATCHING

:interesting:

Edited by trioderob

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tank

Picked up some sprint today. CUR and YHOO had good days for me.

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Dypsisdean

And if the market drifts higher, that's fine. If it drifts lower, that's fine too.

I am not clear as to what you are talking about.

you are saying that your calls have been so expertly executed up to this point that the future direction of the market is of no consequence ?

is sounds like no matter what happens you are a winner -that's a place i sure would love to be.

its like you are wrapped in gold foil - that's a fantastic situation.

you did state:

"I think I already did. I see no bargains now. I think the market may be close to fairly priced."

so are you saying that if the market is "fairly priced" its NOT a time to buy more stock ?

so i assume that if the market is "overpriced" it REALLY would be a bad time to buy !

Rob - sometimes I don't think you can see past tomorrow. What is the longest you ever held a stock?

I presently have 5 stocks in my "fun/trading" portfolio. Four I have held for around 3 years now and am up about 100%. The fifth is Apple (up 17% so far). I have been receiving around 6-8% on my original investment in dividends - and the companies continue to increase their dividends. The "market" could drop 50% and I would still have made almost 8% a year. So why should I ever sell, unless I see them at a major multi-year top? Buy at major bottoms and sell at major tops - that is what I have been trying to tell you is the only way I think "trading" can be profitable over the long run.

I don't care if the market falls 10% from here. And I don't care if it rises 10% from here. I only care if it looks like the overall long term up trend is still in place.

So yes - and I thought it was obvious - if things are ridiculously under priced, I am a buyer. When they are ridiculously over priced, I am a seller. It they are fairly priced, I am a holder. You see, I hate being on the sidelines. You are guaranteed not to make any money there. I want to always be in the game - either short or long. You can't hit a home run, or even a single, on the bench. So I would rather be in the game, at the plate, at all times. I may strike out occasionally, but as long as I wear a helmet and don't get beaned, I have a chance to hit a good pitch over the fence.

So I consider myself successful if I can stay near fully invested - even if I am not making money - as long as I am not losing. Because that way, I at least have a chance at capturing a major move. Otherwise - sidelines - zero chance. So that is why I consider the market a hold (fairly priced) right now. Not a buy (under priced), not a sell (over priced). But within 10% (up or down) of fairly priced. So, not at a major inflection point.

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trioderob

its sounds like you are in a fantastic situation.

whats even better is that you have the ability to determine if a stock is under priced / fair priced /overpriced

that lets you buy at the right time at the lowest possible price and sell just before it crashes - maximizing profits

that's a rare gift

"if the market drifts higher, that's fine. If it drifts lower, that's fine too."

-Dean

Edited by trioderob

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Dypsisdean

whats even better is that you have the ability to determine if a stock is under priced / fair priced /overpriced

Sorta - but I don't determine it - the market determines it and then lets me know.

If I buy, thinking something is under priced, and it drops a little - I am stopped out. And I know it wasn't as under priced as I thought it was. I was wrong, and I lose a little.

If I buy, and it goes up, then it was under priced, and I was right. So in that scenario I either make a little, or I may even make a lot. But it is tougher than what you think - buying when the blood is running in the street, and selling when everyone sees nothing but rainbows. But that is where the tops and bottoms are.

Buying Apple at $400 was difficult. Everyone is calling for $250, and many people like you were so sure and vocal that it was a bad move, the party was over - that Apple was a has been company. But those are the bottoms - at least intermediate bottoms - often times an under priced stock.

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Dypsisdean

down we go..................

Looks to me like we haven't gone anywhere since Wed afternoon.

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Dypsisdean

Hmmmmm - not there yet, but increased IPO activity is one of the signs of a looming top.

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trioderob

I am 100% out and watching

if the market crashes into the abyss - I will bargain hunt.

:interesting:

Edited by trioderob

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John Case

I might suggest that with the conditions setting up that we may be on the verge of a monstrous bear trap........

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redant

I might suggest that with the conditions setting up that we may be on the verge of a monstrous bear trap........

There is a real good chance you are correct, but it all depends on how the shutdown pans out, short live or not at all the bears will be running to cover. A long term shutdown that pushes the economy back into recession (the less likely scenario) the bears will rule. In the mean time people who make there living of the markets need to understand timing is everything.

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tank

Exited FSLR as it really hasn't done anything since I picked it up, now looking at XONE as it seems to be undervalued and taking a beating.

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redant

Exited FSLR as it really hasn't done anything since I picked it up, now looking at XONE as it seems to be undervalued and taking a beating.

Doing nothing should be considered a positive in the present environment.

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tank

Exited FSLR as it really hasn't done anything since I picked it up, now looking at XONE as it seems to be undervalued and taking a beating.

Doing nothing should be considered a positive in the present environment.

I didn't mean for that to sound like I was disappointed :) .

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trioderob

down she goes.......

just like I predicted.

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Dypsisdean

down she goes.......

just like I predicted.

Rob,

I'll try asking again - why didn't you have enough confidence in your prediction to try and make some money with it? When I think prices on something are at a top, I'll go short. What about you?

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trioderob

Dean-

I wait with baited breath for that day.

i cant wait to see you make that profound top call.

don't think you will be able to do it now -any more than you did in the crash 6 years ago.

:interesting:

Edited by trioderob

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redant

down she goes.......

just like I predicted.

Such amazing insight, you are a stock phenomenon, with with such amazing insight you have never played any of the games to prove your self. Truly Rob you have no credibility so stop patting yourself on the back. Anyone can shout out all sorts of buys and sells then claim they "predicted it" one one of them just happen to be correct, which was rather easy in this case.

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trioderob

ok redant - what % total up for the year if you are so smart - why not tell it like it is ???

after all its the bottom line that counts.

in fact all that matters is what % everyone is up for the year -everything else is just a bunch a "jibba jabba"

and redant - if my call was so easy - i assume you opened a massive leveraged short position ????

instead of putting me down you guys should be looking at this :

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=EEM+Interactive#symbol=eem;range=5d;compare=^ixic;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Edited by trioderob

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redant

ok redant - what % total up for the year if you are so smart - why not tell it like it is ???

after all its the bottom line that counts.

in fact all that matters is what % everyone is up for the year -everything else is just a bunch a "jibba jabba"

and redant - if my call was so easy - i assume you opened a massive leveraged short position ????

If you where playing in the http://www.palmtalk.org/forum/index.php?/topic/38484-fantasy-stock-picker-league/ you would see the answer was YES (in the make believe world where the gov doesn't take part of your cheese every time you liquidate) The problem is in the real world, a place I don't think you ever really placed a trade in it's not nearly that simple and the tax issues make it impossible to be flipping in and out of positions. I'm sure you know nothing about that never having placed a real trade. In the real world I have on the largest amount of protection I have ever had against my long term bullish posture. Managing a portfolio of stocks and bonds involves a lot more then just shouting out buy buy buy, sell sell sell.

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trioderob

redant-

maybe you cant do it - that does not mean others cant.

many others do it

you have blinders on

i give up .

Edited by trioderob

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Dypsisdean

Dean-

I wait with baited breath for that day.

i cant wait to see you make that profound top call.

don't think you will be able to do it now -any more than you did in the crash 6 years ago.

Why so much trouble answering the question?

As far as that "profound top call" - I don't think the S&P will ever top longer term. Since I think longer term, I see 2-5 year bear markets as rare events. There have been way more up months in my life than down months. So I will short gold, oil, bonds, and individual stocks, but it would be truly a rare situation that I would short the U.S.A.

Again - I am up nicely over the last ten years - including the "Crash into the Abyss" - just like all those who just held. It sounds to me as if you didn't, since you still live in fear of another once in a lifetime recession.

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paulgila

its obvious

that rob

will never actually answer

any questions

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