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tank

September Stock Market Discussion

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trioderob

Dean-

you do a lot of big talking - had to taunt me

so tell us will this market reach new all time highs here ?

(which it hit and never returned to after the tapering talk )

the gap up on Monday morning - just the beginning or a blow off top ?

do not give me any of your fancy double talk - just answer my questions here.

(and please don't tell me again the you feel the market will ultimately go higher but there is the possibility of a intermediate drop of unknown duration. )

Edited by trioderob

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Dypsisdean

Dean-

you do a lot of big talking - had to taunt me

so tell us will this market reach new all time highs here ?

(which it hit and never returned to after the tapering talk )

I have no idea whether this market will "reach new all time highs here." I have told you about a dozen times now that I can not make those short term calls. Why do you keep asking me to?

One last time - ROB, I CAN NOT TELL YOU WHAT A STOCK OR ANY MARKET WILL DO IN THE NEXT HOUR, DAY, WEEK, OR MONTH.

the gap up on Monday morning - just the beginning or a blow off top ?

do not give me any of your fancy double talk - just answer my questions here.

(and please don't tell me again the you feel the market will ultimately go higher but there is the possibility of a intermediate drop of unknown duration. )

I would tell you how I feel about about the next 6-12 months, or what Monday's futures are telling me - but you said "please don't."

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redant

"I AM OUTTA FOR GOOD" :floor::floor::floor::floor::floor::floor::floor:

Really couldn't click enough of those little guys.

:)

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tank

Apple looks real weak

I agree with you on this.

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trioderob

Dean-

you still holding on to your Apple position or did you sell ?

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trioderob

I wonder if Apple will survive as a premium brand or will it eventually become a well know bargain brand ?

or an even more crazy idea - will they branch into things like microwave ovens which have a real nice mini computer display

and the apple logo ?

don't get hung up on the microwave part - in other words they diversify the apple logo and nice user interface to other non computer related products .

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trioderob

But I'm happy with what it should be doing now - it should be taking a

rest, or drop back a bit after a run like that. But there should be a

lot happening the next six months as far as news, new products, and

earning reports - so I am cautiously optimistic. - DEAN

GREAT CALL - APPLE IS NOW DOWN 10% FROM YOUR POST A WEEK AGO

WHILE THE REST OF THE MARKET IS UP.

(you love to post charts on MY calls so "fair is fair" dude)

Edited by trioderob

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Dypsisdean

Dean-

you still holding on to your Apple position or did you sell ?

Why are you so obsessed with my Apple position?

If you really need to know, I was stopped out this morning with about an 11% gain. So with one dividend payout that works out to be about a 23% annual return - better than the market so far this year. I could be happier, but I'll take it. I would buy in again around $425. (and actually I still hold about 25% of my original oversized position)

Did I buy at the absolute low and sell at the absolute high - no. Did I profit - yes. Is the overall portfolio up this week - yes. Why should I complain? Even after today it has outperformed the market over the last 3 months (see chart)

Like an old tired palm - now I look for another to plant in its place.

post-11-0-72858000-1379361865_thumb.png

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Dypsisdean

bummer

Bummer? I would take a 10% gain every six months if I could.

A bummer is when you lose money - or watching a bull run with no skin in the game.

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redant

Whats wrong with you Dean, I thought you could pick the bottom and top of every stock within .0005%. I'm ignoring any future thoughts you have regarding the market, you led us astray. :mrlooney:

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tank

Any thoughts on yahoo? Topped out at 30? Only down from here? Alibaba break out?

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tank

Also, any thoughts on the fed meeting tomorrow? Has any announcement already be priced into the market?

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trioderob

Also, any thoughts on the fed meeting tomorrow? Has any announcement already be priced into the market?

worry more about what the market is doing and dont worry about REDANT AND DEANS feelings

that will just tell you alot about Redant and Dean and not much about the market

as far as the market being priced in for anything - yes an announcement indicating a taper is priced in already

how could it not be ? - its been talked about for weeks

i completely diagree with Dean where he says its a "non issue"

he is wrong

if the taper is of a shockingly big amount - the market will crash

bottom line - things that are of a shocking nature move the market

things that are known are priced in

and most important - everyone is an Eisenstein and pats themselves on the back in a bull market

Edited by trioderob

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tank

Also, any thoughts on the fed meeting tomorrow? Has any announcement already be priced into the market?

worry more about what the market is doing and dont worry about REDANT AND DEANS feelings

that will just tell you alot about Redant and Dean and not much about the market

What in the world does this mean? This is beginning to resemble an obsession. Triode, try and keep it together.

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trioderob

not any worse than Dean posting a negative comment or chart about absolutely every single post i make.

and if you try to think about what I just wrote it makes perfect sense.

Edited by trioderob

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Dypsisdean

as far as the market being priced in for anything - yes an announcement indicating a taper is priced in already

how could it not be ? - its been talked about for weeks

i completely diagree with Dean where he says its a "non issue"

When I said/say non-issue I was referring to the longer term - not the hour by hour noise you try to make sense of. It was priced in back when I told you it was, when you were precicting crash and a market unhappy with Uncle Ben. The market is at the same levels it was back then - so if it is priced in now, it was priced in back then - it was a non-issue. And thanks for your gem of wisdom. I had never known this before - "bottom line - things that are of a shocking nature move the market" I'll try an remember that. But it may be a bit over my head.

One thing you can count on - at this point in the game, the Fed will do everything in its power not to surprise anyone. And what is ironic now is that the crowd mentality has changed so much (yours included), that no tapering could be seen as a proclamation by the Fed that the economy is too weak, and prompt a sell off.

and most important - everyone is an Eisenstein and pats themselves on the back in a bull market

What do you tell the bear who is shorting stocks in a bull market? Is he still an Einsteiin? Like your pal Jesse said, it doesn't matter if it's a bull market or bear market. He made his most money in the bear market. If you are so sure of your prognosticative abilities, you should have been shorting every one of your crash calls. But when I asked about why you aren't doing so, I didn't get any response. If I could pick short term calls like you can, I would be going short and long with equal frequency.

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tank

Can something get posted on these threads that doesn't devolve into a Triode vs Dean pissing contest?

Question to both, what was the last "thing" (stock, fund, etc) that you picked up?

I picked up Yahoo. I sold DDD which I bought at ~35. DDD and other 3D printing stocks looked like they were taking a break. I am hoping to pick it up again in the mid 40s. With my luck DDD will be at 70 by the end of next week.

Another question for a relative novice that has to do with CUR. What is the significance, if any, of a stock pricing at over $3? Is this a point when more institutional investors get in? Just curious.

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redant

In the back to reality part of the thread, I have purchased almost nothing for a while now, Last thing I bought for my IRA was JGT, http://www.nuveen.com/cef/Product/Overview.aspx?FundCode=JGT, over 10% dist, -16.65% to nav. It's obviously interest rate sensitive but it's way over done (IMO) due to the panic selling as most small CEF are subjected to. It only pays quarterly so don't like that but I do think the move in interest rates got ahead of it's self. I have been in for the first payout so the first payout will make me even so far on the trade.

I don't like small stocks like CUR, to many bad experiences in the past. Yahoo has been doing well since the new CEO, low P/E, maybe some earning growth. I'm just not in a buying mood, I like to buy at a discount and just not got that warm fuzzy feeling. I'm already plenty long so no need to add on now.

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trioderob

The market is at the same levels it was back then - so if it is priced in now, it was priced in back then - it was a non-issue.

wrong again

if was a "non issue" it would be HIGHER today - not back where it was - before the announcement

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trioderob

they did not taper today

YEAAAA HAAAAAA !

(ANYONE BUT DEAN THINK THE TAPER WAS A NON ISSUE - IF YOU DO THEN LOOK AT TODAY'S CHART 2 SECONDS AFTER THE FED SPOKE)

Edited by trioderob

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trioderob

"that no tapering could be seen as a proclamation by the Fed that the economy is too weak, and prompt a sell off."

WRONG

I am so "outta here" its not even funny.......................................this time for sure !

Dean - if you ever do find one of those rare inflection points on the SP500 and you think the bull market is over - please start a thread and I will be "all ears"

up we go again.......................thanks Uncle Ben

"things that shock - move the market"

:interesting:

Edited by trioderob

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Dypsisdean

"that no tapering could be seen as a proclamation by the Fed that the economy is too weak, and prompt a sell off."

WRONG

I am so "outta here" its not even funny.......................................this time for sure !

Dean - if you ever do find one of those rare inflection points on the SP500 and you think the bull market is over - please start a thread and I will be "all ears"

up we go again.......................thanks Uncle Ben

"things that shock - move the market"

:interesting:

I have no problem realizing when the market doesn't do what I think it should. That means either I am wrong or the market is wrong. :)

But I don't look at this type of knee jerk reaction as proof of anything more than just a short term technical oscillation - it sure looked a lot like a short squeeze to me. But I'm not trading on Fed news anyway. I'm still just collecting dividends and watching the portfolio grow during this nice multi-year bull market. But things are beginning to feel much too easy and complacent for my liking.

Let's see what the market has to say about no tapering as it takes some time to digest it. Higher a week from today? - not so sure.

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Dypsisdean

Dean - if you ever do find one of those rare inflection points on the SP500 and you think the bull market is over - please start a thread and I will be "all ears"

As you will remember, I seem to be better picking bottoms. Tops for me have always been tough - or I would have sold AAPL at $510. I guess my greed is stronger than my fear. :)

You are the Crash King. I'll be waiting for your call.

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Dypsisdean

Can something get posted on these threads that doesn't devolve into a Triode vs Dean pissing contest?

Question to both, what was the last "thing" (stock, fund, etc) that you picked up?

I picked up Yahoo. I sold DDD which I bought at ~35. DDD and other 3D printing stocks looked like they were taking a break. I am hoping to pick it up again in the mid 40s. With my luck DDD will be at 70 by the end of next week.

Another question for a relative novice that has to do with CUR. What is the significance, if any, of a stock pricing at over $3? Is this a point when more institutional investors get in? Just curious.

I have only made two purchases (and a few sales) this year. TBT a few months ago - since sold. And my recent AAPL position, purchased near the low. Sold most of an oversized position a few days ago, but it still comprises about 20% of my holdings. I don't see any bargins at the moment. I'll probably wait out the coming Congressional Circus.

Not sure about your CUR question. But yes, certain funds, institutions, trusts, etc. have a provision as to forbidding stocks below certain prices. I don't know if $3 has any significance, but I seem to remember that at certain levels below $10 there are increasing restrictions. Personally, looking back, I haven't done well at all with stocks under $10, and certainly not under $5. And it wasn't from lack of trying.

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redant

XaiUx.gifVincient would have loved this if he still read the stock section, a young Ben Bernanke

Just a joke kids, I think Bens done a fine job.

Edited by redant

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Bags

I just checked the rate of return year to date on my boring buy and hold index funds in a retirement account. I have 100% in stocks. 65% total us stock and 35% total international stock. 20.9% return for the year. My individual stocks -18.9% for the year (I really suck at stock picking so far). I would love to be able to pick and choose huge winners, but it is hard to argue with the basic long term low fee approach to investing.

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Dypsisdean

I just checked the rate of return year to date on my boring buy and hold index funds in a retirement account. I have 100% in stocks. 65% total us stock and 35% total international stock. 20.9% return for the year. My individual stocks -18.9% for the year (I really suck at stock picking so far). I would love to be able to pick and choose huge winners, but it is hard to argue with the basic long term low fee approach to investing.

Yeah - but if you would have bought everything on Oct 12, 2007 and sold everything on Mar 6, 2009 you would have taken a 60% haircut.

I'm outta here.

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Bags

I just checked the rate of return year to date on my boring buy and hold index funds in a retirement account. I have 100% in stocks. 65% total us stock and 35% total international stock. 20.9% return for the year. My individual stocks -18.9% for the year (I really suck at stock picking so far). I would love to be able to pick and choose huge winners, but it is hard to argue with the basic long term low fee approach to investing.

Yeah - but if you would have bought everything on Oct 12, 2007 and sold everything on Mar 6, 2009 you would have taken a 60% haircut.

I'm outta here.

I knew Rob was going to finally talk some sense into you. BTW apple is looking STRONG today!

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redant

I just checked the rate of return year to date on my boring buy and hold index funds in a retirement account. I have 100% in stocks. 65% total us stock and 35% total international stock. 20.9% return for the year. My individual stocks -18.9% for the year (I really suck at stock picking so far). I would love to be able to pick and choose huge winners, but it is hard to argue with the basic long term low fee approach to investing.

It really is hard to beat the market average funds. The cost is small, the volatility usually less then just one stock and the ability to find the diamonds in all those rocks is pretty hard. Particularly without hoards of researchers and paying out for inside information (not that thats ever done). Most casual traders like us only see the diamonds after the rest of the world has and then more times then not the parties over.

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tank

Things are going as planned... Congress will not agree on a budget or debt ceiling. Probably should set some stops now for most of my stuff at current levels in lieu of the next two weeks.

I'm half kidding

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trioderob

just keep buying Tank

dont worry about the deal with congress - its a non issue.

worry more about this:

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBTPGR10:IND

(in other words- keep your eye on italy/spain/france - if they are ok - the market here is ok)

Edited by trioderob

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Dypsisdean

"that no tapering could be seen as a proclamation by the Fed that the economy is too weak, and prompt a sell off."

WRONG

up we go again.......................thanks Uncle Ben

Hmmmm, two days after the "no tapering" decision, and after the initial computer algorithms and short covering ended, it looks like selling to me - to right back where we started - so far.

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trioderob

hold your horses Dean

give it a little time

if you cant wait I can dig out a fed balance sheet vs stock market price chart.

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Dypsisdean

hold your horses Dean

give it a little time

I'm the one who advised you to give it a little time - and not to be so fast with your "up we go again." And so far the market has spoken (at least the DOW) by placing us back exactly where we were when the announcement was made.

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