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Fantasy stock picker league


Bags

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I have $100 real money that says Rob does not beat the S&P 500 if anyone is interested. Closed at 1639.77 today

Encinitas, CA

Zone 10b

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No matter what you lose, either you lose play money, or you realize how much money you could have made but didn't because you were playing a game and not the real thing. Not sure I see the fun this one.

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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I have $100 real money that says Rob does not beat the S&P 500 if anyone is interested. Closed at 1639.77 today

Aaron - thats easy $100.

Here is easier money, he won't even play ... :mrlooney:

Coral Gables, FL 8 miles North of Fairchild USDA Zone 10B

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That's some big talk Moose for a guy who has yet to play the game and prove he can beat the market.

and what the heck is a Moose doing in Florida ???

Edited by trioderob
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_Keith Said:

Farmers' Almanac Predicts Brutally Cold Winter

http://www.cbn.com/cbnnews/healthscience/2013/August/Farmers-Almanac-Predicts-Brutally-Cold-Winter/

Axel in Santa Cruz asked:

You believe that crap?

_Keith said:

Of course not, but it makes for awfully fun conversation.

_Keith, on 03 Sept 2013 - 15:31, said:

No matter what you lose, either you lose play money, or you realize how much money you could have made but didn't because you were playing a game and not the real thing. Not sure I see the fun this one.

So you think talking about weather forecasts from the Farmer's Almanac is "awfully fun" but a little friendly competition in an investment fantasy league isn't?

ok...

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I am adding Keith to the Debbie downer list :mrlooney:

So Rob, Moose and Mats are you guys in? I just placed market orders for most of my stocks. I still have 20k to spend.

Encinitas, CA

Zone 10b

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So whats the deal on that site, seems to be a learning site, just hate to get any more spam by signing up on anything. If it's relatively painless I'm in. How do we see others portfolios?

Jupiter FL

in the Zone formally known as 10A

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So whats the deal on that site, seems to be a learning site, just hate to get any more spam by signing up on anything. If it's relatively painless I'm in. How do we see others portfolios?

It took less than a minute to join. I unchecked the box that wants to send emails and so far no spam, but I do not think you can give your email to your mom without getting spam these days. I am not sure about seeing others portfolios as I just joined a few hours ago. There is a leader board for the league so I think you should see what others are doing. If you search palmtalk in the leagues you should find it. It tracks your performance against the S&P 500 as well.

Encinitas, CA

Zone 10b

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I'm in - placed a couple of orders. I guess they will fill at the open tomorrow.

Monopoly was pretty popular. So some people have fun playing games with play money.

Only thing I didn't see was if dividends are collected??? That is usually a big part of my strategy.

animated-volcano-image-0010.gif.71ccc48bfc1ec622a0adca187eabaaa4.gif

Kona, on The Big Island
Hawaii - Land of Volcanoes

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I tried to disable margin trading, but it looks like it is still allowing it. If it does that is fine. It is about the % return not the dollar amount.

My portfolio somewhat represents my real life investments with mostly US and international index funds. In real life I own less than 5% individual stocks. Fantasy is 25% individual.

For me LNDC reports earnings this month and has crushed estimates for many quarters in a row. Hope it continues.

ATRS has an october FDA decision that could be huge for the company.

Encinitas, CA

Zone 10b

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My new photo, lol

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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Stupid site wouldn't let me do a second trade in SDS for some unknown reason, now my kids will have to pay for their own college education. :mrlooney:

Jupiter FL

in the Zone formally known as 10A

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Redant,

Did you do your portfolio under the palmtalk league? I don't see you there. There are other portfolios you can create out of the palmtalk league. Just make sure you have it in the right place.

Keith,

lol.

Encinitas, CA

Zone 10b

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Redant,

Did you do your portfolio under the palmtalk league? I don't see you there. There are other portfolios you can create out of the palmtalk league. Just make sure you have it in the right place.

Keith,

lol.

Yes, I did, it says 5 members in the league but I only see 3 when I open it, you, Dean and Tank. ??? Maybe it takes a while to update

Jupiter FL

in the Zone formally known as 10A

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Seems I didn't realize there are three portfolios set up and I placed my trade in the practice portfolio, not the PT league portfolio, oh well I get a late start. Wheres Rob???????

Edited by redant

Jupiter FL

in the Zone formally known as 10A

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That's some big talk Moose for a guy who has yet to play the game and prove he can beat the market.

and what the heck is a Moose doing in Florida ???

Subtropical Moose - a subspecies :mrlooney:

Have you even seen a Moose in the wild?

Coral Gables, FL 8 miles North of Fairchild USDA Zone 10B

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Seems I didn't realize there are three portfolios set up and I placed my trade in the practice portfolio, not the PT league portfolio, oh well I get a late start. Wheres Rob???????

Don't worry, it probably wouldn't have gotten you much if you got in earlier. My stuff was bought at the open the next day, and didn't move much - even though it had changed considerably from when I bought it the day before, after the close.

But this is a marathon, not a sprint. And I think Rob is a sprinter - 10.5 seconds - and then on to another sprint.

animated-volcano-image-0010.gif.71ccc48bfc1ec622a0adca187eabaaa4.gif

Kona, on The Big Island
Hawaii - Land of Volcanoes

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That's some big talk Moose for a guy who has yet to play the game and prove he can beat the market.

and what the heck is a Moose doing in Florida ???

Subtropical Moose - a subspecies :mrlooney:

Have you even seen a Moose in the wild?

Have you ever been wild???

animated-volcano-image-0010.gif.71ccc48bfc1ec622a0adca187eabaaa4.gif

Kona, on The Big Island
Hawaii - Land of Volcanoes

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Seems I didn't realize there are three portfolios set up and I placed my trade in the practice portfolio, not the PT league portfolio, oh well I get a late start. Wheres Rob???????

I aint good at that single pickin stuff -but if I had to - then give me some of this:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^SOX+Interactive#symbol=^sox;range=5d;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Edited by trioderob
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So Monday is the theoretical day for Apple to announce its new products?

It's Sept 10 in the US and Sept 11 in China. But it could be a sell the news event. There is unlikely to be any surprises or blockbusters.

China has probably the biggest potential at the moment - but we will have to wait for results - that is if the phone and service announcement are what is expected.

animated-volcano-image-0010.gif.71ccc48bfc1ec622a0adca187eabaaa4.gif

Kona, on The Big Island
Hawaii - Land of Volcanoes

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Bags - I was limited to the amounts I could buy or short. Do you know what that is about - were you?

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Kona, on The Big Island
Hawaii - Land of Volcanoes

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Dean,

You are limited to no more than 25% for any one position. I did not set it up this way and I do not see a way to change it.

Encinitas, CA

Zone 10b

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Yeah sat

w the same when I tried 1000 SDS. Not them I'm a LT bear but it's just so hard to be a bull right now. I cant find anything that I'm comfortable with for the short term.

Jupiter FL

in the Zone formally known as 10A

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I agree with Moose on this. I never liked Monopoly. I don't have time to watch the market every day. I have always been in for the long haul. Our portfolio - managed by a financial planner with the same outlook on money as we have - has been very successful in keeping our earnings pretty consistent over the last 15 years, even through the recession. I am too busy living to worry about the market.

Palmmermaid

Kitty Philips

West Palm Beach, FL

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I agree with Moose on this. I never liked Monopoly. I don't have time to watch the market every day. I have always been in for the long haul. Our portfolio - managed by a financial planner with the same outlook on money as we have - has been very successful in keeping our earnings pretty consistent over the last 15 years, even through the recession. I am too busy living to worry about the market.

Bags plan would be for you then, monthly additions to major low cost index funds. The funds would no doubt be less expensive then your financial planner, not that I'm out to put anyone out of business but it's an easy cheap plan that works over time. There are low cost ETF for most anything these days. Personally I like to be responsible for my future.

Jupiter FL

in the Zone formally known as 10A

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I am too busy living to worry about the market.

That is why I asked Rob the rhetorical question a week or so ago to his comment that all that matters is % gains each year. My question was, "Who is the real winner, someone up 8-10% a year for 10 years doing nothing, or the guy up 18-20% for ten years (next to impossible)- but spending hours every day and weekends worrying about every news flash and financial report?" Not to mention those who try for the 20% a year and lose.

Unless you enjoy it, I would say the former.

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Kona, on The Big Island
Hawaii - Land of Volcanoes

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Dean,

I would say the guy spending time worrying about his investments is going to do worse every time. The average investor has underperformed the market every year for the last 15 years. Over a 20 year period the percentage of actively managed mutual funds and hedge funds that have out performed the market is close to 0.

Palmmermaid,

I spend time on buying individual stocks because it interests me and to try and make a little extra money. What I consider my real investments, my retirement accounts, I have probably spent less than 60 minutes on in the last 11 plus years and that is the way it should be.

What if I paid you 500k to learn how to manage your own investments. Would you? Paying someone 1% to manage your money will cost you more than that over your lifetime. Sounds crazy but it is true. Check out the fees of your funds and what your CPA charges you. I will bet the funds are all higher fee funds. I pay around .20% for my investments. I would pay less if I had the option of using a company like Vanguard.

5000 a year in a Roth IRA earning 10% interest for 40 years will give you 2.43 million

Subtract 1% for fees and you end up with1.84 million a difference of 590,000.

Encinitas, CA

Zone 10b

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Dean,

I would say the guy spending time worrying about his investments is going to do worse every time. The average investor has underperformed the market every year for the last 15 years. Over a 20 year period the percentage of actively managed mutual funds and hedge funds that have out performed the market is close to 0.

Aaron - I was referring to the very small percentage of investors that can actually beat the market consistently. There are some. But you don't hear about them much because they don't need "side" jobs on TV or giving advice. And they don't need to claim to be able to run other people's money and make money as their profession. They have no need to feed their egos, so they just make quiet money. But what I meant was even with them making twice the market averages, they have great years and crappy years, and they spend a lot of time at their craft. So it's all a matter of determining if they could make more doing something else. Because for them it is hard stressful work.

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Kona, on The Big Island
Hawaii - Land of Volcanoes

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Dean,

you have mentioned you have beaten the market over the last five years or so. Have you changed your strategy to do this? What do you do? So far I am way below the market on my individual stocks, but I have learned a lot and am hopeful I can do better.

Encinitas, CA

Zone 10b

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Dean,

you have mentioned you have beaten the market over the last five years or so. Have you changed your strategy to do this? What do you do? So far I am way below the market on my individual stocks, but I have learned a lot and am hopeful I can do better.

Aaron - I think if you check, you will find I have never said that. In fact, I have been careful to try not to have said that, because I don't think I have.

But over the last five years I have come close, only to be killed by one or two bad mistakes (trades). I can say that one was buying some banks/financials that I thought the Gov would never let fail. They started bailing out banks right after my WaMu and Wachovia went under. And I tried to pick Fannie and Freddie when they were extremely beaten down. After the "recovery" started, I tried to pic Nat Gas as it dropped under $5, only to go to near $3. Just one mismanaged position can really ruin a small portfolio.

But I am hopefully learning from my mistakes. Something I should have already known is to put a stop in and don't be so stubborn that you "know" you will eventually be right. Don't let your emotions get involved - easier said than done. As Jesse Livermore said - you can be right only 4 out of 10 times and still make big money - if you let your winners run, and are sure to avoid the big loses when you are wrong. So that is the biggest change in my trying to beat the market. Get out early if your timing proves to be wrong.

Another thing that Jesse said that I am trying to heed - don't try and catch the first and last 1/8 of a move. (Stocks used to trade in fractions). They can be the most expensive eighths you ever try to capture. Be happy with 3/4 of a move. You will never catch the exact bottom or top.

So, I haven't given up trying, and the last two years I think I have done so. But the jury is still out. And that is why I have tried to stress that your method is the best for money you can't afford to lose.

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Kona, on The Big Island
Hawaii - Land of Volcanoes

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I probably misunderstood and I know you mentioned that you are playing the market only after your long term dollar cost averaging investments were taken care of. I was just curious if you had found a winning strategy and what it was. My biggest problem has been selling a winner that was up 20% only to watch it double and picking a small cap that tanked. Like you said those few mistakes have cost me so far and I am down about 10% overall. For me timing the market is not possible and I like the Warren Buffets idea of buying a business and not the stock price. If the business is doing well in the short term it does not matter what the stock price does. That is why I like apple.

Encinitas, CA

Zone 10b

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So nobody else having issues with this site? Does not load at all for me in IE, firefox lets me in but trying to place any trades today was totally unsuccessful. Everything seems fine until the last moment then a big stall, and finally a message, there was an error placing your trade,. While it seems like fun I don't have time for this. If it was my broker I'd be livid! Never got the trades in today.

Jupiter FL

in the Zone formally known as 10A

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No issues for me yet. But I only placed my initial trades when the market was closed - and they placed them at the open the following day. I wanted to place a sell order near the close today, but was getting to it just as the bell rang, so I just put it off. I may still place it depending on what the futures look like later tonight.

animated-volcano-image-0010.gif.71ccc48bfc1ec622a0adca187eabaaa4.gif

Kona, on The Big Island
Hawaii - Land of Volcanoes

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