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Cold winter in the Northern Hemisphere?


John Case

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I have been reading a lot of stuff from non-politically influenced sources, that we may be in for the beginning of a solar minimum after a solar maximum that wasn't so 'hot'.

any ideas on extra winter protection this year?

Thanks,

John

John Case

Brentwood CA

Owner and curator of Hana Keu Garden

USDA Zone 9b more or less, Sunset Zone 14 in winter 9 in summer

"Its always exciting the first time you save the world. Its a real thrill!"

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John, we are just entering solar max phase, even if its lower we are still in solar max phase and won't drop to solar min until 2020. But as far as I can tell, there is little to no correlation with a cold Winter. Hemisphere winter. The worst freeze of the century occurred in 1990 at the peak of a very strong high activity solar phase.

The reports I've seen suggest a mild Winter for the West Coast with above normal precipitation. There is even a chance of an El Niño early 2014.

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What Axel said. We're just about to see flipping poles on the sun, it'll be awhile until the minimum.

NOAA climate center is actually predicting above average temps for the southern 2/3rds of the lower 48 during the DJF 3.5 month outlook. Possibly below average precipitation in SE-Florida area. Granted, those are relatively distant predictions of averages, doesn't mean we won't get some weirdness in there.

"Ph'nglui mglw'napalma Funkthulhu R'Lincolnea wgah'palm fhtagn"
"In his house at Lincoln, dread Funkthulhu plants palm trees."

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Interestingly, this solar max is the weakest one is the last 100 years. But we are going to be headed toward a minimum...that is the relevant point. Another interesting potential climatic impact is the temperature oscillation in the Pacific Ocean. By most accounts it is starting a cooling phase. So while this winter may not be particularly cold...it seems some major systems may be aligning to bring us some chilling. Gonna be interesting to watch and measure over the next couple of decades.

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I agree with all of your points...I have been reading, though, that the northern ice sheet is advancing at a very rapid pace which concerns me.

Additionally, we have had the coolest August that I can remember and the forecast does not appear to have much in the way of typical summer temps.

Axel, I hope you are correct in your prediction;...I just fear that you are not. Maybe my old bones just hate winter....period.

John Case

Brentwood CA

Owner and curator of Hana Keu Garden

USDA Zone 9b more or less, Sunset Zone 14 in winter 9 in summer

"Its always exciting the first time you save the world. Its a real thrill!"

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I agree with all of your points...I have been reading, though, that the northern ice sheet is advancing at a very rapid pace which concerns me.

Additionally, we have had the coolest August that I can remember and the forecast does not appear to have much in the way of typical summer temps.

Axel, I hope you are correct in your prediction;...I just fear that you are not. Maybe my old bones just hate winter....period.

I'm with you. Not a fan of cold.
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I agree with all of your points...I have been reading, though, that the northern ice sheet is advancing at a very rapid pace which concerns me.

Additionally, we have had the coolest August that I can remember and the forecast does not appear to have much in the way of typical summer temps.

Axel, I hope you are correct in your prediction;...I just fear that you are not. Maybe my old bones just hate winter....period.

A cool August correlates more with a mild Winter than a cold one. An advancing ice sheet makes for a stronger jet stream and less intrusion of arctic air into lower latitudes. It does mean colder Winters for higher latitudes.

Given Siberia has been experiencing record heat this summer with sustained 90's over several days, I have a hard time believing in an advancing ice sheet.

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I agree with all of your points...I have been reading, though, that the northern ice sheet is advancing at a very rapid pace which concerns me.

Additionally, we have had the coolest August that I can remember and the forecast does not appear to have much in the way of typical summer temps.

Axel, I hope you are correct in your prediction;...I just fear that you are not. Maybe my old bones just hate winter....period.

The northern Ice Sheet is still melting. We generally don't see the north ice minimum unitil nearly the end of August or even early September. We're not going to lose as much ice as we did last year (2012 as an all time low record), but we are well on the way to a below average ice minimum for 2013.

"Ph'nglui mglw'napalma Funkthulhu R'Lincolnea wgah'palm fhtagn"
"In his house at Lincoln, dread Funkthulhu plants palm trees."

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Looks to me, based on the attached, that it is colder in the Arctic now than in a number of years, if you can believe the graph.....I am not a meteorologist nor a climate scientist, just someone who does not want it to be cold..

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Using data from the 70s as a baseline gives a meaningless comparison as Carl Sagan was predicting nuclear winter at the time....

BTW, I am fan of global warming...

John Case

Brentwood CA

Owner and curator of Hana Keu Garden

USDA Zone 9b more or less, Sunset Zone 14 in winter 9 in summer

"Its always exciting the first time you save the world. Its a real thrill!"

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Looks to me, based on the attached, that it is colder in the Arctic now than in a number of years, if you can believe the graph.....I am not a meteorologist nor a climate scientist, just someone who does not want it to be cold..

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Using data from the 70s as a baseline gives a meaningless comparison as Carl Sagan was predicting nuclear winter at the time....

BTW, I am fan of global warming...

Both of those links show current 2013 sea-ice extent to be on the lower edge of the standard deviation of the 1980-2010 average. Less sea-ice means less solar radiation is being reflected back into space, less reflection means more absorption, and more absorption of solar radiation leads us to having a warmer polar sea in general.

The relationship to the temperature of the ocean and the intensity of that year's winter is complicated. Obviously a warmer sea means more heat, but it also means more water vapor. More water vapor means more clouds, and more clouds can mean more trapping of heat. But it can also lead to more snow which increases the amount of solar radiation reflected into space (albedo), and the clouds themselves also reflect back into space. All that being said, more heat is more energy, more energy means storms may be more powerful. Storms tend to break up sea ice but also stir up colder water from the deeper ocean. (cycles within cycles of feedback loops! I could do this forever! :D)

So, anyway, yeah. We're probably on track for a slightly above average temperature winter in the Arctic. As Axel said, a higher temperature Arctic weakens the jet stream, and can allow it to dip down to lower latitudes. So while the average temperature of the arctic may be above average, individual storm events that penetrate to the mid latitudes could be stronger and more frequent this winter. And even above average Arctic temps are still damned cold compared to the temps in the lower 48, so those storms will suck.

Edited by Funkthulhu

"Ph'nglui mglw'napalma Funkthulhu R'Lincolnea wgah'palm fhtagn"
"In his house at Lincoln, dread Funkthulhu plants palm trees."

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  • 3 months later...

Too all of you that tried to relax me.....

It seems pretty clear that you all have as little idea than I as what winter has in store.

I use a more observational means of prediction....

1) The dove season opener Sep 1 was blown out as the doves moved south very early (did they know something?)

2) Normally resident Canada geese seem to be out if the area, (may be due to some holiday in the south?)

3) Ground temps are cooler this year than in several years in the past.

Maybe I shouldn't worry about winter but I harken to 1988......it was as real to me as the Kennedy assassination. :mrlooney:

John Case

Brentwood CA

Owner and curator of Hana Keu Garden

USDA Zone 9b more or less, Sunset Zone 14 in winter 9 in summer

"Its always exciting the first time you save the world. Its a real thrill!"

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The good news about this is it will result in more frequent La Ninas which generally result in warm, dry winters in my area.

http://dailycaller.com/2013/12/05/report-scientists-predict-a-century-of-global-cooling/

Martin Farris, San Angelo, TX

San Angelo Cold Hardy Palms and Cycads

Jul - 92F/69F, Jan - 55F/31F

Lows:

02-03: 18F;

03-04: 19F;

04-05: 17F;

05-06: 11F;

06-07: 13F;

07-08: 14F 147.5 Freezing Degree-Hours http://www.palmtalk.org/forum/index.php?sh...ee+hours\;

08-09: 23F;

09-10: 12F 467.6 Freezing Degree Hours, Average Temperature During Freeze 24.2F;

10-11: 13F 1,059.5 Freezing Degree Hours with Strong Winds/Rain/Snow/Sleet, Average Temperature During Freeze 19.4F;

Record low -4F in 1989 (High of 36F that p.m.) 1,125.2 freezing degree hours, Average Temperature During Freeze 13.6F;

Record Freeze 1983: 2,300.3 Freezing Degree Hours with a low of 5F, Average Temperature During Freeze 13.7F.

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Too all of you that tried to relax me.....

It seems pretty clear that you all have as little idea than I as what winter has in store.

I use a more observational means of prediction....

1) The dove season opener Sep 1 was blown out as the doves moved south very early (did they know something?)

2) Normally resident Canada geese seem to be out if the area, (may be due to some holiday in the south?)

3) Ground temps are cooler this year than in several years in the past.

Maybe I shouldn't worry about winter but I harken to 1988......it was as real to me as the Kennedy assassination. :mrlooney:

Hmmm, no one has a clue since weather forecasts go down the toilet past about 12 hours. The atmosphere is a nice non-linear chaotic system that doesn't lend itself to a lot of determinism when it comes to long term predictions. So yes, your guess is as good as mine.

This Winter is shaping up to have a real cold start, but that doesn't mean it's going to remain that way. The pattern we see now usually precedes major pattern changes, so let's hope that pesky East Pacific High gives way and lets the storm door open to the West.

Not sure what you're complaining about, though. From what I understand you totally dodged the bullet altogether so far.

Meanwhile, enjoy a fun Youtube video of Space weather:

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John may have dodged the bullet, but as usual my area of W TX took a direct hit. It's 24F outside right now after a low of 19F this am. Barely and only briefly made it to 32F yesterday. I am so ready for winter to be over between this cold spell and the last one two weeks ago where we stayed around 30F for several days with freezing drizzle off and on...

Martin Farris, San Angelo, TX

San Angelo Cold Hardy Palms and Cycads

Jul - 92F/69F, Jan - 55F/31F

Lows:

02-03: 18F;

03-04: 19F;

04-05: 17F;

05-06: 11F;

06-07: 13F;

07-08: 14F 147.5 Freezing Degree-Hours http://www.palmtalk.org/forum/index.php?sh...ee+hours\;

08-09: 23F;

09-10: 12F 467.6 Freezing Degree Hours, Average Temperature During Freeze 24.2F;

10-11: 13F 1,059.5 Freezing Degree Hours with Strong Winds/Rain/Snow/Sleet, Average Temperature During Freeze 19.4F;

Record low -4F in 1989 (High of 36F that p.m.) 1,125.2 freezing degree hours, Average Temperature During Freeze 13.6F;

Record Freeze 1983: 2,300.3 Freezing Degree Hours with a low of 5F, Average Temperature During Freeze 13.7F.

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This warmth in Tampa Bay is kinda scary. It has been 80f+ - including some middle 80'sF - for a week now, and this week is to "cool" to upper 70'sF by Thursday. Humid, too. When the real cold hits, it will be a shock for sure. Thanksgiving morning hit 37F and I am seeing some residual damage on tropical stuff (not palms)...just light, like dropping leaves and some light brown spotting. I am sure it was the shock of the cold that got them as it was in the 80'sF before, and quickly warmed right afterwards. We always get our turn!

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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I always believe in averages... For example, if a place is really hot like Tampa, will get a nasty freeze sometime early next year.

Or the flipside, if it is cold, then more warm weather is coming. Cold winter, than a warmer one, etc.

Well, a couple years or so back we got hit with a nasty 5 days of cold here in zone 9B. It was in the 20s for like 5-6 days straight (2nd week of December). Very prolonged and unusual, but we never did hit 32F again that winter, which is unusual. We can hit 31, 30 on occasion etc.

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Mother Nature still has a few shots left in the gun.....

John Case

Brentwood CA

Owner and curator of Hana Keu Garden

USDA Zone 9b more or less, Sunset Zone 14 in winter 9 in summer

"Its always exciting the first time you save the world. Its a real thrill!"

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