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redant

August 2013 stock market ramblings

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redant

I would have to say false - I just wanted to make sure after several months of this back and forth that you weren't feeling beat up on - because we had been a little hard on you. But it doesn't surprise me, since you have misinterpreted almost everything else I have tried to explain. And yes, anything to get more views is part of my job (over 800 on this topic alone).

Are you trying to say you have only been joking around this whole time - that would explain a lot? But thanks for being a good sport.

Dean-

come on man.

you are not going to admit you wanted me to keep the viewership of the forum up ?

I still have the PM emails you sent me .

Sounds like blackmail to me Dean, better send out a packet of your most valuable palm seeds ASAP

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redant

Didn't these stock threads cause Vincent to voluntarily stumphead himself?

:floor:

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trioderob

What the heck happened ????

they shut down the Nas and something really odd happened to Apples chart

you guys know whats up ?

.......................he stumpheaded himself............that is rich.

Edited by trioderob

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Moose

I told you all, I predicted the recent market correction.

Sell, sell, sell !

I'm outta here ...

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Dypsisdean

Dean-

come on man.

you are not going to admit you wanted me to keep the viewership of the forum up ?

I still have the PM emails you sent me .

Not sure what you're trying to get at???

But since you brought it up - here's the gist of my one and only PM to you last month:

"Rob, I wanted to touch base with you to say thanks for being a good sport, and not taking the stock picking topics personally."

"I wanted to see what some good natured controversy could gin up in the way of views/posts, like it did in the good old days."

If anyone cares to read the entire PM, just send Rob a request via PM and he has my permission to add you to the conversation. Then you can even add your comments/feedback if you care to. No need for Rob to post the entire thing here.

By the amount of views the stock market threads were getting, I thought people were enjoying the subject matter and "lively" discussions - and that the activity was good for the forum. For some time I had wanted to see if well mannered debate among friends was possible on the forum - and this seemed like a good opportunity to show that we could afford to loosen our strict Forum Rules a bit. And that doing so would increase views/traffic.

But differences of opinion can get out of hand, and I wanted to assure privately that you weren't having a problem with any of the criticism. I was hoping that you were comfortable continuing to be yourself and didn't mind the differences of opinion. If you had expressed any reservations, I would have moderated the topic in accordance with those reservations.

But if you want to think that my primary intention was a request for you "to keep the viewership of the forum up?" - feel free.

FYI - here is a comparison of a great palm topic, with great photos, with this topic - both originally posted about the same time. More views/replies on this one - go figure.

post-430-0-53319500-1377211784_thumb.png

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Dypsisdean

Dean-

got one for you.

you always talk about "buy and hold"

what if you were a man who was a professional in India.

You purchased the small and mid cap index's of your country.

your stocks would now today be down 80% from 2008

so now they must go up 400 % just to break even.

I know that its India but the rule should work everywhere .......................no ?

I always like to check the numbers - and wonder where Rob got his. It looks to me as if the India stock market is pretty much where it was in Jan 2008. And if you had bought 6-9 months earlier or later and just held, you would be up big time today.

BTW - it jumped over 400 pts today.

post-430-0-61245000-1377217107_thumb.png

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trioderob

Dean-

once again.

you pick only the time frames or indexes that serve your point and leave out what does not fit your plan.

you notice that I talked about the SMALL caps of India in my post.

just like how you will only talk about how you have done the last 2 years during the start of the leg up.

as I said - a person who purchased the small caps of India my not be happy

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=BSE-SMLCAP.BO#symbol=bse-smlcap.bo;range=20100916,20130819;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

and Dean - you sent me more than one email about getting viewership up

Edited by trioderob

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Dypsisdean

Dean-

once again.

you pick only the time frames or indexes that serve your point and leave out what does not fit your plan.

Isn't that exactly what you did?

I give up.

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redant

Tank should be happy today, DDD busting out to new highs.

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tank

Tank should be happy today, DDD busting out to new highs.

We'll see if it can sustain the lift over $50. My hope was for it to get to 55 or 60 but after it set up camp right under 50 for a few months I was thinking of taking profits and putting it somewhere else. I have been generally happy over the past couple weeks with most of my investments, especially after AAPL appears to be digging itself out of its hole.

Only thing I've been unhappy with is my PAUAX. Kinda got talked into it by the handler of my IRA. Went against my avoidance of managed funds. Looked good for a few months and then the bottom dropped out. Hard to watch it go down while everything else goes up. I know why its happening, just trying to make a decision on what to do with it.

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redant

Tank should be happy today, DDD busting out to new highs.

We'll see if it can sustain the lift over $50. My hope was for it to get to 55 or 60 but after it set up camp right under 50 for a few months I was thinking of taking profits and putting it somewhere else. I have been generally happy over the past couple weeks with most of my investments, especially after AAPL appears to be digging itself out of its hole.

Only thing I've been unhappy with is my PAUAX. Kinda got talked into it by the handler of my IRA. Went against my avoidance of managed funds. Looked good for a few months and then the bottom dropped out. Hard to watch it go down while everything else goes up. I know why its happening, just trying to make a decision on what to do with it.

This is the reason why your broker likes the pimco fund.,

Maximum Sales Fees

PAUAX
Initial

5.50%

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tank

Tank should be happy today, DDD busting out to new highs.

We'll see if it can sustain the lift over $50. My hope was for it to get to 55 or 60 but after it set up camp right under 50 for a few months I was thinking of taking profits and putting it somewhere else. I have been generally happy over the past couple weeks with most of my investments, especially after AAPL appears to be digging itself out of its hole.

Only thing I've been unhappy with is my PAUAX. Kinda got talked into it by the handler of my IRA. Went against my avoidance of managed funds. Looked good for a few months and then the bottom dropped out. Hard to watch it go down while everything else goes up. I know why its happening, just trying to make a decision on what to do with it.

This is the reason why your broker likes the pimco fund.,

Maximum Sales Fees

PAUAX
Initial

5.50%

And I knew that! At the time when I picked it up it seemed like a reasonably safe stable bet. Hasn't been behaving like that over the past several months. I know why its not performing well, I just need to decide if I should wait it out or shift it to something else within pimco. This fund has a lot going on.... and a good portion of it is not doing well. Good news is that I'm not really in the hole on it, bad news is that I should be taking advantage of an up market.

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Bags

Tank should be happy today, DDD busting out to new highs.

We'll see if it can sustain the lift over $50. My hope was for it to get to 55 or 60 but after it set up camp right under 50 for a few months I was thinking of taking profits and putting it somewhere else. I have been generally happy over the past couple weeks with most of my investments, especially after AAPL appears to be digging itself out of its hole.

Only thing I've been unhappy with is my PAUAX. Kinda got talked into it by the handler of my IRA. Went against my avoidance of managed funds. Looked good for a few months and then the bottom dropped out. Hard to watch it go down while everything else goes up. I know why its happening, just trying to make a decision on what to do with it.

This is the reason why your broker likes the pimco fund.,

Maximum Sales Fees

PAUAX
Initial

5.50%

Ouch! The one thing that I have come to learn is that financial advisers in general (not all) are in the business to make money for themselves and not necessarily to do what is best for you. The biggest contributing factor to a funds return is the fees it charges. Low fee funds beat hight fee funds. I like the Vanguard index funds with fees of less than .10% for many of the funds.

This article sums up why fees and taxes matter and just how difficult it is to beat the market.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/22/your-money/stocks-and-bonds/22stra.html?_r=0

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tank

BTW,

Apple seems to be trying to break out of where its been camped for the past couple weeks.

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redant

BTW,

Apple seems to be trying to break out of where its been camped for the past couple weeks.

"I have come to learn is that financial advisers in general (not all) are in the business to make money for themselves and not necessarily to do what is best for you."

I had pretty much written the same, then deleted it as to not upset anyone but 30+ years in the business and I would have to agree.

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Dypsisdean

Great, just as the market seems to be finding some support, now this. <_<
You called it - the market started falling right on queue - almost to the minute.

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trioderob

good-

Glad to see the above post Dean.

I went in big time at the close.

SPX 500

you guys are a fade.............

Edited by trioderob

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Bags

Anyone own or watch Facebook? Some Co-workers and I each put in $100 and bought the day of the IPO with the plan of using the money in a year or two for a party. We doubled down at $32 and watched it drop to $18. We figured we were headed for a party with a 12 pack of beer and some hot dogs. Now looks like we are on our way to bottle service in Vegas.

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Dypsisdean

good-

Glad to see the above post Dean.

I went in big time at the close.

SPX 500

you guys are a fade.............

Right - And if the market had finished higher, you would have conveniently bought at the time of your call. Next time instead of a BUY BUY BUY, how about a BOUGHT BOUGHT BOUGHT.

post-11-0-85988700-1377548992_thumb.png

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trioderob

tomorrow could be a huge down day - don't give up Dean - you might still be able to get me.

any better call than

" I think we may see a little down this year before the trend continues up"

or

" I bought at the bottom of this bull market so i cant go wrong no matter what happens from this point"

Edited by trioderob

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Dypsisdean

tomorrow could be a huge down day - don't give up Dean - you might still be able to get me.

any better call than

" I think we may see a little down this year before the trend continues up"

or

" I bought at the bottom of this bull market so i cant go wrong no matter what happens from this point"

For about the tenth time - Rob, I can not make "calls." I am not smart enough. I am leaving that to you since you consistently "nail it."

I only try to spot longer term trends - just like your idol.

"4. Playing the Big Trend Requires Patience--Livermore used to say that he did not make his money trading but instead sitting and waiting. This has to be one of the hardest lessons for traders who feel they have to be trading every day. Livermore would sometimes hold his positions for over a year as long as the stock acted right."

Something like this.

post-11-0-07304700-1377551178_thumb.png

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Dypsisdean

What I don't get Rob is that you think you follow Jessie Livermore's advice - but you don't.

"3. Trade for the Big Money--Livermore was not interested in scalping 2-5% on some quick trade. He had made this mistake when he was young. By the time he matured he knew that it was simply not worth trading for small wins. He wanted to make alot of money and the only way you can do this is to take a large position and ride the line of least resistance. He played big trends for 30%-200%. That is how you make a fortune in the stock market."

Sound familiar?????

You may wish to brush up on what you think he advised.

Lessons from Legendary Trader Jesse Livermore

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trioderob

Dean-

the back and forth means nothing.

the bottom line is what % you made at the end of the year vs what you had total -at the start

so lets say you purchased Tesla which just tripled - but you were in 2% and when it was all said and done you only had a 7% year (including your other stock investments) - thats not so great.

this is all a bunch of horse "you know what" - bottom line is all that counts.

end of year lets talk about how we all did total % wise

agree ?

Edited by trioderob

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Dypsisdean

Dean-

the back and forth means nothing.

the bottom line is what % you made at the end of the year vs what you had total -at the start

so lets say you purchased Tesla which just tripled - but you were in 2% and when it was all said and done you only had a 7% year (including your other stock investments) - thats not so great.

this is all a bunch of horse "you know what" - bottom line is all that counts.

end of year lets talk about how we all did total % wise

agree ?

Not interested.

First, I am not in a contest with anyone. And second, I have known too many guys who always managed to do better than me at the track - never lost a buck - and they always caught the biggest fish.

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redant

Dean-

the back and forth means nothing.

the bottom line is what % you made at the end of the year vs what you had total -at the start

so lets say you purchased Tesla which just tripled - but you were in 2% and when it was all said and done you only had a 7% year (including your other stock investments) - thats not so great.

this is all a bunch of horse "you know what" - bottom line is all that counts.

end of year lets talk about how we all did total % wise

agree ?

Not interested.

First, I am not in a contest with anyone. And second, I have known too many guys who always managed to do better than me at the track - never lost a buck - and they always caught the biggest fish.

You have the patients of a saint :bemused:

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Dypsisdean

You have the patients of a saint :bemused:

I think growing palms has helped. :)

What's funny is that when we had a contest where results could be verified, he was MIA.

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redant

So many headwinds, just seems hard to imagine much upside. We have Syria, US debt limits which never go well and Rob giving a buy buy buy. Might be time to purchase some insurance. :sick:

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tank

Up %13 for the year so far. Apple rebounding will be a very good thing for me, if it indeed happens, $550 or $600 would be spectacular. My big winners so far have been CLWR, S, and hopefully DDD. Apple is still a loser but is back right below where I picked it up. Overall I still would have been a little better with everything in index funds, to date, but I suppose that would be boring.

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tank

Today is a good day to not look at your stocks.

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trioderob

today is ugly but this is the perfect springboard for higher prices.

everyone is ultra "beared up"

I am going to fade Redant and buy more

tip: when you see people worried about all the front page headlines you know its time to go long.

its all the things that are NOT being talked about that matter most.

Edited by trioderob

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trioderob

for example:

while Redant worriied about the headlines he missed this:

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Calendars/Economic/Releases/conf.htm

it talks about all the negativity - but it brings up this very important point

"Fortunately, sentiment indicators do not play a major role in
consumption growth.
As long as income growth remains positive,
consumption should do the same regardless of the performance of consumer
sentiment."


Edited by trioderob

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redant

"I am going to fade Redant and buy more"

Oh #@*!, now we are in trouble. Time to buy more insurance.

On the positive side this might give me an opportunity to get back into TBT soon.

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Dypsisdean

Again Rob does the exact opposite of his idol. Jesse Livermore "would never average down which he though was suicide." But even more perplexing is he is now advocating the contrarian strategy I utilize and that he has been bashing - go figure. However, I don't sense any panic here, so I'm waiting to add to anything. We still haven't had a 10% correction for a very long time.

At least the 10 yr. is down, and I see the telecoms stopped declining and bucked the market today. They might be a good place to hide here.

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trioderob

Dean-

please know what you are talking about before posting things against me.

that is for an individual stock - not for an index of 500 stocks

an individual stock can keep going down into the abyss and NEVER recover - 500 stocks are not going to do that.

no panic ?

the VIX "skyrocked" today and we are deeply oversold

and in the end the ONLY thing that matters is what % TOTAL you are up or down for the year.

everything else is just a bunch a "jibba jabba"

Edited by trioderob

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Dypsisdean

Dean-

please know what you are talking about before posting things against me.

that is for an individual stock - not for an index of 500 stocks

an individual stock can keep going down into the abyss and NEVER recover - 500 stocks are not going to do that.

no panic ?

the VIX "skyrocked" today and we are deeply oversold

and in the end the ONLY thing that matters is what % TOTAL you are up or down for the year.

everything else is just a bunch a "jibba jabba"

I'll quote Rob when he accused me of trying "to average in at ever lower prices - you ride bear markets into the abyss - you break every classic rule of trading." And didn't he just tell us about the index of Indian stocks that declined 80%? Or keep reminding us of the 2007-2008 abyss of 60-70% decline in our market indices? Or the NASDAQ index bust that was even worse?

However, in this case I happen to agree with him - he was just a little early yesterday, and maybe even today. I remember anticipating this a month ago and Rob poo-pooed it.

Just between you and I, I anticipated a consolidation or trading range scenario through the summer and early fall that I think is in place. I wouldn't be surprised to see the market retest the recent lows before heading up again late this year and early 2014.

(will say this: the scenario you are calling for is the same as everyone and their brother is calling -tells me it wont happen !)

We are now 100 DOW pts from those lows - in other words a retest.

Then interestingly a few days later on July 31...

I jumped back in again-

even tho the market sold off end of day - see the fed statements today as Bullish and important

here is my call:

BUY BUY BUY

And then the next day, within hours of the beginning of this decline for the retest...

my indicators and gut tell be that there is MUCH more upside left.

It is now -600 DOW pts later - almost straight down. Maybe his best timed worst call yet.

post-430-0-29142700-1377639197_thumb.png

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Moose

You have the patients of a saint :bemused:

I think growing palms has helped. :)

What's funny is that when we had a contest where results could be verified, he was MIA.

Hmmmm, valid point :innocent:

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redant

from Rob... "the VIX "skyrocked" today and we are deeply oversold"

And so what gives you the deeply oversold? WTI crude now at 109 a barrel. Things start going badly in Syria could send crude to much higher levels, see how that pans out for consumer confidence. I'm not attempting to know anything about the future, just stating what some of the obvious headwinds that could cause further deterioration of the market.

from Rob... "Redant-

the bulls have been punished severally today.

the arms index is not even in oversold territory today

don't try to be a hero"


This particular situation involves to many unknowns, using some insurance so I can keep my positions and sleep at night seems more prudent then buying anything. Only time will tell and I hope I'm wrong.

Edited by redant

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