August 2013 stock market ramblings

[Dypsisdean]

Dean-

you still never talked about what you did in end of 2007 -2008 when your long position lost 67%

We have been through this before. The only positions that lost 67% were the ones that were taken at the very top and sold at the very bottom. And anyone who managed to pull that off, didn't belong in the game in the first place.

You really have to ask what I was doing in 2007-8?

For my investment portfolio I kept averaging in - never lost a cent - because I didn't sell anything. I stopped adding to that in 2010 and started averaging out last year - 10% per year.

For the beginnings of my trading portfolio I did what a contrarian does. I tried to buy cheap stocks at the bottom. I got burned buying some ultra-cheap bank stocks that went BK. But some other bargins have since recouped those losses.

Oh BTW - I did take a flyer on a few NASDAQ stocks back during the tech bubble when I knew less - Boston Chicken and WebVan - lost some money there. What do you want me to say, that I never ever lost money on a stock? These days I try never to take more than a 5-10% loss on a trade.

I would like to think I am older and wiser today. I am sure of at least half of that statement.

[Dypsisdean]

My call for tomorrow.

Down we go at the open. Then we could go lower. Or it will turn around if the internals look okay.

But that will happen only if we don't go up at the open, in which case we may turn around and go lower unless the Fed changes the game plan which will send us higher.

[redant]

I find it all fun, and the 5 week game was actually very profitable (DRN mystery player, thank you) . I have made many REAL calls, trades I have really made, Rob just seems to make things up, but really would it be as amusing without him?

Edited August 9, 2013 by redant

[redant]

My call for tomorrow.

Down we go at the open. Then we could go lower. Or it will turn around if the internals look okay.

But that will happen only if we don't go up at the open, in which case we may turn around and go lower unless the Fed changes the game plan which will send us higher.

[Dypsisdean]

I find it all fun, and the 5 week game was actually very profitable (DRN mystery player, thank you) . I have made many REAL calls, trades I have really made, Rob just seems to make things up, but really would it be as amusing without him?

Yep - I would be saddened if Rob really chose to bail for good.

But we could always channel his mentor if need be.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100950234

[redant]

I find it all fun, and the 5 week game was actually very profitable (DRN mystery player, thank you) . I have made many REAL calls, trades I have really made, Rob just seems to make things up, but really would it be as amusing without him?

Yep - I would be saddened if Rob really chose to bail for good.

But we could always channel his mentor if need be.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100950234

Hey! I was gonna post that for Rob. On a serious note though while I say I'm a long term bull I don't discount any news, thoughts or opinions.

[trioderob]

Dean / Redant-

go ahead and talk smack.

but if you are going to do that -then at least be fair and post what % you are up -of your total net worth - for 2013.

and just for fun what % total net worth - you are up for the last 10 years - so for example you had net worth XXX - its now YYYY

what % per year average did your net worth go up.

(total % / 10 = average)

i am sure you will agree that THAT is the true bottom line - it shows % richer you are

if you had alot of money and only went in 5 % that not the same as being ALL IN

(doing great on a trade is great - but how much you are up on the TOTAL you had -is much more telling )

Edited August 9, 2013 by trioderob

[trioderob]

whats nice about my above post is it will paint a very clear picture negative or positive about Deans buying and holding method.

it will show the true "bottom line"

but here is something to think about:

The investors who
entered at point 1 in 1998 have made a 31 percent return over 15 years.
That's about 2 percent per year!!! The investor who entered at point 2
has made essentially a ZERO return over 13 years. During that time he
has twice suffered a 48 percent draw down. The investors who entered at
point 3 has in theory made a 93 percent return over 12 years but he has
watched his capital go from a 93 percent return and then drop to below
zero in 2009. This is still an average of 7.75 percent per year.

The message is clear. The money comes
from trading the rally uptrends. It's also made trading short on the
retreats. You do not have to buy exact tops and bottoms to make a better
return. Returns on capital from investing do not come from buy and
hold.

Edited August 9, 2013 by trioderob

[redant]

"The message is clear. The money comes
from trading the rally uptrends. It's also made trading short on the
retreats. You do not have to buy exact tops and bottoms to make a better
return. Returns on capital from investing do not come from buy and
hold."

In a perfect world Rob, that is true if you could. And I doubt people would feel comfortable with your request for the amusement of this forum.

[Dypsisdean]

"Returns on capital from investing do not come from buy and

hold."

I doubt people would feel comfortable with your request for the amusement of this forum.

This is not a competition. It is a way to share knowledge and have some fun while doing so. But it is interesting that Rob asks a lot of questions, some of them getting personal now - but he has avoided almost all those asked of him. Does anyone have any idea if Rob is long or short the market today? Or what percentage invested he is? I have stated I am long and margined, and have been so for years. And Rob?????

But to help share some more knowledge. Some bullet points:

- 80% of my net worth is in real estate. I have made more money there than in the stock market. And it has been long term buy and hold. The bulk of my nest egg has come from one piece of property held for almost 45 yrs. So the statement that "returns on capital from investing do not come from buy and hold" is just not true.

- And if you have been paying attention, I have never said once that I have beat the market by trading. In fact, I never have until the last 5 years - using the strategy that I have been outlining. That is why I don't suggest to anyone to try and time the market. I used to think like Rob, and it lost me money - just like it does with almost all money managers trying to beat the market by short term trading. The strategy I use today is finally working for me. But it is still too early to declare it a long term winner. But risk management - watching carefully not take a big loss by placing stops. And using a longer time frame while still trying to time, is working for me.

- Longer term buy and hold stocks/real estate does work - and is the foundation to successful wealth creation. But it only works well over a lifetime. Consider the Rule of 72 - the most important rule there is for long term investing. It states that if you can get 10% a year ("Throughout stock market history, the average yearly return for periods of 25 years or longer has been around 9-10%. Here we mean total return -- i.e., including dividends."), your investment will double about every 7 years. If you can get 12%, it will double every 6 years.

So the math doesn't lie. A $25,000 investment made 50 years ago and held earning 10% per year, without doing or adding anything will double seven times - or grow to $3.2 million dollars. If you were lucky enough to get 12% (like some well bought real estate) - that would be worth $6.4 million dollars. Of course there are taxes, and inflation, and with real estate there is maintenance, but if it is your own home - you get it all back when considering rent savings, tax breaks etc.

So, IMO the bottom line is, you shouldn't be doing any trading in the stock market until your own home is paid for, and your retirement is secure. And then only if you can sleep well at night not worried the next Crash is going to take you out. And don't hold any stocks if you might need that money in 5-10 yrs.

[Dypsisdean]

Rob's words of wisdom - "The money comes from trading the rally uptrends."

More words of wisdom - "Money comes from picking the right team on Sunday, and the fastest horse in the race."

So Rob, why stop there, why not trade the downtrends as well. That way you can make money everyday.

[trioderob]

Dean-

buying property in Hawaii in 1968 is a good thing.

I give you credit for that.

It must have be a sleepy little town back then,

great time and place to put some rare palms in the ground for sure.

Edited August 9, 2013 by trioderob

[redant]

Dean-

buying property in Hawaii in 1968 is a good thing.

I give you credit for that.

It must have be a sleepy little town back then,

great time and place to put some rare palms in the ground for sure.

I'm gonna guess it wasn't in HI, just a guess.

[Dypsisdean]

Redant is right - it wasn't Hawaii - it was in Leucadia - Rob will know it, others will not. But Rob's right about the sleepy town part. No one could understand why I would move away from the beach in San Diego to buy a run down avocado grove in the sticks, where dogs and horses were still welcome on the beach. Kind of like buying a distressed stock that nobody wants.

I bought the Hawaii property only ten years ago.

[trioderob]

"to buy a run down avocado grove"

.....................nice avocado grove.

I remember those days - girlfriend bought a house in Escondido for 65k

my friend had a house he picked up for 35k around when you bought and got grandfathered on the property tax ( do the math on that one)

Edited August 10, 2013 by trioderob

[Dypsisdean]

Rob - just to be clear - I'm not trying to boast that I was a great investing genius back then. It was 100% pure luck, and a lot of work along the way.

[redant]

Exited my position in TBT today, not sure why such weekness in bonds today but I'll take it. Look to re-establish at a later date. Little worried any stock market weekness may lead to bond strength for the short term.

[tank]

Thinking about picking up some FSLR.

[tank]

Picked up DDD at $35. Keep thinking it will rise above and beyond $50 so trying to be patient.

Apple seems to be picking up steam, I guess in response to the impending announcement of new product releases. Will be reasonably annoyed if the new iphone is basically a tweaked version of the iphone5, assuming that they will be releasing both a "cheap" iphone along with an updated "normal" iphone.

[redant]

Thinking about picking up some FSLR.

That's one of the companies on this list I posted a couple of days ago.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100946609

Solar companies are extremely volatile, I have stayed away from in the past. You seem to have an appetite for the more "exciting" stocks.

FSLR unfortunately is in direct competition with Chinese solar panel makers

Aug 13 (Reuters) - Chinese solar panel maker Trina Solar Ltd said it

would supply 1.1 million solar panels to Sempra Energy's 345-megawatt (MW)

Copper Mountain Solar 3 project in Nevada.

Trina Solar's bigger rival, U.S.-based First Solar Inc(FSLR) , had earlier clinched deals

to supply panels to two other solar plants developed by Sempra Energy --

150-MW Copper Mountain 2 and 58-MW Copper

Mountain 1.

Trina Solar did not specify how much revenue the deal would generate.

China-made solar panels

sell at an average of about 66 cents per watt, according to

industry estimates.

Shares of Trina Solar were up 5 percent before the bell. They closed at

$7.55 on the New York Stock Exchange on Monday.

(Reporting by Swetha Gopinath in Bangalore; Editing by Maju

Samuel)

Edited August 13, 2013 by redant

[tank]

My take on Trina was that they continued to post losses even while gaining greater share of the US market, basically charging less for a product than the cost to make the product. Not sure if this one project will directly pop FSLR long term.

[tank]

Also don't think that the one project will cause Trina to blow up. Although the project is big. When I say blow up, I mean beyond where its at now.

Edited August 13, 2013 by tank

[trioderob]

Apple jumped

you guys win.

[Dypsisdean]

Apple jumped

you guys win.

Interesting developments - however nobody wins until they "cash in." But it looks like a classic break out from a nice base - something I like to see when trying to pick a major inflection point.

[tank]

AAPL Toying with $500. Must have been some conversation between Icahn and Cook.

[Dypsisdean]

Exited my position in TBT today, not sure why such weekness in bonds today but I'll take it. Look to re-establish at a later date. Little worried any stock market weekness may lead to bond strength for the short term.

Good move I would say - Looks like you got the lion's share of that move.

[Dypsisdean]

AAPL Toying with $500. Must have been some conversation between Icahn and Cook.

Boy, I'm tempted to take my profits now. Hard to pass up such quick money.

[tank]

AAPL Toying with $500. Must have been some conversation between Icahn and Cook.

Boy, I'm tempted to take my profits now. Hard to pass up such quick money.

I'd assume that hitting $500 triggered a bunch of stops

[redant]

AAPL Toying with $500. Must have been some conversation between Icahn and Cook.

Boy, I'm tempted to take my profits now. Hard to pass up such quick money.

Yeah I'm toying with getting out and re-establishing lower if possible. It's one in my IRA so taxes not an issue on this one.

[redant]

It seems Soros is jumping into the apple sauce as well.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100964542

[redant]

Exited my position in TBT today, not sure why such weekness in bonds today but I'll take it. Look to re-establish at a later date. Little worried any stock market weekness may lead to bond strength for the short term.

Good move I would say - Looks like you got the lion's share of that move.

Missed calculation on my part, I thought lower stocks would

be the lead horse and support bonds. Instead higher perceived rates is the

lead, causing lower stocks (for today). So hard to get back on the bus once it

leaves the station, even as I have said plenty of times this is a bus to big

returns.

[trioderob]

3 days ago I got a

SELL SELL SELL

I ejected yesterday at the close

bearish until the 10 year breaks the trend

this is what i talking about you inflection point pickers

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^TNX+Interactive#symbol=^tnx;range=5d;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Edited August 15, 2013 by trioderob

[redant]

3 days ago I got a

SELL SELL SELL

I ejected yesterday at the close

bearish until the 10 year breaks the trend

this is what i talking about you inflection point pickers

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^TNX+Interactive#symbol=^tnx;range=5d;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Um just to amuse us what are you out of? what where you in, and to be clear for the future now you are out of everything or just outta here?

[trioderob]

what does it matter ?

this is about the market - not me.

kind of interesting cross roads here.

you and Dean dont think that uncle Ben's taper will amount to much.

today it did.

more important is that many stocks went up in parabolic fashion the past few months.

that does not normally end well -but could it this time.

or to put it in other terms:

DEAN - is this one of those rare "inflection points" ????

Edited August 15, 2013 by trioderob

[Dypsisdean]

3 days ago I got a

SELL SELL SELL

I ejected yesterday at the close

bearish until the 10 year breaks the trend

this is what i talking about you inflection point pickers

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^TNX+Interactive#symbol=^tnx;range=5d;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Did I call it???

My call --- before the end of the year there will be a big down day, and Rob will be convinced he saw it coming, and will remind us of this as it is occurring.

[Bags]

But Rob you already sold last week as the market were going to crash right then and "Not later". Now today when stocks are actually down you say you sold yesterday. Hmmm

Now is when its going to crash - not later.

(if it does crash at all)

Based on this:

CHICAGO (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve will probably reduce

its massive bond-buying stimulus programme later this year, and

depending on the economic data could do so as early as next month, a top

Fed official who is typically among the most dovish policymakers said

on Tuesday.

"We are quite likely to reduce

the flow of purchases rate starting later this year - I couldn't tell

you exactly which month that will be - and it's likely to wind down over

time in a couple or few stages," Charles Evans, president of the

Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, told reporters at the regional Fed bank's

headquarters.

Asked if he would rule out starting the cutbacks next month, Evans

said he "clearly" would not, becoming the third Fed official in two days

to suggest a September pullback is on the table.

SELL SELL SELL

[Dypsisdean]

what does it matter ?

this is about the market - not me.

kind of interesting cross roads here.

you and Dean dont think that uncle Ben's taper will amount to much.

today it did.

more important is that many stocks went up in parabolic fashion the past few months.

that does not normally end well -but could it this time.

or to put it in other terms:

DEAN - is this one of those rare "inflection points" ????

No - not even close. I see no evidence the market will continue to decline for the next several years. "Rare" means few and far between.

But I still think AAPL at 400 was one - which held up like a champion in today's down market.

And let's assume you did sell yesterday at the close - did that make you any money? Buying at the beginning of the year and holding all this time would have actually made you money. Buying AAPL a month or two ago would have made you money. Tell us something that will make us money, real time.

[Dypsisdean]

But Rob you already sold last week as the market were going to crash right then and "Not later". Now today when stocks are actually down you say you sold yesterday. Hmmm

As I said before - does anyone, including Rob, have a clue as to what positions or views Rob holds from day to day?

[trioderob]

Dean-

like I said - this is not about me - its about the market.

I also can say that in the last 2 years i have done fine - just like you have.

my guess is quite a few have done well in the market the last 2 years.

care to talk about the market ?

whats your take ?

I am picking up that you think this is a blip on the radar - not the start of an intermediate term downturn ??????

because if that's what you think- then I think you are wrong.

Edited August 15, 2013 by trioderob

[redant]

Dean-

like I said - this is not about me - its about the market.

I also can say that in the last 2 years i have done fine - just like you have.

my guess is quite a few have done well in the market the last 2 years.

care to talk about the market ?

whats your take ?

I am picking up that you think this is a blip on the radar - not the start of an intermediate term downturn ??????

because if that's what you think- then I think you are wrong.

Actually it is about you. Anyone can be a critic, forecaster, fortune teller, whatever when nothing is on the table. Coming out today AFTER a move down and saying you "sold" yesterday on the close has no merit as far as anyone is concerned. You are the only one who has participated in these games without any real calls, just a bunch of random forecasts that sooner or later out of just dumb luck one will come true, then your all over the I told you so bandwagon. As Dean said "Tell us something that will make us money, real time."

The market does have a great possibility of a correction but you could have said that a thousand times since the start of the bull market.

OK now I fell better

Edited August 15, 2013 by redant