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redant

August 2013 stock market ramblings

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redant

Just giving a new opportunity to talk about whats on your mind, whether it be BUY BUY BUY or SELL SELL SELL, or something more exciting.

I'm currently picking on some extremely over sold CEF (closed end funds). There are positives and negatives regarding this game. The positive is they have low volume so they get very oversold at times when people want to get out. The negative is they are low volume so it's hard to get out when you want to and sometimes hard to get in.

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Dypsisdean

I haven't played that game, but understand the concept and your thinking, and can't disagree.

Do you think this market has anything left between now and the end of the year?

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trioderob

Now is when its going to crash - not later.

(if it does crash at all)

Based on this:

CHICAGO (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve will probably reduce
its massive bond-buying stimulus programme later this year, and
depending on the economic data could do so as early as next month, a top
Fed official who is typically among the most dovish policymakers said
on Tuesday.


"We are quite likely to reduce
the flow of purchases rate starting later this year - I couldn't tell
you exactly which month that will be - and it's likely to wind down over
time in a couple or few stages," Charles Evans, president of the
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, told reporters at the regional Fed bank's
headquarters.


Asked if he would rule out starting the cutbacks next month, Evans
said he "clearly" would not, becoming the third Fed official in two days
to suggest a September pullback is on the table.

SELL SELL SELL

Edited by trioderob

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Dypsisdean

Rob - Is this the fourth or fifth time you have flipped in the last ten days? Two days ago you said you were bullish on the market, but not on Apple, and two days before that you were SELL SELL SELL, then a day before that you were BUY BUY BUY, and then two days before that, I think you were out, but then before that you said you were back in. How do you keep track?

By the way, I don't think a small taper in Sept. is going to surprise anyone. I know it won't surprise me. I'll bet you a no taper stance will help the market a touch, and a small taper won't have much of a lasting effect at all.

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tank

Tesla earnings report is tomorrow. Have to think that with the current momentum, a good ER will send this stock substantially higher. What do y'all think?

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trioderob

Dean-

you still don't get it.

something important happened - the fed flipped again.

and no the market is NOT sure whats going on. they know there is a taper-.

2 days ago there was hope it would be put off - but now its around the corner

read and learn:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-futures-fall-concern-over-112634410.html;_ylt=AhTdozgtLimdB46pEcBDvxWiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTN1YjBnZXNnBG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIE1lZ2F0cm9uIDIEcGtnAzhkZjBjZGVkLWEwMzQtMzc0ZS04Yjg2LWNkNTJiMTAyY2IwOQRwb3MDMQRzZWMDbWVnYXRyb24EdmVyAzdhNTRiOWUxLWZmNmMtMTFlMi1iZWZkLWZmZmMxNzhlNTAyNA--;_ylg=X3oDMTFkcW51ZGliBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3BtaA--;_ylv=3

Edited by trioderob

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trioderob

down we go...................

quote from the above link:

Stocks lost ground for a third consecutive session on Wednesday on
growing uncertainty over when the Federal Reserve may start to wind down
its stimulus, which has been a driving force behind the rally in
equities this year.

"I'll bet you a no taper stance will help the market a touch, and a small taper won't have much of a lasting effect at all." -

Dean

Edited by trioderob

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redant

I haven't played that game, but understand the concept and your thinking, and can't disagree.

Do you think this market has anything left between now and the end of the year?

I do think so, but the summer doldrums are upon us so unless some new out of the expected I would not expect much until late in the year.

I do feel better about the market now that we have a confirmed sell sell sell :mrlooney:

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redant

Tesla earnings report is tomorrow. Have to think that with the current momentum, a good ER will send this stock substantially higher. What do y'all think?

Well it looks like Tesla did well but stocks like that always tend to burn me so I'm not a player on this one.

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Dypsisdean

Dean-

you still don't get it.

something important happened - the fed flipped again.

It's you who doesn't get it. The Fed hasn't flipped at all. What people think the Fed is saying is what the media flips around. And whatever voting, and non-voting members say from day to day is not Fed policy - it's just a news story. Ben said that tapering will be data dependent - that is the official Fed policy - and it has not changed. I doubt if Ben even knows when he will taper, because it is the data that will make his decision for him. But you would like to believe the Fed changes its mind as often as you change yours. God help us if it did.

Do you really think it makes much of a difference in the grand scheme of things if tapering begins Sept or three months later? The bond market has already done the Fed's work for them. If it begins in Sept. that will just be an acknowledgement by the Fed that the economy is strong enough to begin standing on it's own.

Personally I think the benefits of tapering have run their course. More tapering is not going to yield any more positive results. What the market needs now is earnings, revenues, a better job market, and a better economy - not more easy money. So a stronger economy, slowly weaning itself off the cheap money, is what will give us the next bull leg up. So paradoxically I think a slight tapering will be a non event balanced by those who see it as the end of the ride, and those who see it as the beginning.

I think the Fed will be very careful not to taper if the markets are not sending sure signs of strength. So when the data supports that view, that is when the Fed will taper - that has been their thinking for quite a while now.

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Bags

Couldn't agree more Dean. Everyone knows it is coming and it will be a sign of an improving economy not the financial Armageddon Rob invisions. Market will probably pull back a bit but not enough to justify dumping everything.

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Dypsisdean

Tesla earnings report is tomorrow. Have to think that with the current momentum, a good ER will send this stock substantially higher. What do y'all think?

Well it looks like Tesla did well but stocks like that always tend to burn me so I'm not a player on this one.
I'm glad I resisted shorting this puppy. Age has definitely made me a better investor.

I'm curious Rob - how old are you?

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Dypsisdean

down we go...................

quote from the above link:

Stocks lost ground for a third consecutive session on Wednesday on

growing uncertainty over when the Federal Reserve may start to wind down

its stimulus, which has been a driving force behind the rally in

equities this year.

"I'll bet you a no taper stance will help the market a touch, and a small taper won't have much of a lasting effect at all." -

Dean

Another "down we go," but the DOW finished down only 48 pts, and if the futures at this moment are any indication, tomorrow it will open up 60 pts. Might be time to switch back to a BUY BUY BUY already. Either way Apple will be sending out a nice check to stockholders tomorrow.

And Rob, just because a reporter (who needs to come up with something to write about the market everyday) says the market did this or that because of this or that - does not make it so.

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tank

GLW (Corning Inc.) seems to be oversold. Not exactly sure why it took a dump over the past couple days. Earnings report seemed OK. May take the opportunity to pick some up.

Also, does anyone know anyone who actually owns a Tesla?

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redant

GLW (Corning Inc.) seems to be oversold. Not exactly sure why it took a dump over the past couple days. Earnings report seemed OK. May take the opportunity to pick some up.

Also, does anyone know anyone who actually owns a Tesla?

Doesn't look like much more then noise to me, not much of a sell off. At present levels doesn't seem to be a bad investment but it's not a trade for a short term bounce.

I don't know any Tesla owners but see a surprising number of them around. Of course around here nobody even bats an eye at a new Jag or Porsche and even a Mazerati barely gets a second look.

Edited by redant

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Bags

Yes ESV-

3.4 dividend that they are growing rapidly

PEG of .6 or so

Number one customer satisfaction rating

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Bags

Which 5 do you own?

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redant

Which 5 do you own?

NOV BMY AMAT QCOM VLO

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trioderob

Down we go again................

but the internals look much better and there is better news out of China

so we shall see it this is it.

Edited by trioderob

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Bags

So wrong so many times. I think the only one rob is trying to convince at this point is himself.

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trioderob

my calls have been accurate and i have indicated important events moving the market.

almost every single time these topics i brought up have become major stories that have moved the market.

even today i called real time as the market was negative that I felt it was about to turn around.and why.

you have added nothing and wont make a call of your own - yet are critical of me.

If I wanted to pick an arbitrary point 2 years ago like Dean does -believe me I have not missed out.on this bull market .

Edited by trioderob

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Bags

I actually added quite a bit about how short term capital gains taxes kill any returns you may have. I discussed how you would have to outperform by a very large margin to beat the market after takes. You ignored all of those things. All of the fancy charts in the world don't mean squat if you can't beat the IRS.

Are you telling me you are beating the market this year?

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trioderob

make a call about this market.

make any kind of a call at all

(all the IRS business is public knowledge available to anyone and not really subject to debate. - thanks for posting it anyway)

as far as me posting an actual figure - maybe this would make a nice thread for the end of the year.

everyone who has posted on these threads can state what % they are up or down for 2013.

i am sure everyone would agree that in the end thats all that matters anyhow.

I will be back end of the year for that thread - until then you guys can pick the winners.

i outta here.

Edited by trioderob

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Dypsisdean

my calls have been accurate and i have indicated important events moving the market

Two days of "down we go" and the market is essentially flat - call that accurate if you want.

There is nothing wrong with being wrong. What's wrong is not recognizing when you are wrong and adjust your thinking.

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Dypsisdean

Aaron has made his "call." He is long the market and averaging in. I'll bet you he has some nice unrealized gains. In my mind, that makes it a good call. I won't be surprised if he has outperformed me that last 5 years.

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tank

I have a feeling Rob will be back before the end of the year. That's my prediction.

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Bags

I know taxes are not earth shattering news. They just highlight why your day trading strategy sucks.

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trioderob

everyone is a genius in a bull market.

see you guys end of year

Edited by trioderob

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Dypsisdean

I know taxes are not earth shattering news. They just highlight why your day trading strategy sucks.

Not to mention the accounting nightmare. I pay for a software service that tracks and figures it for me - another expense.

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Dypsisdean

everyone is a genius in a bull market.

see you guys end of year

The genius is recognizing early when it's a bull market and getting on for the ride - and not jumping out every month or two afraid of the "crashes" and "down we goes."

You're not a genius in a bull market unless you are fully invested.

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trioderob

this is from a guy who back off his exposure just before one of the biggest rallies of all time...... :rolleyes:

and posted that move real time on this forum.

Edited by trioderob

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Dypsisdean

this is from a guy who back off his exposure just before one of the biggest rallies of all time...... :rolleyes:

and posted that move real time on this forum.

Wrong again.

I have been fully invested in my speculative account for almost the last 3 years. Most all of that time even margined for more exposure. I rotated out of some underperformers earlier this year and right back into an interest rate play, and now Apple. But still margined - haven't held cash for a long time. I wish every year would be like this one.

I guess what is confusing you Rob is that you don't understand that I own two portfolios. One is what I explained is the right way to invest. The long term cost averaging investing talked about here as the only sure way to invest. When you have gone down that road and satisfied your needs in that investing arena, then that is the only time I would recommend to anyone to try timing the market.

Since I started investing 40 years ago and as I neared retirement, I stopped adding to that portfolio and have started slowly liquidating it as planned - because I would like to use that money at some point over the next ten years - average in, average out.

But I like to play the market. So I started to trade using what I have learned through the years. But that is all with my speculative portfolio - money that I can afford to lose (but would hate to) - that is what I trade with, not my nest egg. And I have been all in and then some speculating with that the last 2 1/2 yrs straight - but still in a manner you would call conservative intermediate term market timing.

You can have your Monday in, Tuesday out, Wednesday in, Thursday out, Friday in strategy - it's not for me. If I needed that adrenaline rush, I'd fly to Vegas.

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Bags

Can we get a crash count? Is it three predicted crashes so far Rob?

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Dypsisdean

My call --- before the end of the year there will be a big down day, and Rob will be convinced he saw it coming, and will remind us of this as it is occurring.

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Alicehunter2000

Thinking about swing trading again.....made a decent amount the last time I was doing it. Like TD Ameritrade platform but the $9.99 a trade is a bit steep. Anybody using TradeKing platform?....the $4.95/trade is appealing. Wished I would have stayed in the market another year last time...would have really made a killing...got cold feet, thinking a crash was looming.

I treat swing trading like gambling....with better odds....I place my stops when I buy in...takes the emotion out of it.

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trioderob

Dean-

you still never talked about what you did in end of 2007 -2008 when your long position lost 67%

I have asked you several times and you just are not going to spill the beans - why ?

or how you rode the internet bubble into the ground in 2000

what I getting at is its easy to make yourself look smart now- but not really fair.

you need to talk about how your method worked in the bad times too.

Edited by trioderob

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Moose

I have a feeling Rob will be back before the end of the year. That's my prediction.

Good call - try 13 minutes :floor:

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Mats

So wrong so many times. I think the only one rob is trying to convince at this point is himself.

The vast majority of us just ignore this guy. But ol' Dean never fails to rise to triode's bait.

i outta here.

see you guys end of year

As usual, that didn't last long... 16 minutes later he was back posting in this thread.

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Dypsisdean

But ol' Dean never fails to rise to triode's bait.

I guess that opinion depends on who you perceive is doing the fishing. :)

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