The Stock Picker's Game - Week 4

[Dypsisdean]

down we go......................................clunk

It will be interesting to see if this is yet another "down we go.......clunk" - that ends up as an uneventful week.

Despite all this consternation and apprehension about Uncle Ben - we are exactly where we were at the start of the month - and still up for the week.

[redant]

I hope rob publishes his stock traders guide soon, can't wait for it. Anyway Mr. Bradford needs to take a step down for a day.

d1.pdf

[Dypsisdean]

Good Job Redant - TBT has been on fire lately. I couldn't resist taking the profit today on my real life hedge.

[redant]

Good Job Redant - TBT has been on fire lately. I couldn't resist taking the profit today on my real life hedge.

Yeah I think this is a excellent long term play, but short term today was probably a good day to cash in and look for another opportunity. I play this and other short terms in my IRA so I don't have to worry about L/T S/T taxes, what a nice thing!

[trioderob]

down we go......................................clunk

It will be interesting to see if this is yet another "down we go.......clunk" - that ends up as an uneventful week.

Despite all this consternation and apprehension about Uncle Ben - we are exactly where we were at the start of the month - and still up for the week.

you missed the whole important point.-

the rally may have been stopped in its tracks for the intermediate term

[Moose]

down we go......................................clunk

It will be interesting to see if this is yet another "down we go.......clunk" - that ends up as an uneventful week.

Despite all this consternation and apprehension about Uncle Ben - we are exactly where we were at the start of the month - and still up for the week.

you missed the whole important point.-

the rally may have been stopped in its tracks for the intermediate term

X is down 2.16 % at mid week

Hey - first time my pick has been in the red, half way there ...

[Dypsisdean]

you missed the whole important point.-

the rally may have been stopped in its tracks for the intermediate term

Rob,

Let's suppose you are right. Now what? What should someone do who has been long the market for the last 2-3 years? Buy, sell, or hold?

Personally, I think the market needs either a rest or a correction. It would set the stage for another leg up. But I'm not going to try and time it. I'll just stay long and sit tight. If the market sells off, hopefully I'll have some cash available to grab a bargin.

You make it sound sometimes like we are on the verge of another bear market. So are we still in the middle of a bull market, or is there a bear around the corner?

[tank]

So if apple drops back down to 400ish is anyone going to try and pick up more? I'm still sticking to my prediction of it being back up to 500 by the end of summer and near 600 by the end of the year IF they release some new mobile device(s). With this optimism, its been hard not to pick up more during the dip, although this is where the "Don't get greedy" part comes in. Any chance that Tim Cook starts channeling Steve Jobs and somehow gets the value back up to the $700s in the next year?

[redant]

So if apple drops back down to 400ish is anyone going to try and pick up more? I'm still sticking to my prediction of it being back up to 500 by the end of summer and near 600 by the end of the year IF they release some new mobile device(s). With this optimism, its been hard not to pick up more during the dip, although this is where the "Don't get greedy" part comes in. Any chance that Tim Cook starts channeling Steve Jobs and somehow gets the value back up to the $700s in the next year?

I do think Tim should start seeking someone who can channel into the after life. Their recent convention was far from exciting. I still do hold a position in apple, not sure if I'll add any more in the near term.

[trioderob]

dipper dabber

dipper blump

the market

its taking a dump

[trioderob]

we are not oversold on the TRIN

this is an orderly sell off

[trioderob]

10 year blond yields rocketing.

bond holders getting hammered.

[trioderob]

MOOSE-

whats YOUR call on this stock market bro ?

[trioderob]

this sell off may become severe

[trioderob]

market still not oversold -

Tank-

did you save yourself ?????

[trioderob]

we may be setting up for a "Hindenburg Omen"

not saying it will - but the technical indicators are starting to show

Edited June 20, 2013 by trioderob

[trioderob]

I am out of here and wont be posting to this thread anymore

you guys have fun.

you wont be hearing from me again about stocks

good luck !

Edited June 20, 2013 by trioderob

[redant]

I am out of here and wont be posting to this thread anymore

you guys have fun.

you wont be hearing from me again about stocks

good luck !

Aw you'll take away all the fun. No need for CNBC when I can get the same emotion filled commentary here about what has happened and "the market will either go up or down". Anyway It was not much fun for those who do this for a living but for me I have been waiting for an opportunity to pick up some bargains, sold all of my interest sensitive stuff a while ago and been waiting for days like today. I thought they may never come but patients pays sometimes. Unfortunately for all (including me as I don't hold enough of them) my pick for the week is a stand out winner.

d1.pdf

Edited June 20, 2013 by redant

[Dypsisdean]

I agree with Rob - the market is going to crash.

Rob, We nailed it.

So if apple drops back down to 400ish is anyone going to try and pick up more?

I was stopped out of my position a while back, and have been waiting to get back in. I have been averaging in the last 3 days. I have to admit I am nervous, but sometimes I am my own best contrarian indicator.

Time will tell if this is your garden variety correction or something more. But if you were told on Jan 1 that you could make 12% over the next 7 months, you would have taken the deal. The Dow is still up 12 1/2% YTD.

Going to be hard to catch Redant this week. TBT - another big winner today.

[MattyB]

TBT crushed it! Triode Bites Toddlers

[MattyB]

TBT crushed it! Triode Bites Toddlers

My phone liked it

[trioderob]

.........................

[trioderob]

[trioderob]

[trioderob]

:interesting:

[redant]

Ok, I'll bite For someone who knew, predicted or whatever that the market was going down you made a poor pick based on that information.

[trioderob]

I can live with that.

[Bags]

Rob you and I both know that is not all. It is funny that there is such an over reaction to the interest rates. Rising interest rates are going to coincide with an improving economy which is a good thing for the long term investors.

[MattyB]

I am out of here and wont be posting to this thread anymore

you guys have fun.

you wont be hearing from me again about stocks

good luck !

Aaron, too bad Triode can't respond because he isn't going to be posting here anymore. His word is bond yo.

[redant]

Rob you and I both know that is not all. It is funny that there is such an over reaction to the interest rates. Rising interest rates are going to coincide with an improving economy which is a good thing for the long term investors.

I agree, at least for the next couple of hours, then I might change my mind. The one thing that does bother me with the present situation is rates are soooooo artificially low that nobody wants to be left holding bonds when the fed is no longer the biggest buyer and rates will move up drastically in response. Kind of like a rubber band pulled to an extreme, watch out when you let go. Thats why I think long term being short bonds however you want to do it is the next huge money maker. As in all things no it will not be great every day (Rob) but over the long haul you should be able to buy a lot of extra palms.

[redant]

weeks poor performance attached, Matty came in second by making 0.4%

d1.pdf

Edited June 21, 2013 by redant

[Bags]

Rob you and I both know that is not all. It is funny that there is such an over reaction to the interest rates. Rising interest rates are going to coincide with an improving economy which is a good thing for the long term investors.

I agree, at least for the next couple of hours, then I might change my mind. The one thing that does bother me with the present situation is rates are soooooo artificially low that nobody wants to be left holding bonds when the fed is no longer the biggest buyer and rates will move up drastically in response. Kind of like a rubber band pulled to an extreme, watch out when you let go. Thats why I think long term being short bonds however you want to do it is the next huge money maker. As in all things no it will not be great every day (Rob) but over the long haul you should be able to buy a lot of extra palms.

Bonds do seam to be a huge worry right now. I do not own any because of that, but if you are someone nearing retirement what do you do? Interest rates could stay low for another decade or they could skyrocket or the stock market could crash. No one knows. The most important thing is to have a plan and stick to it and stay diversified. A bond crash is not going to be anything as painful as a stock market crash.

[Dypsisdean]

Good Job Redant - interesting week - as a group we still continue to stink up the joint. I'm curious if you will stay with TBT.

If the bond market would calm down, a relief rally may be in the cards. But overall, I'm expecting a choppy summer.

The last week of the game is Week 5.

Stock Picker's Game - Week 5

[Dypsisdean]

Bonds do seam to be a huge worry right now. I do not own any because of that, but if you are someone nearing retirement what do you do? Interest rates could stay low for another decade or they could skyrocket or the stock market could crash. No one knows. The most important thing is to have a plan and stick to it and stay diversified. A bond crash is not going to be anything as painful as a stock market crash.

High quality bonds are as close to a sure thing as you can get. You know what you are going to get for interest. And you know what you are going to get at maturity. So it is just like stocks in the sense that if you might need the money before maturity, then you shouldn't buy the bond. If you are hoping the bond will hold it's value or may increase in price (in case you have to sell it), then you are speculating and not content/secure with what you bought it for.

But there are bond funds that that will slowly adjust for rising rates, and there are some floating bonds out there. I just heard one of Apple's new offerings was a floating rate bond.

But you are right, in a rising interest rate environment it is generally considered harder for the stock market to rise. The key becomes - why are rates rising? And there really isn't any precedent for what we are now experiencing. So it will be interesting.

[redant]

Good Job Redant - interesting week - as a group we still continue to stink up the joint. I'm curious if you will stay with TBT.

If the bond market would calm down, a relief rally may be in the cards. But overall, I'm expecting a choppy summer.

The last week of the game is Week 5.

Stock Picker's Game - Week 5

I got out this morning up about 1% on the day, fool it closed up much higher and as you well know it's hard to get back in when the market does something like this. I will be back in this but hoping to see a little correction first. Things seldom go in one direction, that would make it to easy. I don't hold any bonds, bond funds or interest sensitive stocks presently, liquidated those several weeks ago, had most for over 2 years, When the utility stocks started showing weakness that was my exit on everything.

[Dypsisdean]

Cool - feeling much better now - misery loves company.

I'm also hoping I get a chance to get back in. I can't help but feel things got over bought/sold, even a little panic. I guess we need some help from someone who thinks they can easily time getting in and out at all the right times. Who could that be?