Market not happy about Uncle Ben,,,,,,,,,,,,,

[trioderob]

Dean-

you stand on a high horse and always claim your way is the smartest.

then go for it - make a call

where is this market in a long term view - are we topping out here or is this just a small correction ?

going by your own method - where you look for major trends - I am talking about doing it YOUR way - what do you see and why ???

If it declined 20% from here, then I would only be up 40% over the last 2 1/2 years. I can live with that.

BUT WHAT HAPPENED THE 2 YEARS BEFORE THAT ????? - HOW MUCH WERE YOU DOWN AND HAD TO MAKE UP ????

Edited June 11, 2013 by trioderob

[trioderob]

down WE GO AGAIN-

internals look horid.

market still not hppy about uncle ben no matter what these guys might be try to tell you.

what these guys aint talking about when they try to put me dowwn is how this maket would be 10 % higher today had Ben B

not talked about slowing the printing press.

and folks reading this I have posted real info - unlike jokers like Moose who just point fingers and sinker.

Edited June 11, 2013 by trioderob

[trioderob]

oh and folks-

look at a chart of the s and p 500 - when did it top ???????

now compare that chart to this post :

Posted 22 May 2013 - 10:53 AM
Uncle Ben just spoke about backing off on the bond buying.down we go............................

oh - thats right - my post and the top match

OK DEAN WHERE IS YOUR CHART FOR THAT ONE ?

LOL !

Edited June 11, 2013 by trioderob

[Dypsisdean]

I give up Rob - every question and point you brought up has already been addressed - where have you been?

Dean-
then go for it - make a call

Last time I will answer this - I am not smart enough to make short term calls. Never claimed to be either.

where is this market in a long term view - are we topping out here or is this just a small correction ?

Markets need to consolidate after runs like we have had. This can either be a sharp correction - or it can be an extended period within a trading range. As I have already told you, I think the market will be up for the year, and up for the decade. And even up a small amount from here by year's end. Is it a short term top - who knows and who cares? Is it the beginning of a 10-20 year bear market? - I kinda doubt it.

If it declined 20% from here, then I would only be up 40% over the last 2 1/2 years. I can live with that.

BUT WHAT HAPPENED THE 2 YEARS BEFORE THAT ????? - HOW MUCH WERE YOU DOWN AND HAD TO MAKE UP ????

If you put in $1000 for the long term and it becomes $2000, are you "down" if it temporarily drops to $1500? You don't put money in the market that you will need within 10 years - unless you can afford to lose it.

going by your own method - where you look for major trends - I am talking about doing it YOUR way - what do you see and why ???

look at a chart of the s and p 500 - when did it top ???????

Posted 22 May 2013 - 10:53 AM
Uncle Ben just spoke about backing off on the bond buying.down we go............................
oh - thats right -
OK DEAN WHERE IS YOUR CHART FOR THAT ONE ?
LOL !

Here you go - my "chart for that one" and for a long term trend - 20 year DJIA. Anyone who dollar cost averaged in for the last 20, 30, or 40 years looks like a genius today. They have never been "down." But 95% of those who tried to time the bottoms and tops have been "down." How does the reaction to Uncle Ben's comments look from this perspective?

[Kim]

It seems you are both arguing separate points and one person isn't aware of that. It's the difference between gambling and investing. When you invest, you own a stock. You don't rent it. You hold it long-term for the tax advantages. The market is repeating a familiar pattern, one that Dean appears to be familiar with.

When I went to work in this industry the Dow Jones Industrial Average was about 832. That's not a typo. Can anyone pick a trend in Dean's chart? Many people can be very happy with their 401(k), thanks to the long-term effect of dollar cost averaging. I'm grateful for every dog-meat sandwich I ever ate, as all of them were buy signals. You can slice and dice the history of the market all you want, (and plenty of people do it for a living), stocks historically outperform any other investment, including real estate, over the long haul. There is nothing new under the sun. So many of these discussions sound like someone just learned that gravity exists, and heat and moisture with yeast will make bread rise. All true, and it's great to see people understand that, but not a new discovery. No one, in the entire history of the stock market, has been able to consistently predict market moves. What would make anyone think that by reading Yahoo!, suddenly they are endowed with a magical gift. The market will make one humble, and the more hubris one has, the more humble one will be made. Wall Street has a long list of forgotten so-called 'gurus'. Anyone can have a lucky call, or even a hot streak, but it never lasts. So far, the calls I've read here have had a similar success rate to flipping a coin. "The market" did this, "the market" did that and I called it. Which market? What did you buy, what did you sell? Do you own the whole market? What was your percentage gain or loss? That's way too vague for calling victory.

This is not an invitation to a debate. The purpose is merely to bring the conversation down to earth. If any of us were that good at calling the market, we sure wouldn't be hanging around here yakking about it.

[trioderob]

if we lived for 300 years this would work out fine.

the problem is we don't and while the market does on AVERAGE go up at a steady pace there can be stretches for 12 years or more where its down or flat.

todays market in real terms is down considering inflation over the past 13 years.

its like the real estate agent who when house prices are crashing says that "its a deal of a lifetime"

when its rocketing its "buy now - before you are priced out forever"

no matter what they tell you its a great time to buy.

the fact is that stocks are a very risky investment in a bear market- plain and simple.

People don’t seem to grasp easily…

People don’t seem to grasp easily the fundamentals of stock trading. I have often said, that to buy on a rising market is the most comfortable way of buying stocks. Now, the point is not so much to buy as cheap as possible or go short at top prices, but to buy or sell at the right time. When I am bearish and I sell a stock, each sale must be at a lower level than the previous sale. When I am buying the reverse is true. I must buy on a rising scale. I don’t buy long stock on a scale down I buy on a scale up.

— Jesse Livermore

so in the word of the greatest trader of all times - you don't stay in all the time and you don't try to front run the bottom !

Edited June 12, 2013 by trioderob

[Dypsisdean]

todays market in real terms is down considering inflation over the past 13 years.

Rob - that is just not true. 13 years ago the Dow was around 10,500. Today it is 15,000 - or an increase of 43%. I used the inflation calculator you can see below, and it calculated the last 13 years of inflation at 35% - (or a rate that would have put the Dow at 14,178). And you keep forgetting about dividends.

If you invested in Blue Chips that increased their dividends yearly, and you reinvested those dividends, the compounded results would add a huge amount to your gain. I'm guessing close to 4-5% a year - or another 60+%. So, using your hand picked 13 years - one of the worst 13 year periods of the last 60 - you would have still showed a 100% gain.

the fact is that stocks are a very risky investment in a bear market- plain and simple.

Every investment vehicle has "bear markets." Precious metals, real estate, bonds, fine art, even palms. There is no such thing as an investment without risk.

But no one hangs a sign out that says, "Bear Market next week - Get Out"

And by the time a bear market is recognized, it is probably time to start looking to buy - because there is a better chance it is nearer the end than the beginning. As Kim mentioned - bear markets are a great time to pick up some bargains. So, no need to fear a bear market, because it can do you no harm unless you are forced to sell during one. Instead, use it to your advantage.

[trioderob]

you want to be in the market and face a huge draw down - go for it - you win

how much did you lose in 2009 by doing that ????

Edited June 12, 2013 by trioderob

[Kim]

You must mean 2008. 2009 was a great year for the market.

This question about in and out is rarely framed in black and white in the real world. By that I mean a porfolio is managed by incremental moves to cash or other asset classes (none of which escaped damage in 2008, but that was unique to 2008). 100% in and 100% out is a truly high risk method and almost never used by professional portfolio managers responsible for significant assets. While 2008 was seriously painful, with some active management, most everything was recouped by 2010, not a bad way to get through the "Great Recession". Simple reversion to the mean provided most of the bump up, meaning even investors who were completely passive got a significant recovery, unless they were heavily weighted in financials.

As a reality check, if you measure from the peak, in a sense, it's a false measurement of performance -- the assets were overvalued at the time of the fall. It would only make sense to measure from the peak if that was when the capital was invested. If an individual measures from when they first invest, and tracks year to year, the performance looks radically different than if you measure from the absolute peak of the market.

Back to 100% in or 100% out, yes, some individuals did that. They moved to 100% cash during the decline (not before), and due to distrust of the markets, waited for a couple thousand more points on the Dow before they got back in. Most of them missed all of 2009, +19%. Capturing a piece of the downside and missing most of the upside damaged their returns, no question.

[trioderob]

they say a picture is worth a thousand words:

this will be my last post on this subject - and you can bet on that !

oh - by the way - yes- you guessed it right - MARKET STILL NOT HAPPY ABOUT UNCLE BEN

HAVE FUN !

Edited June 12, 2013 by trioderob

[Kim]

Your chart ends 3 1/2 years ago. It is of no small significance that Bernanke spent most of his adult life studying the Great Depression.

[Dypsisdean]

Kim,

Rob has convinced me. He is on to something. I think it would be much better to be long stocks only during the bull markets - and to be short during the bear markets. I don't know why I didn't think of that sooner.

[Dypsisdean]

I think it is interesting to note that in Rob's chart of "bear markets" above that only the annualized percent change of the bear markets are filled in. The gains during the bull markets are ignored. And also notice the "bear market" of the 70s - it was essentially just a long flat period of no gain. But look what it has for bookends - two long bull markets - both of which show gains of 1000%

And once again - this chart does not include the substantial gains that dividends add to equation.

But furthermore, it would appear that based on his chart, that the time is ripe for the beginning of another 20+ yr bull market.

[Kim]

Good observation. The chart also skips significant but brief bear markets. How can you just skip over 1987? Yes, the chart "can be divided" that way, but it sure omits a lot of significant information, in particular the breakout into the current bull market.

[redant]

I don't know Rob, seems like the market it's really to unhappy after all.

[trioderob]

are you for real ????

he came out yesterday and stated that he changed his mind.

[redant]

are you for real ????

he came out yesterday and stated that he changed his mind.

This is our sixth day up in a row, He said nothing 6 days ago

[trioderob]

ok then

what do i know ?

[Bags]

Rob you have significantly under performed the market this year and I am sure you have underperformed the market over the past 10 years as well. You say you were out before the crash in 07. Sounds great, but you have also been out for most of the run this year. It sounds like you are out of the market a lot fearing the next crash. Buy and hold is up 13% or so this year and up 8% or so over the past 10 years. A bear market like this one is really a great chance to invest and a much better time than waiting for the next bull market. The last few crashes are going to be seen as missed oportunities in 10-15 years

[trioderob]

bags-

you are totally wrong about me and you also don't know anything about the stock market or how to trade it.

Edited July 11, 2013 by trioderob

[Bags]

That is the thing you are missing Rob, this isn't rocket science. I am up 13% this year and have averaged about 8% a year without doing anything but buying low fee index funds every two weeks for the past 10 plus years. 90% of Personal investors, mutual fund managers and hedge fund managers can not say they have done as well as me. That may sound crazy, but check it out. Not many people beat the market.

[Dypsisdean]

That is the thing you are missing Rob, this isn't rocket science. I am up 13% this year and have averaged about 8% a year without doing anything but buying low fee index funds every two weeks for the past 10 plus years. 90% of Personal investors, mutual fund managers and hedge fund managers can not say they have done as well as me. That may sound crazy, but check it out. Not many people beat the market.

Aaron - It's even worse than that. Since Jan 1, the Dow is up 2,357 points, or 18%. S&P is up 17.5%. Add dividends and that is close to 20%. That's a killer return for 7 months. Rob made 1 1/4% today (but so did you) - but only if he sold at the close, and then paid commissions and short term cap gains.

So while you slept tight all year, making incredible gains, Rob was worried about all the "crashes," "the down we goes," the "clunks," and the "dribble dribbles." Even I'll admit you have probably done better than I have. He's right, you don't know how to trade the stock market. You know how to invest wisely.

Rob buys in near historic highs and brags, when we have been telling him all year it's a bull market. Go figure.

[trioderob]

Dean-

you sell right before the market rockets - you try to bottom pick crashing stocks - you try to average in at ever lower prices -you ride bear markets into the abyss -you break every classic rule of trading

NOT my rules here - classic rules that have been understood by the best traders in history.

everything they tell you not to do is what you do.

there is no better time to buy then at the historical highs in this case - it just shows that you don't understand the market at all - but you think you do.

there is a reason its at historical highs now - but you think you know better then the market - you think that because its so high it must be ready to crash now.

Edited July 11, 2013 by trioderob

[Dypsisdean]

Dean-

you sell right before the market rockets.

Untrue - I've been 100% fully invested since July 2010. Sometimes even more so - using margin.

you try to bottom pick crashing stocks - you try to average in at ever lower prices

True - I am a Contrarian (definition) - and that is exactly what I try to do. And if I missed the bottom, I may average down, because it is so difficult buying a bottom. But I carefully minimize my downsize with stops.

When I see panic selling, I look for a chance to buy. And when I see over-confident buying, I become worried. That is why I am not margined at the moment - but remain fully invested. There are more bulls right now than I would like. And now that you have turned bullish, I may start selling.

there is no better time to buy then at the historical highs.....

Irrelevant - historic high, historic low - it only matters where it goes after you buy. But as a contrarian, I would prefer to buy into a stock market just cut in half, than one that just doubled. I try to buy weakness, and sell strength - but I don't suppose you have heard about that "classic" trading strategy.

[trioderob]

good luck with that.

you buy a stock that just cut in half the odds are greater that is doing down -not up.

that's trading 101

you yourself admitted that you cant pick tops - there goes your method right out the window.

I trade in harmony with the market.

i buy when others are buying and sell when they are selling.

ever hear of doing that ?

When I see panic selling, I look for a chance to buy. And when I see over-confident buying, I become worried

you cant even define how you know that things are "over confident" - -that's why you cant pick tops

you can spot "panic bottoms" but the problem for you is that you will already be in the market when they happen

you have set yourself up in your mind that no matter what you did it was the right move -that's not realistic.

Edited July 11, 2013 by trioderob

[trioderob]

and on top of that - you talk about "fading me" when the intermediate term technicals are extremely bullish.

that's not a sophisticated analysis of the market

[Dypsisdean]

I trade in harmony with the market.

i buy when others are buying and sell when they are selling.

ever hear of doing that ?

Yes, I have heard of momentum trading. But last month when we were near historic highs you were talking "crash." Your problem is that your "harmony" turns on a dime. I've been in "harmony" with the well established uptrend of the last 3 years.

you buy a stock that just cut in half the odds are greater that is doing down -not up.

Please note I didn't say a stock cut in half, I said a stock market cut in half - big difference. Stock markets (especially the world's biggest) will not go to zero. Not all stocks cut in half are a buy, by any means.

you yourself admitted that you cant pick tops - there goes your method right out the window.

Misquoted again. I said I seem to have more trouble picking tops than bottoms. But I would never claim picking either a top or bottom is easy. But when done correctly, it can be lucrative, and will make up for the three or four you didn't get right - and got stopped out - with limited losses.

you cant even define how you know that things are "over confident"

Untrue - you never asked. But finding tops and bottoms is done the same way. There are numerous sentiment indicators - polls done once a week for bulls and bears, over-bought/over-sold indicators, and put/call ratios. Analyzing charts of those data will point to extremes in the market. I've also noticed that when the VIX gets "jumpy" it often times indicates a bottom. And there is just listening and paying attention to the tenor of general news stories and talking heads. But more importantly, is how the market reacts to positive and negative news. This tells you a lot about overall sentiment. And history has shown that when the sentiment is so bullish/bearish that the story of the "Great Bull Market" or the "Great Recession" appears on the cover of Business Week or the New York Times the trend is ready to change.

If you really want to find out why contrarian investing works you can read this. This is the best explanation I have ever read on how using CBOE put/call ratios are one of the best tools to help find major tops and bottoms. http://www.investopedia.com/articles/optioninvestor/02/052102.asp

you have set yourself up in your mind that no matter what you did it was the right move -that's not realistic.

The only thing that determines if they were the "right moves" is the change in the value of the portfolio - the unavoidable arbiter of my decisions.

[trioderob]

Dean-

this is silly basic stuff you are pointing out that 50 million traders could tell you.

that's the problem - what you are looking for is the same as what everyone else is.

you don't have the "upper hand" on anyone.

the problem is in the actual execution

or to put it in other words

"what everyone knows - is not worth knowing"

have fun

ps: did you fade me and bail out ?

Edited July 12, 2013 by trioderob

[Bags]

Rob,

Do you know about short term capital gains taxes? How about trading fees? If you have to pay 40% tax on any gains you have then you have to outperform the market by at least 4% every year add another 1% in trading fees and now it is 5% (and really more than that to break even). How many people out perform the market by 5% over their lifetime? The answer is probably close to zero. I do not expect you to acknowledge anything I have said, but with your frequent trading there is no chance you have outperformed. It does not sound like you invest in individual companies which is really the only chance to beat the market by a significant margin. Tell me I am wrong about the taxes and fees and there impact.

[trioderob]

leverage

i outta here too.

Edited July 12, 2013 by trioderob

[paulgila]

Dean-

this is silly basic stuff you are pointing out that 50 million traders could tell you.

that's the problem - what you are looking for is the same as what everyone else is.

you don't have the "upper hand" on anyone.

the problem is in the actual execution

or to put it in other words

"what everyone knows - is not worth knowing"

have fun

ps: did you fade me and bail out ?

rob do you think like this too,in clipped,short sentences? maybe that's part of your problem.

[Bags]

You did not answer my question as I said I expected. Do you agree with me that you would have to outperform by 5% or so, because of taxes and fees to break even with the market?

[Dypsisdean]

ps: did you fade me and bail out ?

I guess you still don't get it. I trade very infrequently - only when my indicators tell me there is a rare extreme. And there is no such extreme indicated at the moment - so I will continue to ride the long side from the last extreme 3-4 years ago - hopefully for another 3-4 years.

Now if I think I see an extreme in a stock, like I think I saw with AAPL, I may make a move. (one eye on FCX for a while now). But it would take some major froth in the overall market for me to bail or go short.

[Bags]

Rob,

You must realize that I am right that is why you are ignoring my statement. So let's say you do outperform me be 6%. I earn 10% on my money and you earn 16% on yours. My $100 turns into $110 and yours turns into $116, but april comes around and your short term capital gains and trading fees cost you 40% of your earnings or $6.40. You now have $109.60 while I still have $110. You need to beat the market by so much just to break even. This is something that is nearly impossible over a long period of time.

Now your turn. Tell me I am wrong.

[Dypsisdean]

Rob,

You must realize that I am right that is why you are ignoring my statement. So let's say you do outperform me be 6%. I earn 10% on my money and you earn 16% on yours. My $100 turns into $110 and yours turns into $116, but april comes around and your short term capital gains and trading fees cost you 40% of your earnings or $6.40. You now have $109.60 while I still have $110. You need to beat the market by so much just to break even. This is something that is nearly impossible over a long period of time.

Now your turn. Tell me I am wrong.

I think he's outta here.

[Moose]

Rob,

You must realize that I am right that is why you are ignoring my statement. So let's say you do outperform me be 6%. I earn 10% on my money and you earn 16% on yours. My $100 turns into $110 and yours turns into $116, but april comes around and your short term capital gains and trading fees cost you 40% of your earnings or $6.40. You now have $109.60 while I still have $110. You need to beat the market by so much just to break even. This is something that is nearly impossible over a long period of time.

Now your turn. Tell me I am wrong.

I think he's outta here.

Could he be "outta here"?

[paulgila]

he's been "outta here" for a long time now

[Stevetoad]

I hear toadies tee shirts are about to blow up! Insider told me he was adding "palm-nut" to his tee shirt line.... (Shameless plug).

[Bags]

I guess he is really out of here this time. I was really looking forward to more arogant condescending remarks about how to donate more money to the IRS.

[Dypsisdean]

For Rob:

AAPL up today - Market down