SELL SELL SELL

[trioderob]

but maybe a 4 to 1 split this week ???????????

[Dypsisdean]

Apple is one of the most recognizable brands in the world. Just last quarter they made more money than an company has ever made in one quarter in the history of the world. They have no debt and 140 billion in cash. They are priced at 9 times earnings which is very cheap for a company making so much money. They are projected to grow at 30% a year. If they grow at all even 4-5% a year this is a great investment right now. Other than the stock price going down irrationally I don't see much not to like.

"the stock price is going down irrationally"

no its not -by making that statement you are saying that you know more about Apple than the collective knowledge of traders around the world.

the problem is that you DONT know more

Have to disagree Rob. What would you have said a few months ago around $700 if he would have said the stock is going up irrationally. If you would have said the same thing, he would have been right - and the "collective knowledge of the traders" would have been wrong.

The market is also the collective emotions of the traders/investors - and as we know, emotions are irrational. Fear and greed are still a big part of the market - and can generally be found at tops and bottoms.

[trioderob]

if you really do know something the market does not know that's one thing.

so what does Bags know that the market does not ?

Edited April 22, 2013 by trioderob

[Dypsisdean]

Nobody ever knows for sure. It is always an evaluation.

[trioderob]

right now Apple is expected to have a horid earning report.

when I walk into an Apple store now the total vibe of the store is night and day different than a year ago.

a year ago i saw people waiting in line with cedit card in hand with baited breath to make a major purchase.

now when i walk in it looks empty, those who are in the store are mostly kids playing games or folks with some sort of problem they need fixed.

you dont see huge groups of people leaving the store with large white shopping bags.

thats why the stock has sold off for weeks - the market is not irrational at all.

on the other hand this could become bullish as the expectations have plummeted.................

[Bags]

Rob do you think the stock price movement the key reason to buy or sell a stock. The irrational stock price is what you focused on? What about the other facts with the company? 9x earnings and 140B in cash means nothing? Microsoft trades at 15 times earnings and is in way more trouble than apple. Google trades at 24 times earnings. Apple could cut their earnings in half and still be way cheaper than google. In the 90's when apple was on the verge of going bankrupt they were more expensive than now. They could be done with new products and tank but that is all speculation like dean said. Do you pay attention to anything anyone has said ever? It seams like logic and reason have no impact on you.

[trioderob]

Do you pay attention to anything anyone has said ever? It seams like logic and reason have no impact on you.

price is King.

first rule in trading is dont think that you are so smart that you know more than the market - unless you really do.

i do hear what you are saying - its just that i dont agree that thats the smart way to trade.

we will just have to agree - that we dont agree.

[trioderob]

to put this another way

Apple has gone done 3/10 of a trillion dollars in value.

thats not pocket change - someone knows something - ya think ?????

[redant]

Look at the last two years of netflix (which is not a great company IMO) to see what emotions can do to the value of a company even though the model hasn't changed.

[Bags]

Apple earnings coming. I think bad news is already priced in but we will see soon

[tank]

News not quite as bad as expected for apple, up in after hours. Fun stuff.

[trioderob]

yea - was up 5.8 % now up 1.6% - in the after hours

still not bad - had it been bad it would be down 10% after hours and would tank the whole market

i think tommorrow we have a nice up day - maybe 2% ..................

Go ahead and hate your neighbor,

Go ahead and cheat a friend.

Do it in the name of Heaven,

You can justify it in the end.

There won't be any trumpets blowing

Come the judgement day,

On the bloody morning after....

One tin soldier rides away.

Edited April 23, 2013 by trioderob

[trioderob]

now she is down after hours - just a little.

thats huge good news for Apple cause like I said she could have been DOWN 10% easy with a real bad report.

on the other hand as I dig into the report its does not look all that good to me either.

BAGS:

1) SALES ARE DOWN

2) FALLINGS MARGINS

3) NO SPECIAL DIVIDEND

4) NO SPLIT

5) NO NEW HUGE BLOCK BUSTER PRODUCTS

whats not to love ??????

Edited April 23, 2013 by trioderob

[tank]

Could take a few days for apple to sort itself out.

[trioderob]

if you guys really want to learn something read this:

(how about someone giving ME some useful info for once ???)

http://www.hoisingtonmgt.com/pdf/HIM2013Q1NP.pdf

Edited April 24, 2013 by trioderob

[Vincent]

I read the article- it claims the fed is not printing money (pause for a chuckle). So, why did M3 money supply data stopped being submitted? The article you posted is not per reviewed. It has not been published or seen the light of day outside of some quackery investment firm in Texas. Who am I to tell you what to read and believe? If there is anyone else who agrees with this article my hat's off to you.

[trioderob]

"it has not seen the light of day outside of some quakery investmant firm from Texas"

dude you are not making yourself look too smart here:

(why do i waste my time ? - im am idiot)

"The firm has over 4.5 billion under management,
with a client base of corporate and public funds, foundations, endowments,
Taft-Hartley funds and insurance companies. The average client size is $117
million and the average client relationship is eleven years. "

Edited April 24, 2013 by trioderob

[trioderob]

THATS IT

IM GONE - HAVE FUN !

[Vincent]

Bernie Madoff had big money and clients as well. Is bigger better? Look at all the too bigs to fails- your tax dollars and mine, are keeping them propped up. Again, the fact of money printing and the real money supply is found in M3. The fed no longer discloses this measurement. I am not going to argue about whether or not the fed is printing money. For an investment firm to state it is not- give me a break. They are the ones making themselves not look too smart. It is also hard to take any financial discussion serious with the old spice man avatar.

[trioderob]

your smarter than the man who wrote this................

good luck to you

how about making any kind of a call about the market ???????

Edited April 26, 2013 by trioderob

[tank]

-Clearwire, Sprint and Dish. Keep an eye on this love/hate tryst. Definitely some money to be made. With Verison as the 4rth wheel. Someone is going to buy Clearwire relatively soon.

-First Solar has gone from $15 to $45 over the past several months, unfortunately that ship may have sailed.

-3D printing. Can you print me out a new liver? Or... "replicator, I'd like a Romulan Ale"

[tank]

One of my favorite movies of all time...

[redant]

One of my favorite movies of all time...

I spent 27 years trading commodities, god I love that movie.

[trioderob]

"The markets are near a major decision point"

Edited April 29, 2013 by trioderob

[redant]

"The markets are near a major decision point"

Thanks for that extremely useful insight.

[Moose]

"The markets are near a major decision point"

Profound, at the very least ...

[trioderob]

LOL-

i am one step ahead of you guys for sure.

do I need to explain or would someone like to take a guess what I am taking about ?

- ok I will be criticized severely no matter what i write- so here goes anyway:

everyone knows there are major problems in Europe.

we had Greece, Cyprus banks, Italian election on and on....

But - there was an expectation that things would be getting better by the end of 2013. (you may not agree but what you think is of no importance)

the market priced itself on this expectation. now we are at the all time high - but - the moment is now at hand where the proof of this late 2013 needs to become clear (in other words the light at the end of the tunnel). we have the bank of Japan printing, there are major hope that the ECB cuts rates from .75 to .25, etc.... in addtion Obamacare is now becoming a major factor. so the moment of truth is at hand here.

you guys can feel it too - thats why nobody has a clue which way this thing breaks. the fundimentals look bad the technical charts look good.

we are at a cross roads

Vincent/Matty/Dean/Paul/Bags/Moose/Tank/Redant/

comments ??????

[redant]

I gave you a trade, that you criticized, I bought AAPl on 4/18, up over 10% on the trade. Have you ever made one real call or one real trade in your life?

[tank]

Bought Apple at 408.... trying to recoup my previous losses . Second time I've done this on Apple. Hope springs eternal.

[Bags]

LOL-

i am one step ahead of you guys for sure.

Rob,

You are actually a few steps behind and seriously lagging the market You sold your stocks and will have to pay short term capital gains taxes (40% or so of your earnings) and you missed some of the run up in the market before "The Fed changed the game" and you got back in. No one is making a call because we know that trying to time the market is a crap strategy. My call is put money in every paycheck, at least 15% of your salary, start early, do it consistently and ignore what is going on with the market. You also need to max out any tax advantaged accounts like IRA's or 401ks before doing any after tax investing. If you are not doing all of these things then good luck.

[trioderob]

I am doing fine Bags - LOL.

what about the guy who did what you recommend - could he not worry about the market

in 2007 when he looks at his account and notices he has lost 67% - does he just think to himself " its all good"

WHAT IF HE IS A MONTH FROM RETIRING ??????

THAT IS BAD ADVICE !

Redant - good trade - lets see if Apple breaks thru the down trend line - its close.

Edited April 30, 2013 by trioderob

[Vincent]

Nothing to add on my behalf. It rained so I did not have to water the palms.

[tank]

I am doing fine Bags - LOL.

what about the guy who did what you recommend - could he not worry about the market

in 2007 when he looks at his account and notices he has lost 67% - does he just think to himself " its all good"

WHAT IF HE IS A MONTH FROM RETIRING ??????

THAT IS BAD ADVICE !

Redant - good trade - lets see if Apple breaks thru the down trend line - its close.

If he hadn't fled the market in 2007 he'd be doing great right now. If he was retiring in 2007, he was probably in trouble.

[Bags]

I guess I just like beating my head against the wall, but Rob you are not fine. You are underperforming the market. That makes you a bad investor. Why can't you just accept that?...and as far as 2007 one more thing you need to learn about is diversification. someone a week from retirement would have 50% or more in bonds and would not have lost 67% of their portfolio. More like 20%. After they rebalanced and the market recovered they would be up very quickly. Why don't you understand that is how it would be done?

I am still waiting for any actual investing advice...

[Dypsisdean]

WHAT IF HE IS A MONTH FROM RETIRING ??????

THAT IS BAD ADVICE !

Rob - you're way off base (as Bags already stated before I could post this) - and very far from the common sense money management you learn in investing 101. One of the first things you learn in financial planning is that as you approach retirement you must pare down your exposure to volatile assets. Anyone who has money in the stock market that they will need to survive on in a looming retirement is making a big obvious stupid mistake, and deserves what they get.

If you will need any of your savings to live on within the next ten years, it should not be in the stock market in the first place.

[Dypsisdean]

Bought Apple at 408.... trying to recoup my previous losses . Second time I've done this on Apple. Hope springs eternal.

Took me three times on this trade. Bought at $450 - stopped out down 3% Bought at $420 - stopped out for another 3% loss. Bought again at $400 - now up over 10% on that trade and in the green for my Apple trade. Wasn't easy - and I may be pissed again tomorrow. But it looks to me as if the lows are in.

Collecting a nice dividend now, and an agressive buy back program will offer support. If I'm right, I caught a major inflection point and I can sit on it for a while. But way to early to boost. I have a stop in so the worse I can now do is break even. In gambling parlance, I am playing with house money now - just as I like it. That is my "trading" philosophy.

Plus I have "inside" info of 2 new products to debut before year's end.

[Moose]

LOL-

i am one step ahead of you guys for sure.

Rob,

You are actually a few steps behind and seriously lagging the market You sold your stocks and will have to pay short term capital gains taxes (40% or so of your earnings) and you missed some of the run up in the market before "The Fed changed the game" and you got back in. No one is making a call because we know that trying to time the market is a crap strategy. My call is put money in every paycheck, at least 15% of your salary, start early, do it consistently and ignore what is going on with the market. You also need to max out any tax advantaged accounts like IRA's or 401ks before doing any after tax investing. If you are not doing all of these things then good luck.

Aaron - that has been my path. You need observe the long term.

Rob - I will not get into my personal financial numbers but my long term strategy has proven to be fruitful. Will be looking at the market only when I am about 5 years out from retirement with my IRA. Then only to possibly switch to a conservative position if the market appears unsteady. I worked for a Harvard grad attorney when I started my 401(k), he explained to me his practice and I followed him. Invest early and let it ride, Clyde!

Where is all the money going??? Looks like people are putting it into residential properties again. Phoenix and Los Angeles have seen a huge jump in home prices over the lasy year. Average listing are reportedly lasting two weeks. Often offers are above the asking price. Buy, But, Buy ...

[redant]

BX (blackstone group) is the largest holder of single family homes in the US. I had purchased a small bet on them a while back but the high P/E ratio on them makes me rather uncomfortable playing any big money on this.

[tank]

Bought Apple at 408.... trying to recoup my previous losses . Second time I've done this on Apple. Hope springs eternal.

Took me three times on this trade. Bought at $450 - stopped out down 3% Bought at $420 - stopped out for another 3% loss. Bought again at $400 - now up over 10% on that trade and in the green for my Apple trade. Wasn't easy - and I may be pissed again tomorrow. But it looks to me as if the lows are in.

Collecting a nice dividend now, and an agressive buy back program will offer support. If I'm right, I caught a major inflection point and I can sit on it for a while. But way to early to boost. I have a stop in so the worse I can now do is break even. In gambling parlance, I am playing with house money now - just as I like it. That is my "trading" philosophy.

Plus I have "inside" info of 2 new products to debut before year's end.

Soon as anything new comes out the stock should pop, as long as it isn't a total clunker. Good thing is that they have lowered expectations.... Can't say I'm excited about an iwatch if that is indeed in the works. Been saying for awhile that folks under thirty really don't wear watches, unless it is for fashion. Their phone is their watch.

The new dividend is nice. Patience should rule ...... As quoted from the hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, "Don't Panic".

[tank]

Today looks as though its one of those days to not look at your stocks