SELL SELL SELL

[Bags]

I don't know how he did it but MattyB nailed it. If after it goes down again after going up, then down, then up my mind will officially be blown.

[MattyB]

For the lay person like me, who is removed from the inside drama of the stock market, it seems pretty easy to see that the majority of what's going on is just a giant casino where money is won and lost by betters betting on things/industries that are worth far less than the money that is actually being bet on them. That sort of stuff just doesn't jive with my philosophy on life man.

[Vincent]

Federal Reserve induced hyperinflationary depressions are bummers. Hello Weimar Republic!

[trioderob]

next fews days could be dramatic

we are near an all time high on the DOW.

at the same time there are some things brewing that could lead to a huge drop.

Italy is deadlocked - their bond rates could skyrocket - China has vowed to slow its growth today -

we do not know for sure if the dems and repub can work a deal and the market is priced for them to kick the can down the road.

this may not play out well.

anyone holding stocks at the wrong time these next 2 weeks could end up eating a "dog meat sandwich"

"That sort of stuff just doesn't jive with my philosophy on life man"

- Matty...

Edited February 28, 2013 by trioderob

[Moose]

For the lay person like me, who is removed from the inside drama of the stock market, it seems pretty easy to see that the majority of what's going on is just a giant casino where money is won and lost by betters betting on things/industries that are worth far less than the money that is actually being bet on them. That sort of stuff just doesn't jive with my philosophy on life man.

[Dypsisdean]

For the lay person like me, who is removed from the inside drama of the stock market, it seems pretty easy to see that the majority of what's going on is just a giant casino where money is won and lost by betters betting on things/industries that are worth far less than the money that is actually being bet on them. That sort of stuff just doesn't jive with my philosophy on life man.

Matty - when distilled down to its simplest form, the stock market is not the nefarious "philosophy" you portray. Absent all the fluff, it is really no different than you wanting to buy or sell a percentage of your sign business. A shareholder simply owns a percentage of a business. And the value of that percentage is based on what the company earns, owns, and prospects for future earnings - but more importantly, the true value is only what a buyer and seller perceive those assets and earnings to be worth, and can agree on a price.

And that is all the stock market is - a place to bring willing buyers and sellers together with a price at which they are willing to buy or sell. And if/when they both have the same price in mind, you have a market price and a transaction - just like the Real Estate Market, a swap meet, or the Palm Exchange.

[MattyB]

NO!

[trioderob]

ok-

so the Dow JUMPED to all time high area and there was a price rejection and it closed down for the day.....just as I predicted here on this forum

Matty/Moose/Paul/Dean:

any comments /complaints /criticisms ????????

Edited February 28, 2013 by trioderob

[Dypsisdean]

ok-

so the Dow JUMPED to all time high area and there was a price rejection and it closed down for the day.....just as I predicted here on this forum

Matty/Moose/Paul/Dean:

any comments /complaints /criticisms ????????

You have to be joking. Your last two predictions (last Saturday) were "the market is going to go up a little more and then big crash" and "a little bit up and then down we go" But the market is higher today than when you said that. And I can't find another prediction from you since.

Please find where you said "the Dow will JUMP on Thursday to near an all time high where there will be a price rejection and it will close down a little for the day" I must have missed it.

Here's the S&P chart since your last prediction. It does't look up a little, then big crash to me - yet.

[trioderob]

Dean -

you have been riding me for a long time -yet you have provide -zero- information yourself

now its your turn

give me any information/ tips / insight - anything of value.

i stated we where near the all time high and i thought we would reject them.

that happened.

if you notice my "buy buy buy" came just before a very large runup / my "sell sell sell" came just before the first downturn in months.

your turn - I challenge you on this open forum to make ANY kind of a call - anything

I "triple dog dare you"

Edited February 28, 2013 by trioderob

[Dypsisdean]

I'll make two points, honor your request, and then I'll leave you with your predictions and imagination.

1 - You won't get any "calls" from me. I have never claimed I am able to make short term market predictions. In fact, I learned the hard way that I can't. So, I will readily admit that I am not right often enough to make money. I came to respect the difficulties of timing a short term trade - in and out. Profiting from such trades is an exact science, with only two variables determining a good or bad call - pricing and timing - the same crucial details you conveniently omit from any of your predictions.

2- "i stated we were near the all time high and I thought we would reject them." No you didn't. Check your language. There is a huge difference between "would" and "could." The next plane you take off in could crash. The market could be in for the much anticipated correction next week. The market could punch through all time highs in March. The market could do both. And you could be the best trader of all time.

Here is how I trade these days - the last "call" I made was July 2010 - I went long on margin and am still long. This week I liquidated about a third of that position for some favorable long term gain tax treatment, went off margin, and established a new position in Apple with a target of 20-30% higher in a year or two. (See - that is a call - pricing and timing - easy to see if I was right or wrong) I placed a stop loss in the AAPL position at -4%, because I don't always "nail it." And I may not make another trade for months, because the major inflection points I look for don't come often. But I could hedge (index puts, etc.) for some insurance against a decline if I see fit.

[trioderob]

you went long in july 2010 and sold 1/3 at the high- good trade !

so what did you do for the 3 years from july 2007 till you went long in 2010 (while the market lost 65% of its value) ???

were you out of the market looking for the perfect time to buy ?

and why do you think you have some special insight that APPLE will be up 30% in a year when its price is plummeting - going down even again today.

this is a stock that is watched by some of the smartest minds on the planet.

they tend to not sell stocks that will gain 30% in a year.

and please go into detail about how you come up with these "major inflection points" ????

Edited March 1, 2013 by trioderob

[Dypsisdean]

Rob - no hard feelings, but I can't do this anymore. You want me to go into detail when this is your topic and you won't. And then you don't even pay attention to my details when I do.

"APPLE will be up 30% in a year" I didn't say that. I gave a range of a potential target I used to calculate a risk and reward. It could just as easily have been read to be 20% in 2 years. But the numbers work out to be about a third to a half of the decline, added to today's price.

"the smartest minds on the planet tend to not sell stocks that will gain 30% in a year" - you do realize that for every "smart" mind that sells a share, another "smart" mind buys it - and only time will tell who was smarter. I do realize it is a risky trade, but I weighed the potential reward (my target) against my maximum loss (my stop loss), and deemed it acceptable. My inflection points are primarily based on extreme sentiment - and there is a lot of pessimism surrounding Apple right now. It could go lower, but IMO not a whole lot lower. And I'm in no hurry - they are going to do something with all that cash.

And in no way would I ever recommend to anyone to follow my trade, nor would I claim genius if it pans out. It is only a calculated risk - not a prediction. But as I said, I'm done with this unless you start talking pricing and timing.

[trioderob]

[Bags]

Unless you are Warren Buffet the majority of investments should be low fee stock and bond index funds that are bought consistently and held for a very long time. Market timing and short term capital gains taxes are the worst thing for long term results. (Unless you are Rob)

Dean,

I have apple too. They are going to pay a growing dividend for many years to come. The drop in price has little to do with fundamentals and more to do with sentiment which means buy, buy, buy.

[Dypsisdean]

Aaron - there are also some new "trading taxes" supposedly to be announced soon. So yes - the fees, taxes, bookkeeping, and the time it takes makes short term trading costly. But its great entertainment, just like the track. And just like the track there is a crew there that are sure they have a system that works - and you always hear about the longshots they "nailed."

I don't know if I mentioned this already, but you should pick up Steve Jobs biography. It is a surprisingly enjoyable read - perhaps because we grew up in similar surroundings, with similar interests. And probably because I have enjoyed Apple products so much. But it really helps to understand the corporate culture he hopefully left behind, which was/is the key to any future success.

[Mandrew968]

Triode, no offense, but are you crazy? Just askin...

[redant]

Rob - no hard feelings, but I can't do this anymore. You want me to go into detail when this is your topic and you won't. And then you don't even pay attention to my details when I do.

"APPLE will be up 30% in a year" I didn't say that. I gave a range of a potential target I used to calculate a risk and reward. It could just as easily have been read to be 20% in 2 years. But the numbers work out to be about a third to a half of the decline, added to today's price.

"the smartest minds on the planet tend to not sell stocks that will gain 30% in a year" - you do realize that for every "smart" mind that sells a share, another "smart" mind buys it - and only time will tell who was smarter. I do realize it is a risky trade, but I weighed the potential reward (my target) against my maximum loss (my stop loss), and deemed it acceptable. My inflection points are primarily based on extreme sentiment - and there is a lot of pessimism surrounding Apple right now. It could go lower, but IMO not a whole lot lower. And I'm in no hurry - they are going to do something with all that cash.

And in no way would I ever recommend to anyone to follow my trade, nor would I claim genius if it pans out. It is only a calculated risk - not a prediction. But as I said, I'm done with this unless you start talking pricing and timing.

I have been a commodity trader for 25 years, a stock trader for about 5 years. In all my experience people like Dean are overall winners, people like Triode, not so much! Like Dean, I have not found a way to be a profitable short term trader on the market overall, only on individual stocks that have reacted inappropriately to some form of news/information.

Edited March 1, 2013 by redant

[trioderob]

Apple is down huge again today.

Dean is like 1% away from being stopped out and taking a 4% haircut.

one of the most basic stock trading rules is not to try and catch a "falling knife".

also: how can you know that a stock has "reacted inappropriately" ?????

ok that's it for me - you guys win.

I will watch this thread but no more input from me - I will just read and learn.

Edited March 1, 2013 by trioderob

[redant]

"also: how can you know that a stock has "reacted inappropriately" ?????"

There is no way of knowing anything is true in the market, just educated guesses. If anyone could "know" things for sure there would be the richest person in the world. Examples of educated guesses, Monster energy, a great company with huge growth and buy out potential went from 58 to 40 because some girl with a heart condition drank a couple in a row and died from a heart attack. While I do feel terrible for the family of this girl, Did I think the world of energy drinks was coming to an end. I did very well on this one and always look for others like it. The closed end junk bonds funds like HIX, HIS, HYT and a whole bunch more did a similar move in mid November do to the unknown events of the fiscal cliff, to me I saw nothing but a huge buying opportunity to which I still hold these and many like them. Of course there are many bad guesses i have made as well, fortunately the good has outweighed the bad as this is how I make a living.

Edited March 1, 2013 by redant

[paulgila]

Triode, no offense, but are you crazy? Just askin...

i think you missed this post,triode.

[Dypsisdean]

Apple is down huge again today.

Dean is like 1% away from being stopped out and taking a 4% haircut.

What haircut? Portfolio slightly up for the day. Up for the month. Up for the year. Up for the last 2 years. Hair's getting pretty long.

Performance is evaluated over long periods of time. Not trade by trade, day by day. Looks like I will be stopped out on this risky trade. But no risk, no reward. Even Babe Ruth swung and missed a few. But overall he did OK.

[Moose]

Apple is down huge again today.

Dean is like 1% away from being stopped out and taking a 4% haircut.

one of the most basic stock trading rules is not to try and catch a "falling knife".

also: how can you know that a stock has "reacted inappropriately" ?????

ok that's it for me - you guys win.

I will watch this thread but no more input from me - I will just read and learn.

[trioderob]

[Moose]

[trioderob]

the will be a time for buying Apple stocks.

now is not that time.

.

.

.

................clunk.

[trioderob]

so the issue of Italy and China have come into play- just as I had predicted -with the CHINESE market selling off hard last night.

lets see how far the sell-off here goes.........................

[Kim]

It is interesting to note that those with licenses, credentials, and experience would face harsh measures from their employer, FINRA, and the SEC for posting this kind of commentary on a forum.

[trioderob]

Rut 2000 leading down......

Edited March 4, 2013 by trioderob

[trioderob]

FED CHANGED THE GAME TODAY:

read and learn:

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/51040874

I am outta here - have fun folks !

[Dypsisdean]

so the issue of Italy and China have come into play- just as I had predicted -with the CHINESE market selling off hard last night.

lets see how far the sell-off here goes.........................

Not very - another up day.

[trioderob]

yes- it helps when the vice chair states mid day that they are going to run the printing press 24/7.

hope you share with me your next "inflection point"

[Dypsisdean]

yes- it helps when the vice chair states mid day that they are going to run the printing press 24/7.

hope you share with me your next "inflection point"

OK

Bailed before my AAPL stop on Fri - bad price action. Took an acceptable -3% loss.

Entered another AAPL position near the close today - lucked out and grabbed the bottom tick at 419. Still trying to catch a bounce. This is the third position in 3 weeks. First one was a wash. Still a risky trade, so I'll keep a very tight stop on this one as well.

[trioderob]

Dean-

What would have had to be different today -for you to have shorted Apple -and bought puts instead ?

what would you have needed to see ????

[Dypsisdean]

Dean-

What would have had to be different today -for you to have shorted Apple -and bought puts instead ?

what would you have needed to see ????

I am not a momentum player per se. I would never short a stock after a 40% "straight line" decline - especially not one so large, with so much cash, and still making big money every quarter. In fact, I think it's time the shorts get squeezed real good here soon.

[trioderob]

I think that I understand what you are saying.

its gone down so much that the odds are that it wont go down any more..........

ballsy move - you are a brave trader.

Edited March 5, 2013 by trioderob

[Moose]

[Dypsisdean]

I think that I understand what you are saying.

its gone down so much that the odds are that it wont go down any more..........

ballsy move - you are a brave trader.

Trying to limit the downside risk, while attempting to catch a juicy longer term upside move. i can afford a few 3% losses if I can grab one 20-30% gain - and maybe more with dividends and some good earnings.

[redant]

At new highs today trioderob, so what now, my money earns .00000000000000001% in my money market account and my children need food on the table.

[Vincent]

Happy Days are here again! QE some more!