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Cooler than normal fall for Central Florida


palmsOrl

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So far, we have had a cooler than normal autumn season here in Central Florida, especially the last 3-4 weeks. Temperatures have consistently been below average to average some days with periods of overcast weather ever since Hurricane Sandy passed to our east. I haven't had the air on for almost a month except for a day or two, and I am the type that keeps the thermostat at 70F year-round. I remember many years here where November was mostly 81-85F during the day and 60-65F at night.

Temperatures and clouds have been perfectly to my liking but I have worried about my palm collection, to which I have added substantially in the last few months (ALL very tropical of course). I usually do not put the real tropicals like Cyrtostachys in the greenhouse until roughly Thanksgiving when we have our first real cold front with temperatures below 45F for so. Except for the few nights we have had that were in the 40s so far this fall, all the new palms have sat out despite an increasing number of days with only a few hours above 70F. Today's high temperature was 58F, very typical of a day this time of year up north. Oh and also the rain that was so plentiful (and very welcome) all summer is gone.

All the palms and other plants (including the new ones) are still looking good except a new Burretikentia veillardii which I discovered had crown rot and spear pull. I treated it with Phyton but I doubt it will survive, it looks bad.

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I'm only hoping that we're at the bottom of the temperature trough and the trend will be upward for the winter. The forecast was for below normal temps for the winter months due to El Nino, but with El Nino not really develping, I guess it's going to be a wait and see kind of year. I was supposed to go up to Pennsylvania for a few weeks around Christmas/New Year's, but now I think I'm glad I'll be here in case we get clobbered. Did you get any substantial rain from Sandy? I had virtually nothing here in Doctor Phillips.

I've had some palms come back from looking pretty dead before. Don't give up hope.

Jason

Skell's Bells

 

 

Inland Central Florida, 28N, 81W. Humid-subtropical climate with occasional frosts and freezes. Zone 9b.

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One rain since Oct 2, which was just shy of half-inch (on Nov 7) and yes, cool cloudy weather here in Tampa Bay although yesterday the sun came out for a whopping 68F. Very chilly, persistently so. I wonder if this pattern is setting up? If so, it could spell trouble come Dec when those nor'easters really get going and funnel polar air down our way. i know last year was phenominal, but would it not be sweet to have again? I mean, c'mon, it was REAL sweet with the warmth.

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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I just commented my wife the other day that this November was running noticably cooler than normal, and that I hope this is not a precurser to a signifigantly colder than normal winter. After the January and December 2010 winters, I dread having another one so soon. On balance, last winter wasn't too bad for my garden. Tender species palms and tropicals, for the most part and with some exceptions, received only cosmetic damage.

Out of curiosity, I decided to go into my local FAWN (Florida Automated Weather Network) historical database report generator and compare the first 22 days of November 2011 to the same period this November. Since I live eight miles (south) from the Sebring, Florida, FAWN weather station, I used their temperature data.

I found that November 2012 (first 22 days of month) averaged about 5 degrees colder than the first 22 days of November 2011.

I also checked the Avalon (just west of Orlando) FAWN weather station's data base for the same stats, and this site also averaged about 5 degrees colder during the same time periods.

The temperature stats for the Sebring, Florida, FAWN location is as follows:

Average temperature Nov. 1st thru 22nd: 69.08 degrees F.(2011) vs. 64.63 degrees F (2012)

Minimum temperature: 49.33 degress F (2011) vs. 46.90 F(2012)

Maximum temperature: 89.38 degrees F (2011) vs. 85.38 F (2012)

The temperature stats for the Avalon, Florida, FAWN location is as follows:

Average temperature Nov. 1st thru 22nd: 67.37 degrees F.(2011) vs. 62.89 degrees F (2012)

Minimum temperature: 42.60 degress F (2011) vs. 42.34 F(2012)

Maximum temperature: 87.06 degrees F (2011) vs. 84.16 F (2012)

I recall not so many years ago we had a colder than normal fall period but a fairly mild (above normal) winter period. I'm hoping that will be the case this winter.

Below is a link to the FAWN website for anyone that may want to check current and historic temperatures near their central Florida area:

http://fawn.ifas.ufl.edu/

Mad about palms

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A very chilly start this morning as it hit 40.3F on my backyard therm. Surprised it cooled so much after a pleasant 72F yesterday. The air is very dry so I am sure that helped the temp tumble. Interesting that Nov 2011 was so much warmer. I believe they are trending up in the winter prediction as El Nino is not developing, but this chilly and DRY DRY DRY Nov is not starting out very warm at all. I believe there is a negative AO. Any thoughts...hmmmmm

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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Yep! The cold air plunged down the west side of the pennisula last night/early morning. So at any given latitude, it was running much colder on the west coast vs. the east coast.

I was tracking the temperatures this morning on FAWN. Sebring's official low (FAWN) was 50 degrees, while over in Arcadia was 41 degrees, and North Port was 36 degrees!

Mad about palms

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Walt, I recall November of 2008 as being much cooler than normal, even cooler than this year with several mornings in the upper 30s and many in the 40s. By the end of that November, many of the deciduous trees had fully turned the colors that in most years slowly change colors as December and January progress. The trees have not changed colors yet this year. The last few nights have continued to be chilly with lows in the 40s and I finally put the tender potted tropicals in the greenhouse this evening. The Burretikentia has died and it is my goal to ensure that is the only fatality from this coming winter.

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Walt, I recall November of 2008 as being much cooler than normal, even cooler than this year with several mornings in the upper 30s and many in the 40s. By the end of that November, many of the deciduous trees had fully turned the colors that in most years slowly change colors as December and January progress. The trees have not changed colors yet this year. The last few nights have continued to be chilly with lows in the 40s and I finally put the tender potted tropicals in the greenhouse this evening. The Burretikentia has died and it is my goal to ensure that is the only fatality from this coming winter.

Your are correct about November 2008 being colder than this November (so far thru the 25th), but it's not that much difference statistically.

I just went back into the FAWN historical database for November of 2008 for Avalon and Sebring and here's the statistics compared to November 2012 (so far):

Avalon Nov. 2008/2012 Avg. Temp: 61.68/62.03

Sebring Nov. 2008/2012 Avg. Temp: 63.53/63.94

Avalon Nov. 2008/2012 Min. Temp: 35.23/36.52

Sebring Nov. 2008/2012 Max. Temp. 89.78/85.38

However, the records show December of 2008 averaged warmer than November of 2008 for both Avalon and Sebring.

Avalon Dec. 2008 Avg. Temp: 62.64

Sebring Dec.2008 Avg. Temp: 64.29

Avalon Dec. 2008 Min. Temp: 35.42

Sebring Dec. 2008 Min. Temp: 38.79

January of 2009 as follows:

Avalon Jan. 2009 Avg. Temp: 57.7

Sebring Jan. 2009 Avg. Temp. 59.62

Avalon Jan. 2009 Min. Temp. 27.08

Sebring Jan. 2009 Min. Temp. 29.65

February of 2009 averaged warmer than January.

Mad about palms

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I hope the trend will change soon or we are going to be in big trouble this winter. Rain would also be welcome, last rain here was Oct. 4th.

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I just checked the AO and it is neutral and predicted to stay that way for the next 3 weeks. The trend thru mid Dec is slightly above average, but little rainfall. We are beginning a serious drought. It is VERY dry. Accuweather cautions that due to several factors, winter could get real cold, for a while at least. Hmm, we shall see. Fingers crossed. As usual! :indifferent:

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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By December 1st, the AO is forecast to be near -4!!! The NAO however is forecast to be near neutral. Even if the AO is negative, you need a negative NAO to bring the cold to Florida. January 2010 was a perfect storm of sorts.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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I have noticed a few odd things happening in my garden. My amaryllis are blooming - usually a first spring bloomer. My floss silk tree is in full bloom with all of its leaves still on. Another odd thing. I have begonias blooming that don't usually bloom this time of year. I also have some orchids blooming that are out of season. My cypress trees are bare of leaves - not normal at this early date.

I don't know what is coming or happening. I also noticed my horses got their winter coats about 3 weeks early and are now sweating because the days are warm. I have not been putting their blankets on at night, even though it has been in the 50's. Too much coat this year.

Palmmermaid

Kitty Philips

West Palm Beach, FL

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I have noticed it is very very very dry! TOTAL precip since Oct2nd is less than an inch. Nothing predicted for the next week. Ouch! If the AO is -4, there is not any cold air coming down with it. The 3 week forecast shows nothing unusual even in the upper midwest. Keep that NAO neutral thru late Feb I say.

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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Keep that NAO neutral thru late Feb I say

The odds of that are as high as me winning the Powerball lottery this week. The NAO has been mostly negative since September so if the trend continues, buckle up for a wild ride.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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