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trioderob

I think the stock market is about to crash....

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trioderob

Kim-

a crash does not need to be a high VIX event.

what we may be in for is more of a "slow-motion train wreck"

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Dypsisdean

Kim-

a crash does not need to be a high VIX event.

what we may be in for is more of a "slow-motion train wreck"

Really Rob - I'm not trying to "bust your chops." But is "crash" off the table now in favor of "slow motion train wreck?" If so, what are you defining as a "slow motion train wreck."

The market deals in numbers like points, percentages, and time frames - not in meaningless terms like "about to crash," and "slow motion train wreck," - how about something like the S&P down -20% over the next 3 months, or down another 5% by year's end - something that could be accurately evaluated.

It sounds to me as if you may now be predicting a bear market (something like -20% over 2-3 months or more) - but I'm not sure. You may be predicting a correction (generally recognized by a decline of 10% or more from a high) - but the market was nearly in correction territory when you made your "call." And you seem to have taken a "crash" off the table. All these terms have somewhat agreed upon definitions. But I've never heard "slow motion train wreck."

So why don't you give us a real prediction. Where will the DOW be at the start the new year - Jan. 1, 2013???

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trioderob

only a "shuck and jive artist" would come on this forum and make a prediction like:

"the market will be down 7% in the next 3 weeks"

cant be done - except by liars......

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Dypsisdean

only a "shuck and jive artist" would come on this forum and make a prediction like:

"the market will be down 7% in the next 3 weeks"

cant be done - except by liars......

But "I think the stock market is about to crash..... it's going down hard" is a reasonable prediction?

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Moose

Get ready to buy some undervalued assets.

There are tons of undervalued palms around. :wub:

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Dypsisdean

DEAN-

take a look at this and if you dont understand it i will explain on Friday.

http://www.decisionp...AC/CADBURY.html

Now that's what I am referring to. That is a prediction.

S.&P. 500: DOWN 0.5% OR MORE TO 1367 OR LESS AT NOV. 23rd CLOSE

S.&P. 500: DOWN 0.9% OR MORE TO 1362 OR LESS AT NOV. 30th CLOSE

We can easily check the S&P on those days and see if it was right or wrong. But the market fluctuates up or down by .5% almost every week. So not much news, crash, or train wreck there.

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Bags

If you know it is going to crash then you should get rich off of it. The problem it is not a prediction it is a guess. Just buy good companies and if it does crash buy more. Five years from now a crash will not matter. The US stock market has never lost money in any 15 year period. Ever.

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LJG

So far, it's a correction, and a minor one at that. Crashes are sudden and violent, like October 19, 1987, down 20% in a single day.

IMO the massive bank liquidations and unwidings in 2008 and 2009, and the current massive cash positions make a true crash unlikely. Main Street never went back into the market, nor did the banks, who's going to do all the selling? I'm not sensing the necessary panic required to produce a crash.

Not a crash but certainly a continual spiral until the macro economical challenges lessen and the "fiscal cliff" is addressed. However it is my belief that many equity fund and institutional advisors will begin to either sell stocks or take more defensive positions. So I 'guess' a drop even more.

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trioderob

how many more days of darkness until you see the light ????

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trioderob

we may have a nice double bottom here- maybe a deal has been cut

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Kim

So far, it's a correction, and a minor one at that. Crashes are sudden and violent, like October 19, 1987, down 20% in a single day.

IMO the massive bank liquidations and unwidings in 2008 and 2009, and the current massive cash positions make a true crash unlikely. Main Street never went back into the market, nor did the banks, who's going to do all the selling? I'm not sensing the necessary panic required to produce a crash.

Not a crash but certainly a continual spiral until the macro economical challenges lessen and the "fiscal cliff" is addressed. However it is my belief that many equity fund and institutional advisors will begin to either sell stocks or take more defensive positions. So I 'guess' a drop even more.

"...will begin to ... sell"? The selling began November 7 to lock in gains at lower tax rates. Higher rates are a given. New positions are being established now at lower cost basis. 90 days into the second term administration the market historically sees a lift. Will it happen again? While the global economic picture is dragging, domestic numbers are slightly positive. Clinging to the most recent economic disaster is not a sound investment strategy.

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Mandrew968

What we need is some good ole' currency manipulation. :rolleyes: I can get off topic in the "Off topic" forum, right?

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Stevetoad

What we need is some good ole' currency manipulation. :rolleyes: I can get off topic in the "Off topic" forum, right?

i got a link ill send you andrew. i just read it and it was written in 2005. good stuff and if nothing else will make you start questioning everything.

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trioderob

ok ARMS index hit 2 - we are now oversold- look for a nice bounce

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MattyB

Oh great, that's all I need, is more reason to PANICCCCCCC!!!!!!!! :yay: :yay: :yay::drool: :drool: :drool: (that's panic drool)

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paulgila

crash or trainwreck???

now i'm not sure, please tell me what to do,rob!

:floor:

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Dypsisdean

crash or trainwreck???

now i'm not sure, please tell me what to do,rob!

:floor:

I'm equally confused. The first day of the slow motion train wreck had the S&P up, and now it's a buying opportunity???

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DoomsDave

Just eat some gulash and worry tomorrow . . .

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Moose

we may have a nice double bottom here- maybe a deal has been cut

What does Jennifer Lopez got to do with the stock market? :blink:

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DoomsDave

we may have a nice double bottom here- maybe a deal has been cut

What does Jennifer Lopez got to do with the stock market? :blink:

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trioderob

"Posted 16 November 2012 - 11:59 AM "ok ARMS index hit 2 - we are now oversold- look for a nice bounce"

nailed it

(this thread is now over - goodbye)

Edited by trioderob

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Kim

Next up: "Mystery investor corners the Jubaea market in San DIego"

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DoomsDave

Next up: "Mystery investor corners the Jubaea market in San DIego"

That actually happened a while back, in 2001, I think. Seriously. A church that ran a winery up in Grass Valley bought everyone's Jubes, for a fortune.

Sort of wondering what they're doing these days. They made good wine, too.

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Dypsisdean

"Posted 16 November 2012 - 11:59 AM "ok ARMS index hit 2 - we are now oversold- look for a nice bounce"

nailed it

(this thread is now over - goodbye)

Wait a minute, you don't get out of here that easily. :)

Your predictions: Day one - crash. Day two - slow train wreck. Day Three - nice bounce. The market could have crashed today instead, bounced on Wed, and drifted lower over the next month, and you could say you nailed it on all counts.

I nailed it too. But just like your "look for a nice bounce," I didn't really specify when or how much.

Now I'll make a similar open ended prediction - I predict that sometime soon the market will have a few days when it is up a similar amount.

Bingo - but it was not any great insight, it was just the way it was worded. Like you, I could have claimed victory with a dozen different scenarios.

All I am trying to do is point out that without a number and a time frame a prediction about the stock market is useless. So let's wait and see how the only legitimate predictions you referenced turn out. So far not so good.

S.&P. 500: DOWN 0.5% OR MORE TO 1367 OR LESS AT NOV. 23rd CLOSE

S.&P. 500: DOWN 0.9% OR MORE TO 1362 OR LESS AT NOV. 30th CLOSE

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trioderob

"All I am trying to do is point out that without a number and a time frame a prediction about the stock market is useless"

not if you made money.its not

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redant

"Posted 16 November 2012 - 11:59 AM "ok ARMS index hit 2 - we are now oversold- look for a nice bounce"

nailed it

(this thread is now over - goodbye)

Well you should be rich by now with this type of accuracy. I tthink Birkshire Hathaway is looking to groom a new leader.

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trioderob

it has to be black or white ?

if you are not making billions you are making nothing..........?

thats silly talk.

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Dypsisdean

"All I am trying to do is point out that without a number and a time frame a prediction about the stock market is useless"

not if you made money.its not

It is possible to make money on any given day in the market by flipping a coin. Does that mean your coin is a useful indicator?

Are you telling me you made money during the last three market days? If so, on which call? The crash call? The train wreck call? Or the bounce call? Sorry, and with all due respect, but until you show me your completed buy and sell orders, I won't buy it.

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trioderob

ok - fine

call me a liar

I did not make penny in the last 4 days -

you have been fighting me every step of the way on this thread - you win.

thread closed !

Edited by trioderob

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Dypsisdean

ok - fine

call me a liar

I did not make penny in the last 4 days -

you have been fighting me every step of the way on this thread - you win.

thread closed !

Why are you being so defensive? I have never been fighting you, only trying to clarify your statements. In my last post I was trying to clarify if you were claiming to have made money, because your wording was unclear.

If you did, congratulations. And I'll take back every doubt I had. But I know how difficult, and how nimbly and perfectly timed your trades would of been, to have made any money over that three day stretch. And you probably had to be trading in the early extended hours market, because of the big moves before the open on those days - very sophisticated.

How about just telling me what vehicle you used, when you bought or went short, and when you sold or covered? And what kind of percentage gain did you realize? I will be the first to give you any well deserved credit.

BTW - I did not mean to imply you are a liar. Only that I would need to see the trade history from anyone, including the Pope, if they claimed a profit based on such rapidly changing predictions - it was nothing personal. Call me skeptical if you like.

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Mr Cycad

I find it really interesting the optimism bias all you American's have! It's quite tragic. But I think that goes for pretty much everyone really... story of the world!

So the S&P500 was up last night... almost 2% putting it just above its 200 day trading average again... but it did this in June too, and then rallied - will it again?! :hmm:

The currently market action is totally misleading. And besides, it isn't really a market anymore - it's been corrupted by you know who (fund manager of the world)! <_<

The proof will be in the pudding!

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Dypsisdean

I find it really interesting the optimism bias all you American's have! It's quite tragic. But I think that goes for pretty much everyone really... story of the world!

So the S&P500 was up last night... almost 2% putting it just above its 200 day trading average again... but it did this in June too, and then rallied - will it again?! :hmm:

The currently market action is totally misleading. And besides, it isn't really a market anymore - it's been corrupted by you know who (fund manager of the world)! <_<

The proof will be in the pudding!

And Kurt, what is really interesting is that without both optimists and pessimists, without buyers and sellers, there wouldn't even be a market. So in the simplest terms, every time someone is convinced it's time to sell, there is someone else equally convinced it's time to buy - and visa versa.

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Mr Cycad

And Kurt, what is really interesting is that without both optimists and pessimists, without buyers and sellers, there wouldn't even be a market. So in the simplest terms, every time someone is convinced it's time to sell, there is someone else equally convinced it's time to buy - and visa versa.

Exactly Discordian at its finest! ;)

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Mandrew968

Rob, don't take Dean's attacks as personal(maybe 'attacks' is not the best word). I had a few determined debates with him and it may seem like he's getting under your skin, but that's just his charming self. He seems to be a smart guy and is also engaging--we are lucky to have someone like him to keep us in line and to challenge our own opinions with a competent opinion of his own. Thanks Dean, for what you do.

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Halekuma

Take all of your liquid assets, cash in all your bonds and stock values (whats left), and invest in real estate. Then purchase cycads and watch your investments grow. Thats what I'm doing and at least I see real tangeable value and not some decomposing paper and ink pipeline to corrupt currency scammers and government feedbag brokers.

Amen, best thing to do now is take all the liquid and invest in real state... but not in spain!!!

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trioderob

here is one thing about "calls" to keep in mind.

lets say a sportscaster makes a call where he states at the start of the season that the Browns are going to win the Superbowl.

Vegas has them as 100/1 longshots.

if he is wrong - so what ?

had he called the giants or packers to win and they do - who cares they were the top picks by everyone.

but if the Browns win he can live off that call for years.

he will always be known as the guy who picked the Browns to win and he was right.

same thing with the market - you see all kinds of calls because it worth the risk

make a prediction that the market will drop 17% in a month and if it comes true you are famous.

if it does not come true you never come back and explain why you were wrong.

thats why predictions are not worth anything

all that matters is being able to understand what the market itself is saying at the moment and changing on a dime if you were wrong.

its the one area that flip flopping can be good.

Edited by trioderob

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