I think the stock market is about to crash....

[trioderob]

got a bad feeling its going down hard.

[Hammer]

Being one to look for silver linings...the good news if it crashes, it will be a great time to buy!!!

[Mr Cycad]

ya think?!

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5Egspc+interactive#symbol=%5Egspc;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

[Mandrew968]

"Yes, but what does it all mean, Basil??"

[John Case]

From a technical view, the failure of the S&P to break through the triple top formation is certainly negative, from a fundamental point of view, it is clear that people are moving their assets out of the market prior to the potential for higher taxes in 2013.

[Jeff Searle]

Yea...much more higher taxes. Get use to it!

[redant]

So does this guy.. http://www.cnbc.com/id/49802535 but then again he just about always thinks it's going to crash.

Personally I do think there are way to many hurdles both technical and fundamental for the market to make any new highs. Even great dividend paying stocks are getting beat up because of the lack of clarity from our great leaders,

[Mandrew968]

Yea...much more higher taxes. Get use to it!

Yeah, I'm no rich guy, but ask any accountant and they will speculate middle class taxes, along with the rich will go up an average of 3 to 4k a year, per person. That and I bet we will see another deficit...

[John Case]

So does this guy.. http://www.cnbc.com/id/49802535 but then again he just about always thinks it's going to crash.

Personally I do think there are way to many hurdles both technical and fundamental for the market to make any new highs. Even great dividend paying stocks are getting beat up because of the lack of clarity from our great leaders,

Even Dr. Doom is right pnce in a while....

[John Case]

Yea...much more higher taxes. Get use to it!

Yeah, I'm no rich guy, but ask any accountant and they will speculate middle class taxes, along with the rich will go up an average of 3 to 4k a year, per person. That and I bet we will see another deficit...

The deficit has nothing to do with taxes, unfortunately....

[redant]

I will admit I have no idea where people who pull out the market plan on putting that $$$. Everything just seems to suck.

[Mandrew968]

Yea...much more higher taxes. Get use to it!

Yeah, I'm no rich guy, but ask any accountant and they will speculate middle class taxes, along with the rich will go up an average of 3 to 4k a year, per person. That and I bet we will see another deficit...

The deficit has nothing to do with taxes, unfortunately....

Other than that they are both something to complain about--a deficit gives the government a reason to raise taxes, but it doesn't directly correlate to a surplus(though in my opinion, it should).

[mike2748]

If we had a surplus would they still raise taxes?

[John Case]

If we had a surplus would they still raise taxes?

Probably not, but who knows with this bunch of clowns.....

[Mandrew968]

If we had a surplus would they still raise taxes?

Probably not, but who knows with this bunch of clowns.....

I can't believe it, but is anybody happy with our "bunch of clowns"? This is way beyond a political left versus right IMO. Constitutional Convention, anyone???

[trioderob]

lets not get too political or the mods will kill the thread...

[bgl]

Very perceptive!

[DoomsDave]

Get ready to buy some undervalued assets.

[Vincent]

They don't call a constitutional convention a "Con Con" for nothing. Just wait for QE4. QE3 was not enough juice. QE4 will drive indexes through the roof. Great time to buy. Bernake is going to take one for the team. The hangover is hyperinflation. The fed has already made it perfectly clear that they will do whatever it takes to create inflation and monetize the debt. Somebody will ring the dinner bell soon. Not that QE4 will ultimately work, but what wal street wants, wall street gets. It is quite telling that the candidates raised over $2 billion for this election cycle. Did that big money come from the little guy? On the positive side, hyperinflation means that an encephalartos gratus with 3" caudex will be $800.

[Kim]

This is why I like hedges.

[trioderob]

wow - what a price rejection.

[Mr Cycad]

Hyperinflation is a pipe dream! At least in the short term in the U.S. (maybe not so for Greece?). And QE is not going to do anything (and there’s no way the zombie money printing etc. can cause inflation with the current deleveraging – liquidity injections since 2008 have failed to increase US money supply (go figure)). Debt deflation is the problem right now, everywhere. Everyone has lived (most of us) through the biggest credit bubble in history. It should be quite clear that it hasn’t fully deflated yet. Until it has, there will be no ‘economic’ recovery. Heck, the IMF is saying that European banks need to sell 4.5 trillion in assets through 2013 – explain how could that create inflation??? Sit back and enjoy the ride… 2013 is going to be a hell of a year!

[Hammer]

English please...

[Vincent]

The dollar has become a digital currency not worth the paper it is not printed on, just like all fiat currencies eventualy wind up as. Although the velocity of money is almost non existent, the banks and corporations are sitting on untold billions. M3 is not disclosed and there is no chance of an audit of the federal reserve. The fed continues to bail by printing, not just in the US but in the EU. Deflation? Possible. Look for QE4!

[Mr Cycad]

English please...

Ignorance is bliss

[LJG]

Hyperinflation is a pipe dream! At least in the short term in the U.S. (maybe not so for Greece?). And QE is not going to do anything (and there’s no way the zombie money printing etc. can cause inflation with the current deleveraging – liquidity injections since 2008 have failed to increase US money supply (go figure)). Debt deflation is the problem right now, everywhere. Everyone has lived (most of us) through the biggest credit bubble in history. It should be quite clear that it hasn’t fully deflated yet. Until it has, there will be no ‘economic’ recovery. Heck, the IMF is saying that European banks need to sell 4.5 trillion in assets through 2013 – explain how could that create inflation??? Sit back and enjoy the ride… 2013 is going to be a hell of a year!

Agreed. The fact it hasn't happened yet tells you a lot about Wall Street. I think I will stick to tax exempt bonds and structured notes plus ride some reverse indexes stocks like SOXS for a while

[Hammer]

Sit back and enjoy the ride… 2013 is going to be a hell of a year!

I guess I should clarify my question...you are talking in very macro terms. Curious what you think 2013 portends for the average, ordinary individuals.

[Dypsisdean]

"I think the stock market is about to crash...."

Nice open ended prediction.

What's a "crash?" -10%, -20%, -30%, -40%, -50% ???

And when? This week?, This month?, This Quarter, This Year???

And what index? The Dow?, The S&P?, The NASDAQ?

I think a torrential rain is coming.

[trioderob]

no dypsisdean-

i made a good "real time' stock market call right there

[pogobob]

Take all of your liquid assets, cash in all your bonds and stock values (whats left), and invest in real estate. Then purchase cycads and watch your investments grow. Thats what I'm doing and at least I see real tangeable value and not some decomposing paper and ink pipeline to corrupt currency scammers and government feedbag brokers.

[Vincent]

Anything of real value. That is why they call it Real Estate. The more money they print, the less it becomes worth. And believe me, they are printing money! So, when it takes more dollars to buy something, what do you get? Inflation. Having inflation is not always indicative of demand. Rather, it is a sign of a weak currency. Think Weimer Republic; it did not take less marks to buy a loaf of bread, it took more (an entire wheel barrel at one point).

An inflationary scenario is my opinion. The government can monetize its debt this way.Wall Street will have its rally. I am not an economist (but I did date one). I am not even smart enough to know how to post a photo on palmtalk (thanks again Moose). But I am just functional enough to look at USA Today style pie charts and draw a conclusion.

[Dypsisdean]

no dypsisdean-

i made a good "real time' stock market call right there

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

S&P closed on Nov 12 when you made your call 1380

Closing today after a big drop - around 1354

That's a drop of a little under 2%

Is that the "crash" you were talking about?

[trioderob]

dude-

we just dropped 1 1/2 % today alone - am I wrong ????????

ok - will stop talking....you teach me about the stock market.

Edited November 14, 2012 by trioderob

[Dypsisdean]

dude-

we just dropped 1 1/2 % today alone - am I wrong ????????

I don't know Rob. That's why I asked what you call a "crash." (Which you didn't answer.) I also asked what time frame you were discussing. (Which you didn't answer.) Without those qualification (before today's drop) it's wasn't much of a "call."

I don't call -2% a crash. And neither does Wikipedia. "There is no numerically specific definition of a stock market crash but the term commonly applies to steep double-digit percentage losses in a stock market index over a period of several days."

Now, if you would have answered that the market will be down 2% in the next two days, then you would have been right, and it would have been a great call. You could still be right, but you have still not yet defined your terms. And defining them after the fact is "cheating." Now I'll make a similar open ended prediction - I predict that sometime soon the market will have a few days when it is up a similar amount. (I'll define my terms after I see what happens.)

[redant]

dude-

we just dropped 1 1/2 % today alone - am I wrong ????????

ok - will stop talking....you teach me about the stock market.

Sorry but I refuse to take my market predictions from someone who still uses the term "dude".

[Mr Cycad]

Well, S&P500 yesterday broke through the most watched line in the world - the 200-day moving average. Is this what you are referring to trioderob?

Things could indeed get ugly from here...

Edited November 15, 2012 by Mr Cycad

[Alicehunter2000]

I agree with the purchase of tangible assets. Little gold, little silver, some real estate (home, farmland and investment), commodities, got plenty of liquor to barter. Got guns and fishing gear. Got chickens in the country laying eggs. Not going to hold a lot of cash, lock in low mortgage rates now.

There is no velocity to the piles of cash that the fed has pumped into the banks etc.....if the economy starts to pick up, I don't believe they can pull the cash out fast enough to prevent rapid inflation.

Just my opinion....if everything turns out peaches and cream.....I'll eat the chickens, drink the liquor, enjoy the properties, keep the silver and gold as an emergency fund and go hunting and fishing. I'm out of the market unless it crashes big...then I might dip my toe back in.

[redant]

One thing interesting about the present correction is the money doesn't seem to be flowing anywhere. Makes me believe it's presently a better buying opportunity then sell regardless of all the uncertainties ahead.

[Kim]

So far, it's a correction, and a minor one at that. Crashes are sudden and violent, like October 19, 1987, down 20% in a single day.

IMO the massive bank liquidations and unwidings in 2008 and 2009, and the current massive cash positions make a true crash unlikely. Main Street never went back into the market, nor did the banks, who's going to do all the selling? I'm not sensing the necessary panic required to produce a crash.

[MattyB]

Not enough panic for ya huh?

How about NOW!!!!!!!!! after you seee thisssss!!!!!!!!! :yay: :yay:

I rest my case